Saturday Forecast

30 Comments

10:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
High pressure moves over the region today and slides offshore Sunday when clouds will arrive ahead of an approaching low pressure system, but we’ll have a very nice last weekend of 2019 before all of that. The main focus for a sprawling low pressure area affecting the region will be precipitation type, mainly rain vs. freezing rain vs. sleet. The synoptics of the situation will be a broad low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes but not being allowed to race into Canada thanks to blocking high pressure there, so as we have seen many times in that general set-up, we get an occlusion of the fronts and low pressure redevelops along the point where they meet and the actual center(s) of low pressure end up passing over or just south of the region. This process will take place Monday through Tuesday, with the ultimate result being a new low pressure area moving right across southeastern New England on Tuesday. As the initial shield of precipitation slides in, the expectation is that it will be cold enough to support a brief period of snow in southern NH and perhaps northeastern MA (though borderline there), and too warm aloft for snow anywhere else. But then the focus for where precipitation will be falling toward the ground as rain will be the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere. For a good portion of northern MA it may be cold enough in enough of the atmosphere to support sleet (ice pellets) for a while, and colder air more concentrated nearer ground level would mean freezing rain (glaze) for areas to the south – probably southern MA away from the coastline and northern RI to northeastern CT. Closer to the coast milder surface temperatures probably mean just rain there. Most of this would take place during Monday morning and midday. With time, the atmosphere should warm sufficiently to turn most of this to regular rain, although interior locations may still see pockets of sleet and freezing rain well into the day Monday, maybe even to the evening. During the overnight hours into early Tuesday, the track of low pressure should be close enough to transport enough milder air into the lower atmosphere for the entire WHW forecast area to see rain, before it tapers off as low pressure finally exits via the Gulf of Maine by New Year’s Eve. This should at least allow some improvement for that evening’s activities, although we may be left with some fog behind it all. So there is your nice weekend then messy finish to the year. What about the first day of 2020? Looking great as high pressure returns to the region!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Precipitation arriving west to east as snow and/or sleet southern NH and the MA border, sleet & freezing rain much of northern MA, freezing rain to the south except rain South Coast. Lows 30-37. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Sleet and freezing rain likely interior areas with rain coast. Highs 30-35 interior, 35-40 coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain but pockets of freezing rain and sleet still possible early interior northern MA and southern NH. Temperatures rising slowly to 35-40 interior and 40-45 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain morning, ending afternoon but with areas of fog forming. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 32-39. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Split jet stream flow, polar near and north of the US/Canada border, subtropical mainly south of New England, and timing energy moving along each stream and any potential interaction will be difficult at best until we are much closer to any possible events, so the easiest way to sum up the first 5 days of 2020 is that we will have to watch 1 or 2 low pressure systems that may impact the region with some precipitation, but that we will also have a fair amount of dry weather as well, with temperature fluctuation.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
Cold, mainly dry to start, then a warm up and may end the period with a storm system favoring mix to rain over any snow.

30 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. In case anybody was interested in seeing this over-the-top (in a good way) Christmas display in Wilmington Massachusetts, here it is from my visit 2 days before Christmas… This display was set up by a 22 year old guy with very little help. The real house is the one in the back. He built the other stuff after last year’s slightly smaller display…

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/81171256_10157931072917265_965097005590249472_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_ohc=ndIUK3G2c-cAQlKyKV_OAllwdCGfZxs90OSwUJfJMcT77kLG–KgqYRXg&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-1.fna&oh=b596d7078a61f062e1e40ba3cddfa06f&oe=5EAFB899

    1. So far this (early) winter is to my great liking. I like several snow events early, enough cold so it’s not a “warm” December, and relaxed patterns with occasional active times. January is going to be busy but not that bad. February, still leaning cold & dry.

  6. Thanks TK!
    I think I’m going to get some extra gas for the generator, I’m not liking what I’m seeing regarding freezing rain, and with living in a heavily wooded area it’s better to be safe than sorry. I remember the last major freezing rain event, we had no power for 6 days. TK any thoughts on freezing rain vs sleet in my area. My elevation is about 750’.

    2. I am concerned with up to 1/2 inch of ice accretion in that area, unfortunately. I’m hoping we can advect surface warmth in a little sooner to flip it to plain rain.

    1. Thanks SC. All these years, never once been to Old Sturbridge Village. You probably are right in that freezing rain zone. Take care. 🙂

  9. I’ve been there more times than I can count, it‘a a fun and educational place to visit, although like everyone one else who lives close by to a particular attraction, you tend to take it for granted. Thanks for your input.

    1. A friend from Sutton was the one who played the headless horseman at Sturbridge village this year and last. Mac and I always loved going there with the kids.

    1. I do not think Boston will have any issues . I’m extremely surprised I got the call tonight to report at 10pm tomorrow night

      1. Having depended on being able to move from car to hospital for treatment that is life changing, I will never question the choice of a hospital. But I will always be beyond grateful.

      2. I’m not surprised SSK. Boston should still have some frozen precip overnight tomorrow then rain the rest of Monday. I get you get released by noon Monday.

        Does a superior call you or the hospital itself?

      1. Sometimes WP will log me out and it defaults to that. I just replied before I logged back in. 😛

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