Friday Forecast

57 Comments

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
Two waves of low pressure impact southeastern New England during the next 3 days, producing episodes of rain, though along with rain-free times as well through Saturday. The first wave’s rainfall will occur mainly south of I-90 today and tonight, but in patchy form with many rain-free times. The second wave will eventually impact a larger portion of the region with areas of rain. It’s when the second wave starts to intensify just offshore early Sunday at the time cold air arrives that we will see a burst of snow or snow showers for at least portions of the region. For right now I am still of the general thought process that it will snow in most of the region at least a little bit, with a mostly minor accumulation occurring before the storm departs. Quickly on the heals of this departing system will come a clipper-type low pressure system via the Great Lakes with snow showers possible Monday. And as if that was not enough, yet another low will approach by later Tuesday, with at least marginally cold enough air in place for a winter weather threat. The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with periods of light rain favoring southern areas, and less of a chance northern MA and southern NH. Partly sunny north and mostly cloudy south afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Some light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, possibly mixing with or turning to snow portions of southern NH and northern MA. Lows 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow or snow showers except rain ending as snow or snow showers southeastern MA/RI/eastern CT. Preliminary accumulation estimate a coating to 1 inch southeastern MA/RI/eastern CT, and 1-3 inches elsewhere with higher amounts favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible late. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Low pressure systems will line up in a train along the fast-flowing jet stream for an unsettled stretch heading toward mid January. The first system will be impacting the region January 8 then moving out with a quick shot of dry/cold air for January 9. Additional unsettled weather with rain/mix/snow possible at times later January 10 through the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Two more low pressure systems potentially impact the region with precipitation threats during this 5-day stretch in mid month. Temperatures variable, averaging on the slightly above side of normal.

57 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Good morning, TK, and thank you, sir!

    Latest sunrise (coming up in minutes) at 7:12:06 until Halloween!

  5. Thank you TK.
    Just curious, NWS mentions a “NationalBlend” as high resolution guidance. Is this a new model or has it been called something else previously? I havent seen them use it before. Thanks and I’ll take anyones info on this

    1. Translation not a big deal . Should be a wet one for the big game . Curious if the crowd will give Tom a big send off as it could ( key word could ) be his last game in Foxboro. I do not think so but this is extremely possible .

    1. For the life of me, I do not know what is going on here.
      These links will not load on my work or home computer nor will they
      load on my Samsung mobile device.

      What up?

        1. Yup, perfectly. I have no clue as to what is going on.
          If I create an Imgur.com link, it works just fine.

  10. I know this may not be a popular opinion …..

    With the October coastal windstorm and the snowy December, most districts already have accrued 2 snow days, if not one or 2 more.

    Things can change, but there seems to be an opportunity to get through the next 2 weeks to MLK weekend getting 10 school days in without cancellation.

    I can accept 1, maybe 2 more snow days so that those wishing for snow are happy as well, but hopefully not for a while.

    1. Popular or no, it is surely a fair comment. I’ll wish for snow on weekends. Most are home then and those who have to report to work would have to regardless of the day.

  12. Vicki did you watch the Alex Trebek interview on ABC last night and what did you think of it? I thought it was very good.

    1. I am part way through it. I was afraid I’d fall asleep so am about to watch the rest now. I thought what I saw was quite good also.

      1. I watched it. Very good. Alex has a very attractive wife. Obviously is considerably younger as I believe Alex is well into his 70’s. My guess his wife is in her early 50’s. 🙂

        Very sad this cancer had to happen to a wonderful human being. I got the impression his time is getting close. 🙁

  16. I meant to post this yesterday but got tied up….. my ride home Wednesday from Upstate NY through the Berkshires was unbelievable. The ice storm aftermath and tree carnage driving along the Mass Pike through the higher elevations of the Berkshires (around Becket and Blandford) was spectacular. Heavy icing and snow stuck to the trees with branches sagging to the ground. I was going to pull over and take a picture but it was getting dark and the sun was setting. However….I found this post with some pictures from the Catskills and this is pretty much exactly what it looked like along the Mass Pike…

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    Jan 2

    Stunning aftermath of an ice storm in New York’s Catskills!

    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1212772032435363840?s=20

    1. Must have been lots of power outages with trees and branches down earlier in the week in those areas.

  18. Not sure if anyone has been following this, but the ongoing national emergency in Australia continues with extreme heat, drought, and widespread brush fires…

    Jim Cantore
    @JimCantore
    12h

    BBC News – Australia fires: A visual guide to the bushfires and extreme heat
    https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1213016709906472961?s=20

    Some incredible satellite loops as a result….

    #1
    https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1213085853657886720?s=20

    #2
    https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1212864516792504321?s=20

    #3
    https://twitter.com/weatherbell/status/1212817011623047168?s=20

  19. Gotta love Mt. Etna’s smoke ring show. It’s a perfectly shaped crater to do such a thing, but even with that, it’s quite rare to see.

    No changes to the forecast. We need to watch for a very quick forming 1 to 2 hour snow band that can produce moderate snowfall in eastern MA early Sunday morning.

    Our pattern may end up more favorable for snow than any guidance will have you believe in the 7-14 day time frame.

    1. I hope you are right! It’s an active storm track the next two weeks for sure. Wouldn’t take much of a shift southeast with some of those systems (and perhaps a stronger block to our north) to introduce more snow or mix here than presently shown. We are up against it though with some unfavorable teleconnections through mid month.

    2. MJO looks like it wants to make a U turn out of Phase 4/5 and back towards neutral by Jan 17. The AO, NAO, and PNA become less hostile by then as well.

      If we can snag a snow event before then, great, but if not, I think we should at least have improved chances the last two weeks of January.

      TK, what do you think?

      1. Not in my opinion Mark – the teleconnectiom progs beyond 5 -7 days have been downright awful.

        Our best chance for snow comes between the 8th and 20th of January with some anomalous to pattern winter weather events.

        I am still buying on the idea of a drier to potentially much drier than average February.

        1. Thanks TK and JMA.

          Can’t argue with that. The teleconnection forecasts are based off the GFS, Euro, etc and those models certainly have been crappy in the long range.

  20. JJ. The show what is Jeopardy was excellent. I agree with you. What an amazing run and amazing man. I had a lot of trouble listening to his wife. I understood every word she said as truth.

  21. Vicki I can not wait for next week either to watch that Jeopardy tournament. I think a lot of Jeopardy fans wanted to see the three best players in Jeopardy’s history compete. Brad Rutter is my pick to win it.

    1. To make it fun, I’ll pick James or Ken. My heart will probably have me pick Ken but not sure yet. That way we have someone separate to root for.

  22. The only reason I am picking Brad Rutter is because he has never lost to a human on Jeopardy and I just feel this will continue here. His only loss IBM computer Watson. I always wondered how many games in a row Brad would have won. When he was on Jeopardy you could only win five games which is what he won.

    1. I absolutely agree with your reasoning. I figured you and I could have fun choosing someone different.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    My Dutch meteorologist friends are skeptical about the possibility of Scandinavian ridging in the near and mid-term. The prevailing southwesterly will be dominant for quite some time. It’s been yet another exceptionally mild winter in Holland for the most part, with hardly any nighttime frost. Unfortunately, this has been the norm in recent years/decades, as the warming in northwestern Europe has been much more pronounced than the northeastern U.S.

    I must say I’m a little disappointed in our North Carolina winter thus far. `Snowy’ December didn’t feel snowy to me. The snow and ice came and went very quickly. And, it’s generally been a ho-hum, mostly mild winter. I’m not seeing much that looks like real winter in the near, mid- and long-range.

    I was a bit bothered by a met last night who said we’d be having a January thaw soon. Did he mean a continuation of the thaw we’ve been having for 10 days? I have no idea. But, in my book you can only say January thaw after it’s been wintry cold in January for a considerable period of time.

    1. I heard 2 more say it tonight. It’s incorrect terminology.

      The January thaw is defined as a period of mild weather after an extended period of mostly cold weather. A true January thaw doesn’t happen that often.

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