Tuesday Forecast

75 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
Spring feeling today, sunshine and mild air. Clouds come back late and wet weather tonight marks a transition to cooler and windy weather for Wednesday. High pressure brings fair and tranquil weather Thursday. A late week storm system impacts the region. Currently leaning away from a full phasing of a Mid Atlantic and Great Lakes low as the systems move through the Northeast, so impact should not be major, but the system still has to be watched as this is not set in stone just yet.
TODAY: Early clouds and late clouds, plenty of sun between. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A couple rounds of rain showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. Lows 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, gusting over 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, then diminishing.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix developing. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow, tapering to snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Dry March 8-9 with seasonable temperatures. Moderating temperatures with a threat of unsettled weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Will have to watch this period for an additional unsettled weather as there may be a tendency for some blocking to develop.

75 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Isn’t it time to kiss the Fri-Sat system Good-Bye. Seems so to me anyway.

    Mid-March is NOT the time for blocking. C’mon, couldn’t have it all Winter
    and now it wants to make an appearAnce when we’re ready for Spring.
    We can’t cut a break for nothing. Typical New England Crapfest weather.

    2. I’m reading for snow 12 months out of the year. But March is historically interesting. And don’t forget the seasons are shifting.

    3. We’ll probably have lots of blocking come May, with our luck. I wish TK or a tv met would call it a (snow) season once and for all.

      Every time I see the NBC-10 day forecast, nothing but a 50 or a 60 temp at the end (with a rain event for good measure, of course).

      1. I just saw something interesting on FB. There is a section that lists your friend who might be in the area of severe weather. They can click if they are all right. It’s pretty cool. My oldest has an equestrian friend with a large facility in that area who “clicked” that he is ok.

        Also, I listen to the bobby Bones show mornings and they are in the vicinity but all are ok.

  7. NBC News is now reporting that at least nine are dead from the tornado in Middle Tennessee.

  9. This has been one of the most frustrating Winter seasons for me. Just brutal!
    My wallet thanks Old Man Winter, but other than that*()!@#*(&!@*(#&*(&^!@&*(#!*(@&#*(!@#&!*(@&#*(!&@#*(&!@*(#&*(!@&#*(!&@#*(&!*(@#&*(!@&#*(!&@#*(

    Ok, now PLEASE just bring on Spring. No back door fronts with nauseating
    EAST and NORTHEST winds with crappy DRIZZLE and temperatures
    perpetually in the 40s. PLEASE none of that bullshit. Give me nice sunny days with pleasant temperatures. Can we just have some of that for change? Just this one
    year?

  10. There are 19 deaths in Middle Tennessee, according to the latest from The Tennessean, the Nashville newspaper. Just terrible.

    1. Nightmare scenario. Reminiscent of what happened in Dayton, OH a few months ago with a strong tornado moving over a metro area at night, but unfortunately this time we could not avoid fatalities.

    2. I listened, as I said, to the Bobby Bones show. Bobby didn’t receive or didn’t hear any warnings. Others received warnings on their devices and then said sirens went off everywhere. I have goosebumps just typing this. WxW – you are so right that it is a nightmare scenario. God Bless everyone in that area.

  12. The real irony of the phasing failure of the late week system is that I suspect it’s the fact that we’re getting a stronger than originally modeled Lakes cutter/inside runner tonight in association with our rain event, and that is deforming the flow in such a way that it delays phasing of the following system. The hunch that this would occur contributed to my original idea of favoring a no phase or late phase outcome for the end of the week. In terms of getting snow in SNE, truly everything that could go wrong this winter has gone wrong. Winter’s not “over over”, but I do believe many parts of SNE are done with accumulating snow for this season, at least in terms of >1″ events. All indications remain that March will be a warmer or much warmer than average month. This was probably the one chance to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

    1. Of course and why oh why would it be any other way.

      Bring on a MUCH WARMER than average March. I’m good with that!

      Thanks WxWatcher.

      1. Thanks WxW for finally calling it and putting a merciful end to the 2019-20 (snow) season. I am still waiting for a tv met to look right into the camera to do the same. I just hope that this winter doesn’t represent the “new normal”.

  14. Awful news from Tennessee. The tornado season has begun. On average, tornadoes cause at least 80 deaths per year in the U.S. Some years far more.

    On a lighter note, a meteor struck somewhere near the border of the Netherlands and Belgium. Some cool video: https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/03/videos-meteor-lights-netherlands-belgium-skies

    Back to a more serious note, I’m puzzled by the coronavirus. Its growth factor hovers around 1, which means it’s growing, but only slightly, worldwide. See website below. Yet, its reproduction number (R0) is supposedly 2, which is twice that of influenza. [I’m VERY skeptical about this calculation] R0 is number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period. However, the numbers of cases worldwide do NOT support this. I realize that lack of testing is a factor. But, they’re testing a lot in South Korea, Japan, and many parts of Europe. They’re seeing increases in numbers of infected people, but not nearly the amount one would have expected based on the R0. By now, in the U.S. I would not have been surprised at all if we were at >100,000 cases. But, it doesn’t appear we’re anywhere close to that, even if everyone gets tested. In the U.K. the percentage of suspected cases that have been tested (thousands have been tested) is 0.4%. And remember these are suspected cases.

    Consider influenza with a much lower R0, which infects between 9 and 45 million Americans each year, and kills tens of thousands. Also, bacterial infections which are resistant to treatment kill tens of thousands of Americans every year. Nobody is talking about antimicrobial resistance. Or non-contagious things like alcohol that kills 100,000 every year.

    The alarmist news reports every single case of coronavirus as if all hell is breaking loose. And, I’m kind of sick of it. For a no nonsense, data driven reporting, go to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

    1. With respect to the U.K. I meant to say: In the U.K. the percentage of suspected cases that have been tested (thousands have been tested) and have the novel coronavirus is 0.4%. Remember, these are suspected cases. If they tested everybody the number of people with coronavirus would be <0.1%.

    2. They appear to be saying that there are more cases than they originally thought, and also that it has been in the community longer than they originally thought. The test they were using was not accurate. Who knows. So many individuals do not report or go to the doctor. I don’t listen to reports or frankly to our top ranking leaders. Information from the very top is predictably mixed and only half correct at best. I do what I can to have supplies on hand. Most already are since I believe in being prepared for weather interruptions, etc. Wash may hands. And stay out of crowded places.

      1. I heard on the news this morning that a vaccine is at least 1-1/2 years away. This is not going away anytime soon.

          1. Was just about to post that. Development, animal testing, human trials. But the flu goes away yearly and the vaccines have been in good part useless for at least two years.

      2. You’re right, Vicki. I’m sure there are more cases out there that have gone undetected. This applies here and elsewhere. But, if this disease is twice as contagious as the flu I would have expected to have seen a very sharp increase in ER visits, unexplained deaths, etc … We haven’t. The only anomaly this winter has been a very high number of childhood deaths due to influenza.

        My larger point is that the big picture of public health is not pretty in this country. Still have 650,000 people dying prematurely every year from smoking-related illnesses, 100,000 from alcohol-related illnesses and alcohol-related traffic fatalities, 55,000 from opioids, 45,000 suicides, 35,000 from antimicrobial resistance. The list of preventable deaths is long. Our life expectancy in the U.S. has been on the decline (save for a measly month blip last year) for the past 4 years and stagnant for the past 8. No other industrialized nation has such poor life expectancy numbers. Zero. Yet, stuff like this is not talked about. It’s coronavirus 24/7, and I guess I’m tired of it. I do apologize for the rant and the non-weather discussion.

      3. I suspect Joe’s trip to Italy in 7 weeks is going to be canceled. Meeting tonight .

  17. More on the Nashville tornado:

    The Nashville Weather Service in Nashville says Mt. Juliet in Wilson County and Donelson in Davidson County saw damage from at least one EF-3 tornado Tuesday morning, based on damage surveyed so far.

    An EF-3 tornado has winds of 158-206 mph, according to the Fujita Scale. The tornado hit Mt. Juliet with winds of 155-160 mph. Donelson suffered damage from a 160-165 mph tornado.

    “This is just damage observed in these neighborhoods and it might possibly be the same tornado,” the NWS tweeted.

  18. We’re up to 67 here in JP. Talk about over achieving!!! Feels like SUMMER out there.
    It is WARM!!!

    1. HA HA HA…..
      Wouldn’t ya know it, damn Logan has a SEA BREEZE and is at 55. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Hey, me too LOL. Ask OS, back me. I’m so sure of it, I pulled up all of my edge markers on my 300’ long driveway. Call this one OVA.

  20. re: Coronavirus

    I am virtually certain that there are far more cases than being report.
    Remember, those being reported are only those with a confirmed test.|
    If I got sick now, I am NOT running to the hospital to get tested. There’s nothing
    they can do about it anyway. It’s probably like an ice berg where the tested and
    confirmed cases are probably only 1/10 of what is actually out there. OR something
    like that.

    Get ready. It will be on us all full force before much longer.

    My son was sick last month and had every stinken symptom of coronavirus, but
    we’ll never know if he had it or not. He was damn sick and it was different than
    the flu. So there ya go. Who knows, but I strongly suspect that it is out there
    in the community right now.

    1. I hope your wife will remain in good health as she has enough issues with HHH.

      We can’t get a snow event around here but HHH is always assured every summer season.

    2. Exactly, JPD. Flu was a bit different this year but who knows. It involved upchucking as well as the typical symptoms and that was on confirmed flu cases. My daughter and her two girls had confirmed flu. And it was horrible. All had the shot.

      1. Yes, a lot of good the shots do. Given that, I have NOT been sick
        all Winter. 🙂 🙂 My wife has been sick a few times.

        1. Sorry to hear that. I had assumed that your wife has been relatively healthy so far this season. Hope she is better as of late. 🙂

  21. Does anyone know …..

    If the folks in Norman, OK had identified the area around Tennessee during the past 2-3 days for severe weather and if so, had they identified it as marginal, slight, moderate, etc?

    Also, were there any tornado watches in place in that region last night?

    I know I was hyper focused on our potential weekend storm the past 2-3 days and wanted to know if I was oblivious to this. I certainly am surprised that such a strong tornado developed.

    1. If you go to the NWS Nashville twitter page, Tom, you can get a history of watches and warnings. I think they said something like “even the possibility of a pop-up tornado” late last night.

      1. Yes, just 3 days ago we were advertising lots of rain this week. Not a huge threat anymore. Look for 1-3 inches between today and Thurs. HOWEVER, there is a growing strong to severe threat this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado can’t be ruled out. #tnwx

        From an NWS- Nashville tweet yesterday

  22. Italy was officially canceled right call but holding the money hostage ugh !!!! And I bought insurance. Damn good thing I had something to do tonight because I would have snapped .

    1. I would have been surprised if it has not been cancelled. Responsible call. And as important as money is, it pales in comparison to the alternative

      1. I totally agree with canceling it totally . But I want my 4K back without restrictions like there trying to do !!!!!

          1. My wife said everyone was pissed regarding the money . I still don’t know all the details as I’m at my neighbors house waiting for numbers to come in . Good night Vicki .

        1. You can be sure those are already on some “fake” weather sites with the alarm sounding. The snow weenies have been very very eager to hype something up on their little FB pages. 😉 I actually monitor a couple times and the amounts of times us meteorologists “mild” scenarios or storms not quite materializing have been laughed at in favor of a more wintry forecast is just plain funny. 🙂 I think some of the followers are starting to catch on, based on some of the comments I read.

          We don’t need to ban the models beyond day 4, we just need people who know how to use them making the actual forecasts. 😉

          “I know how to read models, therefore I am qualified to make a forecast that the public can see.” A quote to a colleague of mine by a non-met that runs a page with 0ver 10,000 followers when questioned about it. Actually, the forecast is just copied from local media. Ah well, the children must play.

Comments are closed.