Sunday Forecast

74 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
High pressure slides offshore today and clouds advance ahead of a complex low pressure system, the initial center of which heads into the Great Lakes but redevelops along its occluding frontal system to pass over southeastern New England sometime Tuesday. This scenario, with marginal cold air, means a messy storm system to wrap up 2019. A link in the first comment to my colleague’s special blog on this system will provide some graphs / maps to show details of the storm’s impact on this area. Snow will be a minor component, with minor accumulation at the start late tonight over northeastern MA and southern NH. The big question is sleet vs. freezing rain. There may be a long period of sleet just in from the coast over much of eastern and central MA northward, and a shorter period of sleet before going to freezing rain to the south. During the heart of the storm, it is the lower elevations of interior eastern MA northward that may see the longest period of sleet due to the depth of the cold air at the surface while it warms aloft, and higher elevations which may see more freezing rain due to a shallower cold air layer between the ground there and the warmth above. Toward the South Coast, we should see mostly plain rain out of this, although for a time some borderline temperatures may mean pockets of sleet and freezing rain there as well. Eventually the warmer air gets into surface areas to transition everyone to rain as the system gets set to taper off Tuesday, and then it all moves out New Year’s Eve. The first 2 days of 2020, in contrast, look much nicer as high pressure moves in.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Precipitation arriving west to east as snow and/or sleet southern NH and the MA border, sleet & some freezing most other areas except rain immediate South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Sleet and freezing rain likely interior areas with rain coast. Highs 30-35 interior, 35-40 coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain but pockets of freezing rain and sleet still possible early interior northern MA and southern NH. Temperatures rising slowly to 35-40 interior and 40-45 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain morning, ending afternoon but with areas of fog forming. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 32-39. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Minor precipitation event early January 3 (rain showers favored) as a disturbance passes. Colder air follows and another low pressure system threatens with mix/snow around January 5, though this is low confidence. It may turn colder still behind this with dry weather returning.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Cold, mainly dry to start, then a warm up and may end the period with a storm system favoring mix to rain over any snow.

74 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK!
    It will be interesting to see how this ice storm plays out. I can imagine that for those who love photography there may be an opportunity to capture some great frozen landscapes.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Euro, GFS and CMC all hint at a decent snow event around the 1/8-1/9 time period.

    Is this a real possibility or just more tease material?

    We shall see IF it is still there come the 12Z runs.

  5. Thanks TK and SAK !

    Enjoy this one everyone 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Glad we return Tuesday, sounds like air and other travels may be heavily impacted Monday (tomorrow).

      1. Great !

        Yesterday, we did a 10:30 – 2:30 pm boat trip and tour of the Royal Naval Dockyard. The hotel provided 2 tour guides for the first 45 minutes, then we walked around the rest of the time.

        We saved beach days for today and Monday as it’s forecast to be 70F or a bit higher. I will get into the ocean today. It’s already 65F.

        The fairmont has its own beach, which is beautiful. We have walked through an adjacent gate and 100 yards beyond is Horseshoe Beach, so we’re going to head over there for a couple hrs today, then come back to the hotel beach where you can get a good burger and drinks and bring them right onto the beach.

        3. Tom the Dockyard is where the Boston to Bermuda cruise ship docks I’ve been there Twice there is a nice little hidden beach there .

  6. 12Z NAM 10:1 snow map

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019122906/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

    12Z GFS 10:1 Snow map

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019122906/gfs_asnow_neus_18.png

    I only show these to give an example of the extent of sleet/freezing rain forecast
    as the Kuchera snow maps look oh so different. See below

    NAM

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019122906/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    GFS

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019122906/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  7. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning!

    South Central (and others who may be affected), I hope any damage and/or power outages don’t occur or are very minimal during this ice storm.

    1. I second your great comment Captain. Well, maybe just my house could have a power outage 😉 But ditto on the rest.

  9. Thanks TK
    I am keeping my fingers crossed but it looks like I will see just a cold rain where I am although not too far to my north its looking like a different story with an ice storm warning issued for the northern part of the county. It is not too often you an ice storm warning issued.

  10. I continue to see a glimmer of hope, or the best of the worst, in some of the short range guidance, that sets up a rare situation of making sleet last longer than freezing rain for a good part of the region that is below 32. While sleet is certainly no picnic to travel in, it is better than icing/glazing, both in terms of walks/roads and in regards to tree damage. Sleet bounces off tree branches. Freezing rain coats them. Root for sleet with all your might! 😉

  11. There is the potential for a vicious line of snow squalls crossing NY State Tuesday evening, but so far I don’t think it will survive all the way into the WHW forecast area.

    1. They did a little bit, but that’s not likely correct. They get into that mode where they start to warm the lower levels too much. They are there now.

      1. Good to know. Thanks.
        GFS still looks the same as does the CMC sort of. Waiting on Euro.

        FWIW, the 12Z GFS has LOST the snow event for 1/7. There’s a surprise. Waiting to see if CMC and EURO still have something
        in that 1/7-1/9 time frame.

          2. Mostly north does not exclude Boston from having issues. We also have to watch for sneaky cold to slide down the coast and make the city colder than model forecasts indicate. This is fairly common in a set-up like this one.

  13. Looks like heavy sleet across interior NE Mass, whished for a snow storm while I was here but no, I get an darn icy mix. Yuck.

      1. the the 10th, Im going for a ski weekend this upcoming weekend, I hope what ever happens Friday is snow in ski country.

  14. Tk looking at projected temps on weather bug it’s showing 35 pretty much all night till 10am tomorrow morning in Brookline .

      1. Perhaps. We’d be fools to think it will go on forever. However, if I had a nickle for the number of times I’ve heard that, I would be a very wealthy woman. Regardless, they are my team and always will be. I will be forever grateful for what they have given us. I surely can’t fault a team that has done so much. And given back so much.

        1. We have witnessed a very very rare thing with this team. Obviously there’s no way to tell for sure, but I’d bet there will never be a dynasty that lasts this long again in this league. We have witnessed the greatest football team of all time over nearly 2 decades of time. Amazing. Nothing will last forever, but that isn’t going to stop me from watching and rooting for them as well. 🙂

          1. I absolutely believe your words are true. It’s why when they don’t play up to their usual speed, I cant find fault. What they have given us is above and beyond what any fan can expect of his or her team. It’s just me and it doesn’t make it right or wrong. I owe them thanks above all else. I’m so damned proud of them.

            1. Sorry. Should have added but am on deck and grands came out to chat and I was distracted. I know you feel the same.

            2. Absolutely. Sure I am disappointed in today’s playing and I think they could have performed better. But it’s far from the end of the world.

  17. Pats…
    -I agree with JPD that the performance was poor. It felt like they were not playing for the 1st round bye. The closeness of the game was fun though, but yeah, the Pats should have been in control of this one.
    -Dynasty over? Too early for that. It’s like saying winter is over 8 days after the solstice. Even if it is ending, what an incredible run.
    -They’re in the playoffs. If you don’t think they can win, please don’t watch the games. You’re probably a bad luck charm. 😉 HAHA

    Weather…
    -I’m looking over the short range guidance. So far I like what I see in terms of minimizing the amount of ice accretion or at least confining the worst of it to the hills of Worcester County and the Berkshires, while lower elevations see more sleet.
    -I’m not convinced but not ruling out a band of snow showers and/or squalls coming across this area between 10PM January 1st and 3AM January 2.
    -Medium range is not great for snow chances thanks largely to the MJO. This was stated previously by WxW and I am reiterating it here. However that does not mean we can’t get a sneaky snow event. We still need to watch from January 4 through 6 for a polar jet stream disturbance with cold air in place. I’m not saying we’re definitely getting something in there but that’s a window of risk for something is conditions unfold just so. Our Pacific systems are going to find their primary tracks through the Great Lakes and we’ll have to watch each case to see if there is secondary development, for example a situation such as the one we are about to see.
    -We need to watch the transition period between cold toward the end of the first 10 days of January and milder weather in the second half of the month. That transition time is when we may see pretty much of all of the month’s snowfall.
    -Still seeing signals of more sustained cold for February, but also a dry pattern establishing at that time.

  18. Playoff Picture
    Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, Texans, Bills, (Titans, Steelers, Raiders)
    ( Biggest threat to the top two teams, two of the top defenses in the Bills and Patriots)
    Patriots are 3-3 in the wildcard (not good)
    Defense seems to have lost some of its power the last two weeks, hopefully they can get it back in time for next week.
    Again today was on the receivers those incompletions except for about 5 of them were on the receivers not brady. Running backs at times had good push but not enough to carry the team.

    Overall F grade for coaching, wth were they thinking at the end of the first half?? Game management has gone done the crapper the last few weeks as well.

    If the Bills make to the championship game, and the patriots do as well it will be hosted in New England which could happen.

    The NFL does not want the patriots in the AFC championship game, they want the Chiefs and Ravens.

    1. Pats won’t be in AFC game this year they need to do some rebuilding this off season & unfortunately some key guys will be walking .

  19. Tennessee coming to town I believe we lost to them this year . There quarterback is on a tear right now .

  20. I will trade spots for where your football team is right now as the Patriots are in the playoffs and my Cowboys are not. The playoffs start everyone is 0-0. Will see what happens. I am hoping Jason Garrett is gone and hopefully bounce back next year.

  21. Vicki we couldn’t beat the elite teams this year and a lot of the games we came out flat which to me is coaching and from the reports it looks like Jason Garrett will not be returning. On paper the Cowboys are better than an 8-8 team but we don’t play games on paper.

  22. Hi TK, thanks as always for the updates. Any idea on approximate elevation where the sleet/freezing rain line might be found out in the Worcester Hills?

  24. From Eric

    0z NAM nudged the heavier sleet just a bit farther north. Expecting the most in northern MA/NH. Some south of the Pike but nothing crazy

  29. No sleet here yet. Not sure there will be any. Looks like the NAMS may have been
    correct all along. HRRR crapped the bed, imho. 🙂

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