Thursday Forecast

121 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)
Low pressure departs and intensifies as it moves away via the Gulf of Maine and southeastern Canada today through tonight, and this will, combined with a large high pressure area moving across east central Canada, will cause plenty of wind and drag in cold air, returning the feel of mid winter to southeastern New England as we move through Friday and into the weekend, setting up a winter weather event as low pressure moves across the region mid weekend. There are not really any changes to the outlook on this system as discussed in yesterday’s blog. I’ll be leaning toward the lower sides of the preliminary snow amounts mentioned yesterday, not because there is the threat of a flip to rain after the precipitation arrives in the form of snow, but because the narrow width of the precipitation shield and the speed of its movement will simply prevent all that much from falling, even though the bulk of it will be in the form of snow, only changing toward its end from southwest to northeast. This system departs Sunday with another bout of windy, cold, drier weather lasting through MLK Jr. Day Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain/snow showers ending west to east. Variably cloudy midday-afternoon with isolated snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill in 20s by late-day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 30-45 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 mph, gusting over 30 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 10.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arriving early evening as snow west to east, turning to rain South Coast to I-90 belt and coastline and mixing with rain interior areas north of I-90 before ending pre-dawn. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches in areas that turn to rain, 3-5 inches in areas that mix with rain, with an isolated 6 inch amount possible higher elevations north central MA and/or southern NH.
Temperature rising into the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, E-SE 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle, areas of fog, and a risk of rain showers early morning. Variably cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers thereafter. Highs 38-45 morning. Temperatures falling through the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon. Wind chill in the 10s in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers early. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often 10 or under.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)
Slight change in the outlook as it looks less likely an ocean storm will be located close enough to the region for impact at mid period, and more likely a low pressure area will approach and impact the region around January 24-25 with snow/mix threat, but even this system may end up being very minor and have minimal impact. Before that, dry and very cold.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)
Coldest weather eases somewhat. Additional storm threat with snow/mix/rain threat middle to end of period.

121 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. When NWS puts out their snow map for the weekend event I expected it to have a lot of 2-3, 3-4, 4-6 in it as you go SE to NW across the WHW forecast area. Sometimes they go a little high and may toss a 6-8 band in somewhere. My concern is the precipitation doesn’t last long enough for the higher ends of these ranges, so proceed with caution. The limiting factor here may very well be short duration more than any mix/change to rain.

      1. Philip I think it’s out of here around that timeframe if not earlier like after midnight it will be moving fast .

  4. Thanks TK.

    We had snow overnight in Coventry last night before a change to light rain. About a quarter inch accumulation. Mostly melted now.

  7. Will the polar vortex, which has largely been strong and compacted near the north pole keeping the arctic air at high latitudes ….. will the polar vortex revert back to this form in the long range, after briefly breaking down and elongating in the short to medium time frame?

    The EURO is dropping hints it might, as the arctic air is in retreat at day 10 on its 00z run.

    1. Eric F posted that the EPS looked better for cold/snow chances as we got into February (at least as of yesterday).

      And as I posted above, the GFS looks much better than the Euro at Day 10.

      We’ll see, these models at Day 10 can’t always be trusted as we know.

      Cautiously optimistic we are getting into a more favorable stretch late Jan into at least early Feb.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I had a glimmer of hope that I would see a bit of snow this morning. NOT in the cards as it was just plain ole rain.

    So far this Winter has NOT been impressive in the slightest nor has it been
    memorable in any way.

    And NOT impressed by the Saturday system, however, it has very BAD timing
    for me. Looks like we will be changing dinner reservations to Sunday since
    I have Monday off as the Holiday.

    3. what time did you get out to your car this morning?

      the reason I ask is that, by looking at the warm ground and pavement only, I though it had only rained.

      But, at 6:30am, there was some snow on the bottom part of my car windshield, so, way down here in Marshfield, we did see some snow in the air.

      1. Not sure if that question was for me but at my house it appears it had snowed in the 1-3AM window. At 3 when I was out, everything was white but it had just flipped and was raining lightly. It was mostly melted by 7-7:30AM.

      2. ABOUT 8 AM. If there was any snow, it was long gone.
        Also, I was up about 5 AM and did not see anything then either.

  10. We had a coating in North Reading, but it was already changing to rain around 6am. This Winter has been pretty meh, but there’s lots of time. TK, I would be very interested to hear your thoughts about solar activity. I have been reading a lot about this Solar minimum and comparisons being made to the little ice age in terms of it’s magnitude as we head into the next decade, thoughts?

    1. Interesting…
      2-3 inches for Boston. Just enough to ruin our dinner plans. Go Figure.
      It hasn’t really snowed in a long time and it has to snow Saturday evening?
      Of course. what else is new?

      2. Sorry to hear that. Where is your dinner, JPD?

        Also 11 year old grand is not only watching heartland but just started reading the books. They can’t be found new, but I found some used on amazon

  12. Thank you TK

    Snow here at 3 when I woke up also. Light coating. One grandson got on bus before 7 and daughter said snow was gone. Sounds much like what Mark saw

  15. Here are some Boston snow totals from my F5Weather service:

    0Z Euro: 2.1
    12Z NAM: 2.9
    12Z GFS: 2.3
    12Z ICON: 3.3
    0Z CMC: 4.9

  18. I think to receive 2-3 inches of snow on a primary low traveling over Detroit Michigan, all the while intensifying to 992 mb seems remarkable to me.

    It feels like this should be very little snow on the front end, with a warm sector surge briefly to 60F …… and yet, it seems like a fairly cold scenario.

    1. Wonders never cease.
      Btw, a little birdie on this blog suggested days ago that it would be
      a colder solution… hmm, I wonder who that was??????

      1. Indeed !

        But, I’d figure the synoptic set-up would have changed to a colder looking track.

        Its like the track and an intensifying system look warm and yet somehow, remain chilly.

        I don’t understand. 🙂

  21. 12z Euro is dry with high pressure in control all of next week into next weekend. It has lost the storm late next week/next weekend.

  22. What a shame on WBZ 1030 my go to news driving into Boston . They have let go of some longtime big names like Deb lawler, Bradley Jay , sports guy , and John K. What a big loss .

    1. Who is John K.? Can you give a last name?

      WBZ is now owned by i-heart radio. That’s probably the reason. Too bad on those first two personalities. I hope Morgan White isn’t next.

      1. Keller if I saying it right he still will be on WBZ tv . I just messaged Bradley I’ll see if he responds

    2. Morning anchor Deb Lawler departs News 1030 WBZ just weeks after celebrating her 35th anniversary at the station.

      WBZ also cuts ties with overnight talk host Bradley Jay, commentator Jon Keller and sportscaster Tom Cuddy.

  23. iHeart is the culprit. I’m disgusted with their decisions. But I’m not surprised. Companies like that will systematically destroy radio as we know it. They’ve planned to all along. Corporates like to get rid of people who have been around a long time so they can bring in younger inexperienced people who will just say yes sir yes ma’am to the suits and follow the “business model” which is usually destined for failure. They haven’t learned in a few decades of this and I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. Have you noticed that I have a tad bit of disdain for the corporate world? Yeah. I have good reasons, but we’ll just leave that for another day – perhaps. 😉

    1. And if you haven’t noticed I have MORE than a tad bit of DISDAIN for the corporate world. The corporate world is destroying this country!

      1. Sadly, it’s true. I hate to be negative about anything and I try to avoid it, but that particular subject is probably the sorest one for me, personally. I myself have been victimized by it and I’ve seen too many good people go down to it as well. 🙁

        1. As was I, but my life turned out better for it. I was one of the lucky ones.

          As lucky as I was, Every one of us shy of the top maybe 20% have been victimized by the inequality It creates alone.

      2. As I’m sure you know, I agree. However, as long as we keep empowering the corporate world, it will only get worse.

  24. So last week we learned that a storm that tracks over 40/70 can be a “nothing” snow event.

    This weekend we’ll learn that a Lakes Cutter can produce 75-90% snow in SNE in its precipitation shield.

    Text books are cool and all, but the atmosphere still has its own rules. 🙂

  25. 18Z Nams are in and both indicate 3 inches for Boston.

    Did someone say 2 days ago that they were forecasting UP to 3 inches for Boston???
    Seems to me, someone did just that. 🙂

  26. Storm potential time periods that I can see right now…

    The obvious one is this weekend which we are still refining the details on.
    I’m not concerned with January 22-23 any longer as the pattern evolution won’t support that ocean storm I had initially thought may form out there.
    The January 24-26 period is still a potential but I’m not convinced the upper air pattern is going to support a developing system approaching the East Coast, but rather it may result in a weakening one.
    We need to watch around January 28 for something not seen by models yet.
    The period in the longer range I’m currently most excited about is January 31-February 2. Yes I know I went for a cold/dry February, but we’ll still be in transition that that point which is when I’ve felt we’re most vulnerable. MJO and a couple other things have not really cooperated up to now and in the short term. We’ll see beyond that.

    1. I bet there will be no shortage of rain events in the meantime. They seem to manage to pan out regardless of the pattern.

      1. Actually there were a handful of expected rain events that did not pan out. I pointed them out as they didn’t happen. 🙂

        And also those are pretty much all the storm opportunities I see. I didn’t leave anything out.

    1. There was a nice batch of snow showers heading southeastward through CT from western and central MA as part of the cold air advection.

    1. Solid 4 inches for Boston per NWS. It’s a little higher than what I have for them right now, but it won’t take much to get to or over 4 for the city. The more I look at this, the less it looks like any significant rain changeover will occur during the meaningful precipitation.

    2. The expected amounts equal the high end amounts. 5” for Boston and 6” for BDL? Seems a bit high to me!

      1. They may have posted the incorrect map but I think it won’t actually take much to get to the high end amounts.

  30. We had a graupel snowshower here around 430 and then a full fledged snow squall around 5. Whitened the ground. Looks like another incoming from the Northwest. Surprised at the coverage of these squalls right now!

  31. Looking over the NWS site, what I think they did was post the high end map in the correct spot, and as the expected snowfall, and the expected snowfall as the low end map. Even that has 4 inches for the city. I was thinking about 3 (high end of 1-3) but I may bump it up an inch after I see the 00z guidance.

  33. I have seen a couple of snow squalls this winter the thunder sleet back on December 30th which was cool, and the 9 inches of snow I got from that storm in early December. If it weren’t for that I would view this as a pretty boring winter so far.

    1. I’ve found this winter so far to be exciting from a forecasting and observing standpoint. 🙂 I don’t need inch after inch of snow and snowstorm after snowstorm to keep me happy. I just love following the weather and what it does. 🙂

  34. It’s a snow squall explosion! 4th one in the last 90 minutes! Blizzard like at times with the wind gusts.

    Temp down to 31 now. Initially was only sticking to the grass, now roads white too.

      1. Lake effect – esque!

        Pretty impressive these squalls are holding together right down through Block Island and into the ocean.

  35. NWS Tweeted that the forecast map they put out is indeed the one they meant to put as the expected snowfall. So that is 4-6 range for the city with a total of 5 inches predicted.

      1. Are you telling me to stay with 1-3 inches?

        Is it too high because you don’t want that much snow or do you have a meteorological reason to present to me? I’m all ears. 🙂

        I may very well leave it where I have it but I won’t do that without fully analyzing the situation first. I still have two more blog posts before this event gets underway.

        1. No NWS I think there way to high for Boston . I doesn’t matter to me at all what the number is I’ll be there for many whether it’s 3 or 5 .

  37. Kevin L. bumped up a tad for Boston (2-5 inches).
    Eric F. made a slight fine-tuning (2-4 inches).
    Harv remains the same as earlier (1-3 inches).

    How about 1-5 inches? I think that’s a safe call. 😉

  38. Great Lakes still unfrozen. Our waters of the south coast above normal especially out towards the Gulf Stream lots of juice out there if something finally phases. Even near shore water temps 43-46.

    1. Hi Robert. Ice sure has not been able to maintain its hold on water out this way. I’ve seen ice fishing twice. Once last week very near where There was obvious open water. I have to assume these folks well know the body of water they are on

  39. Mark, any additional accumulation to report with those snow squalls?
    If not, I’ll add 1/4 inch for you.
    thanks

  41. The B’s win it 4-1.

    At the end, Pastrnak fed Marchand for the empty net goal. Pastrnak could have EASILY taken the shot himself, but knew Marchand has been struggling lots lately. Good to see.

    1. This was a team-builder tonight after that recent disappointment. They really needed this. It was a chippy game too. Not that I think the rough stuff is always necessary but it was nice to see the team members sticking up for each other…

        1. Their record is 27-13 and they’re 3rd out of 15 in the eastern conference. I would say it’s just a TAD BIT SOON to label their post-season a failure. That’s like calling winter over on December 22.

          There are Bruins fans on a site I belong to saying how terrible the team is while they sit in a tie for 2nd place out of 31 teams in the entire league. I’m not comprehending the reasoning.

  44. I’m not sure what it is exactly but something ain’t right with the 00z GFS. Going to let that run sit unused.

    1. Left my amounts the same for now, but leaning high side for city, lower side interior, only because of duration being so short, but intensity being bursty mid-event.

  46. Winter Storm watch for most of MA West of 128/495 ish.

    https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    text

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

    From discussion:

    Storm total accumulations were generally little changed from prior
    forecasts. These values range from 4 to 8″ in the Watch areas,
    tapering to 3-5″ for the I-95 corridor including Boston-Providence
    into Bristol/Plymouth Counties, and into the 1-3″ range across Cape
    Cod and into the South Shore into southern RI. It is worth noting
    that given temperatures and the likely moderate to heavy snow
    intensity, snow should have little difficulty sticking/accumulating
    on roads.

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