Wednesday Forecast

51 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)
An area of high pressure crests over the region today then moves slowly offshore as we head toward late week with continue fair weather. Temperatures will be more moderate than they were to start the week. Then low pressure makes a run at the region for the weekend, currently looking, track-wise, similar to the system of last weekend, but with less cold air to work with, which should result in more of a variety of precipitation over more of the region, however there still should be enough cold around so that significant snow is possible for at least a portion of southeastern New England. Details will continue to be fine-tuned as it gets closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior valleys, 10-17 elsewhere. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Filtered sunshine morning. Cloudy afternoon with rain/mix/snow possible by late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT & SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely. Temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s. Wind variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)
Fair and seasonably cold January 27-29 except a few snow showers possible from a passing disturbance January 28. Watching the last couple days of the month for possible approach and impact by the next storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Winter storm threat potentials February 1-2 weekend and February 4-5.

51 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. My family and I are looking to take a vacation on the cape this summer and really know nothing about there area. Can anyone recommend a place to stay? Looking to hit some of the south side beaches and get a couple of Cape League baseball games in.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Models still looking pretty miserable for the weekend.
    I hope you work your magic.

  6. Coastal, JP Dave and SSK gave you some good recommendations.

    I like the Inn at the Oaks in Eastham. In off-season it’s not expensive, though I’m sure they jack up the prices in July and August. Nice, family friendly place. Close to everything, including CC National Seashore, bay side and ocean side beaches. http://www.innattheoaks.com/

  7. Not that this means anything, but if you look at the radar from our storm that will affect us this weekend, you can see the dynamic cooling TK has been talking about, but is lacking from model output. I looked at GPS and NAM depictions for this time frame and they did not show snow where it is currently snowing

    1. I really get the feeling this is a mostly rain event Boston / south at this point it’s just a guess .

  12. Thanks TK. Snow lovers lamenting the lack of snow meanwhile I’m just patiently hoping we don’t have a surprise clobbering at any point between now and April.

  16. Thanks TK !

    I’ll add in the Sheraton 4 points in Eastham.

    In door pool in case of rainy day.

    It is on the higher cost side.

    But, Eastham has the bay-side beaches that are good for the kids, like First Encounter and nearby Orleans has Skaket.

    Cape Cod National Seashore, Arnolds Seafood, lots of mini golf, 35 minutes from tip of Cape Cod, I love this part of the Cape.

  17. I look at the GFS and focus on hrs 108 – 114.

    I don’t think its generated precip in eastern areas is strong enough. This is important because, at that time, the 850 mb temps are at -5C and if you get precip with decent intensity, its going to snow.

    Projected GFS location of strong 500 mb feature, location of surface low and nice NE inflow at 850mb, meeting a converging NW wind flow at 850mb over central MA should form a nice band of precip in eastern areas, on the western side of the departing low.

    1. of course, if the 500 mb feature is centered over Bar Harbor ME, like on the EURO, that wont help us out too much.

      Down to a height of 519 dm …… stronger than yesterday’s runs.

  18. At about 2pm I was out walking dogs,for the first time with no wind the sun has a little more kick to it. Already a month from the winter solstice.

  19. The Euro keeps the systems coming at us. Sooner or later, one of them
    will deliver. Will continue to monitor. 🙂

    1. I would say forget the weekend system for snow. The tv mets sure have.

      And Pete has rain for the follow up late next week as well. It definitely appears now that January will have below normal snowfall.

      Logan to date = 3.1”
      Normal for January = 13.0”

      -9.9” (OUCH!!)

      1. The only “surprise” ending I see is that the system will be out of here by Sunday morning according to the tv mets.

  20. Thanks TK. Popping in after a very busy but very fun week last week at the AMS conference. It was a great week and I’m really glad the conference was in Boston and that I was able to attend. Definitely a little overwhelming especially having not attended before, but a great place to share research and meet up with friends and colleagues. Here’s an elusive photo of me (the guy on the right who looks about 12 years old in this picture, lol) with one of my two posters, along with our office’s student volunteer from last summer who helped me greatly with this project.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO0Pe1FUEAAHcqB?format=jpg&name=large

    2. Wow! You really are young. Great shot. Thanks for sharing.

      And, how did the conference go and your presentation in particular?

    3. Awesome photo. FWIW, my oldest always looked younger than her sister who is six years younger. I kept telling her she’d appreciate it when older. She now says she does. However, you do not look close to 12. Thank you for sharing.

      1. If we are all on board, let’s pool our power of ….oh heck, I don’t know what power we have, but let’s get it done

        2. Wait ! This is Super Bowl weekend !

          Need a storm so big it cancels school Monday and the cancellations are announced Sunday evening before the game starts ! This is one more snow day I would be happy about !!!!!

  22. I got a better chance of being hit by raindrops Saturday than that panning out. With that said it is nice to look at on the 18z GFS.

  24. Looking at the GFS, pattern looks pretty locked in with inside or just overhead storms with no snow (generally) . Pattern needs to shift ~150 miles S/E or we’re going to sail right through Jan and early Feb. pretty unscathed.

    2. The GFS has not really been locked in other than with the overall idea. But it still varies run to run, and is a prime example of why us forecasters don’t try to get too detailed beyond day 3. 🙂

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