Wednesday Forecast

80 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
High pressure brings fair and a bit more of a chill to the area today and Thursday, certainly not “cold” by January standards, but feeling a little more seasonable than much of the month has. High pressure continues to dominate through Friday, which will be a little milder. This will end the month on a quiet note. As February arrives we’ll immediately be watching a storm system but at the moment I feel the bulk of this will pass offshore to the southeast of New England, not being able to link with energy dropping through the Great Lakes in time to form a more significant storm to impact the region, so going with rain (maybe mix) confined to southeastern portions of the region with little or nothing to the north and northwest as the initial system passes by on Saturday. Slightly colder air arriving with the energy from the Great Lakes passing by on Sunday may produce a few snow showers. There is still just enough uncertainty that we have to watch that initial storm should it end up closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early morning clouds depart north to south, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain favoring eastern CT/RI/southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts southern areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower favoring southeastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Fair, chilly February 3. Unsettled weather potential February 4-5, and again later February 6 or February 7. Too early to know precipitation type for those threats but temperatures will still likely be running above seasonal averages for the first week of February overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather threats very early and again late in the period. Temperatures gradually trend colder with a slow pattern transition underway.

80 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK!

    If it’s only going to rain anyway, it might as well stay out to sea AFAIC!

    We so badly need blocking.

  8. Thank you TK!

    Mighty disappointed to see another possibility swept out to sea. I was cautiously optimistic about this weekend only to be let down by Mother Nature once again. 🙂

    1. Was this the over/under guesses we all had? I should have known when I guessed over. Next time, I’ll say under!!

    3. You and JpDave would do this and somehow, a storm would then happen that gives New England 1 to 2 ft of snow and gives Newfoundland a 40F raw rainstorm.

      2. I really need multiple homes. One in British Columbia, one in the Maritimes, one in the Alps, and a summer home in Argentina. I can bounce around to where the snowy pattern is at my leisure.

        When is the next Powerball drawing?

  15. In all seriousness, while this weekend’s likely miss is frustrating, I do not think the last several runs of the GFS have been that bad at all for the next few weeks. It has pretty consistently been signaling storm threats around the 5th, 8th, and 11th with a gradual colder trend.

    In particular, have you noticed that the storm threat middle of next week has trended way SE? We have gone from a massive cutter to a storm track over us with rain/mix/snow line nearby. Next weekend is another definite watch period.

    We’ll have plenty more opportunities. It’s still not even February.

  16. I will admit to following the 5-7&10 day forecast. That being said I think more often we get hit with storms that don’t even show up until 3 days out. Is it me ?

  18. As you all know I don’t lament any weather but I will definitely take this pattern as it is made it much easier with all of mom’s appointments.

    2. Lots of cloud streets out over the above normal water temps. When and if we get phasing lots of fuel out there. This winter is great for the elderly less slip and falls and doctors appointments.

  19. Exactly – the problem we have been having lately is that storms are showing up in the long range (beyond a week out) and then we are losing them in the mid to short range. Unless we are talking Superstorm of 93, it’s pretty much always the kiss of death to see all the models consistently showing a big snowstorm 7-10 days out. I’d rather they show the threat and a miss, then have everything come together 3-4 days out.

    At least there are some threat periods showing up in the models first half of Feb. More than we can say for most of January.

      1. If you look at the 12z GFS, the threat next week is still too far NW for snow and the 8th storm is a near miss out to sea. It’s right where we want it 🙂

  22. 12z Euro is way south with the system middle of next week as well. Still results in an inside runner and too warm but watching the trend…

    At Day 10, Euro also has the storm the GFS has been showing for the weekend of 2/8. Loaded system near the Carlolina’s heading up the coast….

  24. Just looked at the latest CFS weeklies….warm anomalies next 1-2 weeks, then cold anomalies week 2-6 (through mid March).

    We’ll see if that materializes…..

    1. Interestingly, right around the time the CFS turns colder, extended GFS teleconnection forecasts are all trending unfavorable….+AO, +NAO, -PNA, MJO neutral or weak Phase 4.

      1. Anything to MUCK things up. Let’s just get to Spring, where it
        will be perpetually in the 40s for about 60 days!!!!!

      1. This guys is as bad as Margusity. Use to follow this guy all the time . I don’t even pay attention to him any more.

  26. Some 12Z Euro charts for day 10 with the aforementioned system on
    the NC/SC border. Based on surface, 500Mb and 300MB, this system,
    IF it were as depicted, would likely be too close to the coast for at least all
    Coastal SNE. BUT, as they say, it is a long way out. Something else to watch
    and then become disappointed yet again. 🙂

    https://imgur.com/a/PJpIczO

    1. Indeed, lots of potential there. GFS has consistently been showing storm development in that time frame.

  27. Judah Cohen tweets….

    @judah47
    Jan 28

    #Winter is running out of runway and I am admittedly mostly grasping at straws with this tweet but the GFS just produced its most interesting #PolarVortex (PV) forecast of the winter (and that is not saying much) suggestive of the beginnings of a PV split. Hope springs eternal.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1222242101733269505?s=20

    @judah47
    Jan 28

    Just last week I replied on Twitter that I will get excited for wintry prospects when the polar low drops south from the Canadian Archipelagos to Hudson Bay. Well this morning the GFS obliged. Predicted Polar low over Hudson Bay leads to colder weather and increased #snow chances

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1222176971918102529?s=20

  29. So .. as many times as I repeat year after year that winter is only HALF WAY over on February 2, I’m going to repeat something else.

    This weekend we will likely have a rainstorm miss us to the south. This will once again show the example that we don’t get missed by snowstorms only. That is a complete myth with no truth to it. We get missed and/or hit by a variety of weather, depending on the pattern.

      1. I don’t know. We had snow in December and lovely spring like days in January. No EEE. But tons of illness. Oh I’d better stop while I’m ahead

        1. Operative word there was “some”. Yes, I know, above average even, but it was still nothing imho. 🙂
          But December would have been fine IF only January
          could have delivered. January was a colossal JOKE!

          1. I’ll be in camp, I love weather. No matter what, it is always interesting. I’d love a huge storm before the season is over. But above all, I’m just glad I’m here to enjoy whatever we get

  30. 18Z Is Closer than 12z Run. Looking at the upper air charts, I see wiggle room.
    This thing may still catch Eastern Most SNE. We shall see.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020012918/069/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020012918/072/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020012918/075/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Kuchera snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020012918/075/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      1. Lol. Yawn. Wake me up when there’s something on the maps at 72 hours out. In the meantime, I think I’ll go spread some lime on the lawn.

  33. Eric’s “winter is over” tweets can be a little sensationalist, including this one, but it’s hard not to feel the clock ticking. I grow more confident by the day that February will be a warm month overall. Not January-level warm, but above average. I do think there is potential for the pattern to turn wetter/more active in the next couple weeks, so we should not let our guard down entirely on snow chances. Also looks like a more favorable ice storm pattern could start to develop towards mid-month. But particularly when it comes to meteorological winter (March is anyone’s guess) this winter seems destined to be a very quiet one, somewhat of a cross between last winter and 2011-2012.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher

    Man…some of the longer range Euro ensemble data…just hideous for snow chances here outside of maybe some mix to rain scenarios. Raging +NAO/-PNA with a southeast ridge. Clock is starting to tick on winter.

    1. And I am in camp TK, while I do like a good snowstorm to track, the hallmark of our winters around here is variety 🙂

      2. And this one is working out just fine for me (so far). I’ll definitely take it. 🙂 Even if my overall long range forecast suffers. At least December behaved. 😉

  34. Thank you, TK.

    In my lifetime I haven’t experienced a winter in Boston that did not include single digits. That includes 2011-2012. Boston got to 9F (in Back Bay I got to 7F) twice. This winter may be single digitless (at least in the city of Boston). I don’t see anything consistent on the models, or in the various weather discussions, that suggests major changes. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if February also turns out warmer than normal, with some very mild days as the ridge does its thing. Southwesterly in mid to late February with no snow cover = 50s in many places, with 60s possible, too.

    WxWatcher, I think last winter had more bite than this one. Sure, it was milder than normal. But, overall there was some sustained cold. This winter has had one short period of about 3 days of sustained cold (last week), and snow that vanished almost as soon as it fell. This winter reminds me more of 2011-2012. Disappointing as I so much look forward to a cold winter.

  35. I will be looking for the first red-winged blackbirds, among many migratory birds. Last year the first one in this area was spotted February 23rd. Of course, 10 days later winter hit for an extended period. My guess is the same will occur this year. It almost always seems to.

  36. I’m loving this winter as I hate cold & snow . We have half a winter left let’s see how it goes I know next week is not good temperature wise with a mild week on tap.

  37. The name of the video below is “Two blizzards in New York in one week.” It’s not an appropriate name, because the 1934 February storms (20 and 26 February) in question were 9-inch run-of-the-mill snowstorms. But, the video is fun to watch, especially when you long for snow and the good old days: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJIepN3H87I

  38. Don’t know if there are any tennis fans here, the Australia Open is on-going.

    98F today in Melbourne and forecasting 102F tomorrow. Wonder if that will affect any matches ?

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