The Week Ahead (October 11-16)

4:50PM

I hope everybody in the New England area had a chance to enjoy the fantastic summer-like Columbus Day Weekend! I know I did. Boston smashed their record high of 82 on Sunday, setting a new high mark of 87. As of the writing of this blog, they are very warm once again today, at 85. But the big warmth is about to come to an end, replaced by cooler but still fairly mild air, as the overall above-normal temperature regime continues. I’m not expecting to see a return to summertime temperatures again, but they will continue to run warmer than normal overall for this week.

A back-door cold front will send cooler air into the region tonight and Tuesday, holding in place Wednesday. High pressure will initially remain in control with dry weather, but low pressure moving northward will first send clouds into the region on Wednesday followed by wet weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers may linger into Friday as a secondary system has to pass through. This should open the door to a fair, mild weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 48-53. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 65-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Rain likely. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 55. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

46 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (October 11-16)”

  1. Thanks, TK! It’s been a great wknd. and I hope everyone enjoyed it. The weather couldn’t have been more perfect – ‘though I am actually looking forward to some cooler, more fall-like weather. But not the rain forecasted on Thurs.!

    And yes, the days are definitely getting shorter. It’s a little after 6:00 and just a few mos. ago it looked like this outside and was 8:00. Oh, well. I am starting to see more color in the leaves – colors are definitely running late. We were up north yesterday and there was a little more color there. Some colors dull – others bright.

  2. In the past two days it seemed there were more colors appearing but very dull. My husband reminded me it was late last year. I was having a fit in mid November that the town was stopping it’s leaf pickup and the leaves still hadnt fallen from many of our trees.

  3. Thanks TK!! What a way to transition slowly to cooler weather. Couldn’t have asked for a more perfect weekend!

  4. When I look at the trees for the most part, they are just as green as in mid/late August. My bet is that the fall foliage 2011 will be the absolute “worst” in recent memory in spite of abundant rainfall.

  5. Foliage this year will to me will not be as great which is a disappointing. I hope we have some good Noreaster’s this winter to make up for it.

  6. We have a lot of pine trees in our neighborhood. What is really strange this year is that usually by this time the cones have started to fall. So far, no pine cones have fallen yet around here.

    Also, has anyone noticed the lack of bees (I don’t want them) or ladybugs? There seem to be plenty of mosquitoes and little moths around – it could just be in the environment around here – maybe different in other areas.

    1. I have seen plenty of bees and wasps. The last few years have produced many ladybugs but this year I have not seen many yet.

  7. Also, awhile ago on the Weather Channel, I saw some video of a 1999 OK tornado. Fascinating video but tragic as there were people killed. Amazing how meteorological technology has improved – w/doppler radar now we can just about estimate what street a tornado is heading for! Well, I guess tornado season around here is just about over – I am looking forward to winter and some decent snowstorms, but I still can’t help but get excited about summer severe storms.

    Have a good night, all.

    1. I guess I shouldn’t say we actually have a “tornado season” around here. They aren’t that common around here – but after this past spring and summer . ..it almost felt like it.

  8. Just to add to the doppler radar some of them have what are known as shear markers which detect rotation. They are circles and when you see a bunch of blinking red ones are the hook that is not a good sign. In addition to that the BTI which is a scale of 1-10 on how likely a thunderstorm is producing a tornado.

  9. According to this mornings NWS discussion, there was an early season snowfall back on this date in 1979. There were several inches of snow in central Mass and even the immediate coastline received measureable snowfall. My memory is terrible, I dont recall this at all.

    Mt Washington is 51F this morning. The summit has the warmest temp on the mtn.

    1. Tom what date did we have snow early October – was it two years ago and maybe October 12? or 18? I seem to think it was during a PATS home game but as I said, sometimes I make things up 🙂

      1. Hi Vicki.

        I remember it was against Tennessee and it was in mid October, but I dont know the exact date. I think they won pretty handily.

      2. October 18 2009. Most areas got 1/2 to 2 inches. I made a small snowman with my best friend that we put on top of her car and photographed. It was during a Pats home game and the field was covered with snow at one point during the game.

  10. I am at my computer today so if anyone wants to repost snow accumulation for the upcoming season, I will keep an eye out and grab the numbers.

    1. Are the guidelines Logan airport official numbers and ending April 30? Any other guidelines that someone wants to recommend?

  11. I just read Barry’s blog – very informative and interesting.

    Is anybody going to the Weather Conference? I am pretty sure TK is going. Unfortunately, I can’t make it.

      1. Thanks, Scott. I was hoping to make it this year but we have other plans that can’t be changed. It sounds like it will be a great time – everything sounds interesting from what I have heard (heard about it on the Worcester weather radio, frequency 162.550). You will definitely enjoy the conference.

  12. I don’t ever remember my tree in backyard plain green in mid Oct, last yr the tree went bare Oct 27th-Oct28th and at this time last year they were yellow and starting to fall, never seen this

  13. Hey Vicki…I have a couple questions regarding posting snow accumuations:

    1. Do we post “ranges” or one specific number?
    2. When is the deadline to submit?

    1. Hi Philip – I don’t believe have the knowledge to answer your questions – I’ll record the data but need those with more knowledge than I have to set the parameters if that’s ok. I read here every day and will watch for any totals posted. When I have a good number of them, I’ll list what everyone has said in case I’ve missed some which I suspect may happen. Does that work?

      1. I guess I shouldn’t say I don’t have knowledge – I haven’t done this before so am not certain what is typical. I was thinking range with maybe a limit of a certain number of incehs but maybe others prefer a single number

    2. The easiest way to do this is use Boston’s Logan Airport, submit a single number for a seasonal snowfall total, and have it in by November 1. If any measurable snow should occur in October we’d all still be on equal ground knowing it occurred.

  14. October 1979 snowfall totals:

    Boston = 0.2″
    Hartford = 1.7″
    Providence = 2.5″
    Worcester = 7.5″

    Note: very surprising that Providence got much more snow than Boston especially early season…Boston 1979-80 = 12.7″*

    1. Btw, that 12.7″ is the 3rd least amount of snow for Boston.

      1. 1936-37 = 9.0″
      2. 1972-73 = 10.3″
      3. 1979-80 = 12.7″

    1. Wow – I don’t remember that one. Just shows that “summer severe storms” can happen any time. I remember last winter we had some snowstorms that weren’t that bad and yet we had some pretty good thunder and lightning.

    2. I remember that day being a rainy one here, and we had a strong low pressure area passing to our west and north, and I believe the severe storm that produced that tornado was near the triple-point of an occlusion with the warm & cold fronts. I still remember really heavy rain and the guy on the traffic report on the radio saying “I see lightning-fall all over the place”. I remember getting a thunderstorm here, but not remembering it to be particularly severe. What I remember more is the perfectly clear sky and mild temperatures that followed it late in the day with a gusty WSW wind.

  15. I am not ready to give a total just yet. Maybe we put a date on when to submit? How does Nov 1st sound? I also think we need to narrow down the amount down to a specific number, bc there are a bunch of us and a range would be difficult. Any thoughts?

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