Sunday Forecast

62 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
Low pressure’s departure today included a little pre-dawn snow for parts of the region, but the precipitation pulled offshore before all that much could fall. Here at the WHW location in Woburn MA we received a dusting of snow, much of which has either melted on mild ground or is in the process of sublimating in a chilly wind, which will be gusty today as the sky trends sunnier with time after starting with clouds. We are in a weather pattern where systems will be moving right along. The next low will be a weak system being deprived of much of its moisture as it moves rapidly eastward just north of the Great Lakes with a trough extending through the Great Lakes region toward New England. At most this system will manage to produce a little insignificant light snow Monday before exiting, and making way for yet another low, this one with a bit more substance to it, coming out of the Ohio Valley, impacting the region by late Tuesday. The exact track of this system will determine precipitation type, but the early thinking is a track far enough south that colder air will be more dominant. This system, regardless of what it produces, exits during Wednesday and opens the door for a shot of windy/cold weather through Thursday.
The forecast details…
TODAY: A few rain/snow showers ending Cape Cod, otherwise a cloud/sun mix with clouds dominant to start and becoming dominant with time.
Highs 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Clear evening, clouding up overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A couple periods of very light snow possible. Highs 30-37. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible late. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Wind variable 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely early, ending as mix/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Active pattern with 2 or 3 areas of low pressure potentially impacting the region with precipitation threats. Leaning toward milder with rain threat at first, colder with mix/snow threat later. Low confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
The active pattern continues with variable temperatures but no big time extremes in temperature noted through the middle of the month.

62 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    2. I was up at 6… after being up til 2AM watching an old movie with Jimmy Stewart in it. 😛

      1. What movie, TK?

        I was awake on and off during the night. Too much excitement with the back to back games.

        1. I have been up since 3:00 am as I had to get up to go to work as usual. 😉

          I guess I am the only one here on WHW that works weekends also. Actually my days off are Wednesday and Thursday. It works quite nicely for me. 🙂

  2. Layer of dark clouds to my south…..could be to my north also but can’t see from my chair that I’m not leaving Looks a bit like a snow squall Sky, but I don’t see anything on radar.

      1. true, but on previous runs the NAM was the closest. Now the NAM
        is tracking more SE. I suspect some of the other guidance will now show a miss.

  4. Just need a little shift to the Northwest with the track of the low. Regardless not a big snow producer.

  5. I forget who but one of the tv mets casually noted that we have yet to have an all-snow event so far. Considering Logan had 11.5” in December that is quite interesting.

    1. Interesting….
      That may be at the airport. I think at least one of them was all snow at my house??? But I am not sure.

  6. 12Z GFS “looking” like it will take the Tue/Wed system South of us.
    200mb flow just too flat, even if 500mb amplifies.

  7. Vicki, the movie was “The Shop Around The Corner”. I watched that, “Christmas In Connecticut”, and “It Happened On 5th Avenue” over the last few days off a collection of old holiday-related movies I have. These are favorites of my mom’s and watching them reminds me of my mom (who I thankfully still have with me) and a lot of my older relatives that have passed on. The actors in these films were of their generation.

    2. Thank you. Adding to my list. I love old movies. I think my two favorites are An Affair to Remember. My mom and I watched it many times together. And Roman Holiday. Memories of watching with my mom also but of Mac and his wonderful family.

      1. I’m watching “Holiday Inn” and “The Bishop’s Wife” with my mom this evening. I also have 4 of Bing Crosby’s TV holiday specials on DVD. One of them is the last one he recorded just before he passed away, which has the duet with David Bowie. It was taped in late September or early October 1977. Bing died on October 14 after playing 18 holes of golf with friends. He didn’t even show signs of not feeling well. I read once that his last words were “That was a great game of golf, fellas, let’s get a coke.” He died moments later of a massive heart attack. Anyway the special aired on November 30 of that year.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I was struck by the equivocal statement by Brady on retirement. “Pretty unlikely to retire” suggests to me that Brady is seriously considering retirement. I think he will call it quits. I’ve felt this way for weeks. He’s a realist. This season’s problems were not only about his receiving corps. He knows that his skills have diminished considerably. One thing he doesn’t want to do is be a QB for a mediocre team, say, the Chargers, and go 5-11.

    2. I don’t think his skills have really diminished that much over 1 year’s time. He’s definitely over the peak, but he’s still very very good. A lot of it this season was indeed the lack of clicking between himself and the offense. You could see it in guys not making smart decisions. But there were times when you could see his accuracy just not there. But I don’t let one season like that with any player decide for me that it’s “over”. He’s not going to retire yet. Whether or not he returns as a Patriot or with another team for his last year or so remains to be seen. Whatever it is, I’m fine with it. As I stated on someone’s social media post earlier, and I paraphrase here, I’d be incredibly selfish to want more than this man or this team gave me, as a fan of sports and of the Pats. It’s highly unlikely that any fan of any team in any sport will see something the likes of what we witnessed over nearly 2 decades.

          1. Almost every player has to have something done after a season these days. 😉 But even Tom who is in great shape is in his 40s…things happen. He’ll be fine. 🙂

      2. I guess we won’t know for certain until March at the earliest as that is the month to declare himself as a free agent, if I understand correctly.

  9. Both Eric Fisher and Dave Epstein say to be wary of a possible jog back west on the latest model runs

  10. I liked your comment on Brady very much, TK. While I disagree a little (I do think TB’s accuracy has gotten progressively worse, even on short passes), I totally agree that what we’ve witnessed will not happen again in our lifetime. Brady’s achievements are astounding. His condition is superb, not just for a 42 year old.

    1. Edelman SHOULD have made that catch on the next to last drive. Most definitely cost them the game. The pass was picture perfect and more of a “toss” than anything else.

      1. Yeah Philip but he’s so clutch & so key no one is going to bitch about that it’s a wrap . Look now for restructuring & see who’s here come September. McDaniel is definitely gone I think whatever was said to get him off that plain failed ( head coach with pats ) but bill isn’t done yet he is staying , I think Jules is under contact but look at key guys like Brady , mckorty Boys, slater to be possible gone if pats don’t pay . The pats would be a fool if key guys from defense walk as I think with a tad more tweaking the defense can get even better . Offense is key take care of Brady give him what he wants and possibly get gronk back ( which is a possibility believe it or not , offense is the major problem and absolutely needs attention like now . Kraft needs to address Brady situation like now as they need to sit down one on one so it’s not dragged out till March . Pay him & give a two year contract as that is what he wants

      1. Yes, indeed. Our `winter’ is looking less and less wintry, also in the long range. Perusing the Dutch meteorological site it appears that winter there is “ver te zoeken” (which is Dutch, meaning not anywhere to be seen [on any model]). This week some records may be be broken in the low countries as anomalous warmth gather steam. Part of the reason for this is relatively warm ocean and sea water, which is where the wind is coming from over there.

  16. If you’re looking for snow and especially cold, the teleconnections for the next 2 (3?) weeks are…. brutal. Yesterday was my first operational forecast shift in some time, doing the long term forecast, so I had to reacquaint myself with the big picture. I was really struck by just how strong the signals are for anomalous warmth going forward. Not often you can get the AO, NAO, PNA, and MJO pointing so strongly in the same direction. I don’t recall anything like it, not to this extent.

    However, this is also an active pattern, which goes back to something I mentioned some time ago about January and whether we would be more warm and dry or warm and wet/active. It’s looking more like the latter. Such a warm pattern still favors below normal snow, but it does strike me as the kind of setup that can produce “against the pattern” snow events, at least in New England.

    But if sustained cold is what you seek, I’ve got nothing for you there. Maybe next month if you go by the “it has to change eventually” philosophy. But for now, we’re eyeing a top 10 warmest January, if not top 5 or better.

    1. Thank you for your note.

      Even January 2012 had a cold period and a bit of snow (MLK weekend). I’m going out on a limb to say that this January will be milder than 2012. A no-show winter is not what I had hoped for, obviously. But, the climate and weather will do whatever they decide to. They don’t care what I want or anyone else.

  17. I am now wondering in hindsight if the Patriots should have gone for the TD inside the 1 yard line on 4th down. They would have been up 17-7 and would have perhaps taken the Titans wind out of their sails a bit psychologically. With the FG it only inspired the Titans and look what eventually happened on the next series…ended up being the game winning points (14-13) for all practical purposes.

    Having said all that, why did they keep giving the ball to Michel over-and-over on the left side where the ENTIRE Titans line were waiting for him?? A play action pass might have been better on that 3rd down play.

    I am now beginning to wonder if perhaps BB should be the one to go. Opposing coaches are starting to finally figure him out.

    2. Did you watch that series Philip??? If you did you know that they were getting beat & stopped so in that instance you take the more than likely 3 points right call at that point Philip

  18. Philip, I agree with you 100%. The left side hand-offs to a relatively weak RB were too predictable. They sorely miss someone like Blount; even James Develin would have been better at bulldozing his way in. I think they should have gone for it on 4th down, but also had different play calls on previous downs. I also think the Patriots should have gone for it on 4th and 3 in the 4th quarter (they were at the Titans’ 47, I believe). After a bad punt, the Titans possessed the ball (something they’re very good at it, especially late in games) for 8 minutes.

  19. I’m going to take advantage of what looks like a very mild January 11 to get all of my outside lights and decorations down. There won’t be any snow on the ground and the ground will be unfrozen. That’s about as easy as it gets for removal of that stuff. 🙂

  20. Finally it is official Jason Garrett if fired. Please do not give Marvin Lewis the job. He is not an upgrade in the coaching department and has never won a playoff game in all his years as Bengals coach.

    1. Josh M may be a good choice, though it looks like other teams are getting a first look/interview.

      Marvin Lewis is the Don Zimmer of football. Not a recipe for winning. But, you can call him a football lifer, just like Zimmer was a baseball lifer.

  21. They interviewed Mike McCarthy who I think is a better coach than Marvin Lewis. The coach I would like but we would have to give up a lot in a trade to get him is Saints coach Sean Payton.

  22. I was somewhat surprised on that series inside the 1-yd. line that not ONCE did Brady try a QB sneak which is his “bread-and-butter”. In his career he’s rarely been stopped.

    And just prior to the eventual pick-6, why didn’t the Patriots have someone to field the Titans punt? The chances of blocking a punt is very low. Even a deflected punt can still travel a good distance and get a decent bounce downfield.

    Brady should have heaved the ball downfield and hope for a pass interference. I don’t get that short pass that resulted in the pick-6. Oh well.

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