Thursday Forecast

151 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Several significant changes will take place during the next several days, from chilly and unsettled today, to much warmer on Friday, to turning colder but dry over the weekend. And don’t look now, but we may even need to track a bit of a winter storm by the end of this period as cold air will be in place and low pressure will be approaching from the southwest, with some parameters in place to support some interesting weather. But that’s still far enough away that there is plenty of time to re-evaluate the situation.
TODAY: Overcast. A coating to 2 inches of snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH changing to rain, with rain elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday-afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Areas of fog forming. Chance of rain showers before dawn. Lows 39-46. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs ranging from 55-62 South Coast to 63-70 elsewhere, occurring late. Wind variable under 10 MPH early then becoming SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH by mid to late afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of snow/mix at night. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
2 storms may impact the region during this 5-day period, the first of which may contain mix/snow for portions of the region. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
Dry to start the period, then another storm threat for the start of April. Temperatures near to above normal.

151 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thank you Tk . Quick clarification. Yesterday I was pretty sure I heard of fist death on ch 5 . I just wanted to say it was the first death in New England not mass . I also heard it this morning on fox 25 . Have a great day

  8. Thanks TK
    South Shore Kid The first death from COVID19 happened in CT yesterday. The man was 88 years old from Ridgefield. He lived in an assisted living facility.
    It would be classic March weather to having a warm day tomorrow then a few days later accumulating snow.
    SPC does have western MA and CT in the marginal risk for tomorrow. New this year the SPC will give tornado hail and wind percentages on the day two outlook.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    1. Thanks JJ. I saw a few tornado warnings last night well west of Dallas. Hopefully, they were in sparsely populated areas.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Nice drink of water for the region.

    Vernal equinox sneaks in tonight just prior to midnight.

  10. Well unfortunately, my son tested positive early this AM. He’s self-quarantined at home since he’s not in a high risk category. Thirty days quarantine and must retest after the first 15 days. Not much he can do except drink fluids, sleep, eat when he can, and take some anti-virals. Not fun!

    2. Oh Crap! So sorry. Hope he stays a mild case and recovers ASAP!!!

      If I may ask, how did he qualify for a test?

    3. First of all so sorry I sincerely hope he recovers fast. 30 days that doubled up though it was 14 day quarantine

  12. Lunenburg got 2.1″ of snow this morning. Our total for the season is 55″. The average is 64″. It sure seems like we got much less because 25″ of the 55″ this season came from the storm in early December.

  13. I am not biting on it because the EURO might be way amped early next week but if the that snow accumulation happens BDL in CT would be close to normal for the season and Bridgeport where the records are kept for the CT shoreline would fall out of top 10 least snowiest winter on record.

  14. Thank you TK!
    Longshot I hope he recovers quickly, stay healthy yourself.
    Vicki a Big thanks also goes out to you for the virtual tour site for the kids!

  16. Longshot, I’m sorry to hear about your son.

    JP Dave, I’m also sorry to hear about the health woes in your household. Coupled with Covid-19 there must be plenty of anxiety.

    WHW gang, stay safe.

    And thank you, TK. As I mentioned yesterday a little snowstorm really could brighten up everything.

    1. I echo the same wishes to everybody that is being directly impacted now.

      I haven’t had that much time to check in here the last few days taking care of a bunch of other things.

      As far as the weather will continue to monitor that snow threat early next week. In my opinion it is a legitimate snow threat but I don’t necessarily mean major. That remains to be seen.

  17. Good morning, everyone.

    Longshot, my prayers for your son and family.
    JPD: My thoughts to Mrs. OS and your family.
    TK: Hope Mom continues strong!

    I hope everyone is well and trying to stay calm.

    Crazy and surreal days, my friends! A day at a time.

    I have spent the last couple of days trying to figure out on-line teaching. We (the MPS teachers) have compiled links to on-line learning. I have put worksheets and practice up on my students’ Google Classroom. We are only doing review and enrichment. No grading.

    I agree with Joshua: Some exciting weather would get our minds off of things! 🙂

    Happy St. Joseph’s Day and First Day of Spring!
    Spring is a time of renewal and rebirth. Better days are coming!

    Peace, WHW!!!!

    1. Thanks, TK…This blog has been a huge blessing for me and for all of us who hang out here during these challenging days.

      1. Strange times! I know we’re all trying to make the best of the situation. However, nothing can replace the face-to-face contact, the smile, the laugh that we’re missing.

        My son is a senior in the school where I work (Middleborough High). He stands to lose his outdoor track season (which has already been cut in half), senior class trip to Florida, senior prom, senior last week activities and the graduation ceremonies.

        1. That stinks I’m so sorry . My son is a sophomore was going to Italy 4/15 . His virtual school is live .

  20. To Longshot, JPD and others who are dealing with this virus first hand, may your loved ones get better very soon! Take care of yourselves as well!

  21. I keep seeing horror stories of people who are sick and in some cases very
    sick that are still being REFUSED testing. DIGUSTING!@()#(!)(@#&*!@&#*!&@

    1. I agree. My son goes to Middlesex Community College (MCC). This is from the school’s web site:
      “We are notifying the MCC community that we have four presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 within our community. These members of our community, two in Bedford and two in Lowell, have symptoms of COVID-19, however they are unable to be tested due to lack of testing kits.”

      And then the MCC system is also messed up. My son got an email saying that he may have been exposed to one of these people in Lowell last Friday or Saturday. He has no classes at the Lowell campus this semester and he has no classes on Friday or Saturday. Not exactly comforting.

    2. Next week old salty the numbers should start doubling . Testing is about to go into extreme Fast mode

  23. Thank you everyone!

    So the way it seems to work is that my son is self/quarantined for 30 days but if he tests ok on day 15, he’s out of quarantine. He is 34 and pretty healthy to start with. Thank you again!!

  24. I have a bad feeling now that it’s only a matter of time before state or local officials throughout begin “Staying in Place” directives. It is a last resort but may be necessary eventually. I would imagine many more businesses would shut down for awhile including banks, post offices, etc. Scary times we are living in right now.

    1. Exactly Philip . I’ve spoke with many nurses & doctors things will be picking up very shortly . We all need to do our part . Help a struggling person if you can , check on your neighbor . It’s times like this that most folks rise to the occasion.

    2. Do you really think we are down to our last resort with zero confirm dead in Mass? You guys really need to get a grip. Your pulling yourselves down as well as others who read this weather blog.

      Be positive!

  28. Again a sincere thank you to everybody being able to discuss things in a civil manner. I know some of you are of vastly differing view points on some issues but this is a time agree or disagree we need to just take things in stride the best we can and support one another. No, most of us will not suffer greatly, but some of us will be more significantly impacted, as we are already seeing family members of blog participants. I am wishing as hard as I can that those folks’ loved ones recover fully and that nobody else is impacted. We know there is still quite a way to go and as long as we need to use this forum for back and forth and support we will. You will notice as we settle into the “whatever you want to call this regime” that it will get easier to chat weather again. It doesn’t mean we will forget what’s going on. It means that this is how many of us cope. We find elements of normalcy during highly anomalous times. We did it in the days following 9-11 as a society. I realize that some of you may feel there is a lot of gloom and doom here right now and I understand that as well but we just need, as a small online family, to work through it, and more interjections of humor will appear as we each feel comfortable using them. On Facebook I’m still posting multitudes of photos I take. It’s a temporary distraction for those who want to use them as that. Everyone needs a break. So again thank you everybody. I appreciate your cooperation and ask you to please continue that. 🙂

    And speaking of a break, I will look over the 12z data which I haven’t had a chance to do yet, and see if there are any comments I can make on the upcoming weather. Tomorrow may be kind of exciting from a weather geek’s perspective. And next week may be as well. More later. Coffee break time.

    1. Send me over a cup. I haven’t had one since last Friday. I haven’t been
      out of the house since last Friday.
      I have 2 prescriptions ready at CVS and even though they advertise
      delivery, they say my insurance doesn’t cover it. Time to bend the rules.
      I spoke to the pharmacist and she will discuss with pharmacy manager
      when he/she comes in at 4PM. I “think” they’ll work something out.
      I told them that I would be happy to pay for the delivery if that is the issue.

      Will be interesting to see what happens. My son would pick it up for me,
      but he is still sick (not bad, but he can’t go out).

      Thank you TK for all you do.

      Would be particularly interested in you thoughts of the 12Z Euro.
      12Z Canadian on board. 12Z GFS has the system, but suppressed just
      a bit too far South.

      1. Ugh. I went to cvs drive thru and picked up Tylenol this morning. I never have it but cdc said no ibuprofen if you have covid 19. I wore gloves and donated the extra few dollars change. But they told me to use their app for delivery. How is this not covered. Arghhh

    2. Tk…….I have no words that say an adequate thank you. I bounce back and forth depending on what I can handle for news. I suspect most of us do. But to know all of you are here and how you are doing is a true comfort

      I wish the very best for every single WHW family member.

  29. TK I look forward to hearing your thoughts later on the thunderstorm potential tomorrow and snow potential early next week.

  30. My son talked to his pcp again today and told them he was still sick.
    They are having him come in. Will they test him? they should. Will find out soon.
    thanks

    3. Praying they will test. If he mentioned Mrs OS and You close by, I’d think that would cinch it

      1. Nope. No dice. No test. The dr even thinks he might have walking pneumonia and prescribed a Z-pack, still not test! INSANE!!!

        1. Is his cough dry or juicy? They used that for my youngest grand who had a Slight fever yesterday. Not sure if is a great determining factor but said CV19 has a dry cough. Hers is juicy.

          1. He Doesn’t have much of a cough. He is congested
            and has a little shortness of breath and fever for
            6 days.

      1. Yikes. At this point I am really torn so I’m letting mom nature decide

        Well…we know that up till now she has no say in the final decision…..don’t we 😉

  32. Joshua before the snow potential I am might be tracking some thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon. SPC has expanded the marginal risk to include a good chunk of the SNE with the exception of eastern areas.

  33. Weather thoughts…

    You’d think that with plenty of low level chilly air in place it would be very hard to get a warm front through here, especially since there will be a low pressure wave departing to the east tonight. Well that’s only temporarily true. Progression takes that wave far enough away, and progression also means there will be no high to hold the cold wedge in through Friday. While it may take a while to scour out the surface chilly air, it will happen in time and I believe all locations end up with a pretty decent southwest wind by early to mid afternoon at the latest. That leaves the morning for damp/chilly weather which may make some people doubt that the warmth will arrive. I’m pretty confident it will though. We’ll need some help getting the temps to or slightly over 70, i.e., periods of sunshine. They are possible, but not likely. Clouds may remain quite dominant in which case our max potential is really middle to upper 60s where the southwest wind is not traveling over the ocean first. Where it is, look for 50s to lower 60s, coolest as you get closer to the South Coast / Cape Cod.

    How about the cold front and t-storm chances? Thunder is a stretch. NAM is the only model that hints it could happen, but experience tells me that this front, while having decent moisture to work with, will really only be able to generate a thin line of moderate to locally heavy showers with not enough for thunder. Can’t rule out a renegade cell in there that can pop a lightning flash or 2, but don’t bet on it.

    The March chill comes back over the weekend, very similar to last weekend, except this time we won’t cloud over with high level overcast like we did from that wave passing south of us last weekend. Should just see some passing fair weather clouds Saturday and a gusty NW breeze which then turns lighter but more NE during Sunday, the sunnier but colder of the 2 days.

    Snow potential early next week…
    Yup. There’s potential, but don’t immediately think this is about to be one of those classic spring snowstorms. While that particular scenario is not beyond the realm of slight possibility, the synoptic set up will likely favor a solution that lies somewhere between the 12z GFS & ECMWF. This leaves the door open for accumulating snow somewhere, maybe most places, in SNE between late Monday and Tuesday. However, it goes without saying since we are 4 to 5 days away from this potential event, that to speculate any more detail than that would be close to the equivalent of a blind guess.

    Another thing that remains to be seen is whether or not there will be a follow up wave taking a similar track right behind the first one. We’ll have to see how the short waves line themselves up. If you want to factor in the NAO & MJO for wintry chances, they are “eh” … NAO trends toward neutral and MJO heads from weak phase 2 into phase 3, which is borderline, at best, for snow threats. But we’re also getting into the time of year when that doesn’t work s well as it does in the middle of winter.

    Interestingly, the extended outlook shows a more negative NAO trying to appear right at the start of April.

    CPC updated their outlooks from 6-10 days all the way out to 14 months (as they do on the 3rd Thursday of each month). 6-10 & 8-14 are both mild & wet for New England, but not excessively wet. Their 3-4 week outlook and April monthly outlook trend it drier while keeping it mild. This would make for an enhanced fire season, as we talked about. But leaf-out being earlier than normal may at least help lessen the risk, somewhat, though not significantly. Just for fun, their really extended outlook makes 2020 summer warmer than average, continuing into autumn, with a cooling trend (relative to normal) for winter 2020-2021, with a bit wetter second half of spring then overall trending somewhat drier as we head through the rest of 2020. Take those with a salt boulder though. You know how long range forecasts can blow up just like that. 😛

      1. He tends to be a little more aggressive with his wording. But my assumption is that he’s putting a little more stock in the ECMWF, which I still use with great caution beyond day 3. If it were to verify its last few runs, yes a lot of New England would receive enough snow to bring out plows & shovels. We’re really only talking about a model forecast though, so normal cautions apply. I have said, however, the the pattern will support the chance of something wintry taking place. I’ve not changed that thought at this point in time.

    1. Thank you Vicki I appreciate that . Old salty they passed these out at work today thought it might help compare symptoms with cold , flu or corona .

      1. Some of the indexes for severe weather are up there for tomorrow but Ryan notes in the comments below that the mid-levels look a little dry for his liking. That said, “he is watching it”. Tornado threat is pretty low.

  37. Longshot – sorry to hear about your son. Hope he has a speedy recovery and gets cleared after 15 days. I think I would go nuts if I couldn’t leave the house for 30 days!

    So far in eastern CT, we have been spared the worst of this. Only 9 cases thus far in Tolland, Windham, and Middlesex counties and not 1 reported case yet in New London CT.

      1. Yes, and as expected the number of cases shot up. Western four counties in CT are up to 150 now.

  38. Bring on the Euro for early next week! There’s barely anyone on the roads anyway so why not? This could be Mother Nature’s forced “shelter in place” 🙂

      1. That was the same forecast he’s had for 2 days. With all due respect to him, I’d much rather go with my own ideas than a 2-day old extended forecast.

    1. Because i was under house arrest at doctors suggestion with flu, I am now two months past having hair color…..I’m now officially a skunk. And Fabio does have a certain charm

    2. Good thing I did my “cut it down to a #1” sides & back haircut about 10 days ago. I’m good for quite a long while. Maybe by late May I’d have a “That ’70s Haircut” 😉

      1. Oh man I’m freaking I had mine cut last Thursday Razor fade highs & tight. I am in the chair every two weeks if I can’t get it cut oh boy . I absolutely love getting my haircut .

    3. Mine is approaching cut time. I like it longer anyway and since I’m not
      going anywhere, who the hell cares!!!

      Bring me back to the 60s!!! Hippy Jpdave. 🙂

      1. Love it. I adopted that approach also. Just need my pink bell bottoms and I’ll be a kid again

  40. Wow I just saw the Jacobs family who own the Bruins won’t pay there hourly employees. This is wrong you cheap piece of crap. Told employee to look elsewhere.

    2. Thats their choice like it or not. Just like its your choice to purchase anything “B’s”

      Hit them in the wallet.

    1. I didn’t know what that was so I had to look it up. I haven’t had a drink
      in 15 years, so I am not into booze. I must say, it sounds nice. Enjoy!

    2. Oh we think alike. SIL did a run for me today….vermouth and Makers Mark. Also makes a great Kentucky derby mint julep

    2. More testing will definitely result in a huge jump in the numbers. We’ll see even more of this in the next several days. That’s why the steps being taken are crucial. May need to step those up even more until we can get to that point where we know we’ve safely passed the peak and been on the down-swing for a significant period of time.

    1. I kind of believe there are soooooo many more people out there, being asymptomatic or thankfully not that sick and that the number in the US that are positive could be in the hundreds of thousands. We’ll probably be there in about 5 days as increases in testing bring us to that kind of number.

        1. Yes.

          Sometimes, when I get a free minute, I just haven’t been able to wrap my brain about what has happened just in the last week. I know it’s happening and can rationalize it based on knowledge but I still can’t believe it.

      2. I was thinking about 5 days to a week until we’re reasonably close to seeing more accurate numbers (see above).

        1. Next month is going to be insane & if anyone thinks it’s being overblown they have a big surprise in store . No one & I mean No one has escaped this . You watch how high those numbers climb next week , more & more is shutting down & will continue. I see stuff in the city that you all see on the news ( scary Indy) like a bad movie or something. Hang in there & be safe .

          1. But we still have to react as calmly as possible. Realistic information, informed decisions, and don’t let fear be the pilot. We know what to do. All we have to do is do it, and be willing to make adjustments.

      1. The Italian situation is uniquely awful. The case fatality rate is 20-25 times that of Germany. The U.S. case fatality rate is 8 times lower than Italy. Actually, we’re doing fairly well in this regard, also compared to other countries like France, China, Spain.

        The post-mortem on the Italian tragedy will be the biggest news item in Europe in many years.

  45. construction in boston is shut down as you probably know.
    Planned layoff in two weeks. 4 kids. We’re all in the shit together.

    1. Son in law had everything in place to start his own business in a month. Sons GF who we adore being laid off cause courts closed. So yes with a very deep sigh… we are all in this shit together

  46. As Tom has alluded to, hundreds of thousands of Americans are walking around with this virus. It will be known to the world very soon. Testing has barely got off the ground. Health Officials in California project that 25.5 million residents of the state will be infected within 8 weeks which accounts for 56% of the population. What does that say for the rest of the country? Time will tell; however, scientists fear that between a third and one half of the US population will eventually become infected with COVID19. Should that occur and even 1% of those cases result in demise, over 1 million Americans will die. For those who still don’t believe that this virus poses a significant global threat, you soon will. I am praying for everyone on WHW.

    1. I’m assuming people who are completely asymptomatic will never be tested and therefore will never be counted. Correct?

      1. Sadly, even those who are symptomatic may never be tested unless they have come in close contact with someone with confirmed COVID19, have traveled to areas outside and within the US with high rates of transmission, are over 60 or have underlying comorbidities.

    2. I believe those are worst case doomsday scenarios and I would be very surprised if those numbers are even close to realized with all the quarantines and closures in effect. If nothing had been done, perhaps…..

      Can you link the article/source of those projections you are citing?

      1. It’s not worst case scenario. It may be reality. This all started with patient 0. And in just 12 weeks, there are over a quarter million cases. That doesn’t even account for the under reporting my certain countries as well as the inability to test all whom should be tested. Unfortunately, such projections may be too conservative.

        At your request, here is your source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/19/coronavirus-california-estimates-25point5-million-residents-56percent-of-the-state-will-get-virus-in-next-8-weeks.html

        1. Thank you. I just saw the CNN headline pop up that they put the entire state on lockdown. Only 900+ “official” cases there now so hopefully that mutes the increase.

          1. Unless it’s marshal law, people won’t listen. This piece mealing nonsense will not make a significant difference, unfortunately. Look at what happened when patient 0 became infected 12 weeks ago. It will take a prolonged national shut down to beat this virus until treatments and/or vaccines become available via FDA approval.

            People are still not taking this seriously, especially the millennials. So you can lock down the entire state of CA and you can close malls and restaurants, but until there is a marshal law shelter in place order, the CORONAVIRUS prevails.

  47. Italy has the oldest average population in Europe and one of the oldest in the world. 25% of the population is over 65.

    It also has a very high rate of smokers with 35 million of the 60 million people who live there being smokers or people have previously smoked in their lives.

    Average age of death for CV patients has been 79.5 years old and 99% of them had pre-existing health problems.

    Hopefully this is a wake up call for their population about the dangers of smoking.

    1. Yes but it is not a stretch for US Health Officials to project that a third of US Americans may eventually end up infected with this highly transmissible virus. The US population sits over 330 million. A third of that is 100 million. If even 1% of those cases result in death, that is still over a million Americans lost to the virus. This is why the WHO and the CDC is behaving the way they are. This isn’t hype. This is real.

      1. I’m really hoping anyone in the fence listens to your warnings arod. Please all recall arod is part of the healthcare community

      1. Correct Matt. 36% to be precise. Young adults are not immune to moderate disease resulting in ICU admissions.

  50. I am sorry for all of those that have been infected. On a more positive twist to the corona virus, environmentally this has been a beneficial break for our environment. All over the world there has been decrease air and water pollution and we have seen nature react to this in several ways. There are also many people saying they are breathing the most fresh air they have experienced in a long time in their home areas. As a environmental scientist, this shows me several things that I can use in my debates with anthropological climate change deniers. Negative. This type event will increase in occurance with degrading environmental conditions. Earth has a series of scales and humans have tipped the scale, and if we don’t start treating the earth right these things will get worst, and we all will suffer. I won’t get into any more detail, just know its all connected.

  55. Thank you Arod for your insightful contribution as it is much appreciated.
    Still, there are those that take this virus lightly.

    It’s funny, When I approached my boss a week ago Monday about working from
    home, she didn’t think it was that serious. I told, oh to the contrary, this is about
    as serious as it can get. I was granted permission about 1 week before the board
    of directors ordered Everyone who could to work from home. Now she knows
    how serious it is.

    We have friends who traveled to Florida on Mar. 8 against our advice NOT to do so.
    Now they may be stuck there as they plan to stay to the end of the month.
    Some people just don’t listen.

Comments are closed.