Sunday Forecast

73 Comments

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)
A little tranquility this morning behind our light to moderate snow/mix event of last night. From reports, looks like under 3 inches of snow fell near the South Coast and generally 3-6 inches elsewhere. Here at Woods Hill I recorded exactly 4 inches of snow which ended with a quick burst of sleet in the 1AM hour this morning. So the quick mover is gone, and as it moves away, like several of its predecessors it will blow up in the Maritime Provinces of Canada and help deliver colder air to us starting later today and through MLK Jr Day on Monday. That newly delivered cold, though not deep arctic on origin, will keep it very mid winter feeling through Tuesday before a midweek moderation. All the while high pressure will be in control of the weather with a welcomed quiet period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief passing snow shower possible evening. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often 10 or under.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing late.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior valleys, 10-17 elsewhere. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
Clouds move in January 24 ahead of a warm front approaching but only a slight threat of some very light precipitation arriving. A low pressure system has to be watched for the January 25-26 weekend but at this point I am not sure of its path and strength. Leaning toward a track just northwest of New England, a quick warm-up for January 25, a quick period of rain showers, then a return to wind and chilly weather to end that weekend but the low track could easily end up further south, so this is a very low confidence forecast at this point. Fair, colder January 27. Clipper low pressure may bring light snow or snow showers to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Starting out fair and chilly, and then we need to watch the pattern closely for the possibility of a winter precipitation event.

73 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Take good care of yourself. I’m sorry to hear you had another a-fib episode, and also the migraine.

    Looks very nice outside. Glad to see snow. Too bad some of it will melt today. But, at least it’ll get cold again tonight.

    Some nice images and video from beautiful St. John’s, Newfoundland where a blizzard hit. I’m assuming this was an ocean storm that was well east of us and then went due north/northeast. I don’t remember, however, seeing an ocean storm on the weather maps.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-51168462/canada-snowstorms-state-of-emergency-declared

  3. Thanks TK!

    As of midnight, Logan received exactly 3.0 inches.

    Seasonal to date = 14.6”

    We will see if Logan has any additional snow since midnight.

    1. I see I am 1/10 off for Logan. Didn’t they receive a 1/10 recently in a snow
      squall? That I did not receive?
      If anyone remembers the day, I’ll add it in. Thought I had, but I guess I didn’t
      get to it.

  5. Thanks TK and hope your migraine gets better soon.

    Looking at the models, some interesting times ahead beginning next weekend and then a couple additional threats thereafter into early February.

    GFS still insistent next weekend’s system cuts, while the Euro and CMC have the storm passing south of us. Euro solution is still mostly wet while the CMC is colder/snowier.

  6. Incredible storm in Newfoundland Joshua. The St Johns airport reported blizzard conditions for 16 CONSECUTIVE HOURS and of those, 7 had winds greater than 100 km per hour.

    Saw this video on Twitter. How do you even begin figuring out how to dig out of this?

    https://twitter.com/markduggan/status/1218334422967123973?s=21

    And this video during the night of the blizzard shows how bad it really got.

    https://twitter.com/treetanner/status/1218333894484774913?s=21

  9. Does anyone here know how close the rain/snow line got to Boston? I know that it ultimately never made it because Logan’s temp was 33F just prior to midnight (their high for the day) and at 3:00 am I checked it at 27F. Barry had Logan at 25F as of 5:00 am.

    Just curious. So glad it didn’t make it. Nice fluff shoveling. 🙂

    1. Not sure about Boston but at my house radar showed the mix line about a half mile south of me as the back edge was coming through.

  10. Thanks for tracking this past storm TK. Looks like the most accurate forecasting for this event came from Weatherbug though.

  13. EPS suddenly looks like crap in the extended after showing some promise last week. GEFS and CFS are better as we get into early Feb. Still no real model consistency in the long range.

    1. I’m convinced that this winter, the atmosphere is trying to repair the arctic somewhat.

      It’s been the winter of the polar vortex sitting strong over the arctic, with the arctic having a very nice, brutally cold winter.

      Looks like another retreat of all the frigid air sitting over the arctic in the medium to perhaps long term.

      At the expense of our winter, this is so needed ! The summer ice extent and the ice thickness are so low.

  16. Tk take care of yourself buddy !!! My guess would be about 3 inches at work . The cleanup was not bad and it was a pretty fast 14hr shift getting out just after 3AM. Off to shovel my driveway & get ready for some football

  17. I’m doing well. Just minor pain on this migraine. Heart is quiet and happy now. Flecianide is wonderful. 🙂

    So the city got pretty much what was expected. The TV guys did an awesome job on this system. The bosses of course wanted to hype it as is typical, because we haven’t had that much to deal with, snow-wise, since early December. And the meteorologists on air did a great job just delivering the weather as they should. Kudos to all of them.

    My point several days ago about mentioning #’s days in advance stands. I still don’t believe in doing it like that on air, even though one particular met that mentioned 3-6 days in advance was for the most part right, it was because for the most part the model was right, which we know is rare that far out. It’s not a good practice to be in because people key in on it. They should know better, and some do, but many do not. So yes it worked out this time, luckily, but I still would not change my view on it because of that. However, they will do what they do. I think it’s just better that we all make sure we are educated to what we are seeing. That may not completely solve the problem of too much info too soon, but at least we’d understand the limitations of seeing such stuff.

    Hope everyone has a great day. I have one more day / evening of un-decorating from Christmas in Mom’s house to do. The documentation part of the project has gone very well, but it has made it a longer task, which is fine. It makes future work easier. 🙂

    Taking some time before that to celebrate mom’s birthday, which is Tuesday, but local relatives will be here this afternoon since they work during the week. 🙂 My mom faces a health battle. A few of you know, many of you do not, she was diagnosed with cancer but THERE IS GOOD NEWS, it’s external and treatable. She’ll have 30 days of radiation treatment beginning very soon. She’s nervous, but in good spirits going into it. She’s a tough cookie. She will be 88 on Tuesday and plans to be around for a long time to come. 🙂

    1. TK…So sorry about Mom’s diagnosis, but love the uplifting spirit y’all have!!!
      Know of my love and prayers from here. Take care of Mom (and your well-being) and don’t worry about the blog.

      Happy (early) Birthday to Mom! Many, many more!!!

    2. Sorry to hear that your Mom has to go through that TK. She seems like a tough cookie and I will keep her in my prayers while she goes through this. Also glad your doing better. The eye migraines are no fun at all.

    3. Tk when I posted that Logan number I had just seen the map posted two minutes ago on Facebook ch5 from wankum & was to tired to figure out it was a delayed post lol . Go Bruins 12:30

    4. Tk I am so sorry to hear that I did not know . I know she is in good hands with such a good son . If there is anything that you need shoot me a message .

    5. Happy early birthday to your mom ! She’s part of the Greatest Generation, a proud, tough group they are. All the best to her.

  18. Quizzes.

    1) Rain falling into a very shallow layer of air below 32 degrees at the ground results in …
    A. Sleet
    B. Hail
    C. Rime ice
    D. None of the above

    2) Rain falling into a deep layer of air below 32 degrees results in …

    A. Sleet
    B. Hail
    C. Rime ice
    D. None of the above

    Answers later today.

    2. DA.

      I have to be honest and say I needed to look up Rime ice and find out what it was before choosing my answer to the first question.

      2. Only reason I knew what it was is from the cliff mass post from the freezing fog in Washington state A couple of weeks ago. Or maybe I don’t know. 😉

  20. Mark, thank you for sharing the video’s from Newfoundland.

    Reminds me of January and February 2015 in Boston. Those were the days. How I love blizzards.

    To our northeast the Atlantic is warmer than usual. This may be factoring into the rapid intensification of the little boy storms that exit our region only to grow up to be big, burly men in a matter of 24-48 hours.

  22. 12z GFS coming around to a bit of a colder solution for next weekends storm threat. Cuts the storm less and has secondary redevelopment over just south of us. Still mainly a wet scenario for SNE but better for NNE.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011912&fh=162

    CMC has earlier secondary redevelopment and a track closer to the benchmark with heavy snow just inland. Decent hit.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011912&fh=162

  26. Thanks everybody for the support! My mom is very appreciative. She knows my blog is like its own family and it’s nice to know that people care. 🙂

    Well the B’s game was a disappointment but it’s ok. Split the home & home with the Pens. On to the Golden Knights and then it’s time for the All Star break. After Tuesday the B’s don’t play again for ten days!

    First football game went how I thought it would. Second game should be closer but I am picking the 49ers.

    I’m slightly leaning toward next weekend’s threat being broken into a couple pieces with a dying section moving through here while the main low pressure area and moisture is shunted to the south. But this is still low confidence at this time.

  27. Wildcard weekend was fun. However, the football since then has been mostly lopsided and very dull. I’ve had enough of this one-sided affair between GB and SF. Time to get back to work.

  28. I don’t want to see the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl as a Cowboys fan. I am very happy the Chiefs won and hope they win the Super Bowl.

    1. Yeah JJ GB needs to do something because they are getting beat in all phases . I was rooting for Tennessee. 20-0 SF

  29. Barring a 2nd half collapse by the 49ers a Chiefs 49ers to me is a great Super Bowl matchup. The Chiefs with their offensive power and the 49ers with their defense.

    1. I agree I do think that would be a good one however I can’t root for the pats rival KC so I hope they go down hard . As a kid growing up I loved SF & Montana. Back then Dallas & SF were the teams

  30. For the longest while the Cowboys and 49ers were the two best teams in football. When I started watching football in the early 90s I start rooting for the Cowboys and have been a Cowboys fan for 28 years now.

  31. I was actually rooting for Green Bay just to have a rematch of the first Super Bowl. With the 100th NFL Anniversary it would have been a nice combo. Oh well. 🙂

    Packers 35, Chiefs 10

  34. Good morning,

    Around the 26th or so still looks interesting, although the Euro is more wet than white while the GFS produces a decent snow storm. Plenty of time.

Comments are closed.