Monday Forecast

102 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
A quiet final 5 days of January as high pressure will be in general control. There will be lots of cloudiness around today however to start the week as upper level energy moves through the region, and a weak cold front will pass by later Tuesday bringing somewhat colder air into the region as well, also possibly bringing a touch of snow shower activity to outer Cape Cod. But those would be the only flakes to possibly be seen in the area for the next several days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Weather pattern gets a little more active as we start February with storm threats on the February 1-2 weekend and also February 4-5. In each case it’s far too soon for much detail, but the weekend system at least as some risk of having frozen precipitation involved with it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Another opportunity for storminess around the middle of the period.

102 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Latest runs have left me not so optimistic for snow this weekend or any storminess
    for that matter. Models seem to want any major storminess to pass off shore.

    We shall see if the fickle models change their tune with the 12Z runs.

        1. Well, I think we all know that and that is fine.
          Many people do not care for snow.
          Tis a good Winter for you. IF we can’t generate
          any snow, I am all for an early SPRING.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    I think somewhat colder and continued relatively dry will be the theme the next 4 weeks, and snow will not be a main feature. Will there be snow in February? Yes, but I don’t think we’ll get much.

    Weather (very dense fog) may have played a role in the helicopter crash in which Bryant and 8 others died. Apparently, helicopter services, including those operated by the police, were grounded at the time. But, the one in which Bryant flew took off. Of course, we’ll have to wait for the investigation to confirm all this. But, if this is true it is not only a tragedy but a terrible human blunder. If in doubt, especially in very dense fog, one should not fly. Perhaps more than any other weather type dense fog is a red flag that screams “don’t fly.”

  6. Coronavirus has been commanding our attention. It’s scary. But, getting influenza is far more probable, and will, when all is said and done, (very) likely cause far more mortality and morbidity than Coronavirus.

    While the winter has been mild, influenza has done its usual havoc-wreaking: 7,000 deaths so far nationwide (number is much larger globally), and that number will likely soar in the coming two months. What I had a few weeks ago was not flu. This was confirmed by my doctor. I had a bad case of bronchitis, which my son got, too. Now my son has influenza. I’m hoping that my flu shot will actually work. Telltale signs of influenza compared to cold, bronchitis, or other rhinovirus: Rapid (NOT gradual) onset of high fever, dry cough often coupled with sore throat, body aches, and nausea (not in everyone, but a frequent co-morbid symptom). So, one day you feel fine, the next you feel miserable and very sick.

    1. Last time I had a “true” flu, I went to work feeling perfectly fine and on
      the way home from work I quickly felt worse and worse ill and feverish.
      Had 102 temp when I arrived at home and quickly had the worst
      headache of my life. I was never so sick in my life.
      Of course, this was the swine flu during the Winter of 79-80?? I think.

      So, yes, RAPID onset!

  10. That’s 3 straight GFS runs and 2 or 3 Euro runs now that have depicted no phasing between the northern and southern streams causing the southern system not be “captured” and to slide harmlessly out to sea.

    If you look at the GFS though, that northern stream is JUST lagging behind. Oh so close. It’s going to be all about the timing and with those pieces of energy still far, far away, I would expect that we are going to continue to see many model oscillations this week.

    Could be a case where we see the storm vanish for a few days only to come back at Day 3/4 once the waves are better sampled. We’ve certainly seen that one before. Definitely wouldn’t let your guard down on this one yet.

    1. Yes, indeed.
      And does the ICON mean anything at all? Who knows, probably not, but
      then the ICON has been sneaky good at times.

      CMC is CLOSER still than the GFS. Oh so close!

  11. I think the best case scenario here (if you want snow) is a late phase so the storm blows up more off shore creating a mostly snow scenario for SNE.

    The 12z ICON is slower with the southern stream, allowing a full phase early on with brings the storm right up as a coastal hugger and snow to heavy rain scenario for us as too much warm air is drawn in.

  12. Regardless what happens this weekend, both Euro and GFS have a favorable pattern for additional winter storm chances through mid-Feb. I’d be very surprised if we don’t come away with a few snow events out of this.

  14. Now we see wait the Euro hold in store? Likely an off shore scenario.

    To a less extent, the UKMET is now in range and is running now.

    1. It’s going to be an interesting next couple days of model watching for sure. Some models with hits and the ones that are missing aren’t missing by much. We’ll see what the Euro has in store next….

    1. Very impressed with all the model maps Pivotal has added recently! Not sure how they can do it being a non-subscription site.

      UKMET typically scores #2 behind the Euro in verification so that’s a great additional resource to have.

  19. Can’t wait to see the Euro, however based on the last few runs, I don’t hold
    out much optimism, however, one never knows. Many times the EURO is in the same camp to a degree as the UKMET. Not always of course, but fairly often.

    1. I think I used however one too many times here. My apologies as my mind is going in 4 different directions at the same time.

  20. NWS service still summing up the weekend nicely…

    Next Weekend…

    There remains a high degree of uncertainty with next weekend`s
    potential storm system. The key word is “potential.” Possibilities
    range from a rainy inside runner to a significant snow storm to the
    chance that we see nothing more than a weak frontal wave that stays
    out to sea. A lot rides on whether a couple of northern and
    southern stream disturbances can phase and bring the right combo
    of moisture and cold air together. At the moment all options
    are on the table and ensemble spread continues to indicate the
    possibility of a track favorable for southern New England
    precip. Another complicating factor for those craving some snow
    will be the warmer than average antecedent airmass; highs on
    Friday and Saturday will be in the low 40s so ptype with any
    system is uncertain. Stay tuned!

    1. Yeah those 7 day maps don’t look good temp wise if you are looking for snow . It’s only Monday but as advertised this is a pretty seasonable week heading right through the weekend .

    2. Pretty sure Wx called for a “top 5” warmest potential weeks ago. Hats off. That’s some badass forecasting right there.

      1. Thanks! Not sure how many of the SNE climate sites will quite make it top 5 warmest for January, but most or all should be top 10. Once in awhile I’ll get a month where the long range looks very clear to me; January was one of those months, February does not look like it will be 🙂

  22. Mark beat me to it with the UKMET now being on Pivotal! I just discovered that myself on my overnight shift last night. Pivotal has clearly taken the mantle as the superior free online site for weather models. Hope they’re able to keep it free or low cost!

    My early thinking on the weekend storm hasn’t changed. It will be difficult for it to be a snow maker near the coast. Inland areas may have a better shot, but only if the track is far enough west. It looks very southern-stream dominated to me on most of the guidance right now, not a clean phase. Still very early with this one though, and there are a lot of small scale features whose interactions can’t yet be determined. If nothing else our first “watcher” for a legitimate coastal storm in a very long time.

    I generally disagree with the notion that the pattern looks more favorable for cold/snow heading deeper into February. For me it’s more a lack of confidence in what the pattern will look like at all. Not saying it can’t turn colder/snowier, but I’m not sure what some people are seeing that gives them a lot of confidence on that. Teleconnections don’t look any more favorable than they have for weeks. If anything I might slightly favor February being another warmer/drier month with some indications for the Southeast ridge to reemerge. Some hints of the MJO heading back to the warm phases yet again. But I know TK seemed to be thinking different yesterday so I’ll be continuing to try to piece things together.

  23. Here is the answer from the 12Z Euro. A little closer with a hint of some norlun type action.

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012712/126/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012712/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012712/138/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012712/144/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020012712/150/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  25. I get the impression that there won’t be much cold air around here anytime soon for the foreseeable future so any events will be marginal at best for snow. We were very fortunate with the last one, and with a Great Lakes track, no less. I would just prefer a well offshore track with nothing at all over a cold rain.

  26. There is talk amongst some of the Mets on the American Weather forum about the Euro holding back energy over the Southwest for too long which has been a known model bias for some time. Apparently some past upgrades have improved but not corrected this. That could certainly impact how its solution plays out as timing is everything with all these pieces of energy involved.

        1. Timing of the various shortwaves and vorts that need to come together for a phased storm gets screwed up. Even if this is a southern stream dominated system (with little phase interaction) similar to what the UKMET is showing, this timing difference appears to be one of the factors in what is resulting in the outcome that the Euro is showing.

  29. WxWatcher –

    I can’t speak for TK, but my comment that the pattern is looking more favorable is based on a couple things:

    1. The GFS and Euro runs in the long range have been pretty consistently showing some winter storm threats and a storm track generally south of us which is something we have not seen all winter. Yes I know the models have not been great in the long range but its a positive sign.

    2. The Polar Vortex looks more vulnerable right now than it has all winter and there are signs it will get disrupted or elongated again which should at least be able to provide a little more cold to work with which I think the models are picking up on. Doesn’t look like a deep freeze but its something.

    3. Teleconnections don’t seem to be a strong factor either way. Neutral PNA, Neutral NAO, neutral MJO. Isn’t screaming snow but isn’t screaming warmth either. Neutral is better than what we have seen much of January.

    Definitely agree on the lack of confidence and uncertainty as there is no strong signal either way. But the next few weeks look less hostile for snow threats than we have seen in January IMO.

    1. We’ll see! I think at least through 2/10 does look, as you say, less hostile. If the SE ridge returns beyond then, that could pretty much be the kiss of death for what’s left of the winter. To me the best snow chance right now looks to be late next week as opposed to this weekend. Very early, but it has a good look to me.

      2. Makes sense….doesn’t look like a 2015 snow blitz by any means but I think there are a few snow chances in there the next few weeks. Who knows beyond that!

  32. Someone said “as we coast into spring.” Well, that’s apt. Today has a March/April feel to it, as have so many days since mid December. We’ll see what the future brings, but coasting into spring may be what we’ll be doing. I’m not a fan of spring. I love winter when it’s cold and snowy. But, my wish list (or anyone else’s) is not a determinant of weather.

  33. Patiently awaiting the 18Z version of the GFS to see IF there are any changes. 🙂
    Well, perhaps NOT so patiently.

    2. Looks like it is headed more off shore on that run. At 18z Saturday on the 12z run, that low was tucked in off the coast of NJ. Here, low center is weak and well off the Hatteras coast.

      1. Did you look at the sharpening 500 mb flow? with this run, it intensifies at it gets closer to us. I wouldn’t discount this run.
        Just my thoughts.
        Waiting on 0z gfs run and I may see ukmet and/or cmc prior to retiring.

        1. Yeah, but I don’t think it tucks back in nearly as close as 12z. Which is actually probably a good thing because that one was too close.

          I’m not discounting any solution at this point.

  38. Eric was pretty non-committal tonight about the weekend as he should be. It always fun to speculate, but we all know what we always know … by Friday we could be just as clueless as we are today. In the meantime, it’s our 5th Anniversary of the Big Winter.

      1. She may come back banging at your window and you might have to relent and let her back in. Or else she may find a way to break an entry 🙂

  47. Good start with the 0z runs. Too bad there is still a lot of time between now and then and things could go back the other way.

  48. Late night thoughts…

    Nothing drastically different here folks…

    ECMWF continues to struggle. As noted above it has a bias that screws it up in this pattern.

    GFS is a little better but still has its issues. I’m not paying alot of attention to the other models, but I am watching the ensembles for ECMWF & GFS.

    Marginal temps for storms can be deceiving. People see things like 38, 40, or 42, for example, on a 7-day forecast icon and they automatically think “Can’t snow at those temperatures”. Does that icon tell you that the temperature will be around 40 for the entire event? No. 1) It’s a forecast, several days out. 2) It’s a forecast high temperature. Let’s give an example. Wind turns southwest for a while on Friday and Boston warms to a high of 43. The wind stays southwest and clouds dominate at night and the temperature only cruises down to 40 by midnight, which is now the high temperature for Saturday as the clouds thicken and the wind has turned east or northeast ahead of an approaching low, which then sends its precipitation shield into the region. Result: Dynamic cooling = further temperature drop, and suddenly, you have a snowstorm on your hands.

    Is that my official forecast for Saturday? Not yet. But don’t be surprised if it ends up something like that either.

    I think we need to stop paying attention to exact forecast numbers on these things. They have to put “something” there, but it really should be used as a rough guideline, applying the uncertainties inherent in predictions that far out in time.

    Have a good late-night / early-morning if you’re awake. And if you are reading this in the morning, then GOOD MORNING! 😛

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