Thursday Forecast

63 Comments

2:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
High pressure brings fair, cold weather today. A warm front crosses the region Friday with cloudiness and no more than brief light rain/sleet favoring northern MA and southern NH, but more notably starts a significant warm-up, which will peak Saturday night after record-challenging high temperatures during the day Saturday which will not go down much that night. We’ll end up with rain-free conditions for a good part of the warm-up too as the ribbon of rain associated with an approaching frontal boundary will hold off until Saturday night, preceded by only a few rain showers late that afternoon. Low pressure will be heading into the Great Lakes during Saturday, with a strong southwesterly air flow between it and high pressure which will have shifted off the coast and strengthened a couple days after delivering our dry and cold start to this period. But another sprawling high pressure area across eastern Canada, supplying much colder air, will squelch that low pressure area as it attempts to enter Canada, basically turning it into a series of weakening low pressure waves rippling along that frontal boundary, which will sink through here during Sunday. The race between the end of the precipitation and air cold enough to support sleet/ice will be won by the precipitation, so just expected rain to come to an end, then drying as the temperature goes down during Sunday after a very mild start. By Monday, we’ll be in a colder air mass, and it looks dry at this time, but that frontal boundary will not be too far south of the region and some cloudiness may hang about as a result, so not going to go for complete clearing. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with spotty light rain/sleet favoring northern MA and southern NH morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers late-day favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Scattered rain showers evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely morning. Highs 55-62 morning, falling steadily thereafter to 38-45 by late-day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, becoming variable 5-15 MPH, then NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partial sun. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
Two low pressure systems potentially impact the region in a fast-moving west to east jet stream pattern. Current idea is that the first will be very weak and may pass largely south of the region January 14-15, and that the second one’s low center will pass north of the region with a warm front / cold front combo producing a period of rain then rain showers as it should be too mild to support frozen precipitation January 16-17. Timing and tracks may change and will fine-tune with future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Pattern remains active, but more cold air is going to become available nearby in Canada and we will need to start watching for an increasing risk of ice/snow becoming involved with passing low pressure systems.

63 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. The time frame of concern is a transition period between the current mild/wet pattern and the coming (what I think will be) cold/dry pattern. The second half of January is the time for that transition. Any snow events we’d get before that would need help to occur. Sometimes it seems the atmosphere “wants to snow”, other times it just simply does not.

  4. Had to use the TK backup while I reset something…

    Anyway I’m not really going to be in the very warm anomaly camp for the rest of January after this weekend’s spike. A lot of up and down, still mild overall, but not way above.

        1. Not the exact same temp has it in the 60s this weekend and 40s for a high temp tentatively till Friday of next weekend according to ch5 10 day & weather bug . I hope it continues past that but I do know we will be getting hit at some point. So far it’s been an easy winter.

            1. It doesn’t matter to me if it’s 25 or 45 just stating what’s been well advertised that’s all . I care about temps in the summer only .

  6. It seems that Logan received measurable snow yesterday after all (0.1 inch).

    Seasonal total to date = 11.6”

    1. Thanks Philip. I did not get that much. I could not measure, so it goes down
      as a trace at my house. Oh well.

  7. Thanks TK. Keeping fingers crossed for Saturday. We might just have our third Christmas if we can finally all be healthy enough to be together. In the 60s would be great. Although just being together is the best.

  9. Thanks TK.

    12F at the house this AM and felt frigid last night with the wind! Yet, just 48 hours from now most areas will be pushing towards the low 60’s. Gotta love New England…

    Would not be surprised if there was some thunder with the frontal passage overnight Saturday into Sunday AM.

    1. Still a waaaaaaaaaaaaaays down the road. 😉

      Note that I typed 14 “a’s” for each day between now and then. Too many inland runners/cutters can show up in the meantime.

  14. Thanks TK!
    Mark thanks for the spectacular pictures, we wow that squeal off the beach is amazing!
    If we do get some t storms perhaps some of those winds may mix down to give us some rather strong gusts.

  15. Darn auto correct. The squall off the beach. You’ll find the squeals during the summer. 🙂

  16. Thank you, TK.

    I hope the cold returns after next week, Mark, though I’m taking a wait-and-see approach.

    Today feels really good. I’m going to mildly disagree with TK. I do think that winters should feel like today. Not all the time, but surely more days than not. I’m really uncomfortable when it’s balmy in winter, at least when it lasts several days. That looks to happen this weekend. And next week looks much more like March than January, all week.

    It’s been extraordinarily mild in most of Europe. The article below is in Dutch, which you can Google translate. In sum, it says that the mild winters are good for saving money on energy costs, but are impacting flora and fauna. Birds are confused, and no longer migrating, for example. Mosquitoes aren’t dying like they’re supposed, as even nighttime frost has been sporadic at best in the Netherlands (perhaps 2 nights of frost this winter). Dutch mets are quoted in the article saying that January will continue to be very mild in Holland. I like the fact that they are frank in saying that forecasting February and March is fraught with tremendous uncertainty. It could get cold, but they’re not going to predict at this point in time. Dutch mets are not nearly as influenced by commercial interests. Vast majority are hired by the government. They report the facts and that’s that. Never any hype.

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2317948-opnieuw-een-zachte-winter-goed-voor-de-energierekening-en-de-muggen.html

    1. The way it feels depends on your location. Our location has always been one with variety, so pretty much anything you get fits into the category of “should”. 🙂 That’s how weather / climate work.

  17. Maybe ch 5’s 10-day .. or “5+5 day” or whatever the boss said they had to call it .. has 40s for most of the period next week but TK’s forecast doesn’t jive with that idea. 🙂 We’ll see which one is closer in 10 days. 😉

  18. The funny thing is we may have almost no highs in the 40s next week. I could see it going like this: Monday upper 30s, Tuesday middle to upper 30s, Wednesday lower 50s, Thursday 40s (oooh! ooh!), Friday 30s. Of course that depends on timing of things, but it’s quite conceivable. 🙂

    We may also break that string of Thursday being the coldest day, unless a cold front that is coming along moves faster than expected. 😉

  19. This isn’t really weather related, but can I just say that the health care system sucks! Not that you all didn’t know that already…

      1. My mother has not had a month in the last half year, or longer, in which she could just get her medications refilled without some kind of stupidity, ignorance, or just flat-out lies. She has a cough now that could have been prevented had she been allowed to have her medication that they denied her for nearly a week. And now she’s out of another medication and has called the doctor’s office FIVE TIMES being told they are sending it right over, and the drug store had still yet to hear from them. This has been going on since the middle of last week.

        1. I am so sorry to hear that. It truly sucks!!

          We just went through a similar experience.

          My wife has glaucoma and it is getting worse, so the
          docs want her to take eye drops where previously the laser
          holes were doing the trick. Problem is my wife is allergic
          to the damn preservatives the drug companies stick
          in the drops. So doc prescribes some special drops
          with no preservatives only they are expensive to the tune
          of $238 per month with a special coupon.
          I had to contact our insurance company and have the Dr
          contact the insurance company to insist that my
          wife needs these drops. So after several days he insurance company approves the drops. That is great, except the co-pay is $50.
          That is much better than $238. What IF I didn’t have
          the insurance? Let’s see shall we eat this month? or let my wife go blind???

          This SUCKS to no end!!!! I HATE IT)(!@#(&!()@&#*(!&@(*#&!(*@(&#*!&

          I am 100% with you on this TK.

          You need to raise a really loud stink so we can hear it across the state!!!

            1. You are right to complain the insurance system sucks & I have phenomenal health care available to me . Before I went to doctors pay copay all set that’s the end of it right . Wrong not only do I pay my copay I always get charged for shit I never had to before like bloodwork . System SUCKS!!!! I won’t even get started on my wife .

    2. First. Let me at them. No one messes with your mom. I have not had a problem with the physician side of things since going on Medicare. I also have BCBS supplement. But that doesn’t matter…just saves deductibles and copays. I have serious problems with the prescription part. Inhalers are 250 and one med I take for kidney stones is 100/mo. But no medication is ever turned down or delayed. EXCEPT from my primary care. I need a new one

      Can she find a new doctor?

      Most important. Your mom is in my prayers. Big hugs to her also

  20. CPC colder, snowier in their 8-14 day outlook today. Reflective of the enhanced snow chances when we start the transition between this pattern and the expected later winter pattern of cold/dry.

      1. Starting around January 18/19. No definitive end time. I see a couple hints that if that pattern gets going it may last into or even through the start of February.

    1. That will probably happen as myself & Philip have mentioned numerous times MLK timeframe always have a watcher or a storm it sounds like .

      1. And as I have mentioned numerous times, since the dates of MLK weekend vary between January 13 and January 21, you can pretty much say that about any 3-day period in the month of January. 🙂 There is nothing extra special about that 3 day period over any other. We’ve had a watcher for something within a couple days pretty much every day this month so far. That will probably continue for the remainder of the month as well.

        1. Although December 9 has surely had its share of impact storms on the date, I’m also aware that some of the large storms were around and not on that day.

          1. Absolutely. We have things that make periods of time, or dates, stand out for us. I was just looking at it from a climate standpoint. 🙂

            I was actually talking about the Dec 9 2005 snowstorm at work yesterday, in relation to the fact I was on a rare sick day from work due to recovering from a quick-hitting stomach virus. It was one of the best-timed sicknesses I’ve ever had, due to the weather. I’d have been in that commute.

            1. I was of. Ours Working at home but I was to have attended a meeting for Mass Bankers at the Marriott Newton. I ended up attending by phone. And that is the exact place Mac was stuck for hours in one spot

              It was an incredible storm

  22. Today’s sunset is already back to 4:30pm and yet the sunrise has been stuck at 7:13am since before New Year’s. This is why I rant so much about MORNING DARKNESS! It’s for real! 🙁

    1. Happens every year the exact same way too.

      I like the late sunrises right now because I need to get to the beach for a morning photo shoot one more time. 😉

  23. Just to let you know what folks like myself & SAK will be dealing with…
    Sunday at noon, Boston can be 65, or 40. You can make an equally strong case for either.

  25. GFS would like to deliver quite the shot of cold air next Thursday…
    That would continue the pattern of cold Thursdays we’ve been in most weeks since mid November.

  26. Rob Carolan, in his 6:45 report on Fall River’s WSAR, was talking up the potential of a pretty good ice storm in northern New England Sunday. (I think he said Sunday.) He said that Portsmouth NH could be in the 30s and Lawrence MA could in the upper 50s at the same hour.

  29. Edd Byrnes …kookie on 77 sunset Strip passed away’s 87. Along with a million others, I had a huge crush.

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