Monday Forecast

81 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)
A wave of low pressure on a frontal boundary to the south will toss some cloudiness into the region today over the top of ocean-effect cloudiness coming in on an northeasterly surface flow due to high pressure in eastern Canada. There will be enough low level moisture to produce some rain or snow showers over Cape Cod and a few snow showers for the North Shore, especially Cape Ann, during the day today, with a few flakes back toward I-95 over eastern MA as well. Moisture associated with the wave to the south will stay away. Another disturbance heading eastward from the Tennessee Valley will pass south of New England Tuesday night while a system in the northern jet stream tracks from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley. A trough of low pressure connecting these systems will bring some light precipitation, mainly rain but possibly a bit of sleet, to the region late Tuesday. A small bubble of high pressure brings dry weather for the day Wednesday, but the pattern of quick-moving systems means the next low pressure area will be approaching later Wednesday and will cross the region Wednesday night and the first half of Thursday with some precipitation, favoring mix southern NH and northern MA and rain southern MA southward, although this looks like a minor system, precipitation-wise. After it gets by it will intensify and drag down colder air from Canada later Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. Enough cold air will be in place so that when the next in a series of low pressure areas comes along Saturday, everybody will likely start at snow. It remains to be seen if the precipitation will stay snow everywhere. The early indications on the low track is that it will be further south than some of our previous systems, but close enough so that a rain/snow line may be involved. It’s too early for amounts and details of rain versus snow or timing of precipitation, but that will be fine-tuned as it gets closer. The updated detailed forecast follows…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible near eastern coastal areas favoring Cape Cod (may mix with rain there) and Cape Ann MA. Highs 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers except sleet/snow showers possible southern NH and around the MA/NH border. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain late but possible mix southern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers except mix/snow showers northern MA / southern NH. Clouds/sun midday-afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)
Winter storm threat January 18-19 in which the track of the storm will determine a rain/snow line. Early idea is that everybody starts as snow Saturday, greatest impact Saturday night but a mix/change line favors the areas south of I-90, and storm makes an exit during Sunday with windy and cold weather following for the remainder of the MLK Jr Weekend through Monday January 20. Fair, cold weather January 21 and we may be watching another storm threat by January 22.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)
Snow/mix/rain threat at start and end of period. Fair weather between. Temperatures near to below normal.

81 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Ocean effect mist in the air down here.

    Looking forward to the early and mid-week model runs on next Saturday’s system. The preceding airmass looks decent, as currently modeled.

  6. Boston’s high temperature yesterday of 74 smashed the previous record of 61 set in 2017. I have two questions:
    (1) Was the thermometer already reading too high in 2017?
    (2) When was the last time that Boston’s high temperature was 13 degrees or more above the previous record high? This seems like it could be a record-setting record-setting!

    1. 1) Yes.

      2) I believe both record lows and record highs have been double digits, this I’d have to verify. Right now all we have are record “lies”. 😉

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I can confirm that stuff is falling from the sky. The bigger stuff is/was frozen, where
    I could not tell on the smaller “stuff”.

    There are echos on radar with some heavier stuff about to move into the city
    from the ocean. Temp is about 36, so this could come down in either or both
    forms. We shall see.

  8. Saturday sure looks to feature a front end thump of snow, however models
    vary greatly on how long it snows before flipping to rain.

    I can concur that last evening Wankum through out an initial estimate
    of 3-6 inches which appears to be a model blend to me. 🙂

    2. It was, and whatever that do they do but I will never change my opinion that model numbers on air days in advance are not a good idea. I’ve been doing this a long time. It adds zero value to a 5 or 6 day forecast. In fact, it hurts it.

      1. I totally and completely agree.

        Something like: “it looks it will start as snow, but change to rain at some point. Too early to know just yet. Stay tuned to future broadcasts.”

        Management could use that as a tool to attract viewers.

  10. The rain / snow line will make it to the intersection of RT 135 and Bishop and Beaver Street in Framingham at Saturday at 10:57pm

    1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!

      Good one JMA.
      I wasn’t sure if those were real streets or not. They are and I know
      that intersection very well, just didn’t know the names of the streets other
      than Waverly.

      Here is a map with a blue rain/snow line. Perhaps a met can use it on
      tonight’s broadcast>??????

      https://imgur.com/a/1nhdFDe

    2. Damn it–I’m like 2 miles east of there–but I’m a bit north of Route 9 so perhaps that will keep me the all snow zone…:)

      1. Yes, I am being ass, but I feel like this is where forecasting is going. The pressure to have all the finite details 144 hours in advance is building an unreasonable expectation of the certainty of outcomes.

    2. Perhaps not. 12Z GFS does NOT agree with the NAM and takes the
      Thursday system to our North giving us a bit of rain.

  14. 12z run of GFS shows that start time of the snow pretty similar to the 0z EURO. GFS was faster with the start of the snow. This run has the snow starting early Saturday afternoon and there will be a change to rain for most. Before the change looks like a general 3-6 inches of snow.

  17. Which, based on experience, makes sense.

    We know that front end thumps can be productive, but not to the extent of what previous runs of the GFS showed.

    This looks more reasonable though for southern areas.

  18. https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow_depth_im

    The paradox of the previous pattern with all of our warm sectors and cutters, is that it has built up a deep snow cover not too far north of the Canadian border.

    This, in turn, can reinforce cold airmasses to our north ahead of miller B type systems AND, should any arctic airmasses dive southeast, deliver them in not too modified a condition to New England.

  19. From Meteorologist John Homenuk for the weekend storm potential.
    Very complicated winter storm likely to evolve this weekend in New England. While synoptics aren’t overly favorable at first glance, be careful with potential for a “thump” of snow in the N Mid Atl and New England. The antecedent airmass is anomalously cold and dry.

  21. Not weather related.

    MLB lowers the boom on the Astros. GM and manager suspended 1 year, team fined $5,000,000 and club loses 1st and 2nd round picks next 2 years.

    Harsh penalty expected for Alex Cora and the Red Sox. Probably a 1 or multi year suspension, similar type fine and similar type draft penalty would be my guess.

    2. In fact, I may be low on the suspension time, because Cora is accused of leading the illegal cheating in Houston and then bringing that practice to the 2018 Red Sox. So, he is accused of doing this twice.

      1. Cheating’s bad. Plain and simple. Glad MLB is imposing stiff penalties. And yes it’s a blemish on Cora.

        1. I just hope MLB doesn’t take away our World Series 2018 Trophy. Back in the 1990’s the NCAA took away the UMass final four. I believe their record literally wiped off their official record. Not even an *asterisk.

  22. There not taking away the Astros 2017 World Series Championship so the Red Sox 2018 World Series won’t be taking away. With that said if Astros manager AJ Hinch gets a one year suspension without pay you would expect Alex Cora to have the same if not worse punishment.

  23. AJ Hinch and Jeff Lunhow fired by the Astros. I wonder if this is what will happen to Alex Cora and the Red Sox will be searching for a new manager.

  24. 18Z NAM says ha ha ha ha to any snow for Thursday. The 12Z was the NAM at 84 hours, not in it’s range, for sure.

    1. I’m leaning away from any snow for that system myself, outside of a bit northern MA / southern NH. Not enough cold air in the bank after the weakling system Tuesday night.

  25. Afternoon Ideas…

    MJO awakens and will play a little more regular role I believe. But for the moment it’s not going to be in a phase that forecasters would say is favorable for snow. But it may defy the current GFS Ensemble forecast and navigate to 8 in short order, or slightly more than short order. Bottom line: We need to keep an eye on it.

    As for practical model usage for guidance, I’m starting to favor a slower evolution of the weekend system and a slightly colder solution. That would mean snow would arrive Saturday night instead of daytime, and that a rain/snow line may end up further south. I’m not sold on this. It’s just kind of an early idea. We’re surely not done seeing model trends since we still have several days between now and whatever the event turns out to be.

    Before the weekend: No real changes in what I said above in the blog post. The Thursday morning system will be more potent than the Tuesday evening one, but that low center likely cuts across central New England and we end up with an occluded frontal passage, or a warm front / cold front combo with a brief visit by a warm sector. It’s behind that we will see a shot of modified arctic air putting temperatures to the negative side of normal for Friday, setting things up for the potential winter weather event.

    After the weekend: Wind/cold for MLK Jr Day. Cold/less wind January 21. It’s not on some models yet but there is a bit of a signal for a storm off the East Coast middle of next week that we may need to watch here. Target dates January 22-24. Medium range guidance is divergent, but that’s not a surprise. We’re going to be in the midst of pattern transition at that time and transitions confuse our dear model friends. 😉

    Way (far) out: Eventually we go cold/dry, but getting there might put our seasonal snow totals right back to or even a little ahead of average, assuming things play out just so. It only takes 2 or 3 events to do that, sometimes one if it’s a biggie.

  26. Oh yes, for what it’s worth, CPC’s outlooks just issued for 6-10 & 8-14 both show below normal temps and for the 6-10 put SNE right in between a wet area to the north and a dry area to the south, while the 8-14 indicates a higher probability of drier than average. While I tend to have a dry bias, I’m not so sure I believe that dry forecast for 8-14. We may pick up a fair percentage of our winter snow during that time period if things break a certain way.

  27. Lot can happen for that storm on Saturday lots of runs before that . I guarantee you Cora is going to be fired & he should be if there is solid evidence he’s a cheater .

    1. MLB has dropped the gavel on Houston is awaiting the results of the investigation of the Red Sox. I think Cora will be suspended for quite a while by MLB. He is long gone from Red Sox. The Astros GM and their manager received a year suspension and Cora was identified as the ringleader of the whole thing in Houston. He took the scheme to Boston with him. I would not be surprised if he got a 2 – 3 year suspension.
      Report is here: https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/cglrhmlrwwbkacty27l7.pdf

      1. Yeah he’s gone I bet the Sox fire him before suspension comes out I mean they should boot his crooked ass out ASAP

  28. Tk looks like those projected temps in the 40s this week may pan out with the exception of Friday which was well advertised lol . Had to say it buddy all in fun

    1. Actually you said on your post on January 9 “mid 40s”. And still, not going to be the case. Even without correcting for the sensor error, Boston reached the lower 40s today (actual high was 41, recorded as 43). They should miss the mid 40s again Tuesday, lower 40s tops. Wednesday, no middle 40s either, should break 50. Thursday, perhaps they have a shot at middle 40s for one day. Friday, much colder. So if one day is most of the week, that will make Harv’s 7-day forecast from last Thursday correct. 😉

  30. Report from Ft Myers. As I previously said, this past Tues-Fri was Chamber of Commerce weather. Sat-today new high temps were set in Naples each of the 3 days, and 2 out of 3 days in Ft Myers and plenty of HUMIDITY. It looks like it will continue for another few days, but then things will moderate.

    As for me, back to Boston tomorrow night and I expect the WHW community will arrange for me to arrive to temps in mid 60’s, clear skies, light winds and very low DP.

    1. Probably not. We’d need quite a bit of rainfall for that to be set-up. I don’t think that’s how it’s going to play out for most areas.

  40. I am really not liking the trends for the weekend storm. To me, looking more and more wet. Still some time.
    As I stated above I do Not like the set up at all. The question is how long can we hang onto snow. Less and less time with each run knowing full well that a run does not necessarily equate to reality.

  41. It is not going to be huge. Model QPF has come back to more reasonable .75 to 1. I think it might trend lower, with a flatter, colder system. More white than wet for many. Slower onset than depicted. Think late Saturday evening / night into Sunday morning event. Fairly progressive.

    1. Agree. Slower onset, colder, less precip. But despite slower onset doesn’t hang around too long into Sunday.

  42. It’s only Monday the storm or so called snow storm is many days away & many computer runs .

    1. Yup. And that’s why I don’t give #’s until about 3 days before. Nothing new here. But it’s a bit early also to refer to it as a “so-called snowstorm”.

      It’s a “potential winter weather event”.

  43. Leaving today I’m going back down to St.Thomas down there mostly cloudy winds of 25 to 30 mph with rain showers. You know why you will get a good snow storm because I won’t be here

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