Sunday Forecast

98 Comments

7:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
A cold, quiet Sunday to start the month of March, then we see “more of the same” as we moderate the temperatures ahead of the next set of disturbances, the first that will actually play a decent part in moderating them for us with the lack of precipitation but a lot of cloudiness Monday, a short interlude of high pressure Tuesday but still milder, and a milder and somewhat wetter day Wednesday as low pressure travels northwest of the region. We should be back into drier and somewhat colder air by Thursday as that second system exits…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with a risk of brief light rain. Partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Been watching the March 6-8 period for a while for colder air and a potential winter weather event, and continuing to do that but focusing it a little more to March 6-7 with dry weather returning March 8-9 with chilly weather, then moderating temperatures late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Will have to watch this period for an additional potential winter weather event.

98 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I had just made a couple of posts on the old blog, so here they are:

    Responding to Mark about the 6Z GFS

    Actually, it throws back some snow along the coast with a norlun type scenario.

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020030106/150/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    Reply

    And about the Euro and UKMET…

    0Z Euro F5 Weather Snow (Similar to Kuchera)

    https://imgur.com/a/WmOGy0x

    Far cry from the 10:1 map, eh? Still a ways off, BUT we “may” just have something
    brewing. Slowly the models are beginning to somewhat agree.

    The UKMET is very close, but doesn’t quite make it. But even with that, it shows signs
    of that Norlun.

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2020030100/144/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

    Here is My F5 version at 144 hours:

    https://imgur.com/a/mPl79NF

  2. So, now we wait on the storm watch for the 12Z runs. What will they show? What will they show? I guess we’ll find out. 🙂

  4. JMA I grabbed your post at the end of the last blog and will repost it here so nobody misses it…

    ** JMA says:
    March 1, 2020 at 8:04 AM
    Actually it would take just this kind of anomalous system to get some snow here. ECMWF has some intrigue to me in its set up and long fetch, but where that sets up (if it all) is impossible to predict at this juncture. The Canadian -I haven’t looked at it all winter. I have no use for it. **

    1. And RE: The Canadian. I sometimes forget that model exists. I have no use for it either, nor do any of my colleagues. We occasionally will have a laugh about its forecast if one of us accidentally views it. 😉

  7. JMA says “some intrigue”
    TK says “potential winter weather”

    Time to gas up the snowblowers…lock it in.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Meteorological Spring!

    Chilly, but not lionesque, out there for early March. Lions later on????? 🙂

    How’s Mom, TK?

  9. Thank you, TK

    My youngest commented recently that often winter doesn’t get its act together until March. I am sure if taken literally this can be debated and proven incorrect. But we have had some doozies in March. Let’s hope for one in 2020

      1. Indeed !

        Not making light of a serious topic, hopefully no need for Caronavirus day(s) either.

          1. I was thinking the same, Tom. Like snow days, school districts will have to balance facts v. panic before considering closing schools. Weymouth had an incident on Friday from what I understand.

  11. Thanks TK
    It seems to me when we don’t get a lot of snow in the December to February period we get a sizeable snow event in March. Might this be the case this March???

    1. That was my daughters thought also. I know 1984…son’s and I believe your birth year …..was a very active March. Of course 1993….if I have year correct. And was there one in 2017?

  12. Thanks TK!

    I too am keeping an eye on the end of this week. It’s a case of “to phase or not to phase”, but it almost looks foreign to me on the models because there have been so few opportunities the last two seasons where you could even contemplate something like this. At this early stage, I tend to favor the two streams staying separate, at least long enough to prevent anything from bombing out right off the coast. But it has to be watched because as the Euro showed, the ceiling with a potential event like this is quite high.

  13. The NAO takes a little dip around that period to neutral before going back positive. I don’t like the AO and PNA for that time period.

    1. At BJs in Framingham—place is zoo—have never seen it like this. People stocking up on non perishables. I just want my 2.5 lbs of Starbucks beans!

    2. Saw that. Apparently he had minimal contact with folks. Good news. Hopefully he will recover quickly.

      Not only are some things out of stock, but price gouging has started big time. I’m adding things like batteries and some staples and cleaning supplies I keep on hand and will use. But I mostly have things on hand in case of weather events.

    3. Crap! that’s not good. I see that the person had recently traveled to Italy.

      And so it begins!

      1. Yep. And sadly I am afraid schools are going to be our biggest worry. Several had Italy trips in this area over vacation. One had kids stay home a day. Another had them in school for a week and THEN said stay home for a week. They need to insist parents keep their kids home period if sick.

  16. They been screening cruise ships before they go into dock for coronavirus here in the vi. They caught someone on a cruise the other day goingto the British VI

  17. 12z GFS again misses the phase for late week. It’s close, but no cigar.

    The storm evolution for the follow up system on 3/10 and beyond is pure comedy. Run it from start to finish for a good laugh.

  21. And another in the FWIW category….

    This is the 00z Euro Kuchera Snowmap from Weatherbell:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_03/CFF832F9-0305-4FD4-949B-44AF963406FE.jpeg.dac7acd0155d8c7146d26bbc09a036ce.jpeg

    2 FEET for much of eastern MA with a sharp cutoff back towards me.

    Quite the different algorithm obviously in comparison to the F5 snowmap Dave posted above.

    IF that solution were to verify, I think the F5 snowmap with its 3-6″ looks low considering intense precip rates and a lot of it falling at night. The Weatherbell map is probably overdone but I would probably split the difference between the two.

  23. As WxW stated, it’ll come down to a phasing issue. I think threat time frame #1 (as it stands now) has a better chance of phasing for impact than threat time frame #2, which is of course much further into the future and subject to change one way or another.

    FWIW this is the most concerned I’ve been for a winter storm since early December (other than that moderate event on January 18 which always looked like it would be what it turned out to be, despite being a “cutter”).

    1. Interesting that a rain event never needs “phasing”. 😉 They are always sure bets at the end of a typical 7-10 day forecast.

  24. Thanks TK for sharing your thoughts. I am hoping this pans out for all us snow lovers on what has been a disappointing winter.

    1. Right now I would favor eastern NE for any substantial impact from this. This looks to be a late bloomer if the phasing happens. Not that we are out of the game but I think we are going to be more on the fringe with this one in CT….if it comes together. Long ways off though. There is a cluster of about 10 Euro ensembles that were tucked in tighter to the coast and would be a more significant impact for us.

  25. Right now it looks like the further east you live in CT the better chance for several inches of snow. Thankfully it is Sunday and this could change.

  26. 12z guidance has me slightly more confident in a no phase or late phase scenario, but it will be at least a couple of days before we know for sure. Just have to play the waiting game for awhile.

    1. We are fighting what is still a progressive pattern with little blocking. Don’t think we are going to be able to get that southern stream to slow down enough. Or the northern stream to dig enough either.

      I can see a scenario though where a norlun trough sets up and produces for someone. Models have been hinting at that on and off and seems to be what the Euro is trying to do at hour 144…

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020030112&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      1. Agreed on the progressive pattern. A lot of people think blocking (-NAO) is the end all be all for SNE snow. That is very much not true, however, this is the type of case where having some blocking in place would considerably up the odds of a snow event.

        FWIW, that Norlun evolution on the Euro looks unrealistic to me.

  28. The northern stream 500 mb feature, if it were to behave as projected on this run, could get things done on its own

    1. Yeah, see my post of the Euro at hour 144 above. It looks like a trough setting up between the two pieces of energy but then the northern stream tries to redevelop into its own low center off the coast as well.

      Many interesting solutions and possibilities at play here!

    1. What a whackball solution but still produces 5-8″ for eastern MA and more to the north.

      Reminds me off that March 2013 storm out near Bermuda with the long fetch of moisture that dumped a band of heavy snow across SNE.

  30. Somewhere way up there in the blog, I think it was you, Vicki, who was discussing March snows. Our biggest snowstorm of 2019 was March 3-4 with 11.2″. It was our only snow day of the school year.
    And one of the region’s biggest snowstorms ever was 60 years ago this week, March 3-5, 1960: Providence 17.7″; Boston: 19.8″; Taunton 22.0″.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1960_nor%27easter

    1. Thanks captain. I thought I saw two of the biggest ever were in March. But I may have made that up so can’t be quoted and I don’t have a link

  31. Well I wasn’t expecting to see that from the 12z Euro. A significant snow from a potent norlun trough and the northern stream forming its own cutoff low off the NE coast.

    As WeatherWx said, that solution is probably a stretch. But it is an example of how we could potentially get something out of this without a complete phase.

    Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next several days. We will need some luck here for sure.

  32. JPD…do you ever surf cast? Son tried fourth cliff at Humarock where the current is remarkably strong. He caught fish after fish….bass. He is shaking his head because in all of the years we went to Humarock, he had no idea It is best on south shore

      1. He seems to have figured out best places. If you ever want to try, I can ask him for recommendations

  34. Did they fix the sensor at Logan ? W wind, sunny day and it’s 32F and comparing it to other temps in eastern Mass looks fairly reasonable.

  37. From NWS…

    well.

    Friday and Saturday…

    What to say about the upcoming winter storm potential…5 to 6 days
    out I`ll stick with generalities and say that we continue to monitor
    a period of unsettled weather late Friday into Saturday. Outcomes
    range from a highly impactful strong snow storm to a benign rain/
    snow event. At this point what we do know is that we`re looking at
    two pieces of atmospheric “energy” that will be swinging through in
    the vicinity of the eastern seaboard…a southern stream low over
    the southeast US and a northern stream shortwave over the Great
    Lakes. How and when these two disturbances phase or fail to will
    determine the outcome for southern New England. As flip flopping
    deterministic guidance has alluded to, the southern wave could bring
    an injection of moisture together with the shot of cold from the
    northern piece to produce impactful snowfall over southern New
    England. However, it is one of many scenarios that may play out, and
    us snow lovers would do well to not get our hopes up quite yet, as
    this winter has burned us with these scenarios many times. That
    being said, EC ensemble members continue to advertise potential for
    a strong coastal storm, so it is something to watch. Stay tuned!

  38. Well, that was a fantastic 3 day stretch. Can’t take that away. We’ve had a couple of brief reminders of winter this winter. Really bright, sunny days for the most part, refreshingly cold but not harsh, easy to breathe (so important to me; it’s my biggest issue with summer is inability to breathe in), spectacular winter skies. If I could bottle the past 3 days I would.

  39. Storm Jorge has caused major flooding to the British Isles. Wettest February on record. What a contrast to last year. When I visited in August everything looked parched.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/01/storm-jorge-wettest-uk-february-weather

    I may be headed to a work conference in Brussels 2 weeks from today. If so, I’d also visit my daughter in London. Things are up the air, however, with the coronavirus. I’m not particularly worried (more concerned about flying – tells you how `rational’ and sane I am), but the conference organizers are hesitant to hold a meeting in the heart of Europe if the pandemic is still growing. At this point, it is growing, but I’m very surprised at the rate of growth. For a virus considered “very contagious” its growth pattern is weirdly linear and not exponential (the exception is Iran; and China at the beginning). That could have to do with lack of testing, and measures that have been put in place to prevent spread. Still, I would have expected tens of thousands of cases in Europe by now if this is (which I doubt) as contagious as the flu.

    1. i am saying the same thing. just for reverse psychology. maybe if i pretend like the storm will miss us it will actually hit us ha.

    1. Just watch the evolution of the last 8 GFS runs and watch it bring that southern stream energy further and further NW with each run.

      If this trend continues, the GFS will be showing a fully phased benchmark bomb with a snowstorm for all by this time tomorrow night…..

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