Tuesday Forecast

53 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)
We’ll be in the firing line of low pressure areas during the next 5 days with 2 passing by and 1 approaching by the end of the period. The first is actually a double miss, one passing south, one passing north, during tonight, but a trough bridge between the 2 will bring rain showers, though those may be mixed with sleet and/or snow in southern NH as the air will be marginally cold enough there to support some frozen precipitation. We’ll have a slightly stronger low passing eastward across central New England early Thursday, mainly a rain producer for our area, with this time the snow being to the north of the forecast area. Behind that second system we get a delivery of much colder air which you will feel for sure, along with wind, by Thursday night and Friday. By Saturday we’re still cold but the wind will have settled down, but clouds will be on their way back in ahead of a winter storm threat, which arrive Saturday night – slightly slower timing than expected previously. On tomorrow’s blog update we’ll re-visit this threat in more detail, but for now expect a snow/mix/rain scenario for the mid portion of the weekend. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers except sleet/snow showers possible southern NH and around the MA/NH border. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain late but possible mix southern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers except mix/snow showers northern MA / southern NH. Clouds/sun midday-afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind N 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow except snow/mix/rain south arriving at night. Highs 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)
Winter storm moves out January 19 replaced by windy/cold weather through January 20, then dry and more tranquil weather for January 21. Continued cold but may have to watch storminess evolving south of the region by the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)
One or two low pressure systems may impact the region, snow/mix favored over rain. Uncertain how the pattern evolved specifically so will re-evaluate this on coming updates.

53 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Almost half way through the month of January ( YES ) and we are an amazing 12.5 degrees above average ! But , a colder pattern begins late Thursday .

  3. Thanks TK !

    Without looking at snow map projections, it appears the last 12-24 hrs on the models have featured a slightly further north and west track to the primary low for next weekend. Still looks like cold air is present for the front end, but perhaps the front end thump does not look as impressive today as it did 12-24 hrs ago.

    1. Agree 100%. Disappointing for sure.
      With this set up, not surprising in the least bit. 🙂

      Perhaps it will change, but My fear any changes are for farther North and West
      track of Primary with even less snow up front. It’s pretty paltry as it is, perhaps
      1-3 or 2-4 at best.

      We shall see.

          1. 1-3 or 2-4 will get me plenty of overtime . I just need it in well before midnight Sunday so it makes next weeks check .

        2. SSK I replied to your post about the “mid 40s” for this week. So far Boston is 0 for 1. We’ll see if they make 44 today. Tomorrow they’ll go above it. They may finally land there for one day Thursday.

  5. My guess is that it will take a few more cold airmasses in the coming days after this upcoming weekend to finally get an all snow event around here. The colder the atmosphere over SNE the more likely approaching storms will be able to pass somewhat well south and not hug the coastline so much, if that makes any sense. Maybe I’m overthinking it?

  7. Looks about how I thought it would. But slow the arrival, colder atmosphere, quicker end to steadiest precip.

    1. TK – Does it makes sense for my friend at work to drive his family to NYC Sat. am? He can cancel his hotel tomorrow. Thanks for any insights from you or others.

  9. While I certainly welcome the earlier departure I am somewhat puzzled given the later arrival for Saturday evening. Logic would dictate a later morning, if not early afternoon departure on Sunday.

    Interesting that “logic” doesn’t always work. As long as it makes my 6-7AM commute to work easier.

  10. re: Saturday

    Euro doesn’t have much. About 3 inches 10:1 and 2 inches Kuchera.
    One these runs, it will be down to Zero as the storm tracks through Manitoba.

    If it’s going to track that far West, then let it be just RAIN. Why bother with any snow
    at all.

    Did I ever say how much I detest cutters?

  11. Boston’s 0 for 2 on mid 40s. They got low 40s yesterday and today (probably 41 & 40 after you correct for the error). About 50 or 51 tomorrow, 45 then falling Thursday, lower 30s tops on Friday.

    1. He said 40s so if I said upper or lower does it matter . Ch 5 was right they had 40s most of the week

      2. Dude. You’re telling me ch 5 was right, they had 40s most of the week, yet most of the week hasn’t happened yet. And you said “mid 40s”. It DOES matter. You can’t shove someone’s forecast in my face to try to show me I’m wrong and then change up what you said. It doesn’t work like that. I responded to your “mid 40s” and said I did not agree with it. Boston was not in the mid 40s either of the first 2 days this week. They may get there Thursday. They’ll go above it tomorrow and be far below it Friday. But hey, 1 out of 5 ain’t bad eh?

        If you like ch 5’s numbers better than mine, then just go with them all the time. I won’t be offended. 🙂

  12. TK, you say the trend to colder is under way.
    I presume you mean the transition to colder weather
    and not that the Saturday system is trending colder and snowier.

        1. The transition to a colder pattern, but the storm from I-90 north is probably going to be 75% to 100% in the form of snow depending on exact location. I think most of the precipitation of any consequence will be over before it warms up enough to produce rain.

      1. This system was never destined to pass south of New England. The set-up was for snow on the front side of it and the bulk of the precipitation to fall before a change-over. I believe that happens anywhere away from the immediate shore. I also think the GFS may be too fast with the onset of the entire thing.

        1. Do you think we can get dinner in Saturday evening
          (res at 7PM) prior to onset? Or could we arrive prior, but come home in it? thanks

            1. My wife wants to cancel if it snows.
              I’m all for going. I love driving in the snow. We’ll see as it gets closer.

  16. JJ. What a match it has been. All three are magnificent. Sportsmanship at its VERY finest. All three winners in my book

  18. Looks like MJO will slide across phases 6 and 7 during the coming several days and may get close to phase 8.

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