Friday Forecast

164 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
Low pressure races eastward passing north of our area today, its warm front bringing a round of rain showers and some downpours through midday, its cold front possibly bringing an additional rain shower west to east around mid afternoon before we clear out late in the day. Weekend and Monday: Dry and turning colder as Canadian high pressure approaches and moves in. By Tuesday, this high will retreat to the east making way for the next low pressure area to arrive from the west, bringing weather typical of Ireland in time for St. Patrick’s Day, cool and unsettled.
TODAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers, a few heavy, through midday. Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible through mid afternoon. Clearing west to east late-day. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW 10-20 MPH then W late day, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sunniest early then lots of clouds . Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds evening then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain, may begin as snow in a few areas. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
Dry weather returns the middle of next week with a quick chill-off then a warm-up. Boundary between warm air south and increasing cold air in Canada sets up nearby in the March 20-22 time frame when we become vulnerable to additional unsettled weather but with a temperature profile in the region that is indeterminate at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Additional unsettled weather around early to mid period. Temperature start near normal, end above normal.

164 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. I Echo that comment . I can’t wait to hear the announcement by the governor today regarding the school closings . He needs to shut them down for at least two weeks & than review where we are at after that . I think leaving this to the discretion of schools is not right stand up Mr Governor and make the call it’s your job . I kept Joe home today & we will be laying very low this weekend as my wife with here immunity so low she absolutely can’t get sick . Thank you Tk for everything have a Good day everyone

    1. I work for the state and we interact with the public a lot. Business has only slowed down a little bit so even if he closes all schools unless he mandates state workers to stay home too – it’s just a hub for illness spreading. Other states who don’t have it as bad as us yet will look to how we react. The fact this comes during an election year makes their trepidation onlu that much more palpable.

      1. Son works for state also. He is considered essential but I absolutely agree with you. Stay healthy, Dr!

  3. I try not to be overly critical of media and things that I hear on radio and TV but two things in the last 24 hours…

    On the way to work I heard the radio anchor say that today’s passing rain showers would ruin our day. Whatever happened to just reporting the weather? or pointing out the fact that the passing rain showers today will help reduce pollen levels or maybe put a tiny little dent in our rainfall deficit? It’s not really ruining anything.

    The other thing was somebody that was interviewed yesterday and this being put on the air: well I can’t get corona virus because I use antibacterial soap.

    1. I find radio these days the absolute worst source for current weather updates. This morning the announcer on WBZ radio reported steady rain in Boston but the rain had been over probably a good hour ago.

      2. You are correct.

        These are showers, not steady rain.

        There is actually a meteorological difference.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I actually found some tp this morning at a local Walgreens next to my office. 🙂 🙂

    The Rain feels good. Only wish it could WASH away covid-19.

  6. I’m seeing more & more chatter regarding the announcement later I’m hearing they are thinking about 14-30 days I remind you this is all rumors as of now .

    1. Silver Lake closed today and notified parents at 5:00 am this morning. However the email stated they will resume on Monday.

  7. Thanks TK !

    A couple times overnight, my mind was busy overnight thinking about an email to parents/students about suggested ways to continue to put some time into the current topic we are working on, percents and all the topics we have worked on. With today’s technology and the math websites we use, students don’t have to be without learning if we aren’t all physically in the school building.

    Thus, I’m very interested to see what the state will say today.

    1. They are so blessed to have you, Tom.

      We are very interested in this. My oldest is in sixth grade and has a math teacher who reminds me a lot of you. We are trying to think of things for him to do when home.

      1. Thanks Vicki, the good news is many of my colleagues are thinking the same way and I’m sure the vast majority of teachers are.

  9. Thank you, TK

    36 years ago today we had a foot-isn of snow. Then to be followed on the 28/29 with a doozie that has a good portion of our area powerless for several days.

    Happy Birthday to son, Scott <3

  10. Good morning, y’all.
    I, too, want to thank you, TK, for “bending the rules” a bit here this week.

    No school in Middleborough for the day. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we all extend that to March 27.

    I have to agree, Tom, that this week has been surreal. It reminds me of the days following 9-11, but not as intense. Teaching and interacting with the kids have been a wonderful distraction. I feel sorry for our students with severe anxiety. This has not been easy for them.

    Sports is usually a good distraction for this, but we have lost even this!

    Mrs. Fantastic and I watched a replay for the dog show last night and made brackets to pick the winner! 🙂

    Weather: Getting dark here with moderate rain on the doorstep.

    Using my unexpected free time for morning errands.

    Stay well, y’all, and thanks again for everything, TK. I hope your Mom is hanging in there!!!!

    1. With a deep but proud sighhhhh…how blessed are your students and Toms.

      My oldest grand is struggling. It didn’t help that for some odd reason his class watched CNN coverage of CV19 last week. I say this with tremendous respect for our schools. Just one hiccup and I am sure with the best intentions.

      I like the dog show idea.

    2. My mom is kicking ass. They asked her after yesterday’s treatment if she needed to take some days off and she said “no way!”

      So far, no side effects.

      2. She is one amazing powerhouse. I had the pleasure to meet your mom once, but feel as if I’ve known her a lifetime.

  14. TK – many thanks for all you do on the weather front and for allowing all of this dialog regarding our current state of affairs.

    And your mom is one heck of an amazing woman! Always in my prayers.

  16. Joe is getting google classroom invites now I suspect the school is getting ready for the announcement & knows what that will be . Stay tuned

  17. Interesting ….. if I’m reading correctly, Boston Marathon rescheduled to September 14th.

    26.2 miles in what could be a 70F dewpoint day. In other words, climatologically, it’s much more likely to have a warm and somewhat humid day prior to mid September. From a weather perspective, I wonder if they should consider a month later???

    1. Columbus Day Weekend would have been much better. Plus, it’s already a “holiday” anyway so it wouldn’t have to be officially “declared” as such.

  19. Well I found another sort of connection between the weather and the virus. Previously I mentioned the heat and sunlight could slow down the virus if not end it altogether. This has happened with other corona viruses, but certainly no guarantee with COVID-19.

    So today I wanted to find out if chaos theory was being used to predict the virus spread in sort of the same way it’s applied to weather modeling/forecasting. I went to Google and found that chaos theory is being used in Italy, Washington State, and on the Diamond Princess to “predict” the spread of COVID-19. (Or maybe the manner in which it spreads.) I understand very little about chaos theory.

    This reminds me that someday we should discuss the Butterfly Effect. A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can have an effect on the weather in Central Park.

    1. Stock market was soaring with Dow up over 1000 points at the opening bell and now is plummeting again with that news and will soon be back in the red I’m sure.

  21. Yesterday I forwarded an article from Reuters regarding the number of new coronavirus cases in China which has been plummeting. Today, you can add South Korea to the list. For the first time, the recoveries (177) outweigh the number of new cases (11o) reported….

    https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-coronavirus-recoveries-outnumber-new-cases-1492180

    As a point of reference, the first coronavirus case in South Korea was January 20, same time the US reported its first case.

    1. Thank you for sharing. I tried to read but it just shocks me. I’ll try again later.

      250 or more. Are they NUTS. We are are more focused on sports events than we are on our children….and their educators. We are truly a ship of fools.

    2. YIKES. Unless I misread, this is PATHETIC. IMHO, this is NOT containment at all. If anything, this ensures the spread.

      1. Listen to baker if you really want to be discouraged.

        Last I checked there are more than 250 in schools.

  23. I found this article very interesting on the current flu epidemic in CT….

    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/health/three-additional-flu-deaths-reported-in-connecticut/2237555/

    3 more flu deaths in CT yesterday
    68 deaths on the season
    11,778 people have tested positive for the flu this season
    2,632 required hospitalization

    Conversely, there have been 5 confirmed coronavirus cases in the State and no deaths.

    I guess the good thing to come out of this scare is that all the closures and extensive cleaning in public places going on right now will help clear up the numerous strains of flu going around right now which pose a far greater risk to the general population than COVID-19.

    The ironic thing is that flu statistics like what I posted above occur pretty much every year and garner absolutely no attention or concern.

      1. True & that’s what the hospitals are saying . Years of training has gone into these types of situations and no one knows that unless your on the front lines

  24. Wow Leadership is dropping the ball not ordering schools . Governor & mayor big time disappointment

    1. Call both please. I did and will again. Baker said we have to contain so we don’t overwhelm the system. Does he listen to himself.

      1. I can’t believe he talked about keeping it under a certain number he is embarrassing himself . I am beyond confused

        1. I have always supported Baker. Not so much now. There are more than 250 in schools. And he has an attitude…he did the other day in his presser too.

          And he says feds are not moving quickly enough.

  25. The hysteria going on right now will have you believe that CV is a greater risk than the flu but the numbers do not lie.

    From the CDC……

    “CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.”

    That article you posted Vicki says the spread of flu cannot be stopped. Why? Because it is already so much more widespread than the CV is.

    Read this article….

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/01/coronavirus-flu-deadlier-more-widespread-than-wuhan-china-virus/4632508002/

    22,000 flu deaths in the US this year vs. 41 coronavirus.

    vs.

    36,000,000 flu cases vs. 1,600 CV cases in the US.

    I do not argue that the death rate with CV is a percentage or two higher but the prevalence of flu is also dramatically higher than the CV. Your chance of getting the flu right now is exponentially higher than CV and that is a fact. The numbers don’t lie.

    This is simple math folks….

    Flu deaths divided by population >>> CV deaths by population

    Not even close.

    Tom, can you help me here ??? 🙂

    1. See old saltys post. Covid is far higher than flu. We have only just begun here. So it cannot be compared. Yet.

      And please don’t say we are showing signs of hysteria. I think we are all trying to be polite

      1. I did not mean to imply you, Dave, and some others were showing signs of hysteria. I’m sorry if I did. Talking more in terms of the general public ravaging the stores, media, social media, etc…

        We are having a good civil discussion here 🙂

        1. Agree but I at first thought this was overblown & I don’t now . Now because my governor doesn’t have the balls to shut schools down for a couple of weeks after preaching all week to distance yourself, no big crowds etc . Now as a husband who’s wife has a chronic disease which has been in flare up for months ( oh & just a heart condition ) now have to make a decision on school because he’s a coward & Cant do it . By the way did I mention that Joseph has a heart condition as well . Folks on here now must know I’m beyond mad because I’m not usually like this . I just am beyond frustrated right now .

          1. I can totally understand being concerned and frustrated if you have family members with pre-existing medical conditions. Take sensible precautions and be careful. My only advice is not to panic. Bottom line is that statistically your risk is very low and in the worse case, if one of you were to get it, the odds are still majorly in your favor that you will be fine.

            1. I’m not concerned for me it’s my family . I’d take a bullet to protect them . I’m stepping out for the rest of the day not because of anything here I’m just having a bad day today . Have a good rest of your Friday

  26. No surprise NASCAR and INDY racing leagues calling off their races. They were suppose to race with no fans.

  28. Mark, it’s a difficult comparison. Wouldn’t quite call it apples to oranges, but it’s closer to that than apples to apples.

    Flu causes between 15,000 and 65,000 deaths every year. Globally, the figure approaches 1 million. But, the case fatality rate (0.13%) is much lower than Covid-19 (anywhere between 2.3% and 4%, . depending on data source).

    One things I do not like seeing in the media is the scaremongering (unintentional, perhaps, though maybe aimed at clicks). Headlines that say the U.S. could see 1 million deaths from Covid-19 are scaremongering, in my view. The data do not support this assertion at this time. Worldwide cases are growing, but the growth factor still hovers just above 1. I believe there are 135,000 cases worldwide, and 4,500 deaths. China has beaten back the virus, as has South Korea for the most part. New cases each day in both countries number in the teens. Italy and Iran have been heavily impacted, but both countries have instituted lockdowns. I expect numbers of new cases there to begin to come down soon. Numbers are increasing elsewhere in Europe and the U.S., but measures are being taken and I expect the increases in new cases to decline within 10-14 days. Will there be hundreds of deaths in the U.S.? Yes. Thousands? Definite possibility. Tens of thousands? Unlikely. Hundreds of thousands? I do not expect that, even worldwide. Caveat here is the developing world. If it impacts them – and it hasn’t thus far – I would expect the numbers of deaths there to be catastrophic.

    1. Pretty much agree on all points Joshua. I don’t argue the death rate isn’t higher with CV, but it is still infinitesimal and when you factor in how much more prevalent the basic flu is this year (and pretty much every year), your chances of getting seriously ill or dying from the flu are greater.

      It’s pretty evident that it really bothers me to see all the irrational fear and hysteria going on right now, the scare tactics, and the misinformation going around on social media. The risk to the general public remains very low, and if you were you to get sick from it, chances are very, very high that you are going to experience basic flu conditions (fever, chills, cough) and recover just fine.

    2. Re numbers of deaths and cases one can load this site https://covid19.fyi/#/

      But another thing to remember is this is the amount of cases reported. Lack of tests means there are thousands and thousands more that aren’t aware they have it or think they do but can’t get tested.

      2. Or…they are not getting tested because their symptoms are very mild and not problematic.

        Thank you for that link….that is a great site.

        1. I covered that in the “aren’t aware they have it” line. but yes it’s comprensive and you can order it just by the US.

  29. 12z GFS has trended north/warmer with the threat late next week. Mostly rain with a touch of frozen on the back side Saturday AM.

  30. Mark, I agree that the chances of someone getting influenza and dying are much greater than getting Covid-19 and dying. However, the case fatality rate does matter. If you get influenza it’s very unlikely you’ll die. On the other hand, if you get Covid-19 there’s at least a 1 in 50 chance you’ll die (setting aside age-related differences, as well as differences in immune-compromised populations).

    My issue with the media coverage of Covid-19 is that it’s so non-stop and fearmongering. There are many public health issues that hardly get mentioned, or are pushed aside in favor of more wall-to-wall coverage of Covid-19. Influenza is one. Opioids another. Suicide another. It’s also pretty much guaranteed that this weekend there will be MANY more traffic-related fatalities (some involving alcohol) than deaths from Covid-19. These may be mentioned in passing in the local news. But, my guess is the news will feature much more prominently each and every Covid-related death.

    Control is a factor. We all feel powerless when faced with a contagion like the coronavirus. Even when we do all the necessary precautions we still may get it. But, I would argue that we’re almost equally powerless in the face of the other public health issues I mentioned. That includes traffic deaths. Most people who die in traffic accidents were not drunk. They were hit by someone who was.

    1. Complete agree.

      And :re traffic deaths, there is one every 13 minutes in the US. We have a 1 in 8,000 chance of dying every time we jump into our car.

  31. Is Governor Baker waiving the 180 school day due to coronavirus with schools closing. Yesterday in CT Governor Lamont waived the 180 school day and a number of schools starting closing some until further notice.

    1. Baker did waive and school can not go longer than june30. Baker also excused absences. I’m thinking if schools do not close here that my grands will be home.

  32. As for closing all schools, I saw an interview on the tv news earlier with Mayor Walsh and he mentioned that closing all BPS would be very difficult (iirc his exact words). If I understand correctly, it is mostly due to the fact that many school kids get two of their daily meals from school breakfast/lunch programs and if all schools were to close then they would miss out on those meals for the day with most parents having to work.

    I don’t know if it’s the main reason but it’s at least one I have heard.

    1. Many areas around the country are using school buses and vans to deliver the meals to those kids. As you may be able to tell. I consider that either laziness or BS.

      1. I contacted the Governor’s office Vicki and suggest anyone else does the same if you disagree with the decision not made.

      2. That’s an interesting idea Vicki. Probably the Mayor or other Boston official never thought of it. Of course I bet that he would come up with a gazillion other reasons why that would be “difficult” as well.

  33. NYC doesn’t want to close schools for the reason you mentioned Philip due to the free meals kids get.

  34. As we have learned during the whirlwind of the last 36 hrs, schools that are slated to open Monday may be facing new info by Monday morning. I do believe that any school or school systems that do open would immediately close if there’s any presumptive positive associated with anyone who attends the school or with a contact of anyone who attends the school. So, agree or disagree with today’s decision, I think things will work themselves out for a positive decision towards a given area.

    Mark, the math. I personally don’t think we can do the math on Corona, because we really don’t know how many people have it and we don’t know if more folks have died from it than they know.

    The thing that brought me around was the flattening the curve idea and hospital idea. So, we have more than 300,000,000 people in the country. If 10% are infected at the same time, that’s 30,000,000 people and a 1% death rate would be 3,000,000 deaths. That’s the math I’ve switched to. Say 15% of the population is older than 80. That’s 45,000,000 people and then if you have 10% of that group getting it, that’s 4.5 million and then a conservative 5% death rate for 80 and up would be closing in on 250,000 people.

    2. Thanks Tom. I think despite the governor’s incompetence…in this instance …..schools are staring to take matters into their own hands. Or I pray.

  36. Marshfield now closed for 2 weeks.

    Based on superintendents message, I get the idea many south shore districts are doing the same, the language indicates it was a collaborative decision amongst many south shore principals.

  40. Tom, I believe your math makes a number of implausible assumptions. Based on the data from China, the original epicenter of Covid-19, we’re not seeing the math bear out. Provided strict measures are taken – granted, these are draconian in China – it’s clear that transmissions and new cases can be curbed quite rapidly (within 2-4 weeks). While China is still experiencing the aftermath, new cases are dwindling to between 10-20 a day, and deaths are around 10 per day. Not indicative of Covid-19 causing hundreds of thousands, let alone millions of deaths. I expect new cases will begin to decline in Italy and Iran soon – within 2 weeks.

    I believe the world will have to adopt a lockdown approach for at least 1 month if not longer. This has been successfully applied in Wuhan and the rest of China, as well as South Korea. Even blunting the viral transmission by 50% will have a positive impact within a few weeks. But, I think achieving a decline in viral transmission of 90% is possible if consistent, systematic measures are adopted.

    What this all means is that we will all have to radically change our lives in the coming months. Social distancing will be the norm until June at least. But, I’m convinced this will slow and ultimately stop the spread. Furthermore, it appears (and I work in this area; am writing a peer-reviewed paper on it this week) that 3 existing treatments used for HIV and malaria patients may be effective to treat severe cases of Covid-19. These treatments will be in use soon, much sooner than vaccines.

    1. Agreed, I was just taking the reasonable rounded number of Americans and showing that only 10% and then 1% of that number is 300,000.

      It’s the large numbers of world population that increase the concern. Even a small, small percentage of a very large number can translate to a very large number and I think that’s the worry. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  41. Great Lakes ice cover as of yesterday 7.6%. Maybe a record low ice cover for this time of year?

  42. Joshua, again I agree with your post above.

    3176 attributable deaths in China for a country of 1.4 billion with one of the highest densities of people in the world.

    That represents a mortality rate of 0.00000226%

    Granted there will be some more deaths still to occur there but the number of new cases each day is plummeting.

    There would have to be a hell of a lot of unreported or un-attributable deaths there and elsewhere around the world to reach the doomsday scenarios I have seen of tens of thousands of people in the US dying. The numbers around the world from countries already on the mend simply aren’t supporting it.

    1. Some more math for you and I promise this will be my last post on this topic today….

      27 of the 41 deaths in the US have occurred in King County, WA, most of them in that nursing home who were sick people in their 70’s, 80’s and 90’s.

      If you extract the flare up in that nursing home, US death toll is 14 and the death rate is 14/1805 or 0.7% which is exactly the rate experienced in South Korea. Well below the WHO estimate.

      I too expect that there are many undetected cases because people are experiencing very mild or benign conditions, making this death rate even lower than that.

  43. Non-weather: The only thing I really want to speak to at the moment is for the most part I’m in agreement with the moves being made. Maybe a few are a little over the top but I’d rather see over-caution than under. Time will tell and we’ll learn lessons that hopefully we don’t need to use anytime soon. Schools… I get it, difficult to do with a bigger city, but I think if they are going to shut everything else down the schools should be included for now. Woburn and about a half dozen other towns conducted a conference call among all their superintendents yesterday and came up with the plan of an early release today in which the students attended (optionally) to get “set-up” for the break, work packets etc., and now there will be a 2 week break with the attempt of keeping them busy enough so as not to have to make up that much work when they get back. The 2 week is tentative and will be re-evaluated going forward, with the hopes that’s all they need. The town of Reading did not participate in this and today the high school students and teachers walked out on their own (in protest basically) but it was supervised. But then the superintended had to play catch-up. A lot of the parents were not notified. So they dug themselves a bit of a hole and we’ll see how they get out of that. Otherwise, I think for the most part we’ve seen positive things and generally good decisions. It is disappointing to see some people hoarding things they are not going to use, leaving others that could use it without. Baby wipes, for one example, and some things that could benefit the elderly, for another example. You don’t need 5 bottles of the same cleaning agent and a dozen bottles of hand sanitizer to get through this. That part was disappointing, but sadly not surprising. And I’ll end on a positive note by again thanking you all for keeping it civil here. That is very much appreciated.

    Weather: I’ll get back to you. Busy day and I need to give myself a chance to look over the 12z stuff. 😉

    1. Great post TK. Blackstone valley schools just closed two weeks. Others are doing the same. Very interfering re reading. Good for them

    2. Thank you TK. The hoarding is insane. Really wish I wasn’t so low on TP right now 🙁

      Just got the official notification that Coventry schools are closed next two weeks as well starting Monday.

      1. I agree re hoarding. I have some doubts. One store my daughter went to said no paper towels. Sams store notified me yesterday that my normal subscription for same item shipped on time. Some are using it to Jack prices which I find repulsive.

        That said…..many are buying for relatives who cannot go into stores…like myself and others on here.

        So maybe a combination.

    2. Exactly and why when folks say measures are extreme they are sadly incorrect. Thank you, Joshua.

      And we are far from showing we as a nation will do what we should.

      One example of too many. One grandsons school has a presumptive and did NOTHING until it was confirmed and then WAITED until the close of school today.

      This is not MA

  45. Ok now to the weather…

    My forecast above pretty much stands as is, since the parts that are uncertain I’m still uncertain about. Not going to make anything up if I don’t know what’s really going to happen, and this is one of those times I will just say “I’m not sure, I don’t have a strong feel for it…” .. at least beyond the 5 day period. Pretty confident through day 5 right now.

    In the much shorter term, thin squall line of rain showers traversing the region now, along the cold front. I’m running a time lapse on this from my 3rd floor window. If it doesn’t get confused on focus and ruin it (I need a better set-up for future ones) it’ll be cool to see. I’ll let it run until around sunset though and get a nice long one to check out. Fingers crossed it comes out good.

        1. It feels like it this afternoon. A bit of a mug in the air.

          Wind picked up and we had a few raindrops but it was lovely to sit out.

  47. Thank you, TK. I’ve forgotten to say that. My apologies. I do care about the weather, a lot. And you make following the weather so much more interesting. I’m hoping against hope for a brief return to winter next week. Probably won’t happen, but you never know.

    On the coronavirus crisis, President Trump did a much, much better job this afternoon. He focused on the public health crisis rather than the economy (still wish he would not include Kudlow and Mnuchin on the task force – they’re not public health officials). He was flanked by highly competent CDCers, CMSers, and HHSers. I have a lot of respect for several of these officials. If the public health crisis gets solved, which it will, the economy may follow suit. I have doubts about the economy that have nothing to do with the virus, as I believe that structurally the U.S. economy is in trouble and has been for a long time. But, that’s a whole different topic.

    2. Thanks again Joshua. And I agree re economy. Trump took some good steps. But he was exposed Saturday….he is doing what no one should do. Pence also. One step forward and …..

  49. Not to be lost in everything, but today is the anniversary of Superstorm 1993. Still, the most impressive synoptic scale low pressure area I have ever seen impacting the US. Nothing else comes close in my opinion. The only storm that brought tornadoes to Florida, flattened sugarcane in Cuba, caused 2 feet of snow in parts of North Carolina, and a major snow/mix storm right up the East Coast including a major snowstorm in Quebec, all in basically under 30 hours. Not to mention the tremendously low pressure. I’ve never seen a cyclone impact that much real estate simultaneously. The storm was born of a rare phasing of 3 jet streams (subtropical, polar, and a secondary Pacific jet located in between the 2 main streams. Not something we see often, at all.

    1. Me neither, that was a memorable storm and probably tied for first with Nemo for me. We had 25″ of snow in Amsterdam NY and much higher drifts. My father brought his bucket loader in to clear our driveway and the resultant snow banks were 8 feet high.

      I also recall that this storm was forecast extremely well, 7+ days in advance which is saying a lot given the models we had at the time.

    2. Yep son who sadly will not have a bday celebration this weekend since they are quarantined said that’s ok as he recalls no bday at the age of nine 🙂 🙂

      But it is also anniversary of a good sized storm in 1984

  50. This was the first big snowstorm in my life that I could remember. I was 9 years old at the time. The storm hit on a Saturday and my bowling league was cancelled. The snow came up to my knee caps. I remember during the middle of that week Geoff Fox a former meteorologist here in CT said the Big Kahuna is coming and Saturday and it sure did.

  52. Boston’s mayor whose bravado was unacceptable has now closed Boston schools till APRIL 27. He and the governor took an egg bath today

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I didn’t think that would last 48 hrs to Monday morning.

      April 27th, wow …… there’s no right or wrong date, just a long, long time

      1. There were a number of BPS students interviewed and were not happy with going to school with this virus over our heads. I don’t believe they were trying to get out of school, they seemed very concerned.

        The Mayor was really determined to keep the schools open. Good that he finally backed down.

            1. Does anyone know what kids who count on school meals do in summer or other school breaks? I wonder if that is a a solution

              But I also wonder why we don’t have a plan in place for these youngsters

    1. Can our response reach the level of China’s ?

      Examples such as building a large hospital in days and completely shutting the Country down for weeks. So far, we are not close and the clock is ticking.

        1. So true. It’s going to be interesting, 3-4 weeks from now, to see what kind of curve developed and how steep (very steep, hopefully) the fall off is in daily new cases.

          1. I saw Rachel Maddow interview Dr David Ho (I hope I have his name right) this evening on her show. He evidently is a brilliant expert on these viruses and helped create the drugs we have now for HIV.

            He had charts for China and the state of NY for daily infections. If I understood him correctly, he said the infections showing today relate to being infected about a week ago and that what’s happening today will show up in testing a week from now. He also showed how New York States daily new infections are on a sharp rise and his chart had a similar pattern to the chart for China right before they started to experience thousands of new cases per day.

  54. I guess after watching that interview and taking into account the lack of testing to know where the virus is, I’m a bit worried in what we’re going to see for number rise over the next 7-10 days.

    There’s still too much interaction amongst people, even as all these cancellations have occurred. How many people are walking around undiagnosed? You take for example any supermarket around the Country. Lots and lots of people in them yesterday and today. I’d have to wager that unknowing but infected person(s) had to be in some of those supermarkets at some points.

    Potential is there for exponential growth in terms of new cases.

    1. The most serious problem is the folks who think this is nothing. And if they take the president at face value….well, I get it. How could he stand in front of cameras having been exposed less than a week ago with so many practically on top of him. How could those top ranking officials and CEOs etc shake his hand. What kind of example is this setting

  55. re: Coronavirus

    This latest graph of US cases over time really expresses my concern.

    https://imgur.com/a/KoanJqh

    Yes, we are finally taking some positive steps to combat this virus and that is a good thing, but were the steps implemented too late. We’ll know soon enough.

    signed
    hysterical Dave

  56. On the weather front, here are the March anomalies thru 3/13

    Logan: +8.0F, -1.36 inches precip
    Providence: +8.6F, -1.17 inches
    Hartford: +9.9F, -0.22 inches
    Worcester: +10.3F, -0.87 inches

    Wonder if a change though is coming or at least a small pattern change. Within the last few days, after Barrow and northern AK being -20F or more below zero, a tremendous surge of warm air accompanied by 40-60 mph winds covered northern AK. Temps rose nearly 50F to close to 30F and so temporarily, a decent ridge has returned to that part of the hemisphere.

    1. You know, at this point, I don’t even want to see any Winter weather. I am
      in full-blown Spring mode. 🙂
      Which is exactly why it will get cold and probably snow as well.

  58. I looked at the Euro and GFS. Although there may be some subtle signs, nothing
    earth shaddering appears as of now (again from what these eyes can see).

    1. Indeed !

      I do think this 2-3 day surge of chill across the northern tier is in response to the upstream ridge in Alaska.

      Climo/sun angle will modify everything anyway.

      GFS hinting blocking long term, EURO at day 10 looks like pattern reverts back with strong polar vortex and majority of the cold air confined to the arctic.

  59. I noticed during yesterday’s outdoor White House conference, a couple trees in the background were in full bloom. I think it reached around 75F in DC yesterday.

    I think I saw a few days ago, I apologize I don’t remember where, that things budding are running a couple weeks ahead of schedule to our south.

    1. Cherry blossoms have been out for a while in DC. 2-3 weeks early, perhaps more.

      I also noticed flowering trees behind Mnuchin during an interview on a street in DC.

      By the way, along the banks of the Esplanade Lagoon trees are beginning to flower. And, on Beacon Street and Commonwealth Avenue magnolia’s are coming out gradually.

      Wow, this winter was a dud.

      On coronavirus, the UK reported more than 200 new cases in 1 day. Surely, the travel ban will include the UK soon. Logically, it would have to. [I do know that logic isn’t always the operative word when it comes to actions by this Administration] Then, I’ll really feel cut off from my daughter.

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