Saturday Forecast

67 Comments

10:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 29-MARCH 4)
This weekend, Leap Day today and the first day of March tomorrow, will be cold thanks to a batch of cold air recently delivered “air-mail” from Canada. A weak upper disturbance may trigger a passing snow flurry today, otherwise expected dry weather for the weekend. And as has been the case all winter, moderation quickly follows for the first half of the coming week. Expect Monday to feature cloudiness as it warms up both surface and aloft, a small bubble of high pressure to bring fair weather Tuesday, then low pressure tracking northwest of the region to bring back cloudiness and a good chance of wet weather by the middle of the week.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Brief passing snow flurry possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
Fair weather at the start and end of the period. Watch the March 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather which may include some snow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
Fair weather to start, then another unsettled period possible which may also include at least some risk of mix/snow.

67 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    2. I put even money on this being off the models by this time tomorrow if the trend for these “storms” continues as it has this season.

  5. Thanks TK
    JpDave you are right I would very much love the outcome the 12z GFS is showing for the 12th. The chance of that happening is slim and none and slim left town.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Let’s go all in on both of these storms and end up with a top 5 snowiest March and average snow on the winter….wouldn’t that be something? 🙂

  9. Euro out to 72 hours. C’mon Euro speed it up some.
    I guess I’ll go do a few things and come back in a bit….

        1. I did. I polished ALL of the furniture and dry mopped
          all of the floors. 🙂
          Going to vacuum in a few minutes, then we’re going
          out for dinner and cards with friends.

      2. 10:1 snow

        And, imho, it is absolutely a Norlun.

        Early phase

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020022912/138/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

        Then

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020022912/150/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

        then

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020022912/162/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

        then

        https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020022912/168/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

  11. So the Euro, UKMET and ICON all favor an accumulating snow event next week and the CMC, which had the storm at 00z is still showing a phase, albeit a bit too late. GFS has nothing.

    This one definitely has my interest. I’ll be curious to see the EPS and how many of the Euro ensembles are showing an accumulating snowfall. Hard to get excited at this point as the timing of these pieces of energy needs to be just right for something to come together. If there’s something still there on Monday and the models are in better agreement, I’ll be more optimistic….

    1. Yup. Something is up, it’s just a matter if all can come together
      just right and that is generally a big IF. Still, something to watch and we
      haven’t even had too much of that this season.

  12. Here is the EURO from my F5 Weather service. This shows a surface/precip map that
    clearly demonstrates a Norlun and the total snow that is very similar to Kuchera.
    Precip type from this service indicates a long period of rain.

    https://imgur.com/a/v0VJmuQ

  13. Thanks so much, TK, and Happy Leap Day, y’all!

    In the “I Have Way Too Much Time On My Hands” department, here’s the climatological, historical report for Leap Day, February 29, in the Boston area:

    Number of Leap Days since 1872 (which was Leap Year): 37 (including today)

    Maximum temperature: 64 (1880; 2016)
    Minimum temperature: 3 (1884)
    Rainfall maximum: 0.56″ (1880)
    Snowfall maximum: 1.3″ (1968)
    Maximum snow depth: 14″ (1892)

    1. In all of this time, a paltry 1.3 inch MAX on that date? Wow! That just doesn’t
      sound right to me. That’s almost like saying that the maximum recorded
      high temperature on that day was something like 39 or so. 🙂
      Can you share the source of the data? If it is from NOAA/NWS then it MUST
      be correct. If it is from some flukey website, then it is suspect. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Only have 1/4 of total days since records were kept, but still there were 37 days of record. hmmm strange and interesting.

      Many thanks for sharing.

        1. I did my research in 2016, Dave. I actually went to monthly summary for each Leap Year and looked up February 29. It took some time to do the research that way. The filter did not work for me. When I searched only for February 29, it was giving me data for years that weren’t leap years.

    2. Ahhh Stowe, Now I have skied there a for a few days. Unfortunately it was
      after a warm spell and flash freeze, so conditions were quite icy even with
      machine snow on top. Beautiful area!!!!

      Nice image !!! thanks

  16. Of course ALL snow shower activity went POOF before reaching the coastal plain.
    Now, there’s a surprise!!!!

    Some still holding together over central and Western Ct.

    1. Plenty of time for that to shift to the northwest. I am not discouraged where the placement is a week out.

  23. My Rangers can’t go on a losing streak now after making this playoff push. Win tomorrow at home but a big blow losing Chris Kreider to injury last night against the Flyers.

      1. The New York Rangers have always been the New York Rangers. They are an original six team and came into the league in 1926. I am happy with this unexpected playoff push. They were 11 points out of a playoff spot when the month began now they are only four. They are in a rebuild so my expectation for them this year was to be mathematically alive going into the final weeks of the season. If they make it into the playoffs icing on the cake. A big blow to that playoff push came with the Chris Kreider injury.

        2. Haha. I was thinking Texas rangers. See how my mind works. Dallas (Texas) cowboys. Texas rangers

          Thanks for clearing that up.

  26. Mark no timetable given yet for how long Chris Kreider will be out after fracturing his left foot against the Flyers. The New York Post is saying there is a distinct possibility he will miss the final eighteen games of the regular season.

    1. Yikes, that is definitely a big blow to the Rangers. That’s a pretty freak thing to fracture a foot in a hockey game. Hard to do with skates on.

  27. When I heard about the injury my initial thinking was 6-8 weeks which would be the rest of the regular season and possibly start of the playoffs if the Rangers make it. Hopefully it less time when an official timetable is given. Speaking of injuries the Yankees are in a holding pattern with Aaron Judge trying to figure out what is causing the right shoulder soreness and is going to have more tests Monday. It feels like last year with the Yankees with these injuries and we have not gotten to the regular season yet losing Severino for the year and Stanton more than likely missing the start of the season.

  29. canadian and euro shows a hit for late next week. i wish we can end this winter with a storm like that.

  32. 6z GFS still too late with the phase and is a miss but tries to work up some magic around the 12th.

  33. Cue JMA to remind us of the Euro’s overinflated snow maps, March sun angle, fighting climo, etc…

    1. That is correct, nevertheless, the opportunity for 2 winter weather events does exist during the first half of this month.

  35. 0Z Euro F5 Weather Snow (Similar to Kuchera)

    https://imgur.com/a/WmOGy0x

    Far cry from the 10:1 map, eh? Still a ways off, BUT we “may” just have something
    brewing. Slowly the models are beginning to somewhat agree.

    The UKMET is very close, but doesn’t quite make it. But even with that, it shows signs
    of that Norlun.

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020030100/144/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

    Here is My F5 version at 144 hours:

    https://imgur.com/a/mPl79NF

  36. Actually it would take just this kind of anomalous system to get some snow here. ECMWF has some intrigue to me in its set up and long fetch, but where that sets up (if it all) is impossible to predict at this juncture. The Canadian -I haven’t looked at it all winter. I have no use for it.

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