Thursday Forecast

162 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
High pressure centered to the north of New England sends a light easterly air flow off the ocean today, keeping it on the cool side. Low pressure will track north of New England Friday, sending a warm front / cold front combo through the region with some wet weather. Departing low pressure and approaching high pressure means dry, breezy, and cooler weather Saturday. That high pressure area sending the cooler air in will be quite strong as it bridges across southeastern Canada, keeping it dry and turning it colder for Sunday and Monday.
TODAY: Some sunshine mainly eastern MA and RI to star, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle and light rain overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog, drizzle, and periods of light rain morning. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers early to mid afternoon. Clearing late afternoon. Highs 53-60 Merrimack Valley westward, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind SE 5-15 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early through mid afternoon shifting to W late afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Low pressure moves across the region west to east March 17 with unsettled weather, mainly in the form of rain and drizzle, but may start as mix/snow in some areas. Fair, cool March 18 as high pressure approaches. Fair, milder March 19 as high pressure slips off to the southeast. Strong cold front moves through the region March 20 and may set up a rain/mix/snow event for the end of the period as low pressure arrives with a cold high pressure area to the north. Low confidence on this at the moment but something to keep an eye on.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Additional unsettled weather around mid period. Temperature start near normal, end above normal.

162 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. P.S. (pre-script): Hey Charles. You should probably be asking your friends if you can use their email addresses in your feeble attempts at creating fake names to re-enter, instead of just using them without them knowing. It still won’t make a difference anyway, but it could save you trouble later. Just a piece of friendly advice. Have a nice day. šŸ˜‰

    To everyone else: Understanding the virus situation and the somewhat varying view points, just a reminder that even though this is a weather blog I’m letting people discuss it here because it can always help to talk about things. Just remember to keep it civil. It doesn’t need to go the way so many discussions on the net go. If you don’t agree with someone, state it calmly and move onto the next topic. So far we’ve done very well here. Keep that up please. šŸ™‚

    Weather: Kind of an easy March so far, like most of the winter. Not seeing any glaring changes as you can tell by my discussion, but still watching for a sneaky very late season winter weather event somewhere because it won’t take much to set it up to do something even for just a number of hours. That’s all you need. You can never let your guard down around here in March no matter how the rest of the winter has been.

    1. Thanks tk!

      About charles: lol

      About corona chat: thanks – know itā€™s wildly off topic from weather but as we all care for each other here itā€™s good to be able to discuss it.

      About weather: Iā€™m feeling a bit cavalier like I will start planting things early. Haha

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A few re-post from earlier this morning:

    Some Target shelves last evening as my son tried to pick up some supplies!!!

    https://imgur.com/a/iYbzifhReply

    JpDave says:
    March 12, 2020 at 6:48 AM
    For the good doctor and anyone else who wants this. Buoy sites:

    Northeast buoy page
    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Northeast.shtml

    Noaa Buoy widget for Boston Buoy
    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/widgets/station_page.php?station=44013

    Noaa Buoy widget. Allows choice of any buoy around the country and more.
    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/widgets/

    Reply

  6. Thank you TK. As always, we appreciate the hard work, stamina and your patience.

    And we should never forget that there is an intersection between the weather and any virus.

  7. Thanks Tk . Hi Charlie. With the suspension of the NBA season announced I wonder what the NHL will do . A statement will be released today I am going to a game towards the end I think .

    1. I heard a discussion on the Sports Hub this AM. They don’t have definitive information, but their guess was that the NHL will also suspend the
      season. We shall see.

      1. Maybe I think my co worker said about 15 basketball games left and I think hockey is close with 12 I think . Very curious what they do & what about playoffs . The bruins pay San Hose next week there & as of earlier this week will be played with no fans if it happens .

      2. Season suspension is the right move. They wonā€™t pack the stadiums if they donā€™t suspend. The smartest money move is to pause and wait. A lot of events will be put in a holding pattern. I think what people havenā€™t fully realized yet is that this wonā€™t be a weeks thing – this will be a months thing. Thereā€™s a reason why multiple movies including the new james bond have pushed their dates to the fall.

        1. When is Marty going to call the marathon tge day of . No way he can allow that to go on as it would go against everything they are trying to do . Regarding weather a tad nippy when I left the house Chris morning shortly after 2am

          1. I do agree. It is inevitable. It will be called off
            or postponed. MLB likely to delay the season
            start. How long? That will be a tough one.
            We shall see.

          3. Nobody wants to make the call on the marathon because it means millions of dollars to the state. The primary issue at play here from my armchair observations is that officials are hoping some magical breakthrough happens and donā€™t want to seem hasty in cancelling something that is a month out. Ultimately they will cancel because even if boston eliminated every corona case this week by some divine intervention – the marathon encompasses multiple countries that have travel restrictions in effect including our own. Most of those who compete wouldnā€™t even be able to touch down. This to me means it is effectively cancelled they just havenā€™t announced it.

        2. Meanwhile high school kids are heading to these venues for their end of season games. Iā€™m sticking with my original comment that schools will be the worst offenders

          1. The Wachusett School District has postponed all field trips and school events(i.e. concerts, plays, curriculum showcase events, etc) and community sports events that take place in the schools(local youth sports, civic organizations, etc). All MA superintendents have a conference call tomorrow morning with the MA Dept of Education and Public Health.

  8. My daughter and her dance team were scheduled to dance pre-game, as they have the last few years, at the Celtics game in the garden tomorrow night.

    Though I would never tell her, I am relieved. She was upset, but as my wife and I talked about it with her, I think she started to gain some understanding of why. We’re coming up with a little something to do tomorrow night to try to make the evening extra fun.

  14. Why is MLB going to continue playing totally meaningless Spring Training games? There canā€™t be THAT much money involved!

  15. I think the Utah Jazz player, Gobert, highlights the problem. Just think of how many people he interacted with … family, friends, teammates, team coaches and staff, opposing players , refs, airplane crew, bus driver, practice at Emerson college, hotel staff, and reporters to name a few.

          1. This is when I wish we could either fine these people or somehow make it clear it wonā€™t be tolerated

            1. I do think a lot of people, myself included, have had an attitude change towards the virus in the last 2-3 days. I know I have a completely different view of it than a couple days ago.

              1. My girls and I have always hunkered down when any of us are sick. We just donā€™t want to share the wealth. So maybe that is why we just had a plan in place. Also with Macs brother so involved in hospital disaster planning, I probably learned more earlier. It is not an easy thing to adapt to if it isnā€™t a norm. And I think you are right about people changing perspective. I give you and them tremendous credit.

  16. Bruins cancel practice / team meetings for today with more information this afternoon . I noticed the school closings incredibly increasing . Tom have you had meetings with the higher ups .

    1. Not really ……. which has me a bit perplexed.

      I have no problem with us having school as of now. No positive tests in Marshfield.

      The guidance I’m looking for is, should teachers be planning on-line lessons in case of a long closure (which I am). Do they have a plan to send all of our chrome-books home if there is an on-line component to missed days.

      I do feel like there is one reality developing out in society and another in most school’s. Like no real changes inside school. We have lunches back to back to back with 300 students in the caf, three times in a row for 25 minutes. That one has me shaking my head. I know an alternative is a difficult solution, but its an example of that one reality in society and no changes in school.

        2. Same in Sutton. Eight high schools go to Td garden this weekend. What the……

          And you know how I feel about schools.

          Daughter said if the teams go, she will keep kids home as if shows a blatant disregard for student safety.

  17. Big play starts this weekend for Spellman but itā€™s on . Will be a packed in to a not super huge auditorium

  18. Hockey East quarterfinals at BC (and will assume other HE schools) this weekend will be played without fans.

  19. Good noon to all and thanks, TK…

    Taunton River really low. Ten years ago in March, Route 44 on the Taunton/Raynham line was the Taunton River!!!!

    Quiet here in the Middleborough schools. Attendance seems to be normal. All events are still on as far as I know. Our school committee has a regularly-scheduled meeting tonight and the superintendents have a conference call tomorrow, so things could change.

  20. TK. Sincere thanks for allowing us all to share ideas. We are truly a family. No ones view is more important than anotherā€™s but underlying all of that…..we care for each other.

  21. One thing I am thankful for today is that the two foot plus blizzard that was once modeled for today disappeared. I could not imagine the state weā€™d be in with that heaped on top.

      1. Actually, I agree. Caveat here is that I’m biased in favor of snow. But, a blizzard wouldn’t be a bad thing. It may calm people down, too.

      2. Yes – but unfortunately would have hampered with getting people out of dense colleges and would have also led to massive panic shopping that would not have been good for anyone. Yes a lot of people are panic shopping but the sheer volume would have been worse.

  22. Hearing rumors regarding Boston Public . Again could be rumors. Tk I think itā€™s great that you have allowed us to share this situation here , thank you .

  23. TK thanks for letting us continue the non-weather discussion as itā€™s so impactful to all of us.

    My sonā€™s school starts spring break tomorrow but we pulled him today. Cancelled our trip to Florida – no brainer when you see the trajectory graph of Italy and realize we are at best (if we disregard the fact that with no testing we are blind as to where we really are on the graph) a few weeks behind.

    I am urging everyone to self-isolate starting now (ideally yesterday) as we all will be very glad to miss the inevitable first spike. (Made inevitable bc by not testing people are not grasping the magnitude yet – and likely wonā€™t grasp it until itā€™s too late – likely in 7-10 days or less.)

    Specifically – JpDave please stay home or quarantine from your wife.

    Matt – please come home right away.

    All estimates are running in tens of millions needing care nationally within weeks and we only have one million beds with usually 10 percent available and even less ventilators. Safest thing right now is avoiding catching it. And I personally believe that it is already everywhere.

    Please be safe everyone!!

  24. Half of Kentucky and parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri and Indiana are in the Enhanced shading for severe storms by the SPC.

  26. Small note: I keep my ear to the ground and have been watching this unfold since mid January so I tend to know the next ā€œhot ticketā€ item people panic but. Evaporated milk has seen an uptick. Used to drink the stuff when we were poor as a child. Never thought thereā€™d be a run on it but it happened in other countries first and now itā€™s slowly happening here.

  27. MamaMia, can you please cite your source that “tens of millions of people” will need hospitalization in the US in a matter of weeks? I have been following many reputable news sources and public advisories and have not heard anything remotely close to that.

    Even in China, the epicenter of the outbreak, they have 80,000 reported cases (in a country of 1.4 billion people). The prevalence of the virus in the population of China has been .00007%. And the number of new cases has been on steady decline each day. They are well past their peak now.

    Also, keep in mind – of those cases reported, the vast majority of those people present with mild to moderate flu like symptoms and do NOT require hospitalization.

    As I commented the other day, the fear, sensationalism, hysteria and panic going on right now is out of control. I think retrac put it best when he said the hysteria/panic will do us in more than the virus itself.

    Personally, I will continue to live my life as I normally do, go out to the store, go out to eat, etc. I will continue to take normal precautions and wash my hands frequently and before I eat, won’t touch my hands to my face, etc. I do all that stuff normally anyway as I am a known germ freak. What I will not be doing is quarantining myself in my home for the next two months. This is not the ebola virus and we are not under nuclear attack. Good gracious….

    The US will get through this like China has and we will get through it in short order. I am confident of that.

  28. This just in from Reuters….

    The global coronavirus pandemic could be over by June if countries mobilize to fight it, a senior Chinese medical adviser said on Thursday, as China declared the peak had passed there and new cases in Hubei fell to single digits for the first time.

    Around two-thirds of global cases of the coronavirus have been recorded in China’s central Hubei province, where the virus first emerged in December. But in recent weeks the vast majority of new cases have been outside China.
    Chinese authorities credit strict measures they have taken, including placing Hubei under near total lockdown, with preventing big outbreaks in other cities, and say other countries should learn from their efforts.
    “Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China,” said Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission. “The increase of new cases is falling.”

    2. Mark, I agree with a lot of what you said, but I also dont particularly trust China and what they say. They tried to cover up the virus early on and silence doctors who raised the initial red flags. Their biggest risk now is a reemergence from other hot spots around the world bringing it back into China. The Chinese are also more willing to submit to draconian lockdowns. You yourself just said you would continue to go about your life, which you wouldn’t have been able to do in Hubei…we will have a harder time as a society because of our accustomed freedoms

    3. Reuters is an excellent news source. No bias. After all of these years it’s far enough in my past that I can tell you I used to provide them most of their agricultural forecasts, and a fair amount of their shipping, energy, and tropical weather data as well. Did it for years. They were a great client.

    4. operative word STRICT measures, for which the US has been reticent to implement
      It WILL be worse here You can bury your
      head in the sand if you wish, but then you become part of the problem.

      1. Number of cases will increase before they start going down, I agree.

        But as far as strict measures go, you don’t think we are mobilizing? Tournaments cancelled, sports leagues cancelled, universities closed, empty airplanes, school gatherings and field trips cancelled, travel ban to Europe in effect??? These are unprecedented measures. I have never seen anything like. Not sure what else you would propose at this point?

  29. At Roche Bros, W. Roxbury.
    The store is jammed
    Toilet tissue aisle is totally empty.
    Not one sheet available.

    1. Same at Stop&Shop in Brookline. Not to mention most canned goods. I got the very last package of paper napkins.

  30. Starting Monday, I will be allowed tobwork from home for at least 30 days.
    Worried about food and supplies. That is why I am out again picking up more.

    1. My stepdaughter works at a local Walmart and she said the customers are stealing the wipes they provide to wipe down the carriages. Also, my boysā€™ dentist office is closing next week to reduce the risk of exposure and they are having trouble getting their medical supplies.

  31. Tim Kelley agrees that we need to watch the pattern later next week. PV is going to become unstable and Canada is going to get colder, while the US Southeast is above normal (as was expected). That contrast can turn volatile here in very short order.

  32. I’ve been quiet on coronavirus, but here’s my $0.02: My gut inclination is to think that this is being blown out proportion, like basically every major story in the media the past past few years. Remember when World War 3 was about to start a couple months ago? And that’s one of literally a million examples.

    However, I think it’s important to use rational logic and systematic decision making here. As a scientist, I feel obligated to respect the judgment of other scientists who are experts in things I know very little about. The medical community has said from the beginning that this would get worse, and that it could be really bad. So far they’ve been pretty spot on. Why? Because they’re the experts in their field. So if nothing else I’m happy to see that society is deferring to scientific expertise. As any meteorologist, or especially any climate scientist would tell you, that doesn’t always happen.

    So I won’t be shutting down my life either, but I respect the decisions being made to put a hold on large group gatherings. We have a responsibility to do the right thing. I do wonder if a total ban on in person school, as well as all air travel, is next.

  36. Regarding the large high pressure area coming in this weekend: ECMWF had that pretty much nailed over a week in advance. At that time, the GFS was forecasting nothing close to that.

    2. The 12z Euro has a warmer solution next weekend than the GFS but its not that far off. Boundary setting up just to our north and high pressure parked over Eastern Canada. It’s definitely starting to look like an interesting setup.

      I knew when I said yesterday that I think we might be done with winter that something would end up happening. Should have used this reverse psychology much sooner!

  38. Everett basically closing shop. If only others show the same common sense

    https://imgur.com/a/fzTCccT

    A bunch of schools have now closed foe at least a couple of weeks. Two kids in one grands class….not Sutton….went home sick. Any parent who sends a kid who has to be sent home should be put in the stocks

    1. I have been on phone with my Merrill guy. Iā€™m knocking on wood LOUDLY as I say this but still positive for year. But Iā€™m 70 and conservatively invested maybe at 10% gain yearly rather than my younger days

      1. Best advice is not to panic and think longer term. I do think the stock market will recover when this scare passes but probably not going to get back to the levels it was at for some time.

        Really feel bad for people like yourself at or nearing retirement. The timing of this stinks. Good you are in conservative investments which should lessen the impact.

        1. Absolutely….we put a small amount into,the small percent of stocks I already have and are performing well.

  40. TK – Regarding NBA practices, I saw the information watching ESPN at a bar/restaurant.

    I donā€™t understand why I always have to mention a specific ā€œsourceā€ every time I post updated info here.

    1. I don’t ask you to do that all the time. I just wanted to know where you heard it, because I had not and I was going to look into it a bit. It is good to cite sources though in case anybody reading wants to look at it themselves.

      1. Good point. I usually try to site source, but I am likely guilty
        of forgetting from time to time. I generally try to provide
        a link to the source.

        1. I will always cite a source or say I am not positive. Just makes sense to me. But then call be foolish…. itā€™s possible I just rolled my eyes.

  41. Just spoke with my Daughter who is a high school teacher in Medfield.
    She told my wife and I that the school is closed tomorrow, but teachers
    must be in attendance as the Governor is having a conference call with ALL
    school superintendents state wide. The feeling is that the State will CLOSE
    ALL schools for at least 2 weeks. That needs to be done. We shall see
    if that is actually what transpires tomorrow.

    This gets worse by the second.

    I sincerely hope that this report is false because if true we will have BioGen x 2 or 3.

    https://www.boston25news.com/news/25-investigates-2-test-positive-covid-19-after-attending-party-expo-somerville/2FVUDNHQ5VAT3K22LARFOOBM5U/

      1. She was told that the Governor is having a conference call
        with all supers tomorrow at 8:30 AM. We shall see.

          1. Iā€™m not saying that at all . I though the governor said supers were meeting today & will be making a statement tomorrow.

    2. Also, 3 students at the high school where she teaches have been
      tested for Covid-19 and are awaiting results. And so it goes…

        1. Thanks John. They weren’t in any of the classes she taught, so at least that is good.
          Also, doesn’t mean they have it, but I would say it is
          probably likely though.

    1. Looks to be this way everywhere. I had an order with peapod pickup. Just some dry powdered milk, almond milk and evaporated milk. They called me and said they are too overwhelmed and canā€™t attend to peapod pickup.

  44. Boston’s precipitation deficit month-to-date: -1.40 inch.
    Boston’s precipitation deficit year-to-date: -3.32 inches.

          1. Awesome. I Love the sound of peepers. Very
            comforting to me, but that may be because I grew
            up well outside Boston and heard them nightly.

  45. I love peepers too. I remember hearing them from time to time in March. 2012 was the last time I heard them very early. I’ve heard them once so far this year.

  46. 5.24″ of precipitation in Norton for the first 72 days of 2020. Only 0.55″ in March. Hopefully a healthy rainfall tomorrow will put a small dent in things.

  47. Just heard Coventry BOE voted to cancel school at tonightā€™s meeting. Not sure yet when it takes effect or for how long. Schools are dropping like flies around here….Hartford, West Hartford, Ellington, South Windsor, Stamford all closed and thatā€™s just to name a few.

  48. Actually, Philip, to further my point above, usually you DO cite sources. You often say “according to …” and then say what they said. I simply asked because I was curious and going to read more.

    I think I’ve been very generous here letting the weather take a back seat to this, so people can chat about it, and state their opinions, etc. …

    While I am sure not everybody here has been in total agreement about the information, I also feel that we’ve kept it civil and that’s all I wanted. Yes, this is a weather blog, but there are bigger things once in a while. Hey, even the Pilgrims Common House became a hospital during the harsh winter of 1621. It had a greater purpose at that time. And for the moment, this forum can serve a little bit of a different purpose as well. You are not being singled out. It was just a specific piece of information I wanted so I could learn more. It could have been anybody that posted something, and had I wanted to know where they got it, I’d have asked them as well.

    Anyway, carry on everyone…

    1. Yes. No positive cases, done out of abundance of caution. 3 days to clean schools and monitor developments. Fluid situation, will update as info becomes available.

  50. I have a lot of peepers around my house living in a wetland area, I love hearing that sound it lets me know that warmer days are right around the corner. I have yet to hear them this year though. Looking forward to hearing them soon!

    1. I have not heard them but a few in town have. There is nothing like hearing them the first time

  52. I’m approaching 51.

    I remember where I was for the Challenger explosion, certainly 9/11. I’m sure there are those other big life events I’m forgetting as I type.

    But, the last 24 hrs in particular have to be the most surreal I’ve seen and that’s with a six hour escape of normalcy during school today.

    It’s happened so fast, even though I understand the story has been developing for 2+ months.

    There’s a lot of positive that can come from this. Seeing Kevin Love donate 100,000 to game workers of the Cleveland Cavs and now I believe the cavs organization has said they will pay all those workers for missed games.

    Humanity tends to rise to the occasion in out of ordinary times. I think we’re going to see a lot of compassion for fellow people.

    Another good thing is hopefully the health system will assess itself after this ends and be better prepared for a future pandemic, especially a more quick and plentiful initial testing.

    I have hope.

    1. Me too. A local laundromat posted that he has lots of TP and it is for anyone who needs at no charge. He also collects jackets etc for people in winter. Iā€™m calling tomorrow to donate

    2. Tom,

      I’m a few months from 73. I can remember the EEE (“Sleeping Sickness) of
      the 50s, the Cuban Missle Crisis of the early 60s (we thought it was the end
      of the world!), so yup I hear you.

      This may end up the worst of the lot for sure. Time will tell.
      Perhaps some of these drastic moves will at least slow down the spread
      and help us get a handle on it.

      Up to these moves, the biggest spread of the virus was Schools and
      the work place. Now what can/will be done about the workplace??

      As soon as an office has an employee test positive, it will be closed down.
      Do we wait, or close em down now?

      I have to attend a special operations meeting tomorrow to discuss
      how we will operate assuming we are forced to close the office.

      Fun times.

  55. It is a weird feeling not to be able to watch a sporting event. Sports is a big part of my life especially this time of year with March Madness seeing the upsets and buzzer beaters. I hope sports come back soon. When it does I will be rooting for my teams hoping the Rangers sneak into the playoffs, watching the Yankees go for championship 28, and maybe sometime this century the Knicks will be watchable.

  56. Tom, Captain. Anyone in school system. You may already know this but just in case

    Some concern canceling schools is kids who depend on food at school. Some areas where schools are closed at using buses and school vans to deliver food to kids

  57. I hope the Masters is being played Easter weekend Vicki. The PGA tour just cancelled The Players Championship and tournaments all the way to the tournament before The Masters.

    1. Yikes. Earlier daughter said Masters was still on. But as you know things change quickly. And I do not have a citation

  58. Your right things are changing so quickly. I hope beginning of April NBA NHL and MLB are back and The Masters will be played. I do feel bad for the college kids and the high school kids in CT who won’t be able to compete for a championship due to the coronavirus. It is shame the hard work all those athletes put and the season ends like this.

  59. Assuming we get no more snow…the snow deficit will be 28.7ā€.

    15.1ā€ – 43.8ā€ = -28.7ā€ (Logan)

    2. Yes, the most accurate way to do that is “to-date”, and not to assume we’ll have no more snow. Logan can record measurable snow through April.

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