Tuesday Forecast

88 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)
High pressure holds control over our weather through Friday, with continued cold weather on the eastern side of the high today, followed by a temperature moderation midweek as the high moves overhead then offshore. By late week we will have a weak cold front return a little chillier air back to the region, and there will be plenty of polar cold in eastern Canada while arctic air is locked up further north. By the time we get to Saturday, high pressure north and low pressure approaching from the southwest puts us on watch for a winter weather event, but the precipitation type, arriving by later Saturday based on current timing, is in question due to the marginal cold air here. Much to figure out between now and then.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior valleys, 10-17 elsewhere. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Filtered sunshine morning. Cloudy afternoon with rain/mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)
Low pressure will likely impact the region with rain/mix/snow January 26. Fair, colder January 27. Clipper low or frontal system brings a snow shower risk January 28 followed by fair and seasonably cold weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
Watching January 31-February 2 for possible winter storm threat with high pressure in eastern Canada and potential low pressure near or south of New England. Another storm threat is possible by the end of the period.

88 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. I meant to add also that today is Mom’s birthday. 🙂 No snowstorm this year! She’s had a few birthday storms over the years…

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Prayers that your mom’s appointment goes well today. Happy birthday to her and hugs to you both.

  7. Good lunch today Tk . Thoughts on a mostly rain event Saturday afternoon / night with backend snow with colder air Sunday Am Boston / south ????

    1. I was curious what the EURO snow projection was because today’s 00Z run looked cooler than yesterday’s 12z run and the track of the 500 mb feature was better, south of the south coast.

      If this idea can hold, there’s going to be a lot of precip thrown back into southern New England into cold enough 850 mb temps.

      Boston snowfall projecting at 7.6 inches at sea level. Wonder what an elevated location at 500 ft or higher might see ??

      Heavy wet snow too. This far out, not too early to point out possible power outage issues IF that amount of wet snow materializes.

              1. Will need to see how it goes Philip I’ll be working Saturday with or without snow it’s been a good winter for me so far .

      1. Goes all the way to Cancun.

        Occasionally in the Winter, Tropical Cancun, chills down
        (relatively speaking anyway).

        I was only there once and it was May, so NO chill in the air
        as it was in the beautiful 80s. NO 90s, just low to mid 80s.

  13. Should we read into the forecast about that says”rain/mix/snow” as opposed to yesterday’s forecast of “snow/mix/rain”…

  14. Yesterday 1/20 was the anniversary of the 21-inch snowstorm for Boston which was 3 weeks before the Great Blizzard of ‘78 (27.1”).

    1. I remember that one well!! That in itself was a beauty, BUT we had a sleet fest
      several days before that, where it was all snow N&W of Boston, snow/sleet (a lot of sleet) in the city and Freezing rain just South of the city. That one was
      amazing as well. HEAVY shoveling, I assure you!

          1. I admit to looking at the paper headline and wondering why I don’t recall a storm that big 42 years ago……… of course that is because to me 78 was more like 25 years ago.

            1. huh? If you can’t remember something
              from 25 years ago, how would you remember something from 42 years ago????
              🙂 🙂 🙂
              Some things I cannot remember, while others I have a vivid memory. Go figure.

              1. I take a daily multi-vitamin for men over 50. It’s supposed to help with healthy brain function. I can’t remember from day-to-day whether I took it or not. 🙂

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        Yes, but I wasn’t biting. I took my first bite this morning and now
        I’m throwing up!!!!

  16. What you just said JpDave is key there is time. It won’t take much of a shift to move those higher totals to cover more of SNE. So close where I am to get double digit snowfall amounts with that run of the GFS.

  17. 12Z ICON and 12Z CMC want to take the center N&W of Boston area keeping ALL
    of SNE rain. Waiting on Euro. 🙂

  19. SSK the mostly rain event with back end snow were your words, not mine, and I don’t think that’s how is going to go at this point. I can tell you at the moment I’m leaning colder. 🙂

    Dave to answer your question above.. the order of rain mix snow in my forecast doesn’t really indicate anything.

      1. I did. You described the weekend event as mostly rain and I replied by saying right now I don’t think it will be mostly rain. 🙂

  20. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Story remains the same for the weekend. Not much cold air to work with but track/intensity of storm remain key for determining rain vs snow.

      1. Yup, we’ll need some of that but to get that we need
        a decent track and so far just not looking that way.

  21. Thank you TK and wishing your mom a very happy birthday. She is in my prayers as she goes to her appointment.

  22. I too, lean towards a colder solution at this point.

    Not colder in the traditional sense of a cold high sitting to our north, but colder because the dynamics work out perfectly with a strengthening upper level feature taking a track favorable for cooling off the column enough to change rain to heavy wet snow in the middle and end of the system.

    The GFS is similar to the EURO with a strengthening 500 mb feature, dropping from 537 dm to 528 dm, as it passes along the south coast. Its 500 mb feature is perhaps 50 to 100 miles north of the EURO’s path and thus, its snowfall projection is 50 to 100 miles north of the EURO.

    I’m leaning towards an impactful, heavy wet snowfall for the central areas of new england, from west to east. Max amounts 500 ft in elevation or higher, but coastal areas at sea level to do ok too.

  24. FWIW, the GFS is the only model that is remotely favorable, but perhaps, just perhaps, the GFS is onto something?????????????

    2. Still 4+ days away. From the way TK has been hinting, the next two weekend events look better for snow anyway. Although the 6-10/8-14 day above normal temps don’t make things too promising either.

  25. All the models remarkably close in track for the weekend storm. The odds that track remains carved in stone at 5-6 days out are not that great. I’d be more concerned if they were all showing a big hit at this point. Plenty of time for a shift. Many ensembles showing a more off shore track.

    2. TK called this like last week sometime versus a big lakes cutter with a warm day. He’s been spot on with general ideas on the medium and long term. Pretty awesome of you ask me.

      This has the signs to me of a Worcester Hills special.

  26. Eric Fisher thoughts for the weekend
    A lot of bopping around with the mid-levels for the weekend system. Odds still favor hills and interior for plowable snow but give it a day or two to settle down.

    1. I agree with Mr. Fisher’s thought there. I like the odds for the interior. I am not ruling out a plowable event for the coast as well. But a couple days are needed to really start to see the detail. We still could even see this thing end up further south than any model depicts currently. Lots of options still there.

      1. Eric also mentioned that the 2010’s was the snowiest decade around here. Hard to believe though considering global warming and climate change. It still can snow a lot even when a planet is warm.

        1. Pete also believes that there is still room for Boston to get plowable snow as well as the details still not finalized just yet.

        3. not at all due to increase moisture being able to be held in the atmosphere and stronger storms, but needs conditions to be right. There are more extremes. More distinct weather patterns. warmer temps does not mean less snow. Warmer temps means increased moisture to play around with given the right set up.

  27. Yesterday was the anniversary of Boston’s (at the time) record 12 hour snowfall of 21 inches on January 20 1978. No winter month that I have observed has been more wild than that month for the sheer number of storms that impacted the region and the ferocity of 4 of them. It ranks #1 on my all time wild winter months, with February 2015 coming in 2nd place.

      1. Oh yeah, they’ll be back to 70F in a couple days. I just like that they are freezing though, like me !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Even more comical is the warning about frostbite and hypothermia. With low’s in the mid 40’s? I suppose anything is possible….

  32. Well, the 500 mb feature continues to be projected further north.

    Perhaps as a result of +AO and +NAO. Nothing to really hold it back from a more northward trek.

    Still time for the atmosphere to change a bit.

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