Saturday Forecast

76 Comments

9:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
Much like last weekend, in comes some Canadian chill, a breezy Saturday, and a more tranquil Sunday as the cold air becomes established from high pressure that takes up residence in southeastern Canada. This high is going to play a role in our next unsettled weather event as well, which will arrive Monday and peak Monday night as low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast and passes south of New England. This set-up is one that will allow snow to occur in a fairly significant portion of the region for at least several hours, resulting in accumulation, with the greatest threat of this being away from the coastal areas. Eventually warm enough air should be able to change things to rain for most locations before it all ends. I’m not convinced that the entire region changes to rain, however, and that and other little details will still be worked out over the next 2 days leading up to the event. But wait there’s more. There was a suggestion the other day that a follow-up storm would occur around Wednesday, and this looks to be the case. It may take a very similar track but with a slightly milder atmosphere, so the rain/snow ratio would be tipped more in favor of the rain, however at day 5 there are still questions to be answered with that system as well.
TODAY: Limited sun into late morning southeastern MA and RI, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix develops early then changes to rain but may remain snow/mix for longer away from coastal locations. Preliminary snowfall accumulation expectation: Coating-2 inches southeast of the I-95 belt, 2-4 inches I-95 belt and I-495 belt south of I-90, 4-6 inches I-495 belt north of I-90. Lows 28-35 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with mix/rain/drizzle/fog possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, except some mix/snow possible interior areas. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
A weaker storm system comes through later March 26 and March 27, a milder set-up with rain showers being the likely result. Another low pressure system brings the threat of rain/mix to the region sometime during the March 28-29 weekend. Drier weather arrives late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
Dry final day of March, unsettled start to April is the current indication.

76 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. C.A.D. being under-forecast by models, IMO, which is why I am a little colder for now than the NWS is. Not by much though. Only a couple degrees difference means measurable snow right into the city.

  5. Thanks TK!

    Now where does Logan fit in?

    Coating – 2”/ 2-4”?

    Bottom line, the high is in a lousy position to say the least.

    1. It’s not in a great position, but as I said, C.A.D. is underforecast in this situation. I’d consider Boston to be in C-2 at this point. A couple degrees either way and this shifts either southeast or northwest.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    As Vicki pointed out we lost another great talent in Kenny Rogers. 81 is too young.

  8. JPD. I saw your post about friends in Oakland. Macs brother not far from there in Moraga. Both are our age and were sheltering before the order since they are in business of hospital disaster management. It is also in part and with thanks to Mac’s brother that we started taking steps to prepare early. Their oldest works in a hospital in the town hit hardest first.

      1. Interesting. We will see then.

        I always think of C.A.D. mostly as a deep interior valley occurrence.

        1. Well, you’re partially correct. But that’s just more due to the fact that the cold air being dense is trapped in the interior valleys easily. If we have onshore winds and the coast warms up, these winds have trouble getting inland and even if they do that, they stay above the dense cold air in the valleys. So you have the right concept. But if you have high pressure to the north or northeast with a cold enough air mass, and the gradient wind is not too strong, you can hold the coastal areas pretty chilly as well, especially when the water is near or close to its coldest. We’re just coming off the coldest temps. Granted they were above normal, but the air mass and the air aloft (for a while) will compensate for that somewhat. That’s why I cannot rule out accumulation right into the city until I see how this is evolving inside 36 hours.

            1. Well, there’s always a chance. That high may be misplaced on some of these models. All it’s going to take is for that center to be 50 or 100 miles further NW and it changes the game. And I’m talking about the center of the high. Subtle changes in the medium scale can have significant impacts on the smaller scale. This will be one of those times.

    1. Thanks Joshua. We claim that the USA is the best in the world but our ranking in the world needs work.

  17. Mass DPH 112 new positive cases since yesterday . Next week the daily post will at least double if not triple

          1. I posted the link above. I explained to you why I reacted. Many ….including me…have family in the corrections department. Vague comments cause alarm. I know posting a link seems trivial, but to many of us it eliminates some stress.

  19. I apologize if my post regarding the inmate testing positive in the prison I meant no harm I was just assuming folks saw it on there phone or tv . I’m just going to get back to weather as that’s probably better . Today was nice working outside and I guess we hand some snow coming ( can’t say I like that but happy for you all that love the snow . I saw everyone out walking today with the bright sun

    2. I’d be interested in knowing what the sensitivity of the test is. That is the percentage of sick patients that actually test positive vs the number of sick patients that test falsely negative. Point of care tests have their advantages such as the relatively low cost to run as well as the quick turn around time. However, such tests also come with disadvantages, namely the low sensitivity. For example, the rapid flu test is approximately 60% sensitive which means that 60 out of 100 patients that are ill will test positive. This equates false negatives at a rate of 40%. A negative test does not mean the patient is not infected with COVID. In fact, patients who are symptomatic but test negative should still self quarantine.

      1. Excellent comment and my thought also. Quick strep are the same and have been since my kids were young. I used to insist on full culture. Now it is automatic

        Glad you are here arod

        1. You’re absolutely right. Interestingly, the rates of complications from strep including kidney failure and rheumatic fever have dropped significantly. For this reason, the CDC no longer recommends sending off a culture in the setting of negative rapid strep tests over the age of 17 since studies show that strep resolves without treatment. However, I still always send off a culture.

          1. Good for you. Pediatricians for my grands do also. For one grand in particular and for my son even now the rapid test has had false negatives more than once

  23. Could that area northwest of me in Upstate NY shift a little bit to the southeast for me. This might be the last flakes we see until later this year.

      2. Sorry to hear that! My son has it and is in 3rd day of quarantine and it’s not a lot of fun.

        1. Thanks all . He’s 65 and in good shape but an Asmatic who has the use of 1 1/2 lungs but with that said he is a marathon runner in great shape but when he gets sick it goes right to his lungs. This will test him but he should be ok

      4. Aiden your brother and Longshot your son will be in my prayers and I know the prayers of many others.

    1. 6-7 inches Merrimack Valley to north shore ….. 3-4 inches on northwest side of Boston, 8+ in Worcester Co and Berkshires

  28. I’m a big snow guy, but the last thing cities and towns need right now is costly snow removal and cleanup. 🙁

      1. It is VERY incorrect. Not even close.

        Although some snow might cleanse the atmosphere briefly? Who knows? Probably couldn’t hurt. Just my 1c.

  31. re: Food another supplies home delivery

    Here is a little service that our daughter turned us onto.

    It is called shipt Website: https://shop.shipt.com/

    It is $8.95 per month when one does an annual subscription.

    In my area, here are the stores that will deliver:

    Sur La Table
    Petco
    Roche Bros.
    Target
    CVS
    Star Market
    Shaw’s

    For some of this, it may be worth a look.

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