Sunday Forecast

114 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
High pressure in eastern Canada provides dry but colder weather today and sets the stage for an early spring storm that will include snow. This will take place as low pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks east northeastward near or just inside the 40/70 “benchmark” Monday night. There will be enough cold air in place for snow to dominate the first part of the storm (although it may start as rain initially in many coastal areas before some dynamic cooling drags down sufficiently cold air to flip it to snow. It will snow for the least amount of time over southeastern MA and RI where warmer air will be first to invade, and this snow-to-rain zone will progress north northwestward as the storm goes on, but will occur slowly enough so that measurable / plowable snow occurs in a fair amount of the I-95 belt northwestward, with highest amounts to occur in the higher elevations outside I-495 and north of I-90 (see details below on amounts). We’ll be in between systems on Tuesday, which probably will not see complete clearing, and then the next storm takes a similar track but in a slightly milder atmosphere for Wednesday. While I’m expecting some frozen precipitation to be involved in the second storm on Wednesday, I also expect more rain to be involved than the first system, so the snow should be more confined and have less impact than the first one. Thursday may be very much Tuesday as we again find ourselves between a departing low and another approaching low in an active pattern…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix develops early then changes to rain but may remain snow/mix for longer away from coastal locations. Preliminary snowfall accumulation expectation: Coating-2 inches southeast of the I-95 belt, 2-4 inches I-95 belt and I-495 belt south of I-90, 4-6 inches I-495 belt north of I-90. Lows 28-35 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with mix/rain/drizzle/fog possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, except some mix/snow possible interior areas. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures rising into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
The next in a series of low pressure areas comes through the region March 27, but with a further north track and milder air resulting in rain showers. A follow up low pressure system a little further south brings a chance of rain for a portion of the March 28-29 weekend. Generally dry but cool weather followed this for the last couple days of March.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
Current indications are for a tendency for high pressure in eastern Canada and a series of low pressure waves passing south of or over southern New England. This would be a cool and unsettled set-up.

114 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Re-Post

    re: Food another supplies home delivery

    Here is a little service that our daughter turned us onto.

    It is called shipt Website: https://shop.shipt.com/

    It is $8.95 per month when one does an annual subscription.

    In my area, here are the stores that will deliver:

    Sur La Table
    Petco
    Roche Bros.
    Target
    CVS
    Star Market
    Shaw’s

    For some of this, it may be worth a look.

  4. Another re-Post concerning snow or not

    6Z NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020032206/051/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow

    https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2020032206/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Probably a little more realistic than the regular NAM

    FWIW, GFS has ZERO Snow. All rain in SNE

    Reply
    JpDave says:
    March 22, 2020 at 7:45 AM
    0Z EURO is mostly a rain event across SE SNE

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020032200/054/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    10:1 snow

    https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2020032200/066/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    Reply

  5. My wife and I spent most of the day yesterday trying to get some food ordered.
    my wife has some severe allergies, so to obtain food she can eat is most difficult.

    We worked hard on a big Whole Foods Order only at the end to find out no
    delivery slots were available. The we spent much time on a Roche Bros pick up order where we place the order, they fill it and bring it to a designated location in the parking
    lot. Much safer than shopping in the store. We got a 3/28 slot for that.

    Then this morning, I tried the whole foods order again and got a delivery for TODAY!
    And I also placed a different order with Amazon Fresh and got a Tuesday Delivery.

    When these orders come in, we should be in decent shape.

    Does anyone know if sliced American cheese can be safely frozen?

    Thanks all.

    Hang tough.

        1. The site has a lot of info on whether you can freeze things or not. It’s a good resource in these times.

  6. Thanks TK!

    Is the I-95 belt the former 128? What includes the city of Boston? (C-2”)?

    I haven’t been on the highway in years. Is the designation 128 even still there anymore?

    1. Not sure. After I95, it was 128 from Westwood to Gloucester.
      I have no idea what the brilliant state minds have done. 🙂
      I have recently been to Peabody, getting off Rt1 and I do believe the
      sign said 128.

  7. re: Corona Virus
    Some good news, for now anyway.
    The US death rate is hanging in at around 1.3% which is really good compared
    to the rest of the world.

    For example, mortality rate in Italy now stands at 9% which is Staggering.

    Worldwide it is now: 4.3%

    Just a word of caution:

    1. These rates are ONLY the tested confirmed cases and do NOT include
    undocumented cases, thus the true death rate is much lower.
    2. Most cases in the US are new, so the rate may actually go up among tested
    cases.

          1. You are welcome. It sure is not easy. We have three birthdays in this months span. There will be many reasons to party when this is past.

  10. I hope the Governor speaks to the state this evening for an update. If he does shut it down, I hope it is AFTER tomorrow (mid-week) so I can pick up my laundry tomorrow after work. Even yesterday I picked up my dry cleaning after work.

    I imagine a LOT of basic services will be gone with a shutdown. I do appreciate the Governor and Boston Mayor Walsh holding off as much as possible though.

    The Mayor of Somerville is just itching to shut his city down immediately. He said as much on tv news yesterday and most folks support him.

    1. Laundry was listed as staying open in the CA bulletin so I would think it will be open here also. Hopefully

  11. I was able to set up delivery for My CVS prescriptions.
    They sent me a text and I was able to click on a link and set it up.
    I did not qualify for the same day delivery, but got a delivery set for 3/25, which
    is perfect. Now I don’t have to go get infected at CVS.

    1. Wonderful JPD. You just reminded me to have a script with no refills remaining reordered by my dr. Thanks

  12. As long as it is an essential service gas station, grocery store, pharmacy, banks, restaurants for take out or delivery it should stay open assuming MA gets to the point where CT starts tomorrow at 8pm Monday night.

  13. Vicki Governor Lamont is calling it a stay home stay safe policy and it begins at 8pm tomorrow night in CT. Other states that have this are New York, New Jersey, Nevada, and Illinois.

  14. How history looks back on this will be fascinating. The sociological and economic research that comes out of this will go on for decades. For example, The traditional hero’s are military, police, fire. They will do their share for sure but the pantheon hero’s in this will be the food supply chain workers, doctors, nurses…. there will be people who do this work that will lose their lives directly related to their contribution.

    1. I have observed that the Governors daily update has started a few minutes after the White House’s task force update has concluded.

    1. That’s a little more realistic. The NAM was a little over-the-top for a bit, but I was not surprised. Behind the scenes chatting with 4 colleagues so far, we all basically have the same snow forecast at this point.

  18. Our back deck pretty much faces due west. By about 3pm yesterday, the house was doing a decent job blocking the chilly breeze and it was great sitting in the fairly hot sun.

    Least of our worries, with that said, the weather pattern shifting into a more unsettled pattern isn’t going to help the mood.

    We’ll appreciate the sunny days when they come.

    1. I think around April 10 we’re going to be quite happy with the weather pattern (everything else aside).

  19. JPDave, I’m analyzing the global data on a daily basis and the skeptic in me is questioning some of the `rosy’ data on case fatality rates. First, Germany. The death rate there is so low as to be unbelievable. And, at this point I don’t believe it. All of the neighboring countries with similar populations and healthcare systems are reporting death rates between 5 and 15 times higher than Germany (and here I’ve excluded the extreme outlier Italy for my analysis!). Also, Germany still only reports 2 (!!!!) patients in serious and critical condition. That’s blatantly false. Impossible. All other countries worldwide report percentages ranging from 3% to 14% in serious and critical condition. Germany essentially says they have a 0% rate. This doesn’t make any sense. I speak German and will be calling the authorities tomorrow to make inquiries. It wouldn’t be the first time in the last 150 years that Germany has lied to the world.

    Second, the U.S. is reporting more realistic numbers than Germany, but also very much in the “I don’t believe it” range. I have a hunch that some of this has to do with the very poor tests CDC put out that produced hundreds of false negatives for patients with pneumonia (some have died while others are in serious and critical condition). They’re not being counted as Covid-19 cases. Many of them should be. But, they’re not being retested because of our testing issues.

    On the positive side, worldwide growth factor of new cases has dipped below 1 today. Let’s see if it stays below 1 tomorrow. That would be a good sign, and consistent with the fact that outside of Spain, Italy, and the U.S., numbers of new cases appear to be slowing. Unfortunately, I think that by next week the U.S. will be the only country with still near-exponential growth in new cases. On the positive side, the growth rate in U.S. should go down within 2 weeks, PROVIDED there is more CONSISTENT action across the U.S. to really drive the growth rate down. We can’t have Florida having a totally different policy than neighboring states, or New Jersey, for that matter. Piecemeal only prolongs the agony, as we’ll solve the problem in one area only to have it flare up elsewhere. It’s got to be systematic.

  20. Good morning all…

    Just wanted EVERYONE to know I understand your different points of view, your different concerns, and varying degrees of impact. I know there are at least 2 in our WHW group with family members currently trying to recover from the virus, and others having to take more than the typical steps to protect loved ones. I’m not forgetting about you and I wish you (and your loved ones) only the best. It’s easy to feel a little helpless when you can only wish somebody well, but it’s the nature of humanity. We have to try to trust that those who can help directly can do so, and everything turns out the best it can.

    If you have not been impacted beyond restrictions put in place to prevent direct impact, follow the restrictions and let’s minimize the impact as much as we can. It’s like sports: You can sometimes fall behind in a game but if you rally as a team, you can come back and win. So in the absence of sports (and so many other things) we take for granted but can’t enjoy for a while, let’s play this game as a team and win it!

    Weather: Well I just updated a while ago so no real changes. Not surprised on the NAM’s slight back-off as noted by JP Dave, because the NAM was likely over-forecasting things a bit anyway. At the moment I’m pretty much in line with NWS’s thinking on this. Will re-evaluate as the rest of today’s 12z, 18z, and 00z info comes in and if necessary, comment further on the storm threat this evening. My attempt will be to write Monday’s blog at least partially later tonight and have it posted as early as possible tomorrow morning, along with SAK’s weekly update.

    And now for a little distraction, borrowing a portion of a Facebook post I made earlier:

    On this cold but sunny morning as I sip my coffee and look out the 5 windows in my 2nd floor media room I’m listening to some tunes by Mr. George Benson, who turns 77 today. Wanted to share one tune sung by Georgie Boy, but written by 3 great musicians: Bill Champlin (best known as keyboard player and occasional lead vocalist for Chicago), Jay Graydon (excellent session guitarist who you hear as the soloist on Steely Dan’s “Peg”), and Steve Lukather (another awesome session guitarist but also co-founder and lead guitarist and occasional lead vocalist for Toto). Here’s the early 80s tune they gave Mr. Benson to sing…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tZWLRh3xmU

  22. Thanks TK.

    Very important to note that both NY and CT have deemed liquor stores an ESSENTIAL business and they can remain open 🙂

  23. TK with that post on George Benson you have rocketed to the top of the charts as “a person I’d like to have dinner with”. Forwarded it to my kids…my son in particular appreciates good vocalists as he sings with his College acapella group. Thanks.

    1. 🙂

      Speaking of…
      When we get by all of this I need to schedule a gathering of some kind.

  24. Thanks TK for today’s forecast, and the George Benson link.
    Happy belated birthday Dr. Stupid!
    A little chilly out but the sun feels great, Sun angle getting higher and higher, and a little natural vitamin D does some good.

  25. Someone mentioned the gov speaking following President. Does anyone know when WH will address today?

    1. Baker was just on after attending a church service. Not sure how that was allowed but he didn’t have much to say.

    2. Thank you JJ. And Philip,I don’t know. Sue said he spoke already. I am going to be majorly disappointed in him if he doesn’t get his act together.

  29. I am not sure. I know yesterday Governor Murphy of NJ held his press conference while The White House Cornavirus briefing was going on.

    1. Still looks like mostly rain Boston, with a little up front snow.
      Accumulation? Depends upon model of choice. Some say small accum, others
      say none.

  31. I am still concerned about the cavalier attitude of many people.

    My wife spoke with her sister yesterday and a friend today.
    Both couples are in their 70s and continually going out to the stores
    to pick up food and other items. We also have friends who left for Florida
    on Mar. 9 and are staying through the end of the month. They will not come home.

    I really honestly don’t think many people comprehend what is going on and how
    very serious this virus is.

    Ugghhhh. Can’t reach them either.

    On a positive note, I have a friend who goes to Florida every Spring and his
    wife recently completed chemo. He left on Mar. 1 and was planning on coming
    home April 1st. I had texted him that he should probably drive home early.
    When he texted me back, he said that’s exactly what they did and he arrived home
    last Friday evening, 3/13. Very smart decision and we were hoping our other
    friends would follow suit. Nope. I guess NOT as smart.

  33. New CDC info on coronavirus

    Contrary to previous beliefs, COVID-19 is an virus aerosol.

    Coronavirus can live in the air for 30 minutes to 3 hours.

    https://news4sanantonio.com/news/coronavirus/cdc-releases-new-times-covid-19-can-live-on-surfaces-up-to-3-days

    This may help explain the rapid spread of this virus and to my way of thinking
    makes it even MORE dangerous to be out in the stores.
    Also, since it lives on surfaces, one must be EXTREMELY careful with food
    and other items being delivered to one’s home.

    This is a living nightmare. It truly is.

    My wife and I are in survival mode, taking it one day at a time. The goal each
    day is to simply get through that day.

    2. We wipe down most everything we have brought in the house. Hopefully we now have enough to not need to go out and get anything more.

      1. (we also either wipe down mail with an antibacterial wipe or set it on the back porch and let the UV rays do their thing.)

  34. Re liquor stores – They are definitely a business that must stay open. There are people with severe alcohol dependencies that could damage their health if they stopped cold turkey. That said – I have ample alcohol but have been abstaining. Drinking liquor has shown to lower your immunity especially with this virus. I have increased my vitamin c intake substantially (we have tons of bottles of tang) and have increased my activity levels from almost sedentary to getting lots of walking around the house and yard in. Also since I’ve not been relying on fast food – lots of home cooked meals. I’ve dropped 20 pounds in the past two weeks from a combination of stress/anxiety and not eating out so much lol. I feel like unless there is a lock down of the state it isn’t a matter of if but when we all get sick. I hate to think that way. But I’m preparing my body to be in the best fighting chance should it happen. I can have a stiff drink when the curve is flattened.

      1. You mean that yucky Tang still exists? I thought that was gone years ago! Is there even actual vitamin C in that? Lol. 😉

    1. Awaiting mid afternoon update to snowfall projections.

      I really like the morning one because it has the upslope for Worcester co and the berkshires and the lower amounts btwn the 2 where lower elevation and a bit of shadowing would favor less snow.

      1. I looked at York, Maine….and may have done so incorrectly….but looks as if it will be more rain than snow. If I am correct, perhaps proximity to ocean?

        1. Yes, small part that they are near the ocean, a very low elevation and they may be too far north for the most intense precip.

          Elevated areas with heaviest precip intensity tomorrow night will do best.

  39. Good afternoon all.

    Sorry for not posting quizzes this weekend. Mostly keeping up-to-date with my son who still has mild symptoms and is self quarantined. Twelve more days until he can be retested.

    The number of cases in FL is rising rapidly. Not unexpected given peoples’ behavior. The growth in the number of cases and deaths in Spain is unspeakable. And my sister and husband, who live in OR, decided to drive to the coast and back. They drove by their favorite fishing spot and people were sitting/standing shoulder-to-shoulder.

    We live in a very social society and I know it’s not easy for many to turn the dial to the full OFF position, but give me a break! What does it take to get the picture!!

    And finally I am bragging … I am truly tackling the 10 year To Do list that we all have. And finally, finally …it’s chilly but so beautiful outside.

    1. I’m very happy to hear your son is doing well. Florida …I really have no words that I can type of say our loud.

      Please no worries about the quiz. You and your son are priorities. And wow on the 10 year list. Nice, Longshot

      1. The Florida behavior on the beaches probably will show their consequences in several days.

        I have to believe a decent percentage of those people are from around the Country. So, they’ll head home to various states and based on the idea that this virus is everywhere, most of them are probably unknowingly infected and if they behaved that way in Florida, I have no expectation they will behave properly at home.

    2. I went for a long walk in the woods today. It’s a pretty open area with many trails and there were a few more cars in the lot than usual (and a couple other parking areas lead into it as well). I will say though that the people that were together were keeping their own distance from each other and when we all passed each other it was at a distance of 6 feet or more, but along with a friendly and often silent greeting. Most people get it. I saw 2 groups that were not complying. They were both clusters of teenagers, one cluster sitting at a picnic table sharing food etc. That stuff is great to be able to do, but this is definitely NOT the time to be doing it. Other than that, it was great out there.

  40. My nieces amazon account was hacked. I have notification for Amex If my card was used without me present and never use a debit card online. But I set up two step verification for amazon. Oddly, I have it set up for everything but Amazon. Not my smartest move. Just a thought for those who are silly like me.

      1. Odd thing is that whoever hacked her account set the two step verification. She could not get in but she did get an email from amazon notifying her of the change.

      1. Yep. Sorry I decided to listen.

        They are going to have people …first responders….return to work earlier. Wearing a mask. THE MASKS WE DONT HAVE.

        And now I know why Fauci isn’t there.

        1. Part of the reckoning when this is over has to be our over reliance on China for manufactured goods. I found four of those N95 masks in my basement last night and on the side of the box “made in China”. Boy did we ever make our bed. Apple and the rest can kiss my ass going forward. A $1,000 iPhone will be a luxury good going forward. And if it’s made in China instead of manufactured here to rebuild our economy, no thank you.

          1. Agree. Outsourcing was never something I agreed with. I did see that China just sent a ton of stuff to Italy. Although one report they ended up in Czech Republic…who knows what to believe. I do know we should have taken this seriously months ago. If I knew to start my prep list, surely our leaders should have

            However the decision to send exposed first responders back using masks that we will then take from hospitals …..

            1. Don’t get me started.
              I almost threw my easy chair through the TV while vomiting after watching that
              press conference.

              1. Im trying really hard to think we need to work together…but I think I discovered words I had no idea existed

    1. Thank you. A ton to digest in this article. I’m thinking hotels are looking foe people now. Maybe a win win if the government steps in.

  43. I saw the press conference. Trump defended his decision not to implement the Defense Production Act despite an outcry from state governors. Sinful!

    1. And I can’t help wonder if Fauci was not there because of the buildup of the rapid test. And I may be very wrong but we need to hear from Fauci

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