Wednesday Forecast

90 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
A windy Wednesday behind departing but intensifying low pressure and ahead of advancing high pressure. That high moves in with a more tranquil day Thursday. Two low pressure areas (from the Mid Atlantic & Great Lakes) phase off the New England Coast late Friday into Saturday but far enough out that we just get a minor event that starts as rain and ends as a period of snow or snow showers, followed by a mainly dry first full weekend of March as high pressure moves back in, with windiest weather between the departing low and approaching high on Saturday and a little less wind by Sunday but still a breeze as high pressure sinks to the southwest and south of New England.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH, with a few isolated higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing further.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain in the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain changing to snow or snow showers with minor snow accumulation possible. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
Milder March 9 with late-day rain showers from a cold front. Turning cooler March 10 with early rain showers then dry weather returning. Watching the March 11-13 period for the potential for a low pressure system impacting the region with a variety of precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Low confidence but tendency may be for high pressure to north and low pressure to south which leaves this area vulnerable to unsettled weather.

90 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. thanks TK!!
    So far the wind here hasn’t been all that bad, a few gusts into the 20s.

  3. Thank you., TK

    44 with winds NNE gusting to high 20s. Winds seem to have been the story this winter

  5. On the last blog, Mark posted a snow map for the 0Z GFS regarding a storm
    around the 11th.

    Knowing that this is the GFS and 7 days out, please allow me to post
    the 6Z Kuchera snow map for that event. Consider it fantasy or for snow lovers,
    some nice eye candy. I’d feel better IF the Euro had it, but as of now it does not.
    It has a cutter/inside runner type system passing well N&W of our area.

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020030406/240/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    1. Looks like the snow map we saw last week for Friday’s system. Not buying it and have finally convinced myself that it is time to throw in the flag. Pulling up the plow stakes tonight.

      1. Yes, you are probably correct. But keep in mind, just when we give up (ie pull up the snow stakes and store away the snow shovels), is just when the SNOW will STRIKE! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. I know its not a lot, but the 12z NAM has some snow from hrs 54 to 63 in our local area. There is going to be a few to several hour period, where there is some Atlantic moisture influx into our area later Friday.

  12. 12Z GFS is going absolutely BONKERS for the 11th/12th(&!@*()#&&!@*&#*(!

    BONKERS!!!

    Will post snow numbers when it is complete!!!!

    1. IF it were to ever verify, we would end up ABOVE average for the snow season.
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Ha ha ha, right and I am Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the tooth fairy all rolled into one!!!!!!

  13. Fun to look at but were not having the March Blizzard of 1888. You have better shot of upsets and busted brackets for the Men’s NCAA Tournament than that happening.

  15. We have had some big storms in that time period. The Blizzard of 1888 and The 1993 Superstorm. I don’t think were looking at this here.

  18. I’ve printed and put the BIG DADDY map JPDave posted on my bulletin board. Of course, it won’t happen. But, heck, it’s nice to dream sometimes. I’m due to fly to Europe on the 14th. This may be cancelled due to the coronavirus, as the conference I’m participating in is considering nixing the event. And now we’ve got the 1 in in a million chance of a mega storm on Friday the 13th. So, lots of stuff to ponder.

    The winter of 1996-1997 was mostly mild, though not like this year, and then we had te April Fool’s blizzard. So, yes, anything can happen.

    1. There may be a system in that time period. It may snow. It may not snow.
      IF it were to snow, there is no way in the Universe that it would produce the
      snow that the 12Z GFS wants to spit out.

      Given that, this is three (3) runs in succession that advertised a big snow storm, each one more snow than the previous one.

      Will the 18Z run hold serve and deviate entirely. Fun to watch at the very least.

      Betcha Euro wants NO part of this.

      The only concern if you don’t like snow is that this GFS system is
      in the time period that TK is watching.

  19. Long time distance sleet poisoning. This is a characteristic of the new and improved GFS.

  21. If the amount of snow that the GFS projected in its 7 to 10 day window, had verified this winter, it would be accumulated to the former observation deck in the Hancock Building.

  22. Trees down in Duxbury, Auburn, Hanover and Halifax…

    Outdoor burning has been suspended for the day in Middleborough and Lakeville.

    The latest obs at East Taunton airport has 31 mph gusts with a relative humidity at 39%.

  23. Basically in short: the GFS still sucks for snow.

    And I’m a little perplexed about so many “sunny” forecasts today. A quick analysis this morning showed we’d have abundant passing clouds

  27. The GFS has shown a lot of fantasy blizzards over the years but that is one of the better ones.

    1. Indeed it is. ONLY IF it were true. 🙂 I might make my snow projection
      total for the season.

      At this point, I’d be happy with a routine 6-12 inches.

    1. Comes close to the time several years ago when the NAM was showing
      60 inches for Boston. 🙂 🙂 🙂 These type of massive snow projections
      NEVER verify! NEVER!

      I am waiting for the first run where this system either goes poof or
      cuts through the LAKES!!!!

      1. I’m going to loon tomorrow OS. I’ll pack a cooler full of snow for you with a couple of beers too. I’ll bring it with me to the back bay for you

    1. That’s ok. Next week’s event will melt over a couple days’ time, even if it’s a lot of snow. 😉

  31. Did I see an update from Tennessee that dozens of people are still missing from where the tornado hit?

  32. Have the snow come late next week and not late the following week when I am heading up to Albany NY for the first and second rounds of the men’s NCAA Tournament.

  33. Quick peak at the latest SREF and ups the ante for snowfall for eastern MA Friday night into Saturday. I am not biting on that.

  35. re: Coronavirus

    Lastest from the website Joshua posted.
    Total US cases: 149 Deaths: 11 Death Rate: 7.4%
    That my friends is very high and higher than any other country. Not sure why?
    Perhaps only the worst cases are being reported? I don’t know, but I am not
    liking this data!

    1. My sons trip to Italy next month was canceled & now the company is holding over 4K of my Money hostage . They even had the guts to go ahead yesterday & withdraw the final over $300 dollars out of folks accounts knowing it was canceled .

  36. From NWS

    At this point looking at a
    coating to an inch of snow for most locations. Given the inverted
    trough setup with the upper low lagging behind the sfc center, best
    chance of some overperforming totals would be around a
    convergence/instability axis to the north/west of the low.
    Confidence that this feature will materialize is low at this
    time though.

    1. Although some reports have the number one or so different.

      A friend in the area said she felt there would have been many more casualties I’d the tornadoes have occurred during the day. She made a good point. I hadn’t thought of that

  39. SSK…..all I can say is whatever agency is sponsoring and handling your sons trip to Italy is nothing less than ultimate sleeze. The governor has asked all schools to cancel trips out of country. With all of the stress that goes with this and the obvious disappointment to the students, this is beyond unacceptable.

    1. So basically Vicki they are putting out a poll of a few places to see if the kids want to go which the kids wanted to go this year they may not want to go next year to certain place or maybe can’t ( seniors can’t etc ) if the interest is not there for another trip they only will give you 50% of your money back . So you are forced to make a trip that you may not want to go on or your friend may not even go or you loose & no guarantees that trip won’t cost more but if it did EF the company would give you $4o0 towards it ( wow how generous) plain BS. Last statement I’ll make the company has been withdrawing over $300 each mount ( it’s been tough ) yesterday was the final payment and they had the —— to withdraw that knowing that night they called the trip . I’m totally in agreement of the cancellation & I agree but I paid $200 for trip insurance give me my money back . Well sir pandemic isn’t included . This virus is affecting a lot of people financially.

      1. Ssk. Please call the attorney generals office. This is not legal If the governor has said done go….it has to be covered. This is beyond revolting. I’m so sorry you have to go through this

      2. Agree with Vicki. In addition to her suggestion, call a new station that has one of those reporters that digs into these type of rip offs. I can’t imagine the company would want this kind of publicity.

  40. Agree, JPDave, that the case fatality rate for COVID-19 in the U.S. is very high. Keep in mind that it was also very high in China early on, until more and more people got tested. Same in South Korea. There are more than 149 cases in the U.S. for sure, and most are mild. But, it’s not reassuring to those who get quite sick (15-20%). It’s somewhat of a lottery in terms of who’s a mild versus severe case.

    1. It’s also not reassuring to anyone over 30 when they make the comment that folks under 30 are not typically dying. I know that is GREAT…..but saying it should reassure us is a very odd choice of words

      There a many under 30 with underlying conditions too.

    1. jp dave this is what i saw on facebook. its not reallt clear and zoomed in but that does look like it shifted west. I am not having any hopes thought after seeing the latest gfs

  45. Only about a 30 inch difference in snowfall forecast for Boston between the 12z & 00z GFS.

    So, once again, tell me why anybody looks at snowfall forecasts beyond a couple days out on models, other than pure amusement? 😉

    1. I was wondering the same thing. Like did the people who saw the 12z not see literally any previous storm that never materialized this entire winter? It’s charlie brown and lucy with the football every single time.

      1. Oh it goes back quite a long time. I remember people at college would get really excited about certain maps rolling off the difax, and be disappointed just about every time. And then think “why do we try to forecast 108 hours out?!” … I might have been one of them. 😉

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