Friday Forecast

104 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Mid winter cold but bright sun today as high pressure in eastern Canada influences the weather here in southeastern New England. And the cold air this high supplies will play a role in the weekend weather as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes Saturday then down the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday. Many times this track would produce rain here but with plenty of cold air in place and due to the quick movement of the precipitation shield with the low, the bulk of what falls will be in the form of snow – not a big storm but significant enough to warrant shoveling and plowing for a good part of the region. This will occur from the end of the afternoon Saturday through Saturday night. Warm enough air will get involved for a flip to the rain South Coast to about I-90 and perhaps up along I-95 to the northeast, and a brief mix to the northwest, occurring as the precipitation is ending from west to east. This means that rainfall on top of any snow that falls will be limited, which will be good news since more cold air will be set to move back in as this system departs, becoming quite entrenched for the start of next week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 mph, gusting over 30 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 10.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH at times. Wind chill often below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arriving early evening as snow west to east, turning to rain South Coast to I-90 belt and coastline and mixing with rain interior areas north of I-90 before ending pre-dawn. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches in areas that turn to rain, 3-5 inches in areas that mix with rain, with an isolated 6 inch amount possible higher elevations north central MA and/or southern NH.
Temperature rising into the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, E-SE 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Cloudy at dawn with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle northern MA and southern NH with breaking clouds elsewhere. Variably cloudy balance of day with isolated snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers early. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often 10 or under.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing late.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
High pressure dominates January 22-23 with a cold start then slight moderation in temperature. Weakening low pressure approaches and moves through, bringing the threat of some precipitation anytime in the January 24 to early January 26 time frame with temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
This period is a lower confidence outlook, but we’ll have to watch for a strung out area of low pressure to bring a precipitation threat the first couple days of the period, a break, then another storm threat later in the period.

104 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. It is absolutely brutal out in the field today I am struggling & I have only been out since 7am. Driving in for 3am shift this morning the wind was insane literally I could feel my F150 keep pulling . The wind is brutal !!!!!!!

    1. Agreed !

      I think because of our warm January, it feels even worse than it would had it been colder earlier this month.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I agree with Tom. It isn’t really all that cold, but with the wind and previous mild to warmer weather, it really does feel damn cold!

    2. I was thinking the same. As you know, I never wear jackets. I was shivering when I got in car on way home from parade meeting last night, and I am never cold. It’s tough on systems when we have these swings. Or maybe older systems 😉

  7. Re-post from earlier if no one minds:

    Winter Storm watch for most of MA West of 128/495 ish.

    https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    text

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

    From discussion:

    Storm total accumulations were generally little changed from prior
    forecasts. These values range from 4 to 8″ in the Watch areas,
    tapering to 3-5″ for the I-95 corridor including Boston-Providence
    into Bristol/Plymouth Counties, and into the 1-3″ range across Cape
    Cod and into the South Shore into southern RI. It is worth noting
    that given temperatures and the likely moderate to heavy snow
    intensity, snow should have little difficulty sticking/accumulating
    on roads.

  9. I see on the 12z NAM, that at hr 39, the 850 mb temps are still plenty cold enough for snow and this is near the back edge of the precip, matching TK’s idea that most, if not all of the precip, will fall as snow before shutting off.

    Its just how quickly the boundary layer moderates, with light SE winds.

  10. I hope the snow come Sunday morning won’t be “too” waterlogged so I can move it as easy as possible before I leave for work. Ideally I would prefer to wait until I get home around 4:00 pm but it will probably be rock solid by then.

    With a cutter I still don’t see how Boston can get away without a lot of rain at the end. Those futurecast radars on tv look to say otherwise, at least to me showing a good slug of rain from midnight til 3:00 am or so. I will hope for the best.

    1. Ironically, if secondary development of another low were to take place quicker, that would further increase the incoming warm air at the surface and aloft into southern New England and cause the change-over to occur more quickly.

      Because the primary low is strengthening and maintaining energy longer before transfering its energy to a gulf of maine low, it allows the cold air to maintain longer overhead in southern new england.

      What will give us our mildest temps, very briefly, is a w-sw wind flow on the backside of the low, for a few hours after the snow ends.

      1. Thanks for the explanation Tom. The cold can hang on until sunrise AFAIC. Shoveling first thing in the morning before heading off to work, even a fluffy snow, can be exhausting.

  13. Does this look accurate to any of our WHW crew?

    BRIDGEWATER, MA. Snow will develop around 5pm Saturday and turn to rain around 9pm. Snow accumulations will be around 1-2″. Temperatures will start in the upper 20s late Saturday afternoon and climb into the upper 30s by late Saturday evening.

    1. I’d say it is a little off.

      1-3 or 2-4 would be more in line and even in Bridgewater it “may” not change or if it does it would be for a brief period. I guess we’ll find out, won’t we?

      You must let us know.

    2. I think the big picture details are good.

      Late day snow, less accumulation than areas further north and it may end as something other than snow.

      Specifics wise, not as confident that the change occurs exactly at 9pm and that it starts at exactly 5pm, etc …..

    3. I actually think that may be good from some stuff I saw . I’m in pembroke & not expecting a lot down our way & I think it’s the first to get the Warner air in as well .

      2. The warmer air will be on the South Coast first, not the South Shore. It will arrive there right before the precip ends. Warmer being relative.

  14. I wonder next Tuesday-ish ….. when that Atlantic low passes well southeast of New England and the cold high is approaching from our west, if a N wind will provide a Cape Cod snowfall due to ocean effect ?? Maybe also to clip coastal Plymouth County ??

    1. If this was under ordinary circumstances with a cutter, the models would be on target with the quick warming, correct?

      1. Depends on what you mean by ordinary. If the model was correct with the warming then it would be correct. In this case I think it’s just too aggressive. A little underestimate of the cold in place.

      1. Between 1 and 3 but some wraparound may prolong it until just before dawn.

        I’m also a little concerned with a more rapid surface temp drop that modeled.

  16. Thanks TK.

    11F this morning at my house with sub zero wind chills and a fresh light snow cover from the squalls last night. Lots of black ice on the driveway and roads early this AM. Saw a girl slide and fall on her butt before getting on the bus! The training squalls we were under last night were fairly localized as ground quickly became bare as I headed 9 miles west into work.

    Was surprised to see the extent of the Winter Storm Watches across northern CT and interior MA this AM but with model consensus showing 4-6″ in these areas, I guess it meets borderline criteria and is warranted. Will be interested to see how this pans out.

  18. 12z GFS still insistent on a cutter now for next weekend with rain and +20F temp anomalies. CMC is much farther south/colder and the Euro still has no storm at all.

    One thing the models do seem to be agreeing on now is that by Day 10, the cold air is not able to hold on and we turn milder again by late in the month. Just cant lock in the cold for any extended period of time. I blame the MJO.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    3h

    The first 16 days of the month were the warmest on record in Boston. 3rd warmest for Providence and Blue Hill. So how much cold ahead?

    The coldest days are today, Monday, and Tuesday. But that’s probably it for truly arctic stuff in January. Late month still trending milder

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1218169323765805056?s=20

    1. GFS and Euro ensemble forecasts still showing the MJO (currently in Phase 6) heading through Phase 7 and once it is about to hit Phase 8 (cold/snow phase) it makes a sharp turn and heads back towards neutral territory. Neutral is better than a strong unfavorable phase I suppose but still looks like the MJO isn’t going to be a big driver moving forward, at least in the near term.

  21. Looking at MOS dewpoints at 1pm tomorrow Springfield to Worcester to Bedford and Norwood at about 0 give or take. I would go with a slower onset of precip.

    MOS is old school but a tool I still use for short term forecast lows and highs and precip start times.

    1. A handful of the best forecasters I know use MOS. I could name 5 of them right now but I don’t want to give their secret away by name. 😉

        1. It’s information that only grows on the north side of computers… 😉

          It stands for “model output statistics”. It’s basically a set of numerical strings of numbers that list expected vales of temp, dew point, wind, precipitation, etc., stepping out in time, with each model run. When you look at it you can form a better picture of short term details at an individual location. Data like this can help a forecaster figure out subtle things that may be missed when just looking at maps, for example helping them time the arrival and passage of a boundary that may make a 10 degree difference in temperature at a given location, and in some cases could mean the difference between rain and freezing rain, for example.

              1. Well the 5 I’m thinking of are people I’ve worked directly with, but I am certain that Mr. Burbank utilizes many old school methods even now. 🙂 We’ve chatted about weather in person on many occasions over the years.

  22. Tom, to answer your question above, the 12z Euro has absolutely nothing on Tuesday and Wednesday next week here other than high pressure in control. The ocean storm is way south, practically in the northern Caribbean.

    12z Euro does now have the storm back next weekend approaching from the southwest with a strong high pressure in control over us. The storm starts to fizzle as it runs into the block and crawls towards us. A weakened storm is near/south of us by Day 10 (1/27). Looks like the type of scenario TK mentions in his long range only timing a bit delayed. Definitely a totally different look than the GFS.

    1. I’m starting to have my doubts about that system in the watch period of January 24-26 actually getting here in force. It may literally be squashed through the Mid Atlantic as a weakening system.

      I am very interested in the pattern from the very end of January to the very early part of February or thereabouts.

    1. I wouldn’t do that personally. Going to stay right where I am for that area. When this comes in, it’s going to be cold, and it’s going to stick instantly, and snow moderately for several hours.

      1. I’m still guessing 3 for the city . A lot also depends on what time it arrives. Getting myself a nice haircut before my shift which will probably be a 20hr shift .

        1. Yeah I’ve been going with about 3 for the city starting a couple days ago. The NWS forecast is entirely possible, however. It’s only 1 inch higher than what I have, which is basically 0.1 inch of melted precipitation difference.

          Good luck!

          1. Kevin L has 2-5 from Boston right down through throughout the south shore . I may be wrong but I do not think anyone Boston / south will achieve that high # 5 in my opinion only .

  25. Local TV met’s verbal snowfall predictions for Boston (that I heard)…
    Jeremy R. (ch 7): 2 inches.
    Mike W. (ch 5): 3 inches.
    Kevin L. (ch 25): 4 inches.
    Eric F. (ch 4): “likely 3 or 4 in the city”.

    Ok, other forecasts aside…
    Taking into account a slightly slower arrival time but slightly colder set-up than the models are showing, the fact that I think 1 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely for the 3 peak hours of the event, I’m going to keep my ranges the same but lean toward the higher ends of the ranges. I also think that rain may only barely get into the city during the final hour of the precipitation, and pretty much all areas N & W of the city stay all snow with the exception of patchy freezing drizzle behind the main precipitation area.

    So, not a big storm, but it will have impact right in the middle of the weekend. Stay safe out there!

    1. Sounds as if it may be enough to coat our hill for sledding. AFTER the previous weekend in shorts and tees for the neighborhood kids on their new scooters and hoverboard. Darn but I so love New England

        1. Ok I thought slightly slower arrival time meant that . Two years in a row we have had a storm on both Saturdays of MLK weekend I remember because my son was delayed getting back from Washington

      1. Not to mention the men in the white coats should be called. He looks like a hermit from the deep woods. 😉

        He does present a very good forecast though, much like TK if he was on air.

  30. Mark Rosenthal..
    He’s a good guy. He may have a very distinctive look, which he is proud of by the way. 😉 And good for him. He’s fit, healthy and likes long hair. I’ve always admired his forecasts. My one not-so-shining moment with him, which he wouldn’t remember, took place in March of 1985 when he was bombarded with phone calls due to a line of thunderstorms that looked like hell’s front door coming in, black & green sky etc., and wasn’t so much of a lightning producer but downpours, wind, and hail – insane. Anyway I called him to report what I had and he answered the phone “shit I don’t wanna do this!” and I said “Hi I’m calling from Woburn and Dick Albert told me I could call in any time with reports” and he cut me off and said “I know, you got hail right?!” and said “thanks..” and hung up. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t pretty miffed at the time, but over the years it is just now a funny memory, and I’m sure if Mark remembered it he would probably agree he could have been a bit nicer on the phone or just not bothered to answer any more calls. 😉 But that’s 35 year old water under a long ago bridge. Mark’s a classic and one of the good ones. Oh yeah, and he’s a follower / reader of Woods Hill Weather. Hi Mark!

    2. Funny Story TK. Thanks

      I always and still do like Mark. I enjoyed him when he was on TV.
      I think his presentation is superb.

      I don’t mind his look one single bit.

      My Son In Law used to run into him fairly often (Mark was running) when he and my daughter lived in Newton. That was over 10 years ago, so I don’t know if Mark still lives in the area or not.

  32. Just looking at the euro’s projected 850 mb temps for 8 pm tonight ….. -5c near the south coast, -10c not too far from boston

      1. 2-4 or so just might be realized all the way to the immediate south coast and 4-6 in Boston, is my opinion with those 850 nb temps.

        1. Yes, I do not believe it rains in the City. We’ll see, but
          I don’t think so.

          Still most models are still right around 3 inches for Boston
          with the RDPS most robust at a bit over 5 inches.

          12Z NAM is just about 3 inches for Boston.

          https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020011806/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

          As is 3KM NAM

          https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2020011812/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

          and the 12Z HRRR is just a bit over 3 inches

          https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020011812/033/snku_acc.us_ne.png

          BTW, the NAM has a change to sleet…..

        2. Make it 2-5 From Boston All down the coast. That will
          cover it. 🙂
          6 is a stretch, unless the intensity is more than expected. 🙂

  34. Leaving for NY in a minute for the Islanders/Capitals game at 1pm. Could be an interesting ride back 🙂

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