Sunday Forecast

72 Comments

8:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
This is basically going to be the same blog as yesterday, with yesterday removed, and the days shuffled up, mainly because I see absolutely no need to change a thing today. To summarize, dry air returns today, high pressure dominates much of the week, no arctic cold, but a little more seasonably chilly at times as we head through the next several days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
High pressure should hold on for dry weather to end January. Continuing to watch the February 1-2 weekend for a possible storm threat. Fair, chilly interlude after that before another threat appears at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Departing low pressure with dry weather returning early period, a mid period unsettled threat, and then dry and colder to end it.

72 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK. Happy to hear you say that the Euro is lost at the moment.

    Waiting on the 12 Z runs, as the 0 Z runs were quite a disappointment.

  7. Pretty nice to have another upcoming work/school week where one can reasonably say weather won’t be a huge disruption/factor.

    1. Right on, Tom!
      Remember 2015 (see below)…We had so many snow days, vacation days before second semester parent-teacher conferences in March that I had to tell families that I honestly don’t know who your child is because of all of the days out!!!! 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Five years ago today…January 26, 2015, the first of an onslaught of snowstorms in that incredible four week stretch of snow!

    Taunton/NWS/BOX: 20.8″ (the sixth greatest snow in our city’s history; greatest in January)
    Providence/Green: 19. 1″ (fourth greatest in PVD history)
    Boston/Logan: 24.6″ (sixth greatest)

    Thompson, CT 33.5″
    West Harwich MA 30.5″
    Oak Bluffs MA 27.0″
    Methuen MA 31.5″
    Hudson MA 36.0″
    Sharon MA 31.0″
    Plymouth MA 30.7″\
    Auburn MA 36.0″
    Burrillville RI 30.0″

    Lots of peak wind gusts 60-70+ mph during the height of the storm on January 27.

    (Source: NWS/BOX ~ Past Weather Events)

    1. Such a great example of how our winters can vary so incredibly around here. And I love that. This is why even though I love snow I love no snow. I love variety. Variety is for me. You couldn’t pay me to live in San Diego. BLEH! KEEP IT!

      This is New England. We have big winters, we have little winters, and most of them fall somewhere in between that. Just fabulous! We have winters of multiple moods. Love it! And we can say that about other seasons too, but I think winter stands out because people pay so much attention, either loving or hating snow. Maybe you can say the same about humidity in the summer. It’s usually a love or hate thing, but it’s also reality. Because we live in…. New England.

      1. What I find amazing are the memories here of specific snow events. As much as I love snow, I don’t even vaguely remember most of them after awhile as to the date, amounts, etc.

      1. Slightly SE of the benchmark track …. storm bombing out.

        Heaviest precip just offshore, light to moderate precip into New England, marginal temps, widespread wet snowfall under 6 inches.

        Better run, this far out, for a significant winter weather event.

        1. I was actually responding to Dave thinking the usual rain event. That does look promising after all, Tom! 🙂

          1. Promising, yes, if it was 24 hrs before, depressing cause we’d be just missing a big snowstorm.

            But still promising because it’s another signal for that time period that has opportunities for something big.

  11. Thanks TK!
    That run shows good position and a deepening system, but moving way to fast to put down any decent snow, from what I can see. At least it has a system let’s see what the king has to say later. Lots of time to go!!!

  12. re: GFS
    Blah, blahm blah. For so deep a system it is barely showing any qpf at all.
    What’s up with that? Something fishy going on.

    Let’s see what the Euro shows.

    CMC now has something, but mostly off shore.

    2. Sorry, I looked at a little off shore predecessor system. CMC has it in a big way,
      with inland snow and likely snow to rain along the coast.

  14. NWS service sums this all up pretty well, I think anyway…

    Next Weekend…

    Still a high degree of uncertainty with next weekend`s potential
    storm system; both with regard to 1) if a storm will impact southern
    New England and 2) the timing of said potential storm and rain vs
    snow impacts. Guidance continues to indicate potential for northern
    and southern stream disturbances to phase and bring a high impact
    winter storm Saturday or Sunday, but it is not a given at this
    point. Deterministic guidance, while useful to indicate potential
    for some kind of storm in the vicinity of the east coast, continues
    to flip flop which is 0% surprising at the 7-8 day time range.
    Ensemble spread indicates potential for anything from a rainy inside
    runner to heavy snow to a fish storm that misses us to the south.
    Details on next weekend will come into better fo

  17. What a day outside no jacket I love it . Looks like this kind of weather for the next week maybe beyond into the weekend . Loving these temps.

    1. I was just out. It is absolutely beautiful, but didn’t feel 50 to me and it isn’t.
      It is 48 here, but with wind even feels cooler than that. 🙂

      I was out this morning and it felt like SPRING!!

  20. Breezy at Franklin Park Zoo—maintaining a little chill—but still a great zoo day by January standards

    1. There has been a lot of inconsistency on that model.

      It will carry an idea for a couple runs and then change it.

      GFS while not stellar has been better.

      1. I puked all over the place when I saw the output from that
        model. 🙂 🙂
        GFS has support from the ICON and CMC whatever that means.

        Let’s see IF the Euro wakes up with the 0Z run.

      1. Sad for everyone on board. I believe there was another player and his daughter and the pilot. God speed to all five 🙁

  27. Nor’easter after Nor’easter after Nor’easter on the 18z GFS….

    And all three storms pretty much all snow for most in SNE 🙂

    3. Thank you. You saved me a post.
      They are lined up with another in the wings….

      Could be an interesting stretch. Of course, with our luck, they’ll all end
      up as cutters or inside runners or coastal huggers.

      But something to watch.

  28. Gradually the things look like they want to line up to produce the pattern I originally thought may occur during the last 2 weeks of January in the first 2 weeks of February instead. Ah well – one of my issues is I’ve often been off by about 2 weeks in long-term forecasting, although I think I did mention something about possibly a reversal of the Jan/Feb patterns to some degree, pending the MJO wildcard. 😉

    Also, I hope you enjoyed the 50 today. We won’t be seeing that again any time soon, although it still won’t be all that cold for the next several days. But we barely get to the lower 40s tomorrow and Tuesday and then we’re probably staying in the 30s for the balance of the week.

    2. No 50 here and a rogue shower that managed to wet an area rug I had out to air

      But did enjoy the 48

      Two weeks. Long term. I’d say that doesn’t qualify as off

  29. Eric I approved your comment! Welcome to the comment section my friend!

    And yup you may have reason to be nervous….. Although we are not going to see a repeat of 2015.

  31. Thank you, TK.

    Devastating news. I’m not a basketball fan, but Kobe Bryant was one of the greatest athletes who I’ve ever seen play any sport. He was also an exceptionally intelligent man. I know there were issues with Kobe. But, my impression of him was that he was mostly a good person. Of all American athletes he was the number one U.S. ambassador of sports. Michael Jordan was number two, but a distant second. Bryant could speak Italian and Spanish fluently, loved soccer, and was a friend of many of Europe’s top-flight soccer stars. They also recognized his incredible gifts. It doesn’t hurt that basketball is the only American sport that has a sizable following in Europe. Baseball and football are niche sports in only a few countries, and even then niche is being charitable. Practically no-one in Europe cares about (or understands!) football or baseball.

    The loss of Gianna, his 13-year old daughter, had me in tears earlier today. So sad. Tragic. Also, the loss of others on board the helicopter.

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