Monday Forecast

104 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
A messy low pressure area will bother the region for the last couple days of 2019 like annoying relatives that overstayed their visit… However, this could have been a worse situation, with air just mild enough to limit the amount of sleet and freezing rain. Today will be the worst of it, and still some significant icing will occur but mainly over interior areas from central MA into southern NH. A secondary low that formed just southwest of the region will come up and across far southeastern New England early Tuesday before accelerating away via the Gulf of Maine, a little more quickly than previously thought, and the original parent low, or what’s left of it, will pass north of the region Tuesday evening, dragging a trough of low pressure through. So we’ll get rid of the rain/ice part of the storm tonight and early Tuesday, then we may just see a few passing snow showers for New Year’s Eve. A westerly flow behind all of this greets 2020 with a decent day Wednesday, and then high pressure will build in for a nice Thursday, before another low moving into the Great Lakes sends clouds in during Friday and eventually a light rain threat as warm front approaches.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain with pockets of sleet and freezing rain. Most vulnerable areas for icing interior MA (mainly Worcester County) and interior southern NH. Highs 30-37, coldest Worcester County MA an southwestern NH. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain but pockets of freezing rain and sleet still possible early interior northern MA and southern NH. Temperatures rising slowly to 35-40 interior and 40-45 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with lingering rain/drizzle early, then mostly cloudy with intervals of sun possible. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, W 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain late. Highs 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
Trending colder. Rain showers early January 4. Risk of snow or snow showers may increase later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Cold, mainly dry to start, then moderating temperatures and more unsettled weather later in the period.

104 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Some significant icing already has occurred in the Worcester Hills. Just talked to a friend who said walkways and driveways are ice sheets in Fitchburg area. The only adjustment made to this forecast was a tick milder closer to the coast. I think a lot of people were somehow thinking this was going to be a major ice storm everywhere. I heard far too many references to 2008 when this was clearly not going to be anything remotely close to that. I wish the emphasis would shift away from everything being considered extreme, or compared to extremes, and more focused on the actual events at hand.

  6. Getting a mix of rain and a little ice here in Essex County. Went to grocery store and the lot was a bit slippery.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Was down to 35 at my house in the wee hours, but climbed to 37 by the time I left shortly before 8AM. Still 37 now. I did not see any sleet on the ground. I do not believe it
    ever sleeted overnight, but I can’t rule out that some sleet may have mixed in???
    In any case none now nor do I expect any.

    Still bummed about the piss-poor performance by the Patriots yesterday. That was BRUTAL!()@&)#(&!*()@&#()!*@()#*()!@*#()!*()#*!()*#(!*@#(*(!@*#

    Ok, next up the Titans. Let’s see how the pats can screw up that game.

    re: Winter
    Feeling might low about the Winter prospects. Here’s hoping for one of TK’s
    sneaky snow events. I keep looking, but it’s more like I hear you knocking, but
    you can’t come in!

  8. Correction on rain. 0.75.

    South central. How is the driving in your area. One of my kids wants to head to north Hampton. Thank you!!

    1. Funny, I am at 0.75 at my house in JP.

      FWIW, the temperature has dropped from 37 to 36, which means it probably
      dropped from 36.6 to 36.4 or something along those lines. 🙂

          1. Please send that about 10-15 miles SouthEast.
            Can you manage that?
            Raining pretty hard in the city.

            Interesting. The wind has backed from E to ENE
            at Logan.
            Still 39 at Logan, but I suspect it will drop a tad.
            Down to 35 at my house in JP. Wonder IF it
            is sleeting there?

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Hi Vicki the temp here is currently 32.7 up from a low of 31.5 around 6:00 this morning. We have a very light glaze on grass and trees here, the roads seem in good condition especially the ones that have been treated. I’m not sure how things are West of here but If they are taking main routes they should have no problem. No issues with tree limbs or power outages here. I think we may have dodged a bullet by one degree. Probably one of the most difficult types of weather to forecast, hyper local conditions.

  12. I cannot hear sleet pinging, nor can I see from the 3rd floor sleet bouncing off of
    the street below, however, the visibility would suggest that it is sleeting???
    I may take a trip downstairs and outside to see for sure. I need to finish my coffee first. 🙂

  13. CONFIRMED!
    I just went outside. SLEETING in Boston!!! Very slight accumulation showing
    on grassy/wood chipped areas.

  14. In Lunenburg, we have had rain, sleet and snow. I think that there must have been a period of freezing rain last night based on the vehicle windshields. But, the driveway is coated with about 1/2″ of sleet and is not at all slippery. Right now it is snowing.

  18. JpDave, got in the ocean in the coves just past Horseshoe Beach. 🙂

    Reading above, I saw Portland, ME’s temp and dp dropping this morning, looks like some of that is advecting in.

    Strong SW wind here, 70F dewpoint climbing into the low to mid 60s. Feels like early New England summer.

  22. My Grandpa’s health worsened earlier this year, he was passing out and falling he went through rehab and was home for a few weeks over the summer before going back to the hospital and rehab. Despite this my grandparents celebrated their 60th. We had an amazing X-mas with everyone at my Grandparents place and he was talking with us all, my brothers and I were at the table talking and laughing. He is still with us but not sure for how much

    1. Matt, I know very well how much you love your grandparents and how close you are. I’m happy to hear that you were all together at Christmas and able to enjoy your grandpa! 60 years just brings me tons of happy tears. How wonderful.

      1. We are all currently at the nursing/rehab got the call his health turned for the worst last night so all of us are here with him. I’m also here for my Grammie. She is so strong

    2. Wish him nothing but the best. Happy you were able to enjoy Christmas
      with them. I only had my Grandparents until I was about 20 years old.
      My wife never got to see hers, so I am lucky I had the 20 years as some don’t get that. You have done very well.

      My Grandfather on my Mother’s side is the one who introduced me to fishing as he took me several times when I was only 5 & 6. In fact, I still fish in one of
      the very first locations he took me in Needham. 🙂

      1. JPD – what a special memory. Thank you for sharing.

        I didn’t know my grandparents on my mom’s side. My dads parents passed when I was in third and fourth grade so I have fleeting memories. My mom’s aunt (her dad’s brother’s wife) was who I thought of as my nana. She is the one who had the home on Isle la Motte, VT.

  23. SIL said driving is very slippery around these parts. A sander is driving up the street as I type

    They wisely did not go to Northhampton area.

  25. Sleeting with a touch of ice mixed in here in Harvard.

    Matt – I’m so sorry to hear your Grandfather is ill – our thoughts are with you and your family. Your grandparents certainly won the grandchild lottery with you and it sounds like it goes both ways. I would say treasure every moment but it’s clear you already are.

  26. Happy Holidays everyone!

    Matt, very sorry to hear about your grandfather. It’s nice you got to spend some quality time with him while you are back home.

    It is a miserable 32 degrees and raining here in Amsterdam, NY where we will be through New Years. Some sleet has mixed in from time to time but no accumulation. Fortunately there has not been any icing issues as forecast but it has been a different scene not too far north of here where it is a degree or two colder.

    Saw that Gore Mtn and most of the ski areas in southern VT have been on very limited operations today with all the lift closures due to icing.

    1. I should say GFS is a bit weaker while the Euro is more amplified but regardless, good agreement between the two on Phase 4/5 as we head towards mid Jan.

  31. Crazy storm…1.5″ of snow/sleet in Holden, with 1/8″ of ice. Been snowing consistently since 11:30 am. Bit of a sleet mixing in now. Stay away ice!

  32. It was decidedly milder in Woburn than it was in Reading during the 2PM hour, but my temp just dropped a bit with a burst of large snowflakes. For the most part I just have a mix of light sleet/rain here otherwise. We’ve had about a half inch of sleet today.

  33. Thanks, TK.

    Matt, I’m sorry to hear about your grandfather’s worsening health. I’m glad you got some quality time at Christmas with him and your grandmother.

    Not looking promising regarding snow in January. But, we’ll know soon enough.

    The Patriots looked defeated throughout the game yesterday. And, that seemed so out of character, given the importance of the contest and the fact that they played well the previous week. My concern with Brady continues to be his hand-eye coordination. Not his fitness, but his ability to be accurate, which has been alarmingly sub-par most of the season. That declines rapidly after the age of 40 (begins to decline after 30 for most professional athletes). Not even an avocado-laden diet can prevent this. On defense, the biggest surprise was Gilmore’s atrocious performance. It should be noted, however, that DeVante Parker is an excellent wide receiver. I think he’s the best receiver the Patriots have had to deal with all season, quite frankly.

    1. How ironic that if the play that was incorrectly called against KC that was actually a touchdown was called correctly, yesterday’s loss wouldn’t have mattered one bit.

  34. Who had a severe thunderstorm in CT on their weather bingo card for today? That’s exactly what we had this past hour with multiple reports of quarter size hail. NWS Boston just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for it as it moves through the Springfield area.

    1. It’s producing a nice batch of CGs as well. There’s a batch of very unstable air up there above the cold air. In this situation it treats the cold air below as if it’s the earth’s surface. Everything takes place above it.

  35. Still sleeting here in JP, although it has alternated with a bit of light rain.
    Not too long ago while out and about there was SNOW mixing in from JP through Roslindale to W. Roxbury. 15 minutes later it was back to all sleet.

    Perhaps 0.1 inch on the ground here.

  36. Drive home from Boston today. The Worcester hills really are a thing. Even going from Shrewsbury to Holden there was a big difference. Really pretty out with maybe 1.5”.

    1. These types of bolts are more powerful than their summertime cousins. They are equaling charge separation of greater distances because of the elevated cloud bases. And the in-cloud flashes are also pretty potent and the inversion in the atmosphere keeps the sound from escaping upward.

    1. Glad you are home. Son not home yet from what I understand. He worked a double but he does that at least once a week. I’ll be happy when he is home.

  48. Aunt just got back from bringing a few of the younger cousins back home, said their was hail and sleet so bad they could not see more than a foot in front of them

  50. Sooooo. Daughter and family were out for groceries. They had just stopped to look at Macs Christmas tree in his memory on Sutton common when the entire sky lit up. I give mom nature credit for this very exciting weather event, but with maybe a bit of help from a special angel right between his granddaughters 11th birthday and New Years

    2. Love this and I firmly believe the special angel had a hand in it. I tend to think the “veil between worlds” is thinner than we realize.

    1. Had our own badass line pass through Harvard not too long ago! Man, TK wasn’t kidding that they’re feistier than their summertime counterparts. It might have been the loudest thunder I have ever heard.

  53. I think this is when I’m going to get the most ice accretion, it’s raining moderately with a temp of 31.6 and no sun.

  55. Heard from a friend back in Coventry that we had thunder sleet and snow there too around 5:30. He said 9 or 10 loud rumbles of thunder. He saw numerous accidents and spin outs on I 384 on his way back from work.

    Up here in upstate NY we flipped from rain to sleet to snow but it’s pretty light now. Still enough to create a slick coating on everything.

  57. The irony of the severe weather today is that if severe weather was to occur anywhere, the logical place would’ve been in the Delmarva region where SPC had a marginal risk earlier. In the warm sector, where it was in the 60s-70s. For elevated convection to become severe is unusual especially up here. As a warning forecaster, that’s a tough case to take a missed event on. It’s practically a technicality to get 1” hail on a day like this. You’d have to be pretty ballsy to issue a severe thunderstorm warning in that environment without ground truth.

  58. Still SLEETING here in JP. An absolute SLEETFEST! 🙂 🙂 🙂
    If we can’t get a snow storm, I’ll take this. I was out walking it in. Love it.

    Last time I saw thunder Sleet was at the end of the Super Storm in 93.

    TV time. Not sure what we will watch tonight. Either continue with friends
    OR check out the Politician on Netflix. I rarely watch broadcast TV, well mostly because it SUCKS!

  60. Had to bring my daughter to the train station in Boston tonight. Left Amesbury at 7:45, and route 95 was brutal. Once we hit Route 1 things were much better. Ride home was also much improved. Could not believe how hard it was sleeting when we left Amesbury.

    1. Rare convective sleet. We don’t see it often. There was also genuine hail in some of those cells.

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