Friday Forecast

128 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
We can officially welcome spring 2020. The vernal equinox, the earliest since 1896, occurred at 11:49PM EDT last night.
Today will display quite the change, from the chilly and damp weather we start with to almost a hint of summer in places late in the day s it will have warmed around 30 degrees and the day may end with a shower or thunderstorm. This will be due to the passage of a warm front this morning and the approach and passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening, trailing from low pressure passing to our north. Colder air filters in behind this over the weekend, and it will be dry. But high pressure taking up residence in eastern Canada and the approach of the next low pressure system sets up a more interesting scenario for late Monday, when it will be cold enough to support snow, for at least a portion of the region. Details to be worked out on that system still, which will be departing Tuesday as it moves along.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs ranging from 55-62 South Coast to 63-70 elsewhere, occurring late. Wind variable under 10 MPH early then becoming SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH by mid to late afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, then clearing although clouds may linger over southeastern MA and RI. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: May start with lots of clouds RI and southeastern MA, otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix likely north, mix/rain likely south (more detail later). Lows 28-35. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with mix/rain/drizzle/fog possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
A very unsettled home stretch of March. Look for very little sun during this 5-day period and low pressure systems impacting the region March 25 (rain/mix most likely), March 27 (rain showers most likely), and sometime over the March 28-29 weekend potentially with any type of precipitation possible. We will be near the border of very cold air to the north and much warmer air to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Dry end to March, unsettled start to April is the early indication.

128 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you Arod for your insightful contribution as it is much appreciated.
    Still, there are those that take this virus lightly.

    It’s funny, When I approached my boss a week ago Monday about working from
    home, she didn’t think it was that serious. I told her, oh to the contrary, this is about
    as serious as it can get. I was granted permission about 1 week before the board
    of directors ordered Everyone who could to work from home. Now she knows
    how serious it is.

    We have friends who traveled to Florida on Mar. 8 against our advice NOT to do so.
    Now they may be stuck there as they plan to stay to the end of the month.
    Some people just don’t listen.

  5. I would also like to thank Arod for his medical opinion it’s awesome to have a health care provider on here & explaining how serious this is but most of us here know that . Chilly in the city but I guess we have a warm up .

  6. Good morning.

    Thank you, TK

    If I am correct, happy birthday to our Dr Stupid. Ya know…something about that just doesn’t sound right. But I’m wishing you an amazing day!

  7. I would also like to thank Arod for the comments and especially one in particular … piece mealing is not a solution. This has always been true about epidemics and certainly China and South Korea have demonstrated this lesson.

    For people out there who think today’s measures are too extreme, they won’t 4 weeks from now. These same people will probably be among the ones complaining that not enough is being done.

    FYI–as of last night, my son, as of now, is doing as well as could ever be hoped.

    1. Longshot, wonderful news about your son.

      I so agree re piecemeal. I’m thinking we will lock down MA very soon. But it needs to be the nation. The display in FL alone is beyond revolting.

    1. They promised me a call back yesterday. NEVER happened.
      I will be calling them again today. I am good for several days anyway.

      Thanks for the info. Should be policy all over. Seniors should NOT be going
      out to pick up prescriptions.

  9. Gloomy outside. But the weekend looks nice. I’ll take a hike somewhere. Gloomy return next week, but when I’m essentially quarantined does it matter?

    I’m not an epidemiologist. And, I try not to be alarmist about the novel coronavirus. Nevertheless, I do have an evolving view on the need for systematic as opposed to piecemeal policies. I’m all in favor of our federal system that allots power to states and locales. However, in the face of a pandemic – a virus that doesn’t recognize borders of any kind – I do believe we need a national lockdown that can halt the spread of the virus within a matter of weeks. I wrote about this in Forbes and posted it last night:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/03/19/nationwide-lockdowns-can-begin-to-halt-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-a-matter-of-weeks/#4463463512e1

    1. Wow I’m impressed I had no idea you were a writer . Excellent, excellent read & it’s nice to put a face to the name . Boy it seems like we are finding out a tad bit more of each other here lately which is nice .

    1. I’ve seen so many wonderful clips from carol burnett this week. Was the TP one shared here. I started watching reruns of her show on amazon prime. My grandkids were in hysterics. They have no clue what a variety show is. The dentist one was one of them.

      I’m going to watch again. Have to check JPDs

      Thank you both

        2. We met her VERY briefly when visiting Rudy Vallee. Although, he was furious with her because he discovered Vicki Lawrence and she never gave him credit.

      1. I start my school day each day at 5 am with my coffee and my episodes of “I Love Lucy” on the Hallmark Channel.

        1. My oldest and her kids watch a ton. I am going to start recording. Thank you for the reminder. The Lucy Desi Christmas special each year is easily my favorite of all.

  14. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning, y’all:

    Sun is trying to break through the fog and gloom here in Taunton which, hopefully soon, will be symbolic for us all.

  16. Sun is coming out where I am. Now waiting to see how long it stays out and if some thunderstorms could pop. The more sunshine away from the ocean influence the more unstable it will get.

    1. A tad brighter here. I just had to identify the odd noise outside. A neighbor’s lawn service is mowing their lawn. Long time since I’ve heard that sound.

  18. Mark’s point on the age of the Italian population is well taken. Also, a large percentage of smokers. However, Germany also has an old population; almost as old as Italy. And, it has a large percentage of smokers, though not as large as Italy.

    Something went terribly awry in the Italian healthcare system.

    And, the Italian family structure – which is otherwise truly admirable and wonderful – often has multiple generations in the same household, which may explain exponential growth in cases (though not the case fatality rate). The data from China indicate that the majority of infections occur within the same household.

    1. Well that give me comfort …..or not so much 😉

      That said. I’ll have to check the multigenerational households in the US. I believe it has increased

  19. Mass reporting it’s fist death of an older gentleman with underlying condition died in a Boston hospital . RIP . Source WCVB

  21. I have not seen much sun which is a good thing because this lessens the chance of strong thunderstorms.

    1. Agreed …… I do wonder though if your area could still see some strong winds in a weakened line of showers.

  22. The thinking where I am is a locally strong wind gust is possible but nothing widespread.
    The SPC does have my area in the marginal risk.

  23. Sun trying to peak through in Boston.

    Buildings were shrouded in fog during my 6 mile run this morning.

    The Italian data just came in for today: 627 deaths; nearly 6,000 new cases. These are staggering numbers, and it takes a lot to stagger me. The lockdown takes about 2-3 weeks to work, and we’re about 8 days into the lockdown.

    Trump is correct to point out that the case fatality rate in the U.S. is lower than expected. I think our healthcare system, however fragmented, is doing a reasonable job. At last count the U.S. has reported 230 deaths. The numbers are steadily rising. But, it’s still a small fraction of what Italy, Spain, France, and China have been reported. To prevent an `Italy’ from happening here it’s important that the whole nation be vigilant.

    1. Another thing to mention is that there is a statistically significant difference between males and females in terms of case fatality rates. And this corresponds to most illnesses, by the way. Females are the stronger sex. Their survival rate from Covid-19 is significantly higher.

      Setting aside Covid-19, across all nations the overall difference in life expectancy between males and females is strikingly similar: ~ 6 years. This has amazed me since I was a teenager in high school taking biology classes.

  24. Good afternoon!

    Thank you again everybody!

    Joshua: excellent article, and I agree with it. I’d like to share this with some people I know if you don’t mind.

    Weather: I’ll get to that a little later this afternoon as I just walked in the door from a busy 6+ hours with attention diverted away from weather. I need to catch up on the latest info. Will post soon about it…

  25. Tk,
    don’t you have some sort of immune deficiency issue along with your A-Fib?
    If so, you may be at higher risk of this damn codvid-19 than I am. Protect yourself
    and your Mom!!

    1. I have an autoimmune disease that is a cousin to lupus. It attacks my large intestine first, and if untreated will eventually go after my joints (knees, ankles) causing swelling and severe pain and the inability to walk on them, skin (hive outbreak that looks like froot loops), and the lining of the eyeball (nodular episcleritis) that causes a portion of the whites of the eyes to turn red, develop nodules, and become extremely painful. In fact, only about 25% of anybody who gets this has one complication besides intestinal inflammation (ulcerative colitis), and I got 3 of them.

      It is the medication that I take for the disease that lowers the action of my immune system and puts me at greater risk for contracting illnesses and fighting them off if I get them. The medication, while helpful, can also cause my liver or kidneys to go haywire at any moment, so I have to be tested every 3 months to monitor the function of those organs. I was diagnosed in 1994, and it took until about 2001 to find the right medication combo to put me into remission more often than not. All of my blood tests to-date have come back normal. My latest test was done on March 17. Awaiting results.

  26. so I been seeing a lot of people say its Millennials that are putting people at risk. This is not accurate as most of the people on spring breakers are Gen-z Born from 1997 to early 2010s,millennial (1981 to 1996) stop blaming everything on us. Boomers are the ones that put us in this mess in the first place so please get your facts straight before blaming another age group. If you don’t we won’t help you with your online video chat activity. Most of uns Millennials are what is making it possible for people to still work via online sources 😉 The bigger picture is that we need to stop this whole generational thing that’s going on and just help one another.

        2. That was a bit harsh. Like you are accusing me of being one of those people who did what you said was going on above. You could not be more incorrect, and I would appreciate a little better approach next time. That’s very close to over the line on my rules here, so keep that in mind. Generalizing groups of people for the actions of few is generally a very poor choice. And for the record, I’m not actually a “baby boomer”. But my living older brothers thank you for your kind words.

          1. my point exactly, it does not feel good, its harsh this was not targeted at any individual person but an overall feeling that many people of my generation is feeling. there was a comment yesterday where Millennials was used on here which got my blood boiling as I been seeing this every where on line. Millennials are being blamed for so much and it is getting to us as an age group. I have been seeing many older people walking the beaches here on St. Thomas USVI, many vacationers that have not left the island yet so saying millennials are not paying attention to this crisis is doing exactly what your upset with me about generalizing a group. Its not cool. I am sorry if I upset you or anyone else and I could have phrased things better.

            1. I don’t need to be taught that lesson. I’m well aware of it. The folks that decide to blame an entire generation (and they don’t themselves fit into any one generation) are ignorant, and them learning a lesson , while possible, is not exceedingly likely.

              So instead of just defending “Millennials”, defend those who do heed warnings and act responsibly, and be disappointed in those who don’t, no matter what generation or age group they belong to. They all have one thing in common: they are members of the human race with an ethical obligation to be responsible. It’s just, unfortunately, not everybody feels they need to answer that call.

    2. We also need to stop the partisanship. Go back to whatever you want when this is over but now we need to work together

      Ages for groups vary. I don’t think I’ve seen millennials used here or elsewhere. And I don’t really care what the age of the folks are in FL. They disgust me.

      1. I agree completely on those points.

        The partisanship still being displayed by a fair amount of people is frankly disturbing and actually showing me where the true hatefulness is. If politics is greater than this crisis to somebody, then they need to take a serious look at their priorities.

        We’ll get a chance to speak our political minds at the polls come election day.

  27. The Netherlands numbers (average within Europe):

    2994 cases

    281 in intensive care (45% are under 55)

    106 deaths

  28. In the discussion of age groups and differences between people I’m reminded of what Paul and Stevie once wrote:

    We all know
    That people are the same wherever you go
    There is good and bad in everyone
    When we learn to live, we learn to give each other
    What we need to survive
    Together alive

    1. The reference to the black & white keys of a piano together in harmony is my favorite of all time. Timeless song.

  29. TK, autoimmune disorders like the one you have are very difficult to manage. Thank you for sharing with us all information on the disorder you suffer from.

    1. I’m pretty lucky. I’ve managed to get this thing in remission pretty much 90 to 95% of the time now. My flares have been less frequent and of shorter duration, in general, during the last 12 years, compared to before that.

  30. What a beautiful afternoon and evening ahead.

    Would love some good snow on Tuesday but please get us dry weather so the kids can at least get out of the house.

    1. If that storm produces snow, most of it will be Monday PM. And we will get through most of this evening quite nice. The timing of the broken squall line that I predicted is keeping it well away from this area until after sunset. It has formed, running from southwestern VT to north of Albany, a break, and another line south of Albany into eastern PA.

  33. Scary stat that was just issued by the WHO. There are now more than 250,000 people who have been infected with COVID19. The coronavirus that causes COVID19 needed more than 3 months to infect 100,000 people worldwide. It then needed just 12 days to infect the second wave of 100,000.

    1. There are a lot of folks that don’t understand multiplication. Now they’re getting quite the lesson. And in all of it, not to be forgotten is we want to stop it for the vulnerable. Most of us will recover “just fine”. That 1% who will not is still an awful lot of people.

    2. Interesting comment. These come in three waves. I would not have known that if not for Macs brother. I suspect most don’t. So are you thinking this is wave 2 of 3. With 3 being less if norms are followed.

      1. Vicki what I can tell you from many conversations at work with doctors & nurses I don’t know what kind of wave number it may be what I’m being told is the next 6 weeks is going to be tough , really tough . They tell me it’s just the very beginning. The stuff I see with each passing day is just crazy . An unknown Boston hospital is setting up a massive tent in addition to the one they have in addition to a drive through . Once the massive testing starts Monday I believe by this time next week people will be like what the he’ll . Support a business , thank someone , help the neighbor just be a helping hand . Im site Arod will back all this up as this is not my opinion it’s what I’m being told by the front line medical staff

  35. Thanks TK.

    First 80 degree day of the year down here today. We are a month or more ahead of schedule in terms of the spring bloom, never seen anything like it.

    1. Thanks, WxW:

      Just took a walk around the Back 40 and noticed that leaves are starting sprout on the crabapple, a full month ahead of schedule!!!!!

  36. Arod, thanks for your thoughts on the virus, really appreciate what everyone in the medical community is doing for us right now. I just can’t believe how bad it is, this is a turning point in human history.

  37. As you all know, the 34 year old Wuhan doctor who blew the whistle died more than a month ago: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51409801

    Well, a dissenting doctor in Italy – 57 – just died: https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/marcello-natali-italian-doctor-who-exposed-supply-shortage-dies-from-coronavirus/

    Lesson: We must put a premium on dissenting voices that don’t just go along for the sake of job security or approval by the boss. I’m hopeful America’s doctors, CDC officials, and scientists heed this lesson, not just in the current epidemic but in future public health crises. These crises should not be politicized – as they are currently on BOTH sides. They should be handled by doctors, CDC, and scientists. Presidents and governors may lead, direct traffic, but NOT muddy the waters with inserting themselves into the crisis by either downplaying it, exaggerating it, or trying to win political points. I’m tired of the grandstanding on BOTH sides of the aisle in this epidemic.

      2. Sadly we cannot compare. But many know this …I am one of those many. But what we have is all we have to work with. Me? I won’t forget in November and I don’t expect anyone to, but I will do my very best to be part of one voice now when it is most needed

        1. I completely agree.

          There is no room for politics in this situation.

          We have what we have. Like it or not. You have to hope for the best.

  39. Gov. Baker and Boston Mayor Walsh still have no plans whatsoever for a “Stay in Place” order. Even the President has no plans for any kind of a national shutdown.

    Famous last words??

    Any locations in New England currently with one? Just morbidly curious.

    1. That’s a problem. They need to rip the bandaid off so we get to economic recovery sooner. WW2 left Europe in a pile of smashed brick with 50 million dead and up until this, was the worlds playground. We can get though this. Just have to lean into the pain. U.S. has had it good for a long time. Time for a generation to take it on the chin standing.

  40. Good morning,

    Our daughter sent as an Amazon E Card so we could have food delivered from
    Whole foods and NOT go out. We ordered 33 items on Wednesday and 23 of
    the items were delivered last evening, leaving 10 items out of stock! They didn’t
    even have cheese! They did have milk, so that’s something.

    Will be placing another order today and we’ll see what we get.

    Today is 8 days since I have been out of the house and 18 days since my wife
    has been out of the house. We have a bunch of supplies stock piled, so I am
    hopeful with that and Whole Foods, we’ll get by OK. I guess we’ll be eating
    a crap load of pasta. Egg noodles, Elbows and spaghetti with pasta sauce or
    Whole Peeled tomatoes or even butter if need be. We also froze some hot dogs and rolls and some chicken cutlets.

    And bottom line, IF I have to go out I will, but trying to avoid it if at all possible.

    NEVER I have seen anything like this before. Unprecedented.

    Hang tough all.

    1. If it ever came to it, I’m not far away and could help deliver groceries. I’ll bring my wife along, who I’ll bet knows the JP area a lot better than I do.

      1. You are too kind. We have some neighbors who have
        volunteered to do shopping, if necessary. Thank you so much.

    2. We did Wegmans instacarte—we got most of what we ordered—and the cool thing is they are filling your order, you get texts saying something is out of stock and proposals for alternatives. It’s a little pricey—$15.99 service fee and $3.99 delivery fee for $250 worth of food.

  41. re: Weather
    Looks like TK will be correct once again. Yes there will likely be a storm
    late Monday into Tuesday AM, however, As predicted by TK not as amped
    up as earlier runs. Most precip will fall at night or at least late in the day, so
    sun angle shouldn’t be much of an issue. Boundary layer temperatures will be the
    biggest issue along with the warm ground to limit accumulations. Even Kuchera
    snow totals will be high.

    Still the potential for several inches where it is all snow. Likely rain/Mix at times
    in Boston perhaps limiting accumulation to an inch or 2, but there is still a couple of days and it is Spring, so who knows. Perhaps we can eek out 3-6 inches. Would brighten up the area, even for a day or two and snow does not last long this time of year.

    2. They just need to get it started now. It’s not like we’ll be locked in, but the big time limitations will go further than just suggesting, because too many people still don’t listen, and it only takes a handful to undo what everyone else is trying to do.

  45. JpDave the thinking is the Governor of NJ is going to issue the same thing this afternoon.

  46. I suggest any errands, no matter how routine to do it ASAP. Yesterday after work I went to the barbershop even though I recently got a haircut and still short by my personal standards. I got my hair as close as humanly possible. It’s just a matter of time of a lockdown no matter what Gov. Baker/Boston Mayor Walsh says.

    I have laundry that will ready Monday. Fingers crossed any “order” won’t take place no earlier than mid-week.

    1. All my essential errands will be set by the end of this weekend. There isn’t much, actually. And even if/when we do make that step here in MA there will still be very limited movement for some essential stuff, so everyone will get through.

        1. For the most part. They have a list of “essentials”. Those would remain open with every caution possible in place.

          99% of people that get this virus will survive it in this country. But that 1% that is too vulnerable and would have very little chance is ultimately the goal of maximum protection. And we do that by preventing people with literally no to barely detectable symptoms from possibly infecting them. 1% of the population is still A LOT of people. And yes a lot of them are elderly, but a lot of them are not. Regardless of age, they all deserve protection. We would never want to see a healthcare system so overwhelmed that they would have to literally choose to let someone die that otherwise has a chance to survive and fully recover. This may be unprecedented in recent times, but it’s not unprecedented in history. We actually know how to do this, even though many think they do not.

    1. Sounds somewhat reasonable, however, there is still a chance of “some” snow
      to the coast. We shall see.

    2. We have some old neighbors who now reside in Oakland. They are older
      citizens are terrified. They are also under that lockdown.

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