Saturday Forecast

77 Comments

8:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
I joked on the Woods Hill Weather Facebook page yesterday that it would be a “back to the 60s weekend”, referring to 2 days of high temperatures reaching or exceeding 60 degrees, and that indeed will be the case. I was concerned that a frontal boundary would slip down the coast from the northeast and change things up for some areas on Sunday, but that front will remain to the north and the boundary from the west will be charging east, eventually putting an end to the 2-day warm-up. Today will be a rain-free day, although you probably already have noticed damp surfaces starting yesterday and continuing today. This is due to the warmer, relatively humid air making contact with colder surfaces and the moisture condensing there. It’s the same process you see when you get water condensation on the outside of a cold glass of the beverage of your choice. So any wet ground today is not due to rain, but due to that. The only real rain threat comes in the form of numerous showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday morning, from west to east, as the cold front sweeps through. We’ll have to keep a close eye on this activity as winds not too far above the ground will be very strong, and any convective shower or thunderstorm activity can bring some of these winds down to the surface, potentially producing damaging gusts. It will remain breezy behind the front as it clears out rapidly by Sunday afternoon, and the temperature will go down, though this is not an arctic air mass invading so we won’t have one of those temperature nose-dives this time. After this goes by, high pressure shifts eastward through the Maritime Provinces of Canada and as a result a little weak easterly flow sets up here and may produce enough low level moisture for a few rain/snow showers on the Capes (Cod & Ann). The active pattern continues as then we will be impacted by 2 low pressure systems before this 5-day period is over, the first being a disjointed system with energy passing by both to the north and to the south of southeastern New England, setting up a risk of rain showers late-day and evening on Tuesday. The second system looks slightly more potent and should have a stronger low pressure area heading from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes toward northern New England by Wednesday night, returning a chance of rain to the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Cloudy morning with numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67 occurring by midday then cooling to the 50s during the afternoon. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, potentially strong and locally damaging gusts during the passage of showers/storms, shifting to W 15-25 MPH by afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/snow showers possible Cape Cod & Cape Ann. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely at night. Highs 42-49. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
The storm system that arrives late Wednesday will exit at the start of this period with a rain shower risk early January 16 followed by wind and falling temperatures. Fair, colder January 17 setting up the potential for a winter storm of snow/mix/rain during the January 18-19 weekend, timing and details to be determined, followed by clearing and colder weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
The active weather pattern will continue with one or two precipitation threats and colder air around, so additional snow/mix will likely be involved with these threats.

77 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    The system for the 19th is looking warmer with each run. Still plenty of time, so we shall see.

      2. I’m doubtful on a truly cold finish to the month. More of the same, with occasional very short-lived colder interludes. Upper 30s and low 40s during the day is not cold, especially when the average daytime high around January 20th in Boston is 34F (our historically coldest point in the year).

    1. Goo morning Smarterchild. I don’t know if you are new or if you aren’t and changed your handle. If new, then WELCOME!!!

      1. Thank you for the welcome. Long time reader but I have only joined the discussion once or twice before. Looking forward to commenting more and more importantly our next blizzard.

  7. I realize that a large change in atmospheric teleconnections can change things to very cold, very quickly.

    With that said, there are still some things that would moderate cold air intrusions for a while.

    According to Great Lakes ice monitoring, there is 1.8% ice cover currently on the Great Lakes. 1.8 % !!!!! On the flip side, this could generate some impressive late season lake effect snow.

    Relative to average, the Atlantic Ocean features 1 to 2C positive anomalies over a large area, which has to be pumping an above average amount of heat into the atmosphere, probably encouraging the Bermuda high and southeast ridge in their development.

    So, like Joshua, I’m somewhat hesitant to buy into a much below temp scenario towards the last third of the month.

  9. Tom, you’re much better informed on weather than I am. You laid out some of the reasons I believe the upcoming cold will not be so cold. It’s a remarkably mild winter across most of the states, as it is across virtually all of Europe (record-shattering, once again).

    The buds on Beacon Street want to come out. I don’t think they will. But, 2 days of this warmth, plus many more days in the 40s may cause some early bud eruptions.

    Logan may hit 67F today.

    A number of points southwest of Boston will hit 70F.

  10. Temperatures are overperforming out there like it’s April. Basically the combination of a little more sunshine than expected, lack of snow cover, and an extremely rare (near unprecedented) upper air pattern which is wreaking havoc on the models, especially statistical guidance, because they literally don’t know what they’re looking at.

    That’s why I’m interested to see what happens when that band of showers/storms comes through tomorrow. Anomalous situations tend to produce anomalous results, so I’d expect some surprises early tomorrow morning.

      1. Nope, still in NJ. Will make the trek up tomorrow. The conference is in the Seaport District so I’ll be staying up there. Will try to pass along a couple pictures during the week!

      1. That’s probably a longshot, but I do think there is the potential for strong to damaging winds. TK has mentioned this also.

      2. We’ve had them in winter periodically always. We used to miss them in the days before 88D radar & beyond.

  12. From NWS Boston
    At 11 AM we have 2 new records so far. Boston reached 65 with the old record 62 in 1975 and PVD hit 62 with the old record 61 in 1975.

  13. Hopefully next weekend’s event won’t produce as much of a mix like last the last one which left ice on streets and sidewalks for days thereafter. It was a flash freeze that didn’t give most to clean up.

    Back-to-back MLK Weekends…coincidence of course. 😉

    2. As I said, pick out ANY 3 day period. There will usually be a weather event involving low pressure. There is ZERO different about this particular weekend over any other 3-day period in January.

  14. Thanks, TK and hi, friends!

    A quick look on tornadohistoryproject.com and, according to this source (which has been pretty accurate), there never has been a reported tornado in Massachusetts in the month of January, nor the entire New England region or the entire state of New York. The closest one was in Scranton PA, an EF1 on 01-14-92.

    There have been two in December, including an EF2 on 12-18-51 on Martha’s Vineyard.

    There were two EF1s on February 25, 2017 out near Amherst.

    1. I know we’ve never had a reported tornado in MA in January, but that doesn’t mean that has never actually been one. As previously stated, a lot of these low level “spin-ups” (hate that term immensely because they are tornadoes, not spin-ups), have been missed in the days prior to the radar tech we have now. Either way, one would be able to easily figure out that tornadoes outside of the warm season are much more rare than during the warm season.

  15. 68 at Logan, 70 at Norwood and 66 here in JP. I trust my 66 here before the temps at Norwood and Logan. 🙂 🙂

    1. I had it pointed out to me by a stickler for accuracy (he reads but doesn’t comment and it’s not SAK) that Norwood’s temps are CRAP, as is Logan’s, which we already knew. I’d give Logan 66 and Norwood 67.

      1. I am with you 110% on this. I have suspected Norwood for awhile.

        I am at 67 here in JP and my new Davis Instruments thermometer
        which has been pretty good. I’ll continue to monitor and calibrate as necessary, if necessary. However, I have been pleased with its
        accuracy so far.

  16. Temps have peaked out, now a bit of a slide back will begin, but tonight is going to be very very mild for mid January. Enjoy if you can! We won’t be having too many days this anomalous this winter. In fact, we really haven’t until now.

    1. For the record, I agree with TK that the airport sensor seems consistently too warm at least by a degree or two.

  25. Oops, correction. SPC has SE Mass, Cape and the Islands in the “Thunderstorm” category (light green), not “Slight Risk” which is in the other direction of severity in yellow on the legend.

    The latest (22z) HRRR wind gust map (which is 77% in) has Taunton with a 48-knot wind gust at 8 am tomorrow.

  27. 70’s in January:

    1876 – 70
    1950 – 72
    2019 – 70
    2019 – ??

    * Never has 70F ever occurred twice in January. I would also be curious if 70 has ever occurred twice in an entire winter season for that matter.

    1. Google is your friend.

      It happened 4 times in March 2012 (before the first day of spring). It also happened 3 more times after that the same month (including a high of 83 on the 22nd).

  31. Patriots lost to a very good team. I think the Titans will beat Baltimore. Of course, the media will talk about a Baltimore choke job. It is not that. Henry is the best back in a very long time. In fact, you’re witnessing an historic run. Speed, strength. Titans also have an excellent coach. I can’t stand the Ravens, so I’ll be happy to see them eliminated.

    1. The man’s insanely talented.

      It’s good night, Ravens. See you later. They’re cooked, and you can see it in their expressions. Wow!

      Titans could be on one of those Cinderella runs. I hope so.

  33. While I like Lamar Jackson, he’s got to be more composed. He’s letting way too much negative energy spill over onto the team. They’re having to calm him down, which is not good.

    1. One never knows … Impressive passing from Lamar, and of course running skills. He’s immensely talented.

  35. So happy the ravens were destroyed, the patriots played better vs the titans plus dislike the ravens coach and the ravens attitude. Patriots also did themselves a disservice with some of the hype videos

  37. Of course, Boston didn’t actually hit 70 on Saturday. Just the thermometer said that, but it’s incorrect. Too bad it goes into the record books as another bad number.

      1. 68 I can buy. I was 68 here as well. Norwood, Boston, Lawrence, Manchester, Beverly, and several others around here are too warm. They are scattered all over the country. All too warm, usually the errors are 1 or 2 degrees. In some cases they are more.

  38. People really need to stop confusing weather with climate. The person that screams that a 60 degree day in January is solely due to climate is making the same error that a person that screams that a day in the teens in November is solely due to climate. Those events are weather events. Climate is different than daily weather, even though they two have a longer-term relationship.

    Here’s a really bad example that I saw on Facebook: Person posts picture of woolly worm caterpillar walking across the road Saturday and declares “if you don’t believe in climate change, you better start now”. Woolly worms are observed in the US and southern Canada and emerge primarily in the late summer and autumn, and over-winter in this form, freezing solid then thawing out and becoming active on warm winter days and of course finally when we don’t have below freezing cold any longer at some point in the spring, when they will complete their transition. I can remember seeing these things on warmer winter days as a child. Also (again, this happens every year) I had someone tell me they’ve never seen flowers pop up in January here before. They may want to familiarize themselves with the several species of flower that bloom in the winter around here, and pay more attention. Boston’s all time January record of 72 in 1950 was a weather event, not a climate event, as were the other 2* times Boston has hit 70 in January. I say 2* because it’s going into the record books as 3 other times (4 total), because of Saturday’s erroneous 70 degree reading (bad thermometer).

    And I know I should not have to note this, but I will. The above statement is 1) not political, and 2) not a statement on what I think is or isn’t happening. I’ve already made my viewpoint as a scientist very clear on the relationship between weather and climate and that stands as it is.

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