Thursday Forecast

44 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
A warm front approaches today with some cloudiness at times, though high pressure to the northeast of the region supplies enough dry air to hold the thickest clouds at bay and allow for some sunshine as well. This warm front will cross the region early Friday and may produce an episode of freezing rain and sleet in northern MA and southern NH, so there could be some locally slippery travel for the Friday morning rush. Behind this it turns a little milder and only a few rain showers are expected behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which will pass through Friday evening, followed by an area of high pressure and fair weather for Saturday. And then we get a more important storm system to impact the region later Sunday through Monday. The track of the parent low will be into the Great Lakes, but a bit of a block in the atmosphere will likely force the energy more eastward and a frontal boundary will push into but never really through southern New England, likely becoming a running board for the development of new low pressure, which never really gets going until its offshore, but a system that will largely produce rain may end as some freezing and/or frozen precipitation for parts of the region sometime on Monday, depending on the speed of evolution and exact track, the details of which still need to be ironed out over the next few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief freezing rain/sleet (maybe even snow mix) possible southern NH and northern MA morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Lows 35-42. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to ice/snow especially northern areas later in the day. Highs 38-45. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
There is a little lower than average confidence in this forecast, but the current idea is that low pressure departs December 31 leaving colder air and a few snow showers behind, and that the northern and southern jet streams stay separated with another southern jet stream system passing south of the region late January 1 or January 2 and a northern stream system just bringing a few snow showers and additional cold air. This is a slightly different scenario than the one I described on yesterday’s update. Bottom line: It may change again so don’t put too much stock in it at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
Overall theme, cold and dry, due to domination by the polar jet stream and suppression of the southern jet stream. Again, not a high confidence outlook.

44 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I ate so much yesterday, that I feel like shit today!
    One consolation, the roads were a ghost town. What is usually a 20-30 minute commute,
    was only 12 minutes this morning.

    Southern California is getting rocked today. When it is over, I’d love to see a photo of
    Las Angeles with the San Gabriels in the background as the snow there will be
    measured in feet.

    It would look something like this only more dramatic, I believe.

    https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fraregoldnuggets.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsangabrielmountains.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fraregoldnuggets.com%2F%3Fp%3D4646&docid=lX4Wlbam0V3lEM&tbnid=NqXCgVtnJLyK_M%3A&vet=10ahUKEwipi5uottPmAhXYGs0KHSI1C5YQMwisASgnMCc..i&w=750&h=384&safe=strict&bih=775&biw=1536&q=san%20gabriel%20mountains&ved=0ahUKEwipi5uottPmAhXYGs0KHSI1C5YQMwisASgnMCc&iact=mrc&uact=8#h=384&imgdii=X-M-TI8CsL9fEM:&vet=10ahUKEwipi5uottPmAhXYGs0KHSI1C5YQMwisASgnMCc..i&w=750

    1. I’m working on getting ice off of the deck. It is north facing so all has yet to melt. We have everyone here Saturday for belated whole family Christmas due to illness and may well spend some of the day sitting out by the fire.

  5. Thanks TK
    This day in the weather history the Boxing Day Blizzard or as some have called it the Post Christmas Blizzard began and last into the 27th. This began a stretch of a six week snow blitz that would end in early February. During that snow blitz BDL had its snowiest January on record with 54.3 inches of snow. The season ended up the second snowiest on record behind the 95-96 winter. I remember during the snow blitz a lot of roof collapses happening in CT and snow rakes became a hot ticket item at stores to remove the snow from your roof.

    1. Thanks you JJ. Was it 2010? 11? I remember the roof do the indoor arena in Ashland where my oldest began riding collapsing. I also remember my son and son in law spending four plus hours shoveling one of our roofs.

  6. The Boxing Day Blizzard was 2010. The other thing I remember with the snow blitz which started with that storm was very little melting and snow banks getting higher and higher with each storm. Some roads here were so narrow you hoped no one was coming down the other side of the street and I remember having to pull the car out a good distances into the road when leaving my Uncle’s as the snow banks were so high you could not see the oncoming traffic unless you did that.

  7. When I listed my top storms of this decade the post Christmas Blizzard was one of them. I am sure all of you have memorable storms of this decade.

  8. Thanks, TK…
    Happy Boxing Day, Fourth Day of Hanukkah and Second Day of Christmas!
    I hope everyone’s day and week has been memorable and fun!!!

    No shave day today! Time to kick back a bit and play with my toys!!!

    Boxing Day blizzard, 2010…17.3″ here in the Silver City; 18.2″ in Boston…

    1. Wonder why I cannot remember that?? Seems I would remember
      a foot and a half snow storm????? Oh well, My brain is aging rapidly. 🙂

      1. If it wasn’t for Jimmy and CF this day would have gone by without a thought of a past blizzard. For one thing, we didn’t have this wonderful WHW blog to discuss weather other than that horrible troll-infested WBZ blog. Does that trash even still exist? Hope not.

        Winter 2010-11 = 81.0”

        I do remember that was quite a winter.

    2. Although I may be confusing it with another storm re south shore, I seem to recall there was tremendous damage along the south shore

  9. JPD. I went back in The blog, but comments were off. TK did have a few posts re storm

    And it was New Year’s Day right after when the temp was more like spring. My sister in law came to visit and we drove to Humarock for a beach walk. I recall the tremendous damage we saw through Marshfield.

    1. TK was probably the only one here at the time. You guys have some really good memories. Sounds like typical NE weather, cold then warm a few days later.

      After thinking about it, I do now recall the snow but not the sudden warmth.

  13. Thanks TK!

    Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas! Joshua, much belated but my deepest condolences on the loss of your mother.

    I’m in Wrentham with family for a couple days. Just a light icy coating of snow in the well-shaded backyard here. I’ve yet to see a true snow-covered ground this season so far… maybe in a few weeks when I’m back up in Boston for AMS? The next few weeks look up and down to me, but I don’t see much support for sustained cold in the East. We’ve already (somewhat quietly) erased most of the negative temperature departure for December. We may finish the job in the next couple days. The month will likely average right near normal, with above normal snow thanks to the snowy start. It’s so hard to get a month, especially in winter, to average more than a degree or two below the long term average. It can be done, but rarely.

  14. Seeing a colder trend on the Sunday/Monday storm…at least based on what Eric Fisher and Dave Epstein have tweeted. Hope it gets colder still…

  16. Welcome home, WxW. So glad you’re back!

    Glimmer of light in the western sky at 4:45!!!

    Watched Liverpool throttle second place Leicester City this afternoon, 4-nil, in a traditional EPL Boxing Day match. John Henry’s Liverpool side is the best soccer team on the planet right now, winning the FIFA World Club Cup last week in Qatar and dominating the English Primer League so far this season with a 17-0-1 record.

    Maybe some of Liverpool’s success can rub off on the Red Sox in 2020!

    John Henry and Bob Kraft are two of the best owners in professional sports.

  17. According to Pete, the Euro Weeklies just came out with extreme warmth for mid-January. His words, not mine.

    1. He kind of backed off on the wording on his 11PM newscast.

      The E.W.’s are probably over-doing that anyway. I think we will have a thaw between one cold outbreak and a briefly snowy pattern. In short, a lot of transitions in January.

  18. Thanks TK !

    Greetings from Bermuda !

    We had a tail wind of 114 mph while at cruising altitude. The plane was doing 613 mph and did the 2 hr, 6 min flight in 1 hr, 30 min !!!! Smooth air at cruising altitude, a bit bumpy at take off and quite bumpy under 5,000 ft during landing.

    It’s in the mid 60s with low 50F dew points. It feels mild. The sun is hot though when you face south !!!! The ocean water is not warm, but certainly not cold.

    Can’t say how much seeing green grass and palm trees and light blue water has already helped me !!

  19. Thank you, TK.

    Thank you for your note, Wx Watcher.

    The cold (now bronchitis) is in a step-wise pattern. First innocuous cough. Then a veritable flood of sneeze. Now a low-grade fever (afternoon) coupled with typical bronchitis symptoms. I have to travel tomorrow, so I’m in a bind. Last year I had a carbon copy of this at the exact same time. But, I didn’t have to travel.

    1. I’m sorry to hear this Joshua, especially with your having to travel. Do you have antibiotics? Three year old Rilyn Mac ended up with pneumonia from this and her six year old brother with bronchitis. It is a nasty virus.

      Prayers that you are better soon.

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