Saturday Forecast

25 Comments

9:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
High pressure located to the south of New England provides dry and milder weather for the weekend. This will continue into Monday despite an increase in cloudiness ahead of the first of 2 low pressure systems to impact the region from late Monday night into midweek. The first one will be running out of steam as it comes in so the rainfall will be limited during Tuesday and early Wednesday, but the second system will have more punch to it and bring a more solid area of rain later Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-50 South Coast, 51-56 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of light rain early. Steadier rain likely late day or night. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 2)
February 27 transitions from a rainy start with an easterly wind to a drying finish (maybe a rain/snow shower) with a gusty westerly wind as it turns colder. Fair, chilly weather February 28-29 to end the month. Moderating temperatures to start March with mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Timing of low pressure systems this far in advance is always difficult but initially looking at March 4 and March 6-7 for possible impact times. Precipitation types uncertain but temperatures may be a little more marginal for rain vs. mix/snow. Long way to go to figure out the details.

25 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. The crocuses were up and bloomed in Sutton three years ago. The daffodils….which arrive a bit later than the crocuses…..were showing their leaves in Framingham six years ago now. This year there is no sign of the daffodils yet. The crocus leaves are up about 1/2 to 3/4 inch. We are not lacking warmth so…..maybe…. Too dry?

      1. I have never had snowdrops. I need to look into planting. And my oldest grand was just sitting outside with me and found a crocus that’s flower had formed and was going to open

        Sorry. Photo is from overhead and not straight on

        https://imgur.com/a/5JjC3Rv

  4. I posted this in error under the previous post –

    Upcoming week looks more wet than frozen or white. When I commented a few days ago, when I was think a colder solution, my trepidation that I didn’t post here, was that the flow would be too fast and timing would speed up the Thursday system and it would arrive Wednesday before cold air could arrive. Seems more likely that will now be the case.

    Then another 3-5 day dry and colder stretch, but the cold will moderate closer to average as we progress through that period. After that mixed signals, but it is hard to argue with persistence. Each pattern change noted in long term guidance, tends to modify, and be less cold and less inviting to winter weather events.

    00z / 12z GFS/ECMWF/NAM is all that I am using for guidance and I have been sneakily using the lower resolution ECMWF Control Run which has been helpful in softening the edges of its companion higher res guidance that tends to be to strong in its ridge / trough depictions in the mid and long term .

    Also annual reminder as we head towards March. Model snow maps are not your friend and Kuchera has real struggles in the late season. Snow on the Ground / Positive Change maps tend to be a more helpful tool as the calendar progresses.

    2. Same concern I had and I think I mentioned it in yesterday’s discussion of having to go for a more rain scenario for the second low due to its rapid progression into the area before the cold can get here. Doesn’t really create any surprise given the pattern anyway.

      About a month ago I joked with a colleague basically “Watch, that switch to colder with better snow threats in transition won’t happen either, we’ll all let our guard down, and then be whacked with the other book-end…” This is assuming that one includes the early December event as the first book-end. I definitely do given the snow amounts in parts of the region.

  7. I am waiting for a tv met to look the viewing audience straight into the camera and “call it” a (snow) season by the end of this month, or at least on March 1st. Even for a sneaky snow to occur, doesn’t the pattern have to break down to some extent?

    I do find it interesting that we seem to be getting more colder shots now than earlier in the winter. Too bad that they are never accompanied by moisture like in NNE.

    A cold & dry/warm & wet combo regime.

    1. Just the way the pattern goes this season (so far). Not the first time, won’t be the last. I don’t think any media mets will be calling it too soon. They know what can happen… unless maybe they are using reverse psych on ma nature. 😛

  12. Finally found winter up here in Maine! It was -10 when we arrived at Sugarloaf Thursday night. Beautiful snow conditions and mostly sunny skies both yesterday and today. It was in the teens yesterday but comfortable with no wind, and 20s today but a bit windier near the top. My son dog a hole in a natural snow area and it was up to his waist so I’d estimate about a 30” base of natural snow up here. Will post some pics tomorrow or Monday when I get the chance.

  13. A 9-3 ouchie for the Bruins to end their 3rd set of recent back to back games and 4th game of a road trip. 9-3 or 1-0 it goes into the books as one loss. It was a rough game but they will just move right on from that. Still looking at a team 5 points ahead of the 2nd place team in the NHL, 8-2 over their last 10 games, 3-1 on the road trip, a starting goalie that has an insane goals against average and save percentage going into last night’s game. Those games happen. It was just one of those nights. They will be fine. 🙂

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