Monday Forecast

89 Comments

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
Pick of the week comes right at the start, as a westerly air flow transports a shot of warm air into the region today along with plenty of sun to go with it. The back-door cold front we’ve been keeping an eye on for Tuesday will only make its way into southern NH and northeastern MA for a short time in the early hours of the day before a stronger southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front pushes it back to the north, so Tuesday, despite more cloudiness, will also be quite mild other than a brief chillier interlude in those locations where the front passes by for a few hours. The cold front from the west will bring a round of rain showers Tuesday night and a shot of cooler air for Wednesday. A follow-up low pressure area will bring some rain (and possible mix to the north) Wednesday night but that moves right along so that Thursday is likely precipitation-free. The fast-flowing pattern brings the next round of wet weather in during Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 southeastern MA, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 southern NH and northeastern MA, 46-53 elsewhere. Wind W up to 10 MPH except NE in northeastern MA and southern NH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers of rain likely, possibly mixed with snow southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
High pressure may control the weather this entire period, starting breezy and cool as low pressure moves away and the high approaches, then more tranquil, chilly at first, then moderating temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
Dry with moderating temperatures to start the period. Unsettled weather risk increases thereafter.

89 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Vicki: To answer your cloud question. Those are cirrocumulus. The rarest of the “common” clouds. I got a great shot of some yesterday afternoon myself.

    1. Thank you. They are fascinating. Two grands and I just sat and watched them. The seven year old and Macs little buddy decided papa was drawing in the clouds.

  9. I read all the virus commentary on the blog yesterday. Agree with some of it and disagree with most. I’ll keep the peace.

    Having been in health care connected fields for 20 years, I keep up on my reading because I like the subject matter. I have 1,000 comments but I’ll make 2 of them and both are about the weather.

    As weather people, one subject for us is will the heat and sunlight over the summer will slow down or kill the the growth of the virus which it has done with other viruses in the past. Scientists are hopeful, but many have said that because this has happened in the past does not necessarily mean it will do so with this virus. I also remain hopeful. It is something for us to watch.

    The 2nd is that we tend to focus on the virus and healthcare (HC) in the USA. Many, many nations have pathetic HC systems. You can Google the top 10 worst countries for HC and get several lists. Countries like Sierra Leone and Mayanmar (Burma) are always mentioned. These nations are ill-equipped to handle an epidemic. Though these countries are less traveled, I fear that once there, the virus will persist and it may take our friend, the weather to “solve” it. Older adults, those with health/immune conditions, and underdeveloped nations will be vulnerable for some time to come. But Mother Nature may come to the rescue.

    1. Good comment.

      My info is coming mostly from my BIL who has authored the majority of hospital disaster plans and in the western third, maybe quarter, of our country.

      I heard a good comment this am.

      It’s not as bad as media is making it or as harmless as the government is making it

      I trust neither.

    2. I’m somewhat surprised that there has been no discussion in comparing the 1918 influenza outbreak. I believe that was worldwide as well and if I’m not mistaken WW I soldiers started spreading that virus, not intentionally of course.

      Perhaps the CDC should reflect on history and results of 1918 which may give a valuable clue for today’s corona virus.

      1. Longshot: Can you give the answers to your trivia question? I was stumped on what a “pilot tube” is. I could have simply looked it up but I prefer to figure them out on my own, even on a wild guess. 🙂

        1. I think I posted answers already. or maybe I did not. I know I spelled the name wrong. It’s pitot, not pilot. I’ll repost.

        1. I don’t think it is panic as much as uncertainty due to the lies and conflicting comments Coming from Washington…and the ineptness we have seen so far. People can handle difficulty…..as long as they are told the facts

          1. Don’t kid yourself there. It’s being headlined that way but trust me, Saudi took this as an opportunity to bury US shale producers. That’s what’s going on. Brass knuckles business.

  10. Re-post

    Answers to Trivia Quizzes.

    Trivia Quizzes

    1) What is the criteria for a High Wind Warning?
    A. 40 mph winds sustained for 1 hour.
    B. Gusts of at least 58 mph.
    C. Gusts and sustained winds more than 50 mph.
    D. Either A or B.

    The answer id D.

    2) What does a pitot tube measure?
    A. Airspeed of an aircraft
    B. Exact rainfall measurement
    C. Soil temperature
    D. Cloud density

    The answer is A. I think I spelled pitot wrong yesterday and mistakenly said pilot. The pitot actually measures the speed of the air around an aircraft (or it could be a race car or anything like that.). In other words, it measures the speed of the wind around the airplane.

      1. Yes, thanks Longshot. I got the second one wrong regardless of the spelling of that word. 🙂

  11. So far today, Logan’s temp gets the Goldilocks seal of approval.

    Not too hot, not too cool, just right.

  12. Ok back to weather where we belong

    Snow on the ground or in the air this date for past two years.

    Love the Goldilocks comparison

  14. I haven’t been commenting much as I am not in the area and been busy. Anyways none of the games of oil etc would happen if we more aggressively going towards green energy.

    Weather is being crazy here in St. Thomas USVI, we been very cloudy and wet for the past month, my cistern is filled to the top. (YEY 🙂 ) The thing is that this is suppose to be the dry season. The pattern that has been giving you all lack luster snow season, has been creating below normal temperatures, increased clouds and increased rainfall here in the Virgin Islands. Low temperatures last night were in the /mid 60s with mist/heavy rain. Highs been ranging in the 70s. ( which is great in my mind but some of the locals are saying this is cold and not normal)

    1. Viki to answer your question from yesterday, my source is from my parents, medical people that I have worked with at MGH and doing my research instead of listening to just the news. We been talking. A major thing that the general public does not really pay attention to is the mortality rate of the virus which is a better measure for comparisons than # of people killed. The mortality rate of the corona virus is much lower than the flu. The flu rate of .13 while the corona is at 0.11. This of course will change as we go. So it actually is around the same and has also been killing people of similar ages that have other medical issues. There have actually been worst out breaks of similar viruses.

      2. Excellent informed information Matt . ST Thomas must me nice I was supposed to travel to ST Lucia next month but had to cancel it just wasn’t the right time

      3. Where did you get that mortality rate? Are you looking at
        deaths per million?

        The death rate for corona is the #deaths/#cases
        which comes to 3.4%.

        Deaths per million population is a different animal.

  15. Brush fire along 146 in Sutton. From what I can tell five or six towns have fire equipment on the scene. I’m afraid this is going to be a difficult fire season

  17. Thanks all for keeping what is a potentially volatile discussion as civil as you can. One thing I hope you all share in common is just wanting to get through whatever it all is the best we can.

    Enjoy the rest of the day. I am going for a long walk with Nate, maybe around a lake. If all goes well, I’ll greet the full moon’s rise along the shoreline this evening.

  18. I don’t think this has been mentioned, but looks like there will be NO mud season
    in SNE. I was just out in the yard, walking around in areas that would usually be
    pure mud with these temps this time of year. NOPE! Everything is as if it were late
    April/Early May and NOT March 9th!!!! No Snow and not enough cold this Winter.

  19. Thanks TK. What a spectacular day, really a great day to go outside and forget about all of today’s headlines for a little while. Definitely another great example of how temperatures always overperform on days like this.

    I do share the concerns about a bad fire season, at least for our standards in the East. Lack of snow and lack of precip in general, combined with continued above normal temperatures, means we’ll have some high risk days in the coming weeks. We’ve already had some issues down this way where it’s been even warmer and less snowy. Looks quite likely that Philadelphia will finish with 0.3” of snow on the season. I can’t say I’ve ever experienced a winter like this one.

    1. As you know I share your concern.

      Oddly, and perhaps not related, we have more crocuses popping up than we have since moving here. That’s only 5 springs but …. and tulips that usually come up later are already popping through the earth.

  20. Matt, I believe your case fatality rate (CFR) for coronavirus (actually, for COVID-19; the disease rather than the virus) is too low. South Korea has achieved a very low CFR of 0.6%. But, the CFR across all affected countries is much higher: in the 2-3% range. Some suggest there are multiple strains. Others simply say it has to do with the numbers tested in each different jurisdiction.

    COVID-19 is not influenza, or a severe rhinovirus. It’s more serious. However, it’s not as efficiently transmitted as influenza. Were it more efficient we’d be seeing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of cases worldwide by now.

    This said, COVID-19 may be the `black swan’ event that cripples the economy and presidency. Economists’ biggest concern is uncertainty. When there is uncertainty, people flock to safe havens: Gold, for example, or cash. Usually uncertainty is confined to one region and is not a global phenomenon. At this point, there is massive, global uncertainty. Could this become a 2008 repeat? Probably not. But, I believe a severe recession is coming. [I did not believe this several months ago, in the absence of coronavirus] Because the government is running record deficits, and the interest rates are already low, there are very few tools at government’s disposal to deal with a downturn.

  21. Tremendous temperature differential today in New England. It’s cloudy and 26F in Presque Isle. In the 70s in parts of SNE. This happens in March, I know. But, it’s still remarkable. Snow in the forecast in Northern Maine. Single digits later this week (at night).

    I recall in 1998 an even larger differential. We had a mini snowstorm (4 inches). Then, it melted away and temps soared into the 80s. Meanwhile Northern Maine was having snow and it was firmly stuck in the 20s. I recall Tim Kelley showing a weather map that was truly incredible in terms of differences across NE.

  22. Tremendous temperature differential today in New England. It’s cloudy and 26F in Presque Isle. In the 70s in parts of SNE. This happens in March, I know. But, it’s still remarkable. Snow in the forecast in Northern Maine. Single digits later this week (at night).

    I recall in 1998 an even larger differential. We had a mini snowstorm (4 inches). Then, it melted away and temps soared into the 80s. Meanwhile Northern Maine was having snow and it was firmly stuck in the 20s. I recall the met Tim Kelley showing a weather map that was truly incredible in terms of differences across NE.

  25. I am suppose to be up in Albany NY late next week for the NCAA Men’s Tournament first and second rounds. It will be interesting to see what the NCAA decides to do with the coronavirus.

    1. Whatever it takes. Unless we start learning from China and being aggressive, we will be shoveling the proverbial sheet into the wind.

  27. When it comes to the sports world in this country it will be interesting to see how things play out. Will teams play in empty arenas? I know the NHL is banning the press from the locker room and all interviews will be done in the press conference area.

    1. All sports teams followed with the press I just saw & will just follow what the other does . The Boston marathon is huge here with runners coming from all over this very well might get called because they just can’t cancel that at the last minute. Tough to swallow for the runners if it happens as so much training goes into this one run , I should know I ran it for the hospital & it was almost called off the year I ran Nor Easter .

            1. I kiiiid I kiiiiid. My more immediate thought is st patricks parades. Ireland has cancelled them all – just to give an idea of their treatment of the severity of it all.

    2. Empty arenas would only happen under an official quarantine. We’d still have to go to work but large gatherings / events / bars – would be no go.

  28. This media driven hype and hysteria is mind boggling.

    627 confirmed cases in the US and 26 deaths was the latest I heard as of today. For a country of 327 million people, that puts someone’s odds of catching it at .000002%. And even if you catch it, your odds of having anything beyond flu like symptoms that would result in death are remote (3% ?). And of those 26 who died, the vast majority were the elderly with pre-existing health issues which does not apply to the vast majority of the population.

    Conversely, there are 35 million cases of the flu each year in the US and 36,000 deaths yet no one bats an eye about traveling and gathering in common places during peak flu season.

    I personally will do what I also do and wash my hands frequently and before eating, not touch my hands to my face, etc. But based on the current prevalence of this disease in our area, there is no reason to be staying home from work, school, avoiding public places, canceling public events, etc. Complete and utter hysteria….

    1. To put it in another context, your chances of dying in a car accident are 1 in 8,000. One person dies every 13 minutes in a car crash in the US. Yet, we all get into our cars every day and don’t bat an eye….

      1. I’m going to bottom line this in the simplest way:

        1. The media needed a new frenzy to drive reading and viewing. Has been pretty “boring” of late.

        2. Wall Street needed a reason to scare off the weak hands and drive selling to where they can pick up shares at 70 cents on the dollar.

        As I mentioned last week, more people will be harmed by the net impact of the hysteria than by the virus.

        2. Exponentially more. It has pretty much single handedly sent our economy into a freefall from a bull market to bear market in a couple short weeks. Travel industry in particular is reeling. The stock market has lost 6000 points in a few weeks! Insanity.

          1. Working with economists and folks who depend on economic health, we were overdue for a reset. If this didn’t bring it on, something else would have. Part of the problem…..which I’ve known for a very long while and Joshua touched on….is that the president kept insisting the interest rate remain low. The rate is one of the factors used to offset a recession. But that ship sailed a while ago. There is a whole lot more involved. It just isn’t as simple as Covid 19. We needed to be prepared for a slow down. We were not.

            1. I do agree we were overdue for a correction. Was not expecting a complete crash. I am cautiously optimistic though that the markets will recover some when this virus scare and oil crisis pass.

              Dow futures are up 550 for tomorrow. Always best not to panic and make rash decisions with your investments in these volatile periods.

              1. Heck. We put a bit more in stocks. That said…I’m old enough to be cautious so for now I’m still up for the year.

                We may not have been expecting a crash but we should have been prepared.

      1. For older people with pre-existing conditions like yourself, I would certainly be exercising caution. But very similar to what I would be doing as a standard course of action to avoid getting the flu and a myriad of other harmful contagious viruses that are prevalent out there and not getting the attention of the coronavirus.

    4. While I do believe there is a lot of hysteria one need look only to Italy to see the fact they have quarantined all of italy as something of a wind change. Italy is testing more and knows of more cases. There are far more cases than the number you quoted in the us – we just don’t know it yet because the testing is not as widespread. The real panic will set in when we know the actual numbers and people think a massive jump has happened. Hope for the best prepare for the worst and try not to digest too much tv. Fear is far more contagious than coronavirus.

      3. Yes agree. Though even if the number of confirmed cases was 100 times what I quoted (62,700), it would not change my view. The odds of contracting it are still de minimus if you look at it from a purely statistical standpoint (.0002%).

  30. As I mentioned the other day, I was up at Killington Saturday. This was the shot I took on the Superstar lift. They were pounding it with snow as temps held in the 20’s all day. The base on the trail I would now estimate is at least 25 FEET….

    https://imgur.com/ft5SlR3

    If you click on the magnifying glass and enlarge the picture, you can see the skiers on top of the snow mound in comparison to the level of ground below the lift. That’s an enormous amount of snow.

    We’ll see how long they can last this year as it looks like a milder spring than they have had the past couple seasons. May be hard to make it to June 1 this year.

  32. I heard on the CBS Evening News today that separating people from themselves (i.e. cancelling St. Patrick’s Day parade, no fans at sporting events, etc.) was how the 1918 influenza virus was defeated. The medical community believes that is the best way to deal with this for awhile. Whatever it takes.

  33. Greetings from the ever nocturnal, long lost Mama Mia!

    Ok – two huge caveats – first I haven’t yet read the other posts above or yesterday re the virus, and second is that I am NOT a doctor. Or even in the field of health. So I arguably have zero right opining on Covid-19. But as you all know I know about that much about meteorology and weather yet you all welcome me here so as with anything I can remotely intelligibly comment on :

    My understanding – and did I mention yet at least ten times I’m not a doctor or anything close so this is just based on my reading of recent articles and watching documentaries – is that the issue with this one is because it’s a brand new virus – completely new to the human population and to doctors – and it’s super contagious. Thr experts anticipate initially up to 67 percent of the world population will come down with it as soon as they’re exposed. Whereas with non-new viruses there’s a built in population that has built up immunity and/or has had a vaccine. 67 percent of the world doesn’t get the flu all at once. So it’s not just about how deadly it is because even a .4 percent mortality rate on 60-67 percent of the world population all at once is insanity. But unfortunately given uneven access to care it will probably end up closer to 3-5 percent worldwide. It’s about how contagious it is. If it hit everywhere and all at once it would completely overwhelm the health care system, the economy, everything. So I think quarantines are used to hopefully break the outbreak into slower waves that hit over time rather than a tsunami all at once. But I don’t think they have enough data yet to understand what the actual mortality rate is – they way I see it there’s a min minimum 6 week cycle to catch it, incubate, become ill, and have a negative outcome. First deaths in Wuhan were in late December and it probably landed here in mid Jan if you follow the logic and the event dates. I think we will unfortunately learn more quickly over the next weeks. But more testing and more data are the real keys. I’m very concerned that my elderly parents stay home and safe. I would do the same if there was a community flu outbreak. But people in the Boston area of the US shouldn’t needlessly worry. They may quarantine to avoid overwhelming the system and if so the economy will get hit hard, but it’s not the apocalypse.

    1. That’s the boundary (back-door). It will head back north soon. SAK actually pointed that out 6 days in advance.

      1. wow …. I also seem to recall seeing it days in advance in your forecast, as well. Great job to you both !

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