7:20AM
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
Two low pressure areas merge offshore today and tonight, then move away Saturday, with the process taking place just far enough southeast to spare the region a major storm, but close enough to put Cape Cod on the edge of it, where some accumulating snow and strong wind gusts will occur. It will be windy elsewhere too, though not as strong. A significant warm-up occurs later in the weekend through Monday as high pressure sinks to the south of the region. A back-door cold front may arrive Tuesday bringing much cooler air at least to a portion of the region.
TODAY: Clouding up. Highs 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light mix/snow I-95 corridor and steadier and heavier snow for a while southern Plymouth County through Cape Cod with 1-3 inches possible. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH with gusts 15-25 MPH central MA and southwestern NH, 15-25 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH I-95 corridor, 25-35 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH southern Plymouth County through Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with lingering snow over Cape Cod early morning otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod, higher gusts likely.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 southeastern MA, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and eastern coast of MA. Wind variable up to 10 MPH may shift to N and NE.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Temperatures closer to seasonable levels. Potential unsettled weather from up to 3 passing systems around March 11, 13, and 15.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Additional low pressure may impact the region early in the period then a turn to fair weather. Temperatures near to above normal.
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks TK
Thank you TK.
12Z NAM, so close, yet so far….
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020030612/018/ref1km_ptype.conus.png
Shows a touch of snow in the air in Boston with no accumulation. Small accumulation
Cape and Islands.
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020030612/018/ref1km_ptype.conus.png
Not for nothing, but a 964 mb system is pretty impressive.
Yup.
Been watching this potential for somewhere March 6-8 for 10 days. Sometimes we can see things that far out.
What we can’t know that far out is detail. That’s why I use terms like “potential”. And there are other potentials ahead.
Indeed it was. Imagine if the phasing happened sooner
and this system passed just South of Nantucket or
thereabouts. WOW!!
Oh well, you certainly were aware of the possibilities
and for 10 days out, you were dead on!!!
250 miles NW and we’d be easily in the 1-2 feet range.
🙂 🙂 🙂
The words “snow” and “potential” are always synonymous with each other just like the words “rain” and “likely”. 😉
I must say you are persistent. 🙂
True, but off the top of my head, I can’t recall as many NWS Statements with the words “rain” and “potential” in them except in regard to “flooding”. The rain event itself is usually a given. Just my perception I suppose. 🙂
Thank you TK!
Not that this means it’s coming up here, but look at this interesting satellite loop
as it shows some cloudiness moving Northward up the Hudson.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=newengland-02-24-1
I think I see what you mean, but the southern energy clouds still appears to remain separate and heading east.
Snowfall forecasts from around the dial https://i.imgur.com/EvybRAq.jpg
Thanks Doc.
Thanks. Notice that NBC-10 is the only station with no coating for Boston.
just came in from an office fire drill.
It is really getting WINDY outside and we’re a long long long way from
the developing storm center.
What a great satellite shot, thank you JpDave! You can clearly see all of the players on the field. Too bad the game is going to be blacked out for us this time.
Yep, story of our Winter season. Oh well, not much we can do about it. 🙂
This latest 15Z HRRR really shows how close this thing wants to come.
https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020030615/015/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
Philip..
The snow/potential vs rain/likely comparison is not as you described. The best advice I can give you is to read the daily discussion from the National Weather Service since it’s available.
Yes, I have read their discussions and I usually see the word “potential” used much more often regarding snow events than rain events.
And I have seen the word “potential” used for flash flooding.
And rain events. About most events. I read the discussion every day.
Thanks, TK…Thinking about your Mom, you and your family…Hope all is well.
Thank you. She is handling this like an NHL player. Tough as nails.
It really got dark out. I have been monitoring satellite and radar trends. I am not
so sure the snow stays out of Boston???? Will continue to monitor.
Is this echo in the Merrimack Valley real?
https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=26392108&lat=0&lon=0&label=you
Hi Dave we did have a light rain shower go through Andover in the last few minutes. Just enough to make things have a “wet” look.
A real soaker down here in NJ today. Dynamic cooling is leading to a few reports of snowflakes mixing in, but it’s by and large a rain event. Doesn’t get much closer than this in terms of a classic East Coast blizzard. Just a little bit of blocking would’ve done the trick I think. We’re onto spring for real now 🙂
Shout out to TK for advertising this time period just over two weeks ago I believe. Second shoutout toWxWatcher for nailing down the late phasing a few days ago. We’re lucky to have the finest folks in the business to communicate and learn from! Outstanding work!!
Agree 100% Diamond
So close yet so far. I am hoping there will be plenty of thunderstorms to track this summer as this has been a disappointing winter for being a big snow lover.
7 Day Forecasts from around the dial https://imgur.com/a/gmDsG8C
what a nice stretch on top of what has been a nice stretch. Full blown early-mid spring stuff.
Heavy Mush made up of water, ice and snow slush was falling from the sky in Uxbridge when I left about 45 min ago. By the time I got home, it had dropped to a drizzle.
Interesting NE to SW band of precip from Boston’s southwest suburbs to Providence, RI. Saw on some simulated radars this location for a precip band showing up briefly in the midnight to 4am time frame.
Raining here for the last hour, Tom. Can’t really tell, but I think I may have seen a couple of wet snowflakes. A gust of wind just blew the front door open. Temperature down to 37.
Down to 35.8 in the last 15 minutes.
Snowing moderately where I am right now near Foxwoods in SE CT. Very wet snow. Car thermometer actually says 36
Sounds like what we had. We were at 41. It was intense for a bit while I was driving Enjoy Foxwoods
Snowing light to moderately and sticking on grassy surfaces in North Atlleboro.
Hmmm. Are you saying I should get off the couch and look out the window?
Spitting snow here
Snowing pretty good in pembroke I just got home .
Steady light snow in the city. 36 here.
The Euro wants to keep putting massive high pressure in eastern Canada toward mid month. This is intriguing.
Cold and dry?
In like a lamb, out like a lion?
Hmmmm
As in this?
https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020030700/198/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
So strong, it suppresses the system depicted here to the South of us!!!
https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020030700/216/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
long way off, but go figure!!!
Reasonable with frozen Hudson Bay and all that Canada eastern snow-cover.
NWS statement on fire danger. Another box checked that spring is upon us.
The 18-24” of massive snow that we “just” missed would have taken care of any spring fire danger. Oh well. What a difference of a hundred miles west would have made.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
To their credit, several mets last night mentioned the very high degree of high uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
New update will be posted very soon.
Good morning, everyone, and thanks, TK:
Just a tick under 3″ here in Taunton in a pretty neat, little storm last night.
I can’t believe the weather channel people . They were talking about wind gust and mentioned ” Provincetown, R.I. “
The crew there seems to have an issue with geography. I actually watched TWC for about an hour one day and another half hour another day to kind of gauge where the channel is these days. Ouch.
The founders of this channel did not envision this, I guarantee that.
https://imgur.com/a/ZRHGwtF
Is this the kind of scenario the euro may be depicting for mid month TK?
Aidan, I’ve also seen the weather channel people confuse Concord, NH and Concord, MA.
Beautiful sunny day but windy here at Killington today. They got about an inch of new snow overnight and still a healthy base with the mountain about 95% open. Driving up here, not much snow on the ground until we got off 91 inRockingham VT and started heading NW away from the CT River valley. Then it increased fairly rapidly.
Passed a car with RI plates on the way up completely caked with snow.
Like Mark described above, many cars driving in eastern Marshfield caked in a layer of snow, while we really don’t have any on the ground.
The ocean : wow ! Brant rock had some flooding. The skaket beach cam shows a major storm surge in cape cod bay during high tide an hour ago.
Finally posted new blog.