Saturday Forecast

128 Comments

10:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)
Late update, short version. No big changes other than to round out the snow totals by adding a bit to southern areas as the colder scenario wins out, as was expected. A lesson in a storm track being through the Great Lakes and a weak secondary low coming right across the area does not always mean mostly rain. It’s very cold to start out, and by the time it warms up enough for solid rain, the precipitation will have departed. It’s all about the synoptic set-up, not so much what you see in a text book. So we get our moderate winter weather event mainly this evening, and it’s gone by Sunday, but more wind and mid winter cold follows it through Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday. And in fact it gets quite cold here as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, but with dry weather under the influence of high pressure.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow of 3-6 inches from dusk to around midnight, except under 3 inches South Coast where mix/rain occurs for the second half of the precipitation. Brief mix may get into the I-90 and I-95 areas before the end. Temperatures rise into the 30s. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH becoming variable overnight.
SUNDAY: Cloudy at dawn with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle northern MA and southern NH with breaking clouds elsewhere. Variably cloudy balance of day with isolated snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers early. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often 10 or under.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing late.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)
Fair, moderating temperatures January 23-24. Weakening low pressure system passes by January 25 with some cloudiness and possible light precipitation. High pressure rebuilds with fair weather later in the period, seasonably chilly but no arctic cold this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
Quick low pressure wave and cold front brings a snow shower risk January 28 followed by colder and dry weather January 29-30. Watching the end of the period for a possible winter storm threat.

128 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  6. Thanks TK
    The sun was out earlier now it has that snow sky. I am looking forward to the first accumulating snow of this decade.

    1. I think they should.

      I thought they were too high 24 hrs ago, but with the colder atmosphere in play, I think the projections match the colder scenario.

  10. Thanks TK !

    This weather pattern for the next 5-7 days is perfect !

    Snow on the weekend and I can reasonably look to next week and know that Tuesday thru Friday will not have school days impacted by winter weather.

    Like button !!!

        1. I thought perhaps Tom saw a new model run that showed a possibility is all. I think I misunderstood his post. Sorry. 🙂

      1. So far so good for the islanders – up 2-1 in the second period. But long way to go in this one….Caps are a tough team.

            1. 4-1 now!

              Made it down here in 2 hours 15 min with clear roads and no traffic. Way back might take a wee bit longer…

  16. HRRR has about 3/4 of MA (Boston neighborhoods Westward) and the top 1/3 of CT in a solid 6-8 inch range.

  18. ^^^^he sends me weather reports frequently. It’s usually +- 10 degrees colder here in central mass than the bronx.

      1. Been working like a crazy person lately. Nice to have a Saturday where I only worked half the freaking day. I still lurk but not much time to be a smartass during the week.

  20. Starting snowing where I am 40 minutes ago and snow having no problem sticking to the pavement. The thinking is around 5 inches for my area.

  21. Partly Sunny, temperature is 78 degrees with humidity at 56% with a NE wind of 15…. Temperature will probably fall into the mid to upper 60s at my elevation tonight

      1. honestly this time of year, I rather be where there is snow but it is the best time to be here I am not baking lol like I was back in September. when I came here for vacation back when I Was 18 it was late June/early July its much hotter in August and September.

      1. Your 3-6 looks pretty fine to me. 🙂 🙂

        Btw, Mark Rosenthal’s forecast from yesterday is looking
        nice to me.

        1. I’m honestly surprised it started before five today. It’s cold. 18f with 12DP. Figured dry air would win for longer. Not snowing hard but coming down nonetheless

    2. Nothing here at the hospital yet Longwood medical area . I think the faster it arrives the better for snow lovers as it’s not an all night event .

      1. No, we’ll have the same amounts regardless. It’s already into most of the area. Vis dropping steadily in Woburn.

  27. Snowing very lightly in JP, but I believe it is a little ribbon of snow out ahead of
    the main snow. Likely a lull before it really gets going.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.44565217391304346&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=403.3658536585366&centery=252.34146341463418&transx=3.3658536585365937&transy=12.341463414634177&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=26323003&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Seemingly morderate to heavy in CT.

      Mass pike south first 2 hours going to make some hay in legally accumulations

  30. There is a WALL of SNOW headed towards Eastern MA.
    It is really coming down beneath these echos. Remember it is very cold with lower
    Dps, so this snow does not reflect as well on radar as snow falling when it is closer to or even above freezing.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.391304347826087&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=479.2222222222223&centery=245.1111111111111&transx=79.22222222222229&transy=5.111111111111086&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=26323014&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  32. Quizzes while we wait for the snow.

    1) With an outside temperature of 10 degrees, the recommended indoor relative humidity is …
    A. 10%
    B. 30%
    C. 50%
    D. 70%

    2) The lowest temperature ever recorded in January in Boston is …
    A. 3
    B. -3
    C. -13
    D. -23

    Answers either later today or early AM tomorrow.

      1. With the extra keyboard I have for iPad. Some of the emojis work and some don’t. ☀️⛅️☁️⛈❄️☃️⛄️☂️☔️⭐️☄️

  40. Dreadful third period collapse by the Islanders today. Leading 4-1 going into the third and lost 6-4. It’s been a slow ride back as expected. Just stopped in Hamden for dinner. Really snowing hard here now…I’d estimate about 2” on the ground.

  42. Mark I am under a good band here. This things is flying by so that will keep the snow totals in check.

  44. I am out in this. Nothing impressive here. snowing about 1/2 inch per hour. Looks like a heavier band about to move in. We shall see.

    1. Extremely light snow in the city there has been absolutely no big burst as of yet . Sticking indeed Judd nothing impressive

  47. I’ve been playing with weather bug it’s been pretty accurate it says no snow at midnight let’s see if it’s right for this area I have it as Brookline

    1. That is the difference…..weather bug is PRETTY accurate. I had it quite a while ago and got rid of it. But I digress. Why would anyone need a weather app when we have far above PRETTY accurate right here where TK is amazingly accurate

      1. Agree with Tk . It’s free so it gives me information that’s right at my work so it’s been a great tool . I’ve always had but with quite a few call ins this year for snow I figured I’d pay more close attention to it . So far I think it’s been great . For not that bad of a winter I have a ton of snow related overtime so far not complaining.

  52. Quiz answers.

    1) With an outside temperature of 10 degrees, the recommended indoor relative humidity is …
    A. 10%
    B. 30%
    C. 50%
    D. 70%

    The correct answer is B.

    2) The lowest temperature ever recorded in January in Boston is …
    A. 3
    B. -3
    C. -13
    D. -23

    The correct answer is C.

  53. After the back edge we have residual moisture enough to keep flakes and pellets going (except south of I-90) until 2 or 3AM.

  55. 3.7” in Coventry, CT and a temp of 22F when the snow shut off here. Pretty much a 100% snow event and a powdery snow at that.

  58. Still some final reports to come in but looks like 1-3 inches South Coast and nearby areas, 3-5 inches everywhere else. As expected the top end amount was going to be hard to reach due to the speed of the system. Forecasts of all the local TV mets verified generally nicely.

    Some of the news reports are perplexing. One person interviewed: “We didn’t expect this much snow when we came out, and when we came out here it was crazy”. If a “normal” 3-5 inch mid winter snowfall is surprising to somebody and they think it’s crazy here in New England, they have zero perception of what winter is like here. I hope they were from the Caribbean or something and they just didn’t say it. 😛

      1. oooooo a whole tenth over the top range limit! What a terrible forecast, ya? 😉 Bummer about the Isles. I wish they won that game. It’s no secret to you or anyone here now that they are my 2nd favorite team in the NHL (been that way since I can remember).

        1. As a Lunenburger, I am outraged by this dangerously faulty forecast!!!

          I think that this is the third time that we have won the gold. Somebody needs to check that ruler!

        2. Yep, just like the Islanders yesterday, your forecast was looking good almost till the end, then it all fell apart at the last minute 🙂

  60. 2-4″ with some north and west 5 and 6″ amounts delivered via .25 – 0.5 of QPF. A well behaved, colder, flatter, progressive wave. Remember last week at this time models were 1.0-1.5 QPF and warmer. Generally, ECMWF was correct in the mid range on temps while GFS was quicker to trend down the QPF and signal the progressive nature.

    1. Absolutely. It worked out pretty much as expected. And last week around the net I was watching people talking about a warm rainstorm and that winter was over. 😉

  61. New post! I had to delay a bit due to being hit with an episode of a-fib and a visual aura migraine that blinded me for 20 minutes at the same time. That’s only the second time in my life that the 2 have coincided. I’m a rarity today! 😉

    Doing fine now, just have to battle some head pain for the next 48 hours and heart is back to normal thanks to my wonderful meds. 🙂

    On with my day! See you on the new update as well…

  62. Looks very nice outside. Glad to see snow. Too bad some of it will melt today. But, at least it’ll get cold again tonight.

    Some nice images and video from beautiful St. John’s, Newfoundland where a blizzard hit. I’m assuming this was an ocean storm that was well east of us and then went due north/northeast. I don’t remember, however, seeing an ocean storm on the weather maps.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-51168462/canada-snowstorms-state-of-emergency-declared

  63. Looking at the models, some interesting times ahead beginning next weekend and then a couple additional threats thereafter into early February.

    GFS still insistent next weekend’s system cuts, while the Euro and CMC have the storm passing south of us. Euro solution is still mostly wet while the CMC is colder/snowier.

  64. Thank you TK. Glad your afib is under control but ever so sorry about your migraine. Hope you can rest today

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