Wednesday Forecast

103 Comments

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
High pressure gives way to an approaching disturbance today, so a sunny start turns into a cloudy finish, but any precipitation with the passing disturbance tonight, although it may be in the form of mix/snow in southern NH and northern MA while falling as rain to the south, will be on the light side. Clouds will be more stubborn and will hang around a good part of Thursday in between weather systems, so we may need luck to see much sunshine (let’s hope this forecast is too pessimistic). Next low pressure system is a quick mover and I am moving up the timing from yesterday’s update, so that we should be seeing rain arrive west to east Friday morning and depart west to east by evening. With a bit of luck the wettest weather will occur between the 2 main commutes. The weekend: Canadian high pressure moves in, dry/cool/breezy Saturday, dry/less wind/colder Sunday.
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light snow/mix/rain southern NH and northern MA, light rain to the south. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with a period of rain late morning to mid afternoon. Breaking clouds late day. Highs 48-55 except may briefly reach 55-62 in some southern areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting briefly to SW then W and increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty late day. FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
Fair and chilly under the influence of Canadian high pressure March 16. Disturbance from the west brings light precipitation at times March 17, anything from snow to sleet to rain possible, but a minor system. Fair weather returns March 18. High degree of uncertain thereafter. For now, still leaning toward mainly dry weather and a warm-up for March 19-20, but there is reliable guidance which says otherwise, but is inconsistent from previous forecasts. Will re-evaluate.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
A boundary nearby continues to make for even more uncertainly in an already normally uncertain beyond-10-day forecast. We’ll have to watch for a quick turn to cold and still cannot rule out something frozen falling from the sky sometime during this period.

103 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    BEAUTIFUL day!!!!

    Feels like temps destined to overachieve. Will they? Who knows. Just feels that way.

  4. The trend is your friend. Very dry ground before green up,the trees will start feeding on the ground water soon if not already.

  5. Thanks tk. Bugs are coming out more and more full force. Starting to get random ants appearing in the house which usually happens in april.

    1. Ticks are around all year but quite active now. Grandson was stung by a wasp yesterday. Even mosquitoes are out. A nice frost would make me happy if it can kill them at least.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Went to a community garden yesterday, and it looked the same as it did in November! Not dormant for the most part. I’ve never seen it that way in March. Always dormant and brown. This year green, with some brown, but clearly most of the vegetation and weeds grew all winter.

    My European conference has been cancelled. I’m doing a videoconference instead. Problem for me is I won’t be able to see my daughter if I don’t go, and that could be for many months, perhaps much longer. I could go next week as I still have a ticket – I could change it but I can’t travel in April, May, and June due to work. So, I don’t know when I’ll see her next, given that this may be a very long duration problem.

    1. I am so sorry that is the case. As you say, you could go. If you do, depending
      upon how things go, you may get stuck there. Perhaps that wouldn’t be
      a bad thing. Just saying.

      Good luck

      1. There is Skype. I’m not into the current technology like I probably should but Joshua could at least “see” and talk to his daughter via video chat. Perhaps others here can explain how it works. All you need is a smartphone.

    2. I hope you can see your daughter . My thinking only with obviously nothing to back it up I think this will blow over in the near future like usually after the winter the flu backs off . I also could be wrong . Best of luck my friend

    3. Hi Joshua.

      JpDave’s comment is right. Even if you decide to go, you have to think about whether you’ll be allowed back or maybe quarantined when you get back. Things are changing quickly now. Many think that there’s a lot of overkill going on to stop the spread of the virus, but what they do not understand is that containing a virus sometimes requires overkill. In short, you could get there and the game could change before you get back. (And I do understand very much about seeing your daughter.)

  9. Thanks TK.

    Euro weeklies are pretty much a torch the next 4 weeks right into early April. I usually don’t call the snow season so early but I would be very surprised at this point if we are able to muster anything beyond a trace of snow before we can officially close the books on this winter.

      1. The northern VT, White Mountains, and western ME ski areas still have a lot of snow and good bases. That said I don’t think any of the mountains will make it as long as they did the last two seasons.

        The MA and CT ski areas will likely be done by the end of the month. Most areas in VT and the Whites/ME I think will be done early-mid April. The exceptions being Jay Peak which has tons of snow and should make it to late April, and Killington which will be skiing on Superstar well into May.

    2. ….for SNE. NNE is still in the game but even there I don’t see any major winter weather events in the near to mid term.

    1. Other than 2012 it’s been awhile since we’ve had a very early leaf out.

      That would at least help slow down fire season somewhat.

  14. From CNN

    World Health Organization says it’s seeing “alarming levels of inaction”
    From CNN Health’s Jamie Gumbrecht

    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing today that the agency is “deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction” when he said the novel coronavirus outbreak is a pandemic.

    He added: “We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: All countries can still change the course of this pandemic.”

  18. I watched Mark Rosenthal’s “Weatherblast” for today and he insists that winter may not be over just yet. The PV and a pattern change late next week? We’ll see.

    I bet this is what TK is seeing as well.

    1. It can happen very quickly and the medium range models may not see it coming. Although the ECMWF has an idea that something is up. I’m just not biting blindly without some consistency.

        1. Yes. And that is entirely possible. But even taking the pattern into account and what we can discern about the upcoming weather, we simply cannot count it out yet. If you look at our spring snow events, historically they are not really “seen” coming until maybe 2, maximum 3 days before they occur. We usually at least have a closer to 4 day feel about systems more inside the winter seasons.

  19. I did cancel my trip. Btw, there’s a lot of fine print regarding cancellation fee waivers. I got some of my money back, but am down about $500. It’s okay. I actually feel sorry for the boutique hotels where I booked. They’re going to have a brutal year.

    Thank goodness for Skype so that I can communicate with my daughter Lisa.

    On another personal note – and a result of coronavirus – my son was laid off today. Suffolk University library is laying off most of their staff. In-person classes are cancelled, so no students. No promise the library staff will be rehired in September either. I suspect the job losses country-wide will be massive in the coming months, as in tsunami like. Recession is unavoidable.

  20. No audiences for the Democrat debates.

    No audience for the upcoming markey kennedy debate.

    Also no audiences for: Live with kelly and ryan, wendy williams, good morning america, dr. Phil and more (with more to follow – some state SNL for example may soon announce a similar measure.)

      1. I’m hoping I’m not looking for a new TV tomorrow after watching it. Let’s hope we get at least mostly truth

  23. I won’t be going to Albany, NY next week for the NCAA Tournament. I feel bad and was looking forward to going but safety first. The Golden State Warriors will play tomorrow night without fans when they play the Brooklyn Nets.

  24. Our office has NOT yet given the word for staff to work from home. Still “monitoring”
    the situation. Famous last words.

    1. Tough call with that for some businesses because the question is how long would be prudent to have people who could work from home do just that? A scientific investigator I heard described this in weather terms by saying people are treating this as if it’s a blizzard duration event but this is more of a whole season event. It was certainly an eye opening discussion and very matter of fact – he makes a few other weather analogies and I recommend watching it if you want to be as informed as possible https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

      1. Thank you Good Doctor!! THANK YOU!!!

        HOLY GOOD F**K)(!@(#&*(!&@#(*&!@(*#&(!*@&#!@#*

        Thanks for sharing. Now that is the real deal and not the Bullshit that has been going around. This is DEADLY SERIOUS!!!!

        1. It’s scary to think about but good to be informed. Eat as healthy as possible, wash hands, get plenty of sleep – all the normal things we ought to be doing and it is the best preventative care we can hope to have to build up in the worst case scenario. If we have visitors over (we scarcely do thankfully) their first order of business will be to wash their hands.

  25. Containment is a tough subject and tough to implement against a virus. To many people, much of this seems like overkill. Some of it is because there is no highly visible person in the public or private sector who wants to be second guessed or accused of not doing all they could have. Their political survival rate would be low.

    The other piece is that you have to OVERKILL everything to contain a virus. It is beyond the word “difficult.” Imagine any one of us being told by our boss”Hey, you’re in charge of containment.”

    I remain hopeful that our friend, the weather, will be one of the saviors. (Hopefully I am not delusional.)

    1. Weather likely won’t be a savior for this. I would recommend watching the interview I posted above.

      1. I really feel like this will be over here sooner rather than later . NCAA is playing with no fans & we have the first NBA game announcement saying no fans in attendance

        1. What is it that will make it “sooner” rather than “later?” And to be clear I hope you’re right.

          1. How many in mass have been quarantined and how many of those folks have actually had positive readings

            1. And the precautions that are being done will probably help out the situation a lot & it definitely will not make it worse . My opinion if you’re going to start canceling events do it across the board . They should have called the marathon yesterday

              1. If all above works out I think that’s why I’m thinking sooner vs later & it’s just hunch nothing more

        2. Sooner will be made possible by the moves being made now. Later would likely be if no changes were made.

          1. This is my point. You have to make Xtreme changes soon to contain a virus an yet there are many who think it’s all OVERKILL.

            1. And to your point…..many towns are not making those choices. Lots of sports, etc are still in place. In one town where there is a presumptive positive, the folks are upset because some events are being cancelled.

    2. This! And to be clear they are estimating 33-67 percent of the US population will be hit – so 100-200 million people will catch the virus – it’s just a matter of “when.” These mitigation efforts – overkill or not – is to try to ensure it’s not 100 million sick all in the same 4-8 weeks. And seriously – those at elevated risk please just isolate and sit tight. Every day we are learning more – now that we are starting to test people and accumulate data.

  27. Here in CT the CIAC has cancelled all winter sports tournaments due to coronavirus. I feel bad for these kids that they competed hard all season and can’t compete for a championship. Student athletes protested outside CIAC headquarters in Cheshire, CT today. Your seeing the NCAA Tournament play without fans so why can’t these sports teams do the same and play for a championship.

  29. Latest on Coronavirus

    USA 1,300 Cases with 38 deaths for a mortality rate of 2.9%
    MA 95 total cases (only 3 added today, which is good, but likely is meaningless)
    We shall see over the coming days/weeks.

    1. A good portion of the MA cases are from that darned bio conference. And still being confirmed as one was just announced in Belmont today

        1. I posted that above and am hoping he can focus on country, truth and not himself. Sorry but that is not political. It is simple truth

      1. They did . There was a lot of talk regarding that on Facebook today & the big Marshfield road race

  30. I saw some friends late afternoon today. They were all thinking that virus is all blown out of proportion. What I don’t think they understood is that the measures being taken today look disproportionate to the size of the current problem. However, if we were to wait 3 months to implement those same measures, the same people would say “well that’s not enough.”

    2. and they as well as ANYONE like them will be the reason this is prolonged and very likely worse.

      A parent in a middlesex town was waiting for final results. She ended up being positive. Not presumptive but positive. Meanwhile, she sent her kid to the elementary school in her town and now he has symptoms.

      My view. Fine the crap out of these people. And if you think that is strong language for me……hang on.

          1. They would be in the earliest stages. They went immediately after displaying fatigue that was unusual.

  36. Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz tested positive for coronavirus. They postponed the Jazz Thunder game and now word just came down the NBA season is suspended. For how long who knows.

  37. SSK: I think it was you, the other day, who was taking issue with EF for an international school trip.
    I was at a parents’ meeting tonight for my son’s senior class trip to Florida (which, for the moment, is still on!)
    The principal did say that superintendents across Massachusetts drafted a letter to EF today addressing the fact that the governor and the commissioner of education have declared a State of Emergency because of the threat of the virus. Because the government got involved, this may hold legal leverage to get all or partial refunds from EF and other travel companies.
    Hope this news helps you.

    1. Thank you I’ll look into it . Basically they came up with a poll of sone new locations but if you do not want that venue you are out 50% of what you paid for the trip ( which we struggled to pay ) just not right !!

  39. currently my school is on spring break, there are many students that will be coming back from other places. This has the school concerned and I got some inside info that they could cancel classes and do things online. There are talks about limiting the cruise ships and having required screening for anyone that comes by plane. If classes do become online, I am questioning if I should go home or not as I do not trust the hospitals on this island but trust the Massachusetts system but then there is also the part of me that says this is an Island and the side of the island I live on is not where the tourists go. So who knows whats gonna happen

    1. My advice would be to come to Massachusetts. QUICKLY. Wherever you are, the virus could show up tomorrow and you want to be quarantined and you also want to be near 1st class medical care.

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