Friday Forecast

57 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
Only change to this forecast is to report that high pressure in eastern Canada will be slightly weaker than previously expected, allowing parent low pressure to track north of New England this coming weekend, so we push that warm front through today, and hold the boundary to the north until Sunday when the passing low drags it back across as a cold front, allowing for high temperatures near or above 60 in much of the region this weekend before a cool-down. Don’t look for complete clearing behind that system as the frontal boundary won’t get that far to the south and additional, though disorganized energy will be moving along that and across nearby Canada as well early next week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers late-day favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Scattered rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 58-65 by midday, then turning cooler. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partial sun. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain or snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain or snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
Two low pressure systems potentially impact the region in a fast-moving west to east jet stream pattern. First one should track north of the region with warm front / cold front combo producing brief mix to rain then rain later January 15 to rain showers which may end as snow showers January 16 as colder air returns. Fair, chilly January 17-18 then next system threatens with rain/mix/snow by end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Pattern remains active, but more cold air is going to become available nearby in Canada and we will need to start watching for an increasing risk of ice/snow becoming involved with passing low pressure systems.

57 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

      1. Yeah, kind of. The school part has been fine. My daughter’s winter after school activities are kicking in and while I enjoy getting them to those activities, the cumulative effect of being out and about from 6:30 am to 8 pm during w majority of the week nights adds up by weeks end.

        1. I sure appreciate that, Tom. Makes for a very long day. But also time spent chatting in the car to and from. Your older daughter is still pretty far from license age??

        2. Sorry to hear and what you didn’t mention was
          the school work (preparation, correcting etc.) that must be done when you finally do get home.

          teachers have a very very difficult job and are way
          too unappreciated.

          Your students are privileged to have you!

            1. Vicki when can I see the final match of Jeopardy as I’ve watched the last 3 nights but it resumes regularly now is that correct

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Records should start falling by late afternoon or early evening tomorrow. Pay attention to the `low’ temperature tomorrow night. I think it’ll be astonishingly warm. It’ll be mild compared to some summer nights and most fall nights.

    Tom, my heroes have always been the teachers and mentors in my life, and also those who’ve been in my children’s lives.

    Unfortunately, Fridays don’t feel like Fridays for me anymore. I like my independence a lot (I don’t like office environments, and I detest meetings), but being self-employed and still relatively fledgling means every day’s more or less the same. Contracts and gigs have also been very hard to come by in the past 5 weeks. If I was a marketing expert it would be different (that’s what most companies are looking for these days), but I’m not (nor do I want to be).

  13. Thank you, TK…
    It’s 2:45 and I second the motion, TGIF!!!!

    As always, thanks to all for all the kind words about teachers. I absolutely love what I do. I am in the middle of my 37th year as a Spanish teacher. I love working the the kids! I hope I make a small difference in their lives, academically and socially. Growing up in the 2020s seems to be far more challenging for young people these days than it was in the 1970s for me or at least I remember it being.

    Here, at Middleborough High, we work on a semester schedule, so I am getting the kiddos ready for their finals on school days 88 and 89, January 24 and 27, so there wasn’t much time to “ease” back into the flow from the Winter Break. I start with three new classes and students on January 28.

    I notice a pretty potent line of storms in central OK and northeast Texas right now. Might try to find a TV station there that is living streaming in case of tornadoes. Will share if I do. I will do that in the comfort of my living room as I am still at my classroom desk!!!! 🙂 Time to skedaddle!!

    1. Thank you, CF, for all you do. Muchas gracias, y buena suerte con tu trabajo.

      I think social media, an even more instantaneous culture that’s suffering from attention deficit disorder en masse, and extreme polarization politically, culturally, and socially, make the 2020s more difficult to grow up in than the 1970s. Every decade has its own unique characteristics. Believe me, I don’t romanticize the 1970s. But, I do think life was simpler then, just as it was simpler still in the 1950s. Not better, but simpler. There is a difference.

      1. Hey, I did all of my grade school and Jr. High during the 50s. so yes, I know how it was then. 🙂 Much simpler.

    2. Awesome.

      Did I mention here that our daughter is also a Spanish teacher, teaching
      at Medfield High.

      She was in High School AP Spanish at Boston Latin school and at Boston College, they ran out of Spanish courses that could challenge her, so they had her enroll in graduate courses. She has her BA from Boston College and MA
      from Framingham State University.

      Teaching is a very under appreciated profession for sure.

  14. JPD…What year did your daughter graduate from Framingham State? I graduated in 1988 with a BA in Geography with a Concentration in Environmental Management (just for the record). Of course when I was there it was named a “College”. 🙂

      1. My oldest attended. My youngest’s husband graduated several years ago. He did four years in three and was deans and presidents list all three years. Sorry. I’m an unashamedly proud mother in law

    2. She graduated from Boston College around 1994.
      She didn’t attend Framingham until much later as she needed the
      Masters to increase her pay and keep her job, Medfield being very
      particular about their teachers. She receive her Masters about 10 years ago.

  15. Thanks TK. Happy Friday all!

    It seems like we get a couple days like this Saturday-Sunday each winter, in terms of anomalous warmth where we’re 25-35 degrees warmer than average. This weekend is certainly among the more impressive winter warm-ups that I’ve seen though. It’s a fitting culmination, though not quite the end of, what has been a very persistent warm pattern for a few weeks now. The parallels between this winter and last winter so far have not been lacking, which is something I’ve been very happy to see with regards to my winter forecast as that is one of the big points I stressed. Winter’s return is looming by next weekend, though I’m not sure how long it will last.

    On Sunday I’ll be driving up to Boston for the AMS conference. I suspect my windows will be down rolling into the city 🙂

  20. Here ya go….let’s book it!

    Jeremy Reiner
    @jreineron7
    22h

    This one is for the snow lovers….last time temps in Boston & Worcester both reached the 60s in January was 2008…. for both cities, above normal snow occurred in February of 2008. #7news

      1. Yep, and that is actually not an uncommon scene around Flagstaff at all during the winter. They are way up there in elevation and typically 30-40 degrees colder than Phoenix. Arizona Skibowl, where Dave often posts webcam shots from, is not far from there.

        1. Arizona Snow Bowl is actually within the city limits of
          Flagstaff and they average 268 inches of snow per year
          and are about 2500 feet higher in elevation at the base than Flagstaff is. Flagstaff about 7,000 feet.

        2. Yes. This is a snowy part of the Southwest. The Mass State Climatologist loved to point that out when I worked with him. 🙂

  22. 70F is a very good possibility this weekend in spots. What’s more impressive is tomorrow night’s `low’ temperature. It may not get below 60F in many locales. While I’ve experienced this a couple of times in my life, it’s unusual.

    The reset next weekend may occur. I’m a little skeptical. Even so, I don’t think it’ll get cold enough for the Charles to freeze over completely in Boston. This would be the second straight winter the river has not frozen over completely in Boston. Thick and contiguous ice formation gets progressively difficult in February and March.
    .
    I so miss January 2003 and 2004. Not very snowy, but consistently really cold and sunny, with tremendously thick ice over the Charles. Some of my all-time favorite winter periods in Boston.

  23. The NBC-10 met used the word SNOWSTORM for next weekend. His exact words, not mine. Gotta love those 10-day forecasts in this case. 🙂

    I do wonder though if Pete would have used that “s” word. 😉

    1. He wouldn’t have used the term “snowstorm”. I think in this case it was just used without really thinking it through. If you put that word out there on the air for something that’s day 9 or 10, people are going to take it and run with it, but they should know better just the same.

  24. 18z GFS on board as well for a significant storm next weekend. This run verbatim would be snow to mix/rain to snow for SNE with all snow and heavy accumulations across CNE and NNE.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011018&fh=216

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011018&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    If this were to track and redevelop a bit farther south, we’d be looking at a sizable hit.

    Still a ways off….

    1. Today is my day to remove all the stuff from outside. Planned it perfectly. 😉
      Ok got lucky… 😛

      1. Christmas number three today….we planned it according you you’re forecast…….which was perfect 🙂

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