Monday Forecast

63 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
A fairly mild first week of March, much like much of the winter has gone, with 2 disturbances / frontal systems moving through, one tonight and one Tuesday night and early Wednesday in a very progressive pattern, then a third approaching later Friday when things may get more interesting. We’ll actually be watching 2 systems at the end of the week, one moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast and another diving through the Great Lakes, for the phase-timing game, which may end up giving the first chance of significant snow in quite a long time. But there is a high degree of uncertainly and we’ll have to keep a close eye on this through the week.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-51. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely. Lows 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain/snow possible late-day and night. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Snow or snow showers possible March 7, duration and intensity dependent on location and timing of phasing of two low pressure systems. Becoming dry and seasonably chilly by March 8-9. Slight temperature moderation March 10-11 with next unsettled weather threat arriving.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Will have to watch this period for an additional unsettled weather and possible winter weather event(s).

63 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. I apologize if I have just forgotten that you have posted in the past. If you have – welcome back. If not – a big welcome to the WHW family.

  5. Thanks TK.

    I think it’s safe to say this is the closest we’ve been to a true “coastal bomb” scenario this season, maybe the past two seasons. It does still look to me like the phasing will happen too late for a high impact event across SNE. But the northern stream shortwave is still wayyyyy out over the Pacific. It continues to bear close watching given the high ceiling potential.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Saw some pretty intense low pressure systems in the models for the weekend, however,
    all too far off shore. Snowfall ranges from about 8 inches from CMC, 6 inches from
    UKMET and an inch or 2 with both the Euro and GFS.

    I suppose there is still time for it to get interesting, but until BOTH the GFS and EURO
    indicate significant snow, I am not biting.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I am seeing absolutely nothing in the offing for storms.. Nothing I say. And I say this using absolutely no meteorological logic. 🙂 😉

  8. Of course we are going to get clobbered Saturday.

    The sun sets near 7pm Sunday night, meaning we’ll all get to look at snow cover that much longer into the evening.

    Typical New England, no winter during the winter months, then it shows up during spring months.

    I request equal time for summer weather in September !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  9. On a more serious note, full moon Monday I believe that is at perigee Tuesday, so the Saturday morning high tide will be approaching 11ft. That won’t leave much room for surge, before coastal flooding starts to occur.

    2. If this system tracks closer to the coast it could wreak havoc along the coast.
      These pressures if a hurricane would be CAT3, so a close passage could
      bring 50 mph winds easily and could possibly bring 60+ mph, all depending
      upon track.

      As it stands right now, track is predicted to be too far off shore to cause any serious problems. Always subject to change. 🙂

    3. While on shift last evening, mulling over the possibilities, I did instinctively check the moon phase calendar. It is indeed a particularly high tide coming up with this full moon, though at least it won’t occur until a couple days after the storm is past. Still, if a closer to the coast solution does play out, I would expect some coastal flooding issues.

  12. Congratulations to Barry Burbank for 42 years at WBZ! 🙂

    I hope he gets back to normal schedule. Or is he now semi-retired for cameo appearances only?

  13. High temps yesterday:

    Logan = 32F
    Norwood = 37F

    So NOW who has thermometer issues? 😉

    I noticed early yesterday morning that Logan’s temp was just like everywhere else in SNE. A good sign. 🙂

      1. 33 is what I had as well.
        Tom pointed this out yesterday.

        Wonder why we aren’t hearing about what they have done.
        Obviously something has changed. We’ll see with the higher
        temps expected tomorrow and Wednesday. 🙂

    1. I think I like that the southern stream is slightly ahead of the northern stream.

      If they were equal in longitude west of us, I’d think the phasing might occur too early and track the surface low over us or west of us.

      With the later phasing, it at least puts us on the colder western side.

  15. Really the only thing to pay attention to right now are the 250mb and 500mb charts. It’s all about the upper levels with this one. Right now, that northern stream shortwave is not digging enough, fast enough, to make this work out. But it wouldn’t take much to change that.

  19. Now we wait on the Euro which will probably place the system in Bermuda or the Azores or some other far away location. 🙂

      1. I forgot that Sarah W. is expecting. It will be interesting if she follows Danielle as a full time mom or just a few months of maternity leave.

  21. The something that needs to change in the next 72 to 96 hrs is the 500 mb flow in the north Atlantic.

    Too progressive. I don’t think the atmosphere has to have super blocking, just a little more though than appears in the offing.

    1. With that said, the 850 mb flow at hr 120 looks NNE to me into -10C, 850 mb temps, so, I’d think eastern and southeastern Mass is seeing some snow, not a lot, but some.

      1. I get that, but surface temps won’t be all that cold, so I am
        not very concerned about that.

  24. Friends have been sending me messages saying their apps are telling them 2-5 inches on friday. Ugh. I have told them not to believe apps for precip this far out.

  29. Today’s weather was classic early spring (in late winter). South wind, clouds/sun and when the sun was dominant it heated the interior valleys well into the 50s to near 60, while higher elevations (like Blue Hill) were cooler, the eastern shores were cooler due to partial wind-off-water effect, keeping Boston in lower 50s for max, and the South Coast being the coolest of all. Obviously had the wind been southeast the coastal areas would have been more equally cool, while an easterly wind would have kept the eastern shores chilly while the South Coast was less so, but still cooler than the interior.

    1. Any new thoughts for late Friday/early Saturday? Will Logan remain tied for 6th least snowiest?

      5. 14.9” = 1994-95
      6. 15.1” = 2019-20*
      6. 15.1” = 2001-02
      7. 15.5” = 1988-89

  30. Two of those winters 94-95 and 01-02 were followed by big winters including a big snow storm that winter Blizzard of 96 Presidents Day Storm 2003. Could this happen for next winter??? Time will tell.

  32. Well, if you ever want to see an example of failed phasing, the 0z NAM is a good one. Almost safe to write off this late week system at least in terms of achieving its higher end potential. Not quite locked yet though…

    1. Arghhhhhhhhhhh. That’s the last time I’ll try reverse psychology with Mother Nature. You just can’t fool a mom

      1. I saw 7 unfortunately. Nighttime tornado, quickly developing, path through a populated area but warning doesn’t get heard by many. Worst case scenario.

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