Friday Forecast

89 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
High pressure heads offshore today and we will see some cloudiness as a frontal boundary will be in the region, but not with enough moisture to produce any precipitation. Things will change in short order tomorrow afternoon as low pressure wheels into the Great Lakes and a secondary forms and comes right up over southeastern New England at night, bringing a slug of rain, and maybe even a rumble of thunder. There will simply not be enough cold air around for anything other than rain. Drier air returns on Sunday outside the risk of a passing rain shower as colder air will not return quickly enough or in any force enough to create snow showers behind this system either. A more seasonably chill arrives for the early part of next week with dry weather except the risk of a passing snow shower from a cold front Tuesday. Forecast details follow…
TODAY: Variably cloudy, limited sun. Highs 36-43. Wind W shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH, strongest South Coast.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, risk of thunder, rain tapering off overnight. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH early then variable 5-15 MPH becoming W around dawn.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A snow shower possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Fair, chilly January 29. Watching the period from later January 30 to early February 2 for a potential storm that will likely have colder air to work with and would present the risk of wind and precipitation, including frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Fair, seasonably chilly weather starts and ends the period with another storm threat in between.

89 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. At Boston’s latitude, today now gains 2 minutes of daylight. This will continue to maximize incrementally to a max gain of 2 min, 52 sec per day at the vernal equinox.

    Now, we really start to see sunrise come earlier and earlier, whereas, up to this point, sunset has been rapidly gaining time but sunrise has been staying rather steady.

    1. Well it’s about time. Up until now sunrises have been taking nearly a full week just to gain one minute while the sunsets continue to gain one minute per day since before Christmas. It’s just not fair the way the rotation of the earth works.

      Sadly, in a little over a month DST will ruin our sunrise gains as usual. Don’t get me started on that. 🙁

    2. I’ve taken advantage of this to get some good sunrise photos this year. Absolutely love it. 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Friday, y’all. Giving final semester exams today! Can you believe we’re halfway through the school year!?!?!?

    Day 90 (of 180) is Tuesday!

    TK…I have been meaning to ask you. What camera do you use?

    1. I DETESTED being tested!!!

      During school, I was in my own little world. Don’t know how I got
      through school, let alone graduate from College. It’s a miracle!!!!

      2. If anything, I get the impression that you were a very good student. You seem to have grasped a lot of meteorological concepts here on this blog and have answered many questions from other posters including me. As for myself I’m still just one step ahead of these tv newscasters.

        2. You are kind Philip. I got by because I was gifted
          with enough intelligence to handle all of my lapses in
          attention and refusal to study. How that carried through
          to University is beyond me as I was in a pretty
          intensive Mathematics program, minoring in Physics.

          My plan was for meteorology in Grad School, but alas, that never happened. Too much thinking with my “other” brain. 🙂

  9. Thanks TK.

    Nice to see more light in the morning. Almost February, when it seems so bright with bare trees and snow on the ground.

    1. Yes, it “will” be nice to see more light in the morning. Until then… 😉

      The first milestone will be sunrises prior to 7:00 am. Who knows when that will be? Hopefully by the end of the month.

  10. I do NOT like the looks of the 12Z GFS so far…..
    Looks like it is setting up for a CUTTER or INSIDE RUNNER. WE shall see.

    1. Looks like it is taking an Ohio Valley route which sometimes can be
      a classic set up for a really nice coastal redevelopment.

      Watching it……

      1. I am thoroughly DISGUSTED*(!@*(#&*(!@&*(#&!*(&#*(
        There had better be some improvement with the later runs….

          1. You are welcome. At least someone is happy.
            Well TK would be too because he loves any kind of weather. 🙂

  14. Yep, big hit on the 12z Euro for next weekend. Benchmark bomb and 12″+ for most. Blizzard conditions on the coast.

    GFS is just doing its 700 mile shift thing from one run to the next. It’s pointless to react to each operational run because we know it is going to change the next time. If you look at the GEFS, the solutions are all over the place.

    Still plenty of time to go on this one but next weekend definitely has my interest, as do the next couple weeks thereafter.

    EPS also showing some signs in the long range of some more substantial PV disruption which could bode well for more cold air supply as we move into February.

    2. Sliding along and just south of the south coast of SNE.
      A slight shift would mean rain. Needs to be watched.

  17. Euro begins its northwestward correction.

    I don’t think the 00z from last night was anywhere near NYC …..

    1. Yeah,

      I am concerned that the final solution takes it somwhere in the middle
      between the GFS and the current EURO. BUT, who knows. Anything could
      happen.

      Pretty loaded system regardless.

      1. I actually hope this one works out. Perfectly timed during Super Bowl weekend and I would be fine having that particular Monday off.

        1. Would really be nice and would go a long way to
          getting our season snowfall closer to average, still short, but closer.

              1. Some folks are mandatory. Even when a good part of the area was shut down during the Watertown marathon attack, my son had to report. Fortunately, a cruiser picked him up. I was terrified he would have to drive himself and be a target

    2. Someone should mention in addition to:

      Does the urbanized environment of Logan Airport lead
      to higher temperatures than in surrounding areas?

      Does jet engine exhaust in the air near Logan Airport
      leas to higher temperatures?

      Does jet exhaust fumes in the air at and near Logan Airport alter the heat retaining characteristics of the boundary layer?

  19. Strong feels of spring here in NJ today. Mid 50s, a warm sun, some high clouds. After a fast start, this has been a very tame winter, quite similar to the winter that preceded it. We’re heading for a top 10 warmest January.

  21. A few tweets from Judah about the *potential* for a PV disruption showing up now on the GFS and Euro long range in February…

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    6h

    Can winter snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? GFS predicting in early Feb for the first time since late Dec positive polar cap geopotential heights (squint) & negative Arctic Oscillation in the stratosphere. IMO sustained winter weather runs through a perturbed #PolarVortex

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1220706825403760642?s=20

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    32m

    Sure I saw the 12z ECMWF Nor’easter but I am more intrigued about the GFS #PolarVortex (PV) forecast for early February. The warming heading for the #Arctic looks ominous (for the stability of the PV). Too early to get excited about a PV disruption but at least something to watch

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1220792465529212929?s=20

  22. I am thinking of taking my daughter to Wachusett tomorrow from some morning runs. Any idea when the rain is suppose to start?

  23. Vicki… I do feel better thanks! A little tired from busy busy but doing well. 🙂

    Captain F… All of my photos are taken with a Google Pixel 2 phone camera at this time.

        1. Well I guess it depends where you live. In NJ, probably a hugger. In CT, definitely an inside runner. Either way you slice it, not crazy about that particular run!

  25. Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your official Superbowl Sunday forecast from the Global Forecast System (aka GFS) for each of its last 4 runs….

    0z….late phase/miss out to sea/windy and cold with flurries:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020012400&fh=216

    6z….benchmark bomb/raging blizzard:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020012406&fh=210

    12z….cutter over Ohio/warm and rainy w/ embedded T-storms:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020012412&fh=204

    18z….inside runner/coastal hugger/snow changing to rain:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020012418&fh=198

    Please prepare and make your plans accordingly!

    1. Mark,

      Maybe we can come up with some novelty GFS prop bets like they do for the Super Bowl (WILL ANY SCORING DRIVE TAKE LESS TIME THAN IT TAKES GLADYS KNIGHT TO SING THE NATIONAL ANTHEM?)…

      🙂 🙂 🙂

  26. JPD…I remember back in the ‘70’s some mets mentioned the jet exhaust as to the higher Airport temps. Rob Gilman on the radio in particular would mention it at every opportunity, particularly during the winter months.

    I would be curious though if other Airports have recorded unusually higher temps over the years or if Logan specifically is an outlier.

  27. The best case have the snow after the Super Bowl so people could get to and from parties and have a snow day the next day for all the educators in SNE.

  28. 18z GFS with another ocean bomb the weekend of Feb 8 grazing us with snow.

    Despite the wide run to run variations, the long range pattern depicted by the GFS for the first half of February is interesting to say the least. Continued active but colder. Troughy in the east and a better look for coastal storm development. Different look than January for sure. EPS looking similar.

    Cautiously optimistic for a more wintery February but not going to get hopes too high. We have been down this road before only to watch the models do a 180 and just maintain persistence of pattern.

    1. Was just looking at that. Even so, as depicted, drops about 7 inches on Boston.
      LOL…..LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG way out there.

  29. Dry start for 2020 here in Taunton (and throughout the region)…

    0.94 in the bucket for 3/4 through the month of January. January’s mean is 4.32″ here in the Silver City.

  30. Not a bad night out there temperature wise . Heading back to work soon for 11-7 Am overtime shift . Have a great weekend all .

  31. Thank you, TK.

    I just looked up the weather forecast in Amsterdam. The opposite of dry. And, believe me, you’d prefer to be here. In January, there aren’t any glorious days like we had here on Monday and Tuesday. It’s been raining off and on there for several weeks/months, and the forecast for the next 7 days is truly dismal, but typical of January: [I’m translating from the Dutch summary forecast] “Cloudy, rain every day, afternoon temperature 7C (about 45F), night temperature 3C (about 37F), southwesterly wind, 4 Beaufort.” What’s notable is the lack of variability. First thing you’ll notice in Holland when you go there in any season is the general lack of variability from day to day. Sure, within a day you can have glimpses of sun, light rain, followed by glimpses of sun. But, the variation is minimal. There are of course seasonal shifts, but not nearly as dramatic as here. The other thing that’s noticeable is the very small differentials between high and low temps. That’s more typical in fall and winter in Holland than it is the other seasons. Note, the Dutch forecasters always use the Beaufort scale to indicate wind speed. For me, that took more getting used to than Celsius.

    1. I should have added the rain in Holland is seldom heavy. It’s usually a light sprinkly rain that’s steady for a few hours, stops for an hour or so, and then it rains or drizzles again. I’ve never experienced more than 1 inch of rain in a 24 hour period. I’m sure it’s happened, but it’s very, very rare. If it snows it’s also invariably light. I recall seeing 2-3 inch snowfalls. But that’s about it.

  33. TK – We should more than make up for the January deficit tonight I would think.

    Were you really referring to February? You have been posting for awhile now that next month will be cold & very dry.

    1. After looking at Logan data again, they should cut the deficit in half overnight. I didn’t realize it was that much. Yes, a dry month indeed.

      1. My winter forecast behaved in December, but not nearly so well in January. Yes I thought it would be milder, relative to normal, but it was more persistently so than I would have imagined. However during discussions here myself and others did allude to the wildcard factors present, and a big one being the MJO, or lack thereof at times. I did not think that was going to be as big a factor in helping a forecast verify or bust, but I was not so correct about that. When it was a stronger factor, it was in the “wrong” phases for snow. That is one of the larger reasons that snowfalls have been hard to come by.

        My thoughts going into this winter was the transition period between that milder January and eventually a cold/dry pattern settling in in February would be our greatest opportunity for snow (outside of the early December event). However the transition has not taken place yet. Will it? Probably. But obviously not before February.

        Unless there’s a surprise big snowstorm heading for Boston by January 31, I’d say making a bet that snowfall in February in Boston will be greater than January is pretty safe. Does that mean “above normal”? Not necessarily, so don’t draw that conclusion. But what I am saying is that Boston will probably easily have more snow in February than they did in January.

        1. Pretty tame winter so far to say the least. Even though we know how crappy the winter can be all the way to May and beyond in some years, if we knock out another 45 days with the same general tameness and this winter will have been pretty unremarkable by most standards.

            1. Tame, Lame.
              It’s all the Same.
              Depends on how you see the Game.

              Sorry, writing silly poems instead of updating the blog, which I think I’ll do now. 😛

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