Friday Forecast

48 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
One more chilly day then a weekend warm-up as high pressure drifts to the south of New England. The early part of next week will turn unsettled as clouds move in Monday then wet weather arriving Monday night into Tuesday as a broad low pressure area moves in, but into air mild enough so that once again frozen precipitation is not going to be a factor. That’s just been the predominant pattern that has been nearly impossible to break, and it’s not quite ready to let go yet.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 35-42. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 1)
The follow up storm I’ve been watching for midweek next week is still a threat, but current indications are that it will be a little more closely tucked in behind the first, with impact more on February 26 into February 27 before any real cold air can be established, so shifting the idea to more of a rain/mix situation for this, but with only moderate confidence, followed by drier/colder weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Somewhat active and colder pattern to start the month of March. The door will be open for the possibility of winter weather events. This doesn’t look like the type of pattern where we dive into the feel of full winter though, just more marginal. There is still not a strong sign of a set-up to really change the pattern in a big and lasting way from what has been predominant for much of this winter.

48 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. Excellent point. I’m trying to think of last really bad year. I believe it was early 2000s or late 1990s that we had some bad fires through Milford, Holliston and Hopkinton. I seem to recall some were being set

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ok, so now February is officially cooked. Running out of time and as JMA would say,
    climatology will be taking hold. Will it snow again this Winter in SNE?????

    I seriously wonder, although the 6Z GFS has a biggie…. will post next

        1. Well, I now know why.
          I am trying to do some programmatic image uploading to imgur.com and in the process of testing here at work, I deleted all of my images, thus your blank screen.

          I can re-do it, if you would like to see it?????

    1. Thanks. Too bad that will either end up as a rain event, well OTS or non-existent. A nice “fantasy” though! 🙂

      1. Yup. We shall see where it ends up on the 12Z run.

        The only Hope is what TK says in the 11-15 day outlook:

        DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
        Somewhat active and colder pattern to start the month of March. The door will be open for the possibility of winter weather events

  13. Thanks TK.

    Trend for next week is definitely more wet than white. Probably all wet for most of SNE. Really just more of the same: Southeast ridge ensures low pressure passes to the west, it gets cold behind the low, but only until the ridge rebuilds soon after. Nothing’s changed. AO forecast has trended more positive and the MJO shows no indication of moving to the colder phases. Warm March incoming.

    1. At this point, I’m good with a warm March. Once I get it in my head Winter
      is over, I’m all set and IF there is a surprise, I’m always good with that. 🙂

      thanks

      1. I agree 🙂

        There may be some lingering cold or at least more ups and downs to start the month but the trend should be for the prevailing pattern to continue, as JMA has also been posting about. Still can’t rule out a snow event in the first week of the month as well, but from there I would say the odds of significant snowfall drop below normal and it would just be the “freak” events we’d have to watch for.

  14. 12Z GFS has snow only about 75 miles N&W of Boston for the 27th.
    Hmmm, can that change???? It’s 2/21 today. I’d say there is time, but likely
    will be rain.

  17. A warm March sounds good and all, but it means nothing only to be followed by a “cold” April/May combo. Old man coastal seabreezes can ruin an otherwise pleasant spring.

    1. Still a beautiful day. Man, do I miss these days when it’s HHH in July and August; as in a terrible longing and craving for fresh air (not of the artificial AC kind). I’m seriously considering staying at my cousin’s home north of Quebec City (about a 90 minute drive north of QC) this summer, at least for a few weeks. He said it never gets hot there, at least never warmer than 80-85F. And humidity is rare.

      1. Back in the 1970’s I was in Montreal for a week one summer and the entire time had HHH. Felt much like DC.

        1. You’re right HHH is not completely out of the realm of possibility in the province of Quebec. Note, however, Montreal is not the same as Quebec City. QC is colder in winter than Montreal, and cooler in summer. My cousin lives northeast of QC where it’s even cooler.

  20. Once again no complaints whatsoever on the lack of winter weather from me, not that I’d complain about that anyway given my overall “whatever happens happens” attitude about weather. But this is a total blessing 3 days into and looking ahead for a good part of next week for my mom’s daily treatments. Keep it coming. There can be a snowstorm one of the weekends if it wants to do it then. 😉 She doesn’t have to go for treatments on Saturdays or Sundays.

    1. I don’t know what kind of treatment she is getting, but here’s wishing her well
      and that she tolerates the treatment very well.

            1. TKs mom is an inspiration…..a small package of dynamite. I honestly can’t help but smile when I think of her.

  21. Loved Throwback Thursday!
    Woods Hill Weather Classics! Will that be a premium channel? Will I have to subscribe to a different tier???? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. I am totally good with this winter. I love snow but I don’t mind the break from the cold. It’ll all even out over time.

  24. 65F/dp : 56F currently here. I understand mid 50s Sunday and Monday in New England. Well, that will only require one winter coat. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  26. Upcoming week looks more wet than frozen or white. When I commented a few days ago, when I was think a colder solution, my trepidation that I didn’t post here, was that the flow would be too fast and timing would speed up the Thursday system and it would arrive Wednesday before cold air could arrive. Seems more likely that will now be the case.

    Then another 3-5 day dry and colder stretch, but the cold will moderate closer to average as we progress through that period. After that mixed signals, but it is hard to argue with persistence. Each pattern change noted in long term guidance, tends to modify, and be less cold and less inviting to winter weather events.

    00z / 12z GFS/ECMWF/NAM is all that I am using for guidance and I have been sneakily using the lower resolution ECMWF Control Run which has been helpful in softening the edges of its companion higher res guidance that tends to be to strong in its ridge / trough depictions in the mid and long term .

    Also annual reminder as we head towards March. Model snow maps are not your friend and Kuchera has real struggles in the late season. Snow on the Ground / Positive Change maps tend to be a more helpful tool as the calendar progresses.

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