Paying A Toll

76 Comments

1:06AM

This late night and early morning has produced an amazing spectacle: A 22 degree lunar halo that was text book perfect with the Full Hunters Moon shining through a deck of cirrostratus clouds. Just inside the left edge of the halo sat the planet Jupiter at midnight. I’ll never forget the view as I stood outside looking up at this.

Now, we are about to pay a bit of a toll for all the great weather we have just gone through: Three unsettled days. It could be worse. No severe weather is expected, and flooding should be pretty much a non-threat except in a few areas that see some heavier rain over nearly saturated ground. I still do not expect this to be a widespread issue.

The unsettled stretch of weather will take place as a low pressure system from the south feeding on tropical moisture moves through the region, and a low pressure system from the west catches up with it all.

The better news is that this unsettled weather is expected to move away by the weekend, leaving us with sun and clouds, gusty winds, but mainly dry weather and seasonable to mild temperatures.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle near the coast during the afternoon and a slight chance of light rain mainly south and west of  Boston during the late afternoon hours. High 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 50-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain through early afternoon tapering off to showers later. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Low 55-60. Wind SE 10-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 67.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

76 thoughts on “Paying A Toll”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !

    Logan : 27 inches.

    No luck this early morning with the moon and Jupiter, the thicker clouds have moved in south of Boston.

    1. got it Tom and Thank you TK

      My plan is to simply acknowledge that I saw your total listed – that way you’ll know I didn’t miss it. November 1 is a good date. Between now and then I will have weekend days I may not see the posts here so could miss some. If I don’t acknowledge please just post again when you see my comment if you don’t mind – thanks everyone 🙂

  2. This Winter’s Snowfall.

    My prediction: 60 inches at Logan.

    Thanks and have a great day. Haven’t been posting, but have been checking in.

  6. LOL. Since I got the 90 degree days for Boston right on the nose I am probably going to be way off with the amount of snow. Since August I have been saying no more than 50 inches for Boston and from everything I am looking there will be no repeat of last winter’s snowfall.
    I am going to go with 43 inches and being the snowlover I am I hope there is more than that.

  10. I will say this in regards to snowfall I have not seen below normal snowfall for the winter. It seems the were going to be in for a normal to slightly above normal snowfall.
    Another interesting reading is Ruggie Weather which just came out with their prediction for the upcoming winter last week.
    http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/

      1. Average snowfall in Boston is a little more than 42″. So it appears that 4 people think we will have below normal snowfall, 2 people think we will have slightly above normal (within 6″), 1 person thinks we will have above normal (6 t o12″), 2 people think it will be way above normal ( 18″+).

        Can’t we agree on anything? 🙂

  12. let’s break it down…
    Nov/Dec: 30″(Many clippers and maybe a coastal storm)
    Jan:30″(A few clippers and one or 2 major snowfalls)
    Feb:14″(A strong coastal storm)
    March:10″(A moderate coastal storm)

    84″ is my guess

    A high guess, but there’s something telling me that this will be a very snowy winter. I may be off by a lot, I’m fine with that.

    1. I was thinking of the possibility of “some” snow flakes even making it into the Boston area on the back side of that system with all the chilly air that the GFS is bringing in, something to watch.

      1. My husband and I were talking about it the other day – he was amazed it has been 20 years. I remember going to Humarock afterwards to see what damage had been done. The sand from the beach literally washed up over the entire peninsula. It was horrific.

  16. Scott I hope your correct with your snowfall prediction and there is more snow than I am predicting. I see your predicting a strong coastal storm for February just like The Farmers’ Almanac. Hopefully you are both correct and it happens when I am here and not on vacation.

  17. Thunderstorm Index Friday a 1 since I don’t expect severe weather. I hope after Friday I could put the thunderstorm index away for a while and bring out the snow index before too long.

  18. I sure hope I’m wrong but after seeing some Woolly Bear Caterpillars and a few Squirrels bushy tails I’m going for 67″

  19. I’m not ready with my #’s yet. I need to work out something about the end of winter that could make a drastic difference in Boston’s snowfall amounts.

    Despite the fact I think we’ll see early/often snow this season, I do not think Boston and nearby areas will see anything this month. The GFS is overdoing the shift to colder temperatures behind storms. It’s just not getting that cold. We remain in a warm regime and this will continue through month’s end, despite a few chilly shots of air very brief in duration.

    The Euro is showing this better. Even with more troughing in the East as we enter the 2nd half of the month, we are looking at troughing that is not tapping very chilly air, also a trough axis that has its mean position west of our longitude. This is a seasonable to warmer than normal temperature setup. I’ll be completely floored with surprised if snowflakes fall anywhere other than the Berkshires and southwestern NH before October 31.

    1. TK, I absolutely agee with you but for a different reason. Much of Canada and even Alaska is running above normal in temps at this time…no cold source, no chance for snow.

      1. I was referring to that part of it when I was saying that the troughing is not tapping chilly air. There isn’t anything up there…yet. But watch how fast Canada and eastern Alaska get cold when we enter the new regime. Snowcover will aid it but will not necessarily be needed.

  20. I want to enjoy whatever kind of display of fall colors we have and be able to clean the yard before the snow starts to fall. I don’t see a repeat this October of what happened two years ago and I forgot the date when parts of SNE had accumulating snow.

    1. October 18, 2009…it was a Sunday. I forgot the date as well, but TK mentioned it in the previous posting.

  21. Just a reminder that during these tough economic times it is very important to make sure to lock your doors and windows.

    I returned home from work this evening to discover my house was broken into during to day today. They took $3000 worth of tools. My street is one of the safest in the town.

    1. Sorry to hear about that. 🙁 … Unfortunately I have also heard similar stories from around normally safe areas. And some of the people that have stooped to that level are probably full of shame that they have even considering doing such things…

      1. TK, my bet is that most of these individuals who stoop to stealing already have criminal records. Yes, the economy is a factor somewhat, but most law-abiding citizens use other “legal” means to get by during hard times.

        Sorry Coastal about what happened. I hope you have contacted the police. At least no family member was hurt I trust?

        1. Thanks TK/ Philip, no one was hurt. My dog kept them from most of the house but my garage. They had a field day in there.

          I had a great collection of tools, mostly for working around the house, building decks for friends and my favorite is our adironack chairs we make out of mahogany. At leats I didn’t make a living from them but its eating me up something terribly.

          I hope it was someone in need to provide for their family and not for drug use. Just ask, ill give you the shirt off my back if it would help someone in need.

          1. I hope you’re right, but still, there is a better way to go about it..like you said. Sometimes all people have to do is ask for help. If everyone works together, we get through…

        2. Philip- people who break into homes do it mostly to feed there drug habit. They sell the stuff they steal to get money for drugs. I would bet anything it was drug related.

          1. I don’t mean to sound harsh, but people steal for drugs. Thats why they rob bank’s and stores. Almost all of the people in are prison system did what they did ( ROB ) to feed there adiction.

    2. I feel so sad. I know from experience that it feels as if your house and as a result a trust has been violated. I’m sorry coastal. My family has been listening to me talk about your screen house and all feel terrible about what happened.

    3. Sorry to hear that. I had read last week or the week before there have been an increase in breakins for Hanover.

  26. It certainly has been a rainy night. Rather mild too…mid 50s to near 60…. Cant help but notice that the water temps off the coastline are all reporting around 60F. I wish I knew if this were normal for nearly mid October. Just seems like its above average.

  27. Storm Prediction Center has us in the general risk cateogory for thunderstorms on Friday.
    Thunderstorm Index is still at 1 since I don’t expect severe weather.

  30. Coastal, just read your post. UGH!! Sorry to hear this. Sometimes I wonder if there any more safe neigborhoods.

  31. Does anyone have an update for the weather in Boston after 5 PM tonight. Just remembered I have a dinner engagement in town.

    1. Longshot…this evening should be mainly dry but there still could be some spotty drizzle. Tomorrow afternoon and especially evening will be quite a different story with lots of heavy rain.

  32. Happy to be missing out on the severe weather going on in parts of the Mid Atlantic with a tornado watch up there and already tornado warnings and a possible tornado touchdown in the county in Virginia where the epicenter of the August earthquake happened.
    Don’t think we severe weather here tomorrow but I would not be surprised if a few strong storms developed.

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