Wednesday Forecast

45 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 1)
Low pressure will strengthen and occlude as it passes through the region tonight and Thursday, bringing a slug of rain, heaviest tonight into early Thursday. Behind this comes a shot of colder air later Thursday and especially Friday into the weekend, but with mainly dry weather as we wind up February and begin March.
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered areas of light rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Moderate to heavy rain arriving southwest to northeast pre-dawn. Lows 38-45. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy, early to mid morning, ending abruptly from southwest to northeast by late morning. Sunshine and passing clouds midday on. Highs 45-52 morning, falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable then shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
High pressure to north and wave of low pressure passing to the south bring cloudiness to start the period, then a brief interlude of dry and cool weather with high pressure, followed by a quick warm up, a risk of rain showers, then cold air returning late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
Potential winter weather event early in the period, followed by fair and colder weather then a warm-up later in the period.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I like how you are projecting the high temps over the weekend to over-perform a bit with strengthening sun and a lack of snow cover.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yet another SPRING day upon us. Sure as bleep doesn’t feel like Winter. 🙂 🙂

  5. Let’s just get on with spring…I would guess at this point even JPD doesn’t even want any snow. As a fellow snow lover, this has been the most disappointing of winters.

  6. Thank TK
    Dud winters have happened in the past and will continue to happen. If I look at this century so far the only winters that come to mind as dud winters are 01-02, 06-07, 11-12, and this winter. We have been spoiled with some big winters. Hopefully next winter we bounce back in a big way.

  9. Mark a thrilling overtime win by my Rangers over your Islanders last night. I didn’t think at the All Star Break the Rangers would be playing meaningful games in the final month of the season. The Yankees are still in great position to get to the World Series and win it even though Luis Severino is out for the season with Tommy John Surgery.

    1. Isles should have had that game with 45 shots on goal but hard to be disappointed with the point after being down 3-1 with 8 minutes to play. Every point is crucial right now.

      Rangers are really making a strong push…we’ll see if they can keep it up. It’s hard to keep it going at that level this time of year. It’s a pretty grueling schedule with a lot of games in a short period of time. But they are definitely making it interesting!

  11. Had a great time up at Sugarloaf this past weekend. It definitely cured my winter blues. There was plenty of natural snow up there…I estimated about 2-3 feet in the woods. The mountain was near 100% open except for a few trails in the Snowfields off the summit which are above treeline. We had three mostly sunny bluebird days starting out cold Friday with a low of -10 and ending up mild on Sunday PM with temps pushing 40.

    Here are some shots I took.

    Coming off the summit….

    https://imgur.com/drjYZVi

    From top of the King Pine lift…

    https://imgur.com/mvsxcRd

    Tree skiing on Burnt Mountain with the main mountain in the background. They offer Snowcat rides to get there as this area is not lift serviced!

    https://imgur.com/Dzd4KV6

    Looks like Sugarloaf and many of the ski areas in NNE are in line for a good 6-12″ of heavy snow from this next storm. Should be a good March for skiing, especially if another storm comes together next weekend.

    1. In Imgur, click on the magnifying glass to blow those pictures up for true effect…….the scenery was awesome!

    2. Mark, fantastic photos! breath taking!!!

      That is quite a ski area and it may very well be the most majestic
      of all New England Ski areas.

      I regret that I have only skied there once in my skiing lifetime.

      It looks truly amazing!!!

      1. I agree. I had only been there once previously myself back in the early 2000’s and the summit was closed that time.

        It’s the only mountain in the East that gets above treeline. The feel and scenery up there are more like what you would see somewhere out West.

    1. The GFS ensemble teleconnections still don’t look great for that weekend so I am not biting on that threat yet…..still looks like +AO, neutral to +NAO and -PNA with unfavorable MJO phase.

      1. Waiting on Euro to see if that system it showed on the 0Z is
        even still there. Probably not, but we’ll see soon enough. 🙂

  13. I was surprised when I woke up to see this morning the 0z EURO showing accumulating snow for SNE the end of next week. There have been a lot of runs of the EURO that showed no snowfall for SNE this month.

    1. I used to call my grandmother “Nana” as do many kids growing up. 🙂

      Yes, she may very well pack a whollop somewhere, hopefully not in SNE. 😉

    2. Wow my Mom went by Nana as well as my Grandmother(Dad’s Mom). In addition three additional family names here for me. Of course we can’t leave out our friend Vicki either. It’s going to be a doozy of a tropical season for us 😉

      1. Hahaha. My grands call me nana. I called my nana nana. My kids called my mom nana. These are forces to be reckoned with. And we will spell Vicki properly, even if NWS doesn’t 🙂 🙂

          1. 🙂 Me too he is my all time favorite Red Sox player since I was a kid. I always picked 9 as my number in youth sports.

            1. I have chills. He was an amazing man. I’d hope for Teddy in Teds bday but that may be late in the year. …August 30

              But our Nanas will get it done

  16. WOW! Blizzard warnings now up for the lake effect areas of western and central NY with the NWS Buffalo now calling for 3 to 4 FEET of snow in the Tug Hill plateau with 60 mph winds and severe blowing and drifting.

    Map of warnings:

    https://www.weather.gov/buf/

    Blizzard Statement:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ008&warncounty=NYC049&firewxzone=NYZ008&local_place1=Martinsburg%20NY&product1=Blizzard+Warning&lat=43.7205&lon=-75.4566#.XlbMO0BFyUk

    Snow forecast map:

    https://www.weather.gov/buf/winter

    1. This is not common for this time of year at all. Typically the Great Lakes are frozen solid by now and the lake effect machine is shut off.

  18. Thanks TK. Late day catch up but lots accomplished here. I’m forcing myself to organize my time, even in retirement.

  20. Mark, thanks for sharing the blizzard warnings in Western New York State. If I can could beam myself there right now I would.

    Boston’s shrouded in fairly thick fog at the moment. A November day in February. We’ve had a lot of those this winter.

  21. On coronavirus, several days ago I found an informative website (no bells and whistles) – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ that presents the facts regarding the spread of the virus. China appears to be winning the battle, if you will, as there is dramatic decline in numbers of new cases. Outside China (still less than 5% of the total number of cases worldwide), it’s different, but if you take a good look at the numbers from a purely mathematical perspective the spread is not alarming at all. In fact, the key here is growth factor, and that’s hovering just above 1 which means the numbers of new cases are increasing but certainly not exponentially.

    Either the virus is not as contagious as some say it is, or the virus has spread but many are unaware (haven’t been tested) they have it.

    Perhaps a math/statistics person can chime in after reviewing the graphs in the website above.

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