Monday Forecast

90 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
Lots of weather to track. Let’s get to it. First we have a low pressure area moving across the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada, with a trough extending down into New England today, and this may produce a touch of light snow at times except light rain Cape Cod area where it will be too mild for snow. This will be an insignificant system with no travel impact. A slightly stronger low will track rapidly eastward, passing south of the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and may produce a minor snow event mainly south of I-90, most of it occurring Tuesday night. Behind this system on Wednesday may come a few snow showers but more importantly will be colder air and a gusty wind. As high pressure drifts across the region Thursday it will be a cold but more tranquil day. But this high will be offshore by Friday and a warm front will move across the region with more cloudiness and some spotty light rain (and some interior area sleet) possible. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow (brief dustings at most) at times except light rain Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Wind S under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly near and south of I-90 except rain or snow Cape Cod. Snow accumulation of up to 3 inches south of I-90, traces or coatings to the north. Lows 25-32. Wind E 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, variable under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with spotty light snow early, then cloud/sun mix with passing snow showers possible. Highs 32-39. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SE under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain, possibly some sleet interior areas, favoring the morning hours. Highs 40-47. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
The weekend of January 11-12 starts very mild and ends much colder, with a transition from one to the other taking place as a frontal boundary and wave of low pressure bring mostly rain, which may end as mix/snow for northern and western areas. Fine tuning to come. Drier/colder interlude will be followed by moderating temperatures and more unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
A similar pattern, active weather, up and down temperatures, currently impossible to detail.

90 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK!
    A little snow globe snow out there right now. Between the flake size and the way they are slowly drifting downward almost looks Hollywood made.

  4. Thanks TK!

    According to Matt Noyes, no real opportunities for snow until maybe towards the end of the month. In passing he mentioned 2015 when the big snows began around late January.

    2. Yeah, I am not really excited about ANY prospects for snow, including
      tomorrow night. I’d be shocked if I picked up 1 inch at my house in JP.
      Absolutely blown away should that happen.

      This weather is so un-winter like, that I am actually thinking of going fishing.
      The only time I ever fished in January was ice fishing. Well ain’t no ice available, so I “may” try real fishing probably with live shiners as I can get those. Not sure
      I could get night crawlers this time of year. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Little Christmas to All.

    SC – PERFECT description of our snow globe….highlighted by the sun.

  8. Have yourself a Merry “Little Christmas” …

    That song changes meaning for me today, the last day of the Christmas season and the last day that I play the music and have the lights on…

    I realized I neglected to link SAK’s blog update but I will do that in a while.

    1. We go to a few different dollar stores the night before and get five items for each person and do a gift exchange on little christmas. (sometimes go to the reduced aisle of stores. 5 dollar limit though.) Highly recommended.

      1. I so love this. I pay it forward a lot but what an awesome thing to do on this special day. My oldest grand moves the wisemen closer to our manger every day starting Christmas. He is so excited when they arrive. He would love to do this. Thank you

    1. On that loop, pretty evident that the snow is going POOF as it approaches
      the coast. )!@*(#& *(!@#*(&!@*(#

  11. Back in my day by early January would have a nice white landscape of deep snow all around. I can recall in elementary school too many times not able to go out for recess for a couple weeks at a time until March. And this was in Boston, not some far distant Metro West suburb in the hills. Widespread bare ground persistently in the dead of winter like it is currently was almost rare growing up.

  14. JPD – not sure if my son is still fishing. He goes before work many days. I know his GF got him waders for Christmas and he asked for some sort of special surf casting rod. I say go fishing. Is there no longer a specific season for fishing. I seem to recall that there once was but that may have been self imposed due to colder weather.

      1. Awesome. Never made sense to me that the season stopped. But I saw that there is a now a keep limit. Maybe both were to keep an eye on overfishing??

  20. We don’t have to go way back in our memory bank to find a very cold start to January, namely, January 2018. We had a very cold finish to 2017 followed by a frigid start. A beautiful thing.

    I’m afraid this year will feature mid-winter conditions in early to mid March (sort of like last year), and by that time I’m no longer in a winter mood. Oh well.

  21. I have this beautiful math lesson going, masterful brilliance …… my students zoned in, or so I thought …….

    and with annoying interruption, 5 students say out loud ….. “its snowing out !!” (like 4 snow flurries I counted)

    BAH HUMBUG !!!! I say ….. and shut the curtains.

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. I’d have invited them all over to the window for a brief 5 minute break to view the flakes and then back to it. 🙂

  22. Thanks TK.

    Nice wintery scene this AM in Coventry CT with a steady light snow that produced a white coating on all surfaces including roads and sidewalks. The roads in our area were salted.

    Dave, you can mark me down for another 0.4″ of snow from today’s system.

    There was not much at all on the ground by the time I got to work in Manchester so the elevation definitely played a role in helping it to stick better back at the house.

  24. We have the snow globe effect now in Halifax. Slight sunshine with the big flakes falling ever so slowly to the ground. So pretty,

  25. Just curious as to how far southward Saturday, a shallow push of low level cold air makes it southward thru central areas of New England ??? See that chilly high to the north passing by, while the low approaches from the south ?

  26. I have a stuffed animal Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer. I’ve had him for many years, since I was a little boy. My children know that I anthropomorphize both living and stuffed animals (a little bit like Mr. Rogers). And so, my Rudolph is quite sad these days. As the Christmas tree came down yesterday, he hid in a corner of my living room. January is a tough month for Rudolph. And so a couple of hours ago I bought a small glass Christmas tree with ornaments, just for Rudolph to look at year-round. He came out of hiding and is staring at it right now, with a broad smile.

    1. Not so much gone wild as coinciding in a place with similar outcomes for this area… 🙂

    1. I know Greg. He lives in a region that often will hold snowcover when much of the rest of the region will lose it.

  33. 1st, I was hoping for a snow storm prior to going skiing before I left for St. Thomas I guess things don’t always work out. Watch when I leave you will get your snow storms.
    Anyways here are my thoughts about whats going on with the NFL and also the patriots.
    Playoffs.
    I hope for Jimmy G to get a ring. Titans are a good team that could make it to the afc championship. Who ever is in the NFC will be the winner of the superbowl unless its Baltimore then that will be a hard game fought but I really do not want them to win, I just dislike the ravens, not as much as the Giants but they are up there.

    In terms of the patriots. This season was no on Brady, this was no necessarily Bills fault either, they played a card game and instead of the royal flush they got three of a kind. Bill was looking at KC and saw the speed and knew he needed speed on defense and that’s what the patriots defense was meant for. Titans exposed that. We need some more run stuffers in the D-line and to maintain rest of the defense while doing so. People are going back to the running game after years of being pass happy but its a different type of running game.

    Patriots offense. this was not on Brady, this was not on Edelman, seeing a lot of criticism on these two people. Did Jules drop the ball a lot, yep but guess what he was still the #1 receiver and had over 1000 yards, while playing several injuries and people blanketing him with 2 and sometimes 3 people at a time. I am hoping with this next off season Harry can learn the darn playbook and learn how to run routes. The Pats need a bruising running back, an o-line not so susceptible to injuries, a TE and two receivers, one that can stretch the field and another that will eventually take Jules place. all this while looking for an offense coordinator as I feel Josh is gone. I also feel that Brady has another year or two left. Mean while they get their QB of the future in the draft in the second or third round. The dynasty is not over. I honestly not sure it ends with Brady. I also will say those who say it is, they still made it to the playoffs….. I would call it if they don’t make it to the playoffs for two years + until then kiss the rings. I feel Brady gets one more to push the patriots ahead of the stealers for most rings for a franchise before hanging them up.

    1. Was it Harry who was rated not nfl ready and about seventh down on list and BB picked him anyway. I know it was someone but stink at names

      Good comments Matt.

    1. with the talent the cowboys have, and Mike will be solely focus on coaching and learning his mistakes of not adapting to the changing NFL, he will have success look for that time to go into the playoffs next year.

  35. The reports were in the year off Mike McCarthy looked at a lot of NFL films and like you said Matt learning from his mistakes. It is an upgrade in coaching and it was clear the Cowboys wanted a coach with experience who could win now with the talent they have.

  37. 18z GFS continues to trend colder and colder for the second half of the weekend storm.

    After one mild day Saturday, temps crash Sunday with an eventual flip to ice then snow in most locations in SNE.

    7AM Sunday with ICE line into Boston….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020010618&fh=138

    By 1PM Sunday now snowing most areas…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020010618&fh=144

  39. Judah Cohen’s updated blog:

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    A couple things I took away from it:

    1. No real change in the indices the next two weeks (+AO,+NAO,-PNA, and MJO in Phase 4/5) which supports near to above normal temps and some ridging in the east and reduced snow chances.

    2. PV remains strong and centered near the North Pole where it has been most of the winter so far and no change expected in the two weeks at least. Until the PV is disturbed, it will be difficult to get cold air further south in North America. He doesn’t offer much insight as to if and when that will happen but mentions that it is very unusual for it to remain that strong the entire winter, citing only a couple analog years (the most recent 92-93).

    3. He posted the latest CFS which shows a cold February in the eastern US but states that he has”low confidence’ in that forecast.

    4. Reduced sea ice around Greenland and the Canadian Archipelagos can support -NAO but that has not transpired and no sign of it occurring in the near future.

  42. I am in snow camp for tomorrow night especially an all nighter . They want us in at 4am tomorrow incase it does anything tonight so Sign me up.Last I heard tonight is a snowless night .

  43. Harvey showed ONE outlier with widespread plowable snow for most of SNE but all the other models show only coatings – 2” at most.

    Harvey did emphasize that the outlier can’t totally be ruled out just yet! Is there hope or just hype?

  44. JJ, you’ve got a winner in Mike M. Mark my words, your Cowboys will be Superbowl winners next year. They have the talent. Now they have a good coach who doesn’t simply clap after every play (good or bad – I mean, Jason Garrett sometimes looked like he was coaching pee wee football). I’m not at all enamored by any of the NFC teams except the 49ers. That’ll be your biggest competition.

  47. 0Z HARR delivers 1.4 inches to Boston.
    21Z SREF more robust than the 15Z. 2.53 inches for Boston.

    0Z NAM coming out and that also looks to deliver snow.

  48. 0Z NAM has the 500mb amplifying pretty good, however, the 200 mb is still a bit too flat resulting in a more ENE track rather than NE. Still should at least graze us.
    Also, very sharp cut off to precip on the Northern edge of system. We shall see.

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