Wednesday Forecast

159 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
Low pressure passes south of the region today and tonight keeping the rain threat later today mainly in southern MA southward. A break between systems Thursday and the next one Friday will be a disjointed system with one low center passing harmlessly across southeastern Canada with no impact, and a second one passing to the south with maybe a shot at brief rain again over some southern locations. Another break Saturday before the every-other-day low pressure pattern rolls on with a larger one arriving by early Sunday with more unsettled weather. This one will likely be more complex because it may have mix involved at the start if it’s early enough, and with a low center that may travel right over New England, some air mass changes and temperature contrasts would become likely as well. Fine-tuning to come.
TODAY: Becoming cloudy. Afternoon rain favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Any rain ending. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain or rain showers possible mainly south of I-90. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/rain possible overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain favoring morning, tapering to rain showers afternoon. Highs 50-57 north, 55-62 south. Wind variable 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Low pressure departs March 30 with a few rain showers but a drier trend. Dry March 31. Next low pressure brings a threat of rain (may start as snow/mix) later April 1 into April 2. Drier weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
Cooler/drier April 4. Precipitation threat with low pressure in vicinity April 5-7. Drier again at the end of the period.

159 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  7. Thanks TK.

    It sure looks like the pattern that has carried us through the past 3+ months is collapsing. The AO looks to finally relent to more neutral values with the NAO turning negative. The MJO does remain locked in the warmer phases. But the end of this week/this weekend may be the last hurrah for the Southeast ridge for some time. Would not be surprised if April temperatures turn out near or even a little below average at least through its first half to two thirds. We may get into a very dry stretch also, though models are in good agreement on a storm potential around 4/1-4/3. *Very* early but may have to watch that system for winter weather concerns, more likely inland than towards the coast.

    1. We knew this would be around the time that everything finally breaks down…right as we are entering Spring. Just in time for a raw, nasty April! Hopefully this is temporary and we flip to warmer second half of the month as TK has been hinting as well.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Coastal, to answer your question at the end of the last blog, no I have not hiked Crane Mtn. Have you? It is only about 30 min north of Hadley Mtn where I posted the pictures from our hike on Saturday. We actually considered Crane but there is supposedly a very steep section on that mountain and 30′ ladder near the top. Didn’t have the microspikes with us and didn’t want to risk it knowing there was still snow and ice on the trail and temps were in the 20’s the night before. It’s on my to do list for this summer though.

    1. Yes, I use to hike it as a kid. I have relatives in the Thurman/Warrensburg area. We enjoyed the rope swing on Garnet Lake as well as the hike up Crane with the church group. My uncle has a cabin and sugar house on Sky High Road which brings you to the trail parking lot. We always looked forward toward the ladder climb, though its been 20 years since I hiked last.

      1. Nice! I will have to try it. I have been up to that area skiing at Gore and cross country skiing at Garnet Hill Lodge many times but somehow never managed to get over there.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Not too bad in terms of rain this week. A friend of mine called me on Sunday and said her phone said rain all week. I told not to worry, there will be breaks and even rain-free days.

    Mark’s point on CV is an important one: 1.4% case fatality rate. That is still obviously a concern, as are the growing number of patients in critical care, many of whom are young. But, we’re doing much better than Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, UK … Frankly, analyzing the numbers this morning I don’t expect our system to be overwhelmed by CV OUTSIDE of metro NYC (they are truly overwhelmed there; and I’m still concerned about California). The growth factor is key here, folks, and it’s now hovering just above 1. The same holds in most of Europe. So long as we don’t all take the Liberty University route (they’re going back to classes this week!) I believe we’ll peak within a week or so, and 2-3 weeks from now (with growth factor below 1) be able to gradually return to normal. This will be and should be gradual, with actual normalcy only returning by late summer/early fall. Initially, there will be restrictions on restaurant capacity at first, for example, and concerts/conferences/large venues will still be on hold until some time in June.

      1. totally agree John. And I believe in your travels over there
        at the hospital, you have heard this from medical experts.

        2. Yes indeed & also what we all see on tv from trusted top doctors ( do I need a link ) all employees now ordered to wear a mask while inside . I wish ARod could come back on here & explain this is here for awhile .

          1. It is nice to have Arod here….and you answered your own question.

            That said, I am hoping Joshua is correct. He has also shown a marked understanding of the pattern of pandemics. And we are indeed in uncharted waters so JPD may well be correct also. No one knows for certain. Until now, we have not had cases in Sutton and some surrounding towns. We now have five confirmed by BOH between Sutton, Uxbridge and Douglas and I’m hearing rumblings of two more in Sutton but will stay with one until I see definite confirmation. This is due to expanded testing of course. What it ultimately means, no idea.

    2. Joshua, I honestly believe you are being overly optimistic on when this thing
      peaks. Some experts I have been watching indicate peak would be something
      like Mid-May. Yes, I said mid May.

      I sincerely hope you are correct!!!!

      2. Old salty you & I have seen this spot on & you are right very late spring for peak at the earliest .

      3. I agree with Joshua, things will slowly get back to norm in parts of the country in the coming weeks. It will take time.

        Positive thoughts!

        1. Here is a positive thought.

          Today I and my family are still alive and I am most
          grateful for that. May it continue until this mess is over.

  10. Light showers here now in the Silver City. They seem to be backing in from Plymouth Bay and the eastern shore.

    1. Thank you. I do have a friend in NYC. She has a home in PA and I’m hoping she and her boys have headed there.

      1. My son has a friend in NYC who is in a neighborhood basketball league and a member of his team has contracted the virus.
        Damn this thing sucks!

  13. Vicki during the coronavirus task force briefing yesterday Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birks saying that anyone leaving NYC area should self quarantine for 14 days. I know Governor Desantis of Florida said anyone who is flying there from NY or NJ needs to self quarantine.

    1. Thank you JJ. My friends home in PA is in a very rural area. But this makes absolute sense. On the other hand….the governor of FL doesn’t want people entering but has no problem letting the tons of folks partying under his watch leave. Is there a roll your eyes emoji for word press. 😉

  14. Re: decisions for coming weeks

    I think if the decisions are made with the backing of science and data and the messenger(s) deliver it with confidence and coherent statements, then a vast majority of the country will be on board.

    I think if the decisions are made that contradict with the science and data are saying in that time frame and the messenger(s) deliver it with incoherent statements and inconsistency(from one day to the next), then a vast majority of the country are going to be against it.

  16. All Catholic Churches in the Archdiosese of Hartford will have no mass through April 30th. This will be the first time in my life not going to Mass on Easter. I can’t blame them one bit. So there is one Archdiosese where churches won’t be packed on Easter like Trump wants.

  17. Thank you TK!

    I like the idea of thinking positive and hope and pray we turn the corner soon. My kids want to go back to school and I actually want to be back to work in my office. Like Tom, I hope decisions are made with the backing of science and data and not wishful thinking. We are all in this together and I would sure love to see us more united than divided. Enough is enough.

    1. Overall, I think Baker, Polito and all at the state level have done a great job and shown tremendous leadership. Not saying I agree with every decision, but taken as a whole, Baker/Polito and company make me feel confident in our state’s response.

  20. There’s no evidence to suggest that this pandemic peaks any time soon let alone the ridiculous claim suggested by our so-called leader that our economy opens by Easter. That would be a death sentence. Not to mention more and more young people are flooding our ICUs each day and whilst this group represents a very small percentage of COVID-related deaths, a 17 year old nonsmoking otherwise healthy teen lost its battle to the virus. Additionally, nearly half of our critically ill vented patients are between 20 and 54 years old in this country. We will likely see more than 60,000 infected Americans by days end and ultimately surpass Italy and then China within 7-10 days. We’ve got a long way to go. Be safe everyone!

    1. Thank you so much Arod ( a medical professional on the front lines ( hero if you ask me ) what more do folks need .

  21. To all the medical professionals out there I just want to say thank you for all your hard work and long days your putting in. We will beat this!!!

    3. Amen to beating this. Yes, we will eventually prevail, but it will be a long hard fought battle on our way to triumph.

  22. From Governor Cuomo
    Evidence suggests density control plan may be working:
    On Sun, hospitalizations doubling every 2 days
    On Mon, hospitalizations doubling ever 3.4 days
    On Tues, hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days
    But the virus is STILL spreading quickly. #StayAtHome

    1. Definite drop in new cases in NYC. Lockdowns can work. Very significant development: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf

      Problem is the virus may have shifted east to Long Island where more than a 800 new cases were reported yesterday. New Orleans appears to be spiking as are several other hot spots in the country.

      Vigilance is needed. Can’t let our guard down for a few weeks. But, I do think that we’ll see gradual improvement by late April.

      1. One caveat to keep in mind, NYC, other cities, states, and counties in America all report cases at different times, in different ways (batches versus once a day). This is an unfortunately typical American problem of lack of standardization in reporting. So, we need to stay tuned to see if NYC updates their total number of new cases. I’ve noticed they sometimes do and sometimes don’t.

      2. My cousins daughter and family are on Long Island. Perhaps it is because of testing in part, but you are right that there is a definite increase there.

        Meanwhile. What an amazing leader Gov Cuomo is

      3. Maybe this is why NYC is having so much trouble……..

        GOV. ANDREW CUOMO:
        Sunday at his daily coronavirus press conference, N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo tried again to get people to voluntarily stay at home to prevent the spread of the disease, saying he had been in the city yesterday and saw people out in public spaces and parks like “it was just a bright, sunny Saturday.”

        “I don’t know what I’m saying that people don’t get,” he said. “I was in these parks. You would not know that anything is going on. You would think it was just a bright, sunny Saturday… This is just a mistake. It’s a mistake. It’s insensitive. It’s arrogant. It’s self-destructive. It’s disrespectful to other people.”

        “This is not life as usual. None of this is life as usual. This kind of density, we talk about social distancing, I was in these parks and you would not know that anything was going on,” he also said.

        https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/22/cuomo_arrogant_self-destructive_disrespectful_people_not_taking_quarantine_seriously_are_making_a_mistake.html

  23. The only solution to CV that seems to work so far are tougher minded stay-at-home/lockdowns. It’s unpleasant, but wherever it is implemented, it seems to slow things down.

    I’m not sure I believe every nation is correctly reporting numbers and the reporting methods are most likely not consistent from one country to another, but wherever stay-at-home is seriously being practiced, there seems to be improvement of some sort. Absent a vaccine, it’s the best bet in the tool kit.

    1. Agree. It’s unfortunate, but the way it is.

      I’m trying desperately to be positive. One moment I analyze the data and think it’s going to be okay, the next I’m down in the dumps.

      1. We’re trying to take it one day at a time. I am getting antsy for sure and my wife can’t stand it anymore. Just have to do the best we can.

        This forum certainly helps.

    2. Yes and that is the key. If one isn’t exposed, then one cannot contract it.

      I wonder if there are any documented cases due to contact with groceries
      being delivered to one’s house.

      1. Good question. The Chinese data indicate infectivity is greatest in confined spaces within families. About 80% of infections. I suspect the same in Italy and Spain. While the virus can survive on surfaces for long periods of time it’s evidently fragile if exposed to sun and heat. My guess is its fragility also increases if exposed to the elements. I don’t know.

        Viruses, the ultimate parasite, fascinate me. Some are exceptionally strong and can withstand almost anything, others like HIV are very fragile.

    3. Agree Longshot. Los Angeles is now shutting power and water off for businesses that do not comply. Good for them

      Most important…how is your son?

  24. CVS actually delivered my 2 prescriptions so I didn’t have to visit that petri dish and get infected!!!

    1. Nice. I have two. I’m trying to decide drive through or delivery. But with delivery I don’t have to exchange money or sign…..or did you have to sign?

  25. Tk…is like to second JPDs comment above that this forum helps. Thank you is hardly enough so am sending virtual hugs

  26. Joshua, I totally agree with you. It’s amazing how different people can look at the same data and draw drastically different solutions. I remain encouraged by the numbers and very optimistic that the doomsday scenarios people are throwing out there are not going to materialize. Millions of people are not going to get this. Hundreds of thousands are not going to die. If there were no measures out in place….perhaps. But keep in mind this country is in a virtual lockdown right down! Yes there are pockets of people not obeying but the vast majority are. You are going to see that curve flattening in the next 1-2 weeks. BE OPTIMISTIC folks!!!

  27. And here’s some more positive news….Dow is up 1000 points today after skyrocketing over 2000 points yesterday in its single best day since the 1930’s. In the last 2 days alone, the Dow has eliminated 30% of the coronavirus selloff. Let’s hope this continues!

    1. Formal Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today the US Economy will experience a quick rebound after a “very sharp” recession. He added “the current situation is much closer to a snowstorm than the Great Depression”

      I like that analogy 🙂

      1. I like it too Mark. Same one my Merrill guy used. I looked today and although I am conservatively positioned because of age with little in stocks, I am up a fair amount. I don’t look every day.

  29. For those who are encouraged by the numbers, here is why I proclaim, “Not so fast!” Since testing supplies are not in abundance, the CDC is constantly modifying the protocols as it pertains to who we test. Up until 24 hours ago, we were able to test anyone who was SYMPTOMATIC and either had close contact with someone who tested positive, traveled to areas of the US or other parts of the world with high rates of transmission and/or patients who were considered high risk for severe illness. We were also allowed to test ASYMPTOMATIC patients with confirmed exposure. Today, the mandate has changed. We are now only allowed to test other SYMPTOMATIC healthcare providers, EMS providers or patients who are family members of a COVID positive healthcare worker. It is no longer permissible to test ASYMPTOMATIC patients regardless if they have been exposed. Thus, with more stringent testing guidelines, comes an increase in undetected cases. If cases go undetected, the number of documented confirmed positive cases decline. Fewer tests = fewer reported cases. Therefore, please do not be fooled by what may appear to be a flattening in some areas.

    1. THANK YOU AROD!!

      My God, what a way to run an airline. How the hell do you get control of this thing? This is PATHETIC.

      Sorry, not aimed at the messenger.

    2. I’m sure that is true on the increase in undetected cases, but the vast majority of those asymptomatic people are holed up in their homes like everyone else and not further spreading the virus.

      1. hmmm
        Do they go to the grocery store? Liquor Store? The bank? The pharmacy? That’s how it will keep spreading. And some stillhave to go to work.

        Boston had an EMT test positive and 3 MBTA bus drivers.

        1. Oh and up this way, an infected coronavirus person made
          several bus trips between Boston and New Hampshire.
          How many persons did this bozo infect and how many did those infect and so on….
          As they say: shit happens

        2. They are open but everything else under the sun is closed. I’ve been out to the store and Costco this week and at least from what I saw, people are being careful.

          1. I will tell you that most young people are not hunkered down in their homes. They are still getting together and cross contaminating homes, parties, etc. This may explain why half of our ICU admissions are filled with young COVID-infected US citizens. I see this first hand.

  30. I work around about a dozen folks in the medical field and am friendly with a handful of others. Consensus opinion for the US as a whole: Mid May for the peak. Slow decline after. Of course, like a weather forecast, there is a certain amount of uncertainty dependent on unknowns and whatever the response is by the population day to day. In other words, don’t stop doing what you’re supposed to do because you’re “bored”. Flattening the curve also drags the end out a little, but it’s still the route to go without a doubt.

    Weather comments in a bit…

    1. And May is being optimistic at best. Again, how can we be completely sure if we cannot test everyone like S Korea did?

  31. Keep in mind there’s about a 10-14 day “lag” between when a measure such as aggressive social distancing is enacted and when you actually see the effect, if any, of that measure show up. Because of the changing testing protocols, I’d expect continued fluctuations in the US case numbers, though no doubt they are going up.

    Personally, I’m ~generally~ encouraged by what I’m seeing in the trends. However, we are still playing a bit of a waiting game. I continue to defer to the experts on the best ways to proceed, but I expect things will probably return to normal sooner than most think. FWIW, I have a short trip from EWR-LAX planned about a month from now, which I booked on the cheap a few weeks ago as ticket prices were tumbling. It’s not high priority travel, but at this point I’m fairly optimistic that I’ll be going.

    2. You may be right about things returning to normal sooner than anticipated because our leader wants to open the economy again on Easter regardless of the state of the pandemic, so I can’t say I necessarily disagree on that front. However, I caution you, normalcy does not mean people aren’t critically ill or continuing to die at rates that are equivalent to or exceed current rates.

      1. Definitely, we have to be careful, and I’m not trying to sound the “all clear”. The numbers will get worse in the US. You certainly know more than me. Easter seems fast to me in terms of a complete return to business as usual, though I don’t think it’s realistic to expect the current restrictions to hold in their entirety much beyond then.

      2. If trump does what he is making sounds that he wants to do…it will be a death sentence. He says this against the advice of every health expert. What leader does that? I have to have confidence our governors are going to step in. Bakers closing of schools through April gives me hope that at least we will not listen

  32. I am now experiencing the frustration that TK experiences everyday as it pertains to the majority of folks (NO ONE HERE) who think they can predict the weather based on modelology. It’s similar to some folks who will falsely interpret what appears to be a flattening based on numbers but not based on reality. No one should be encouraged by anything seen right now until it is a known fact that ALL sick people and their respective exposed can be tested.

    I will also add that as the number of undetected and therefore unconfirmed cases continue to increase, isolation decreases which contributes to the continued spread of disease significantly. Just because it’s not reported, it doesn’t mean that hundreds of thousands of people are not infected. In contrast, one of the biggest reasons why S. Korea was GENUINELY able to “flatten the curve” is because of their abundant supply of testing kits and their uncanny ability to trace and isolate those exposed and infected.

    1. I actually have no problem with anyone throwing worst case numbers out there, even though I am confident they will never materialize. If it scares people into isolation and being more careful, then we can be done with this whole ordeal sooner rather than later!

      1. No one can truly “throw” out an accurate or worst case number out there if we can’t truly test everyone. All is welcome to their opinion, but it doesn’t mean it is supported by science. Optimism is most welcome as long as the optimist is fully prepared that their optimism may prove ultimately misguided.

  33. alisonarod I appreciate your comments and being on the front lines you are the person with the most knowledge on this situation.

    2. Thank you from me also, Arod. As I read all of this to catch up, I was thinking exactly what you said about TK and weather frustration.

    1. It is horrific. We will never see rates like that here due to some of the reasons that some have outlined here but also because we aren’t able to test and detect like other countries have been able to do.

      Just because a weather spotter didn’t report that it snowed 10 inches in their town, it doesn’t mean 10 inches didn’t fall.

  36. Mark, the stock market appears to be pricing in what it sees as light at the end of the tunnel. The market may be a bit too optimistic. Let’s see if this happens. I mostly agree with Bernanke. Technically, by the way, a recession is two quarters of negative growth. Q1 will be negative, my guess would be -3% (mostly accounted for my the month of March). Q2 remains to be seen. My guess is 0%. Q3 will show a rebound, but I’m doubtful it’ll be a strong rebound, probably the same muddling around we’ve been doing for 10 years – so, 2% growth.

    I’m allergic to the pronouncement that coronavirus is “destroying the economy.” It’s a temporary shock, but not a structural one like the financial crisis or the depression. There’s a huge difference. [By the way, I do think we need to do some structural things to the economy to make it really sound, but that’s another discussion]. So long as the stimulus or emergency rescue bill focuses on helping those who need it most over the coming 2-3 months – small businesses, retail, restaurants, ordinary Americans – we’ll be okay. Yes, that includes the restaurant down the street that’s really hurting right now. That includes the airlines, too, who, and I agree with Carly Fiorina on this, could simply file for bankruptcy and recover post coronavirus quite rapidly.

    1. Not that you’re doing this but the moment all the “scientists” out there rely on the stock market to positively predict the evolution of this virus, we are all in for it.

      1. Not doing that at all. I’m the last person to say the stock market is necessarily a reliable predictor of the economy, or that it can forecast what will happen to the virus. All I’m saying is the market appears to be pricing in what it perceives as light at the end of the tunnel. As I said, we’ll have to wait and see.

        You make some excellent points on testing. I’ve written about this issue.

        My larger point throughout has been that the U.S. healthcare system, however deeply flawed in some ways, is much better funded and prepared than, say, Italy and Spain. You may even throw in the Netherlands into that mix. They’re basically already maxed out of intensive care units at 665 (their full capacity is twice that (country of 17 million), but they want to reserve some IC for non Covid-19 patients). Right now 665 are in intensive care, 50% of whom are under 60 and very, very sick. So, yes, I take this seriously.

        1. Tell that to my wife who works in the ICU at the Brigham and to all the other healthcare workers about how much better prepared and funded we are when all she is permitted is one surgical mask every three days. That is where people are severely misguided. Our preparedness couldn’t have been worse as demonstrated by the shortage of ICU beds, ventilators, personal protective equipment and tests in this country. All of that is contributing to this crisis.

          1. I’m truly sorry about what your wife is dealing with in the ICU. Please note, I did not say we’re sufficiently prepared, it’s just that I do think we’re relatively well prepared compared to some other countries. I could be totally wrong about this.

      1. My concern is the number of persons walking around out there
        up and down the food aisles and waiting in the check out lines
        who have this damn virus just spreading it like wild fire.

      2. You may be right about some who rationalize it.

        This number of new cases – thanks, JP Dave, for sending – surprised me, and not in a good way. Massachusetts is quickly becoming a hot spot. Virtually tripled the number of cases in 4 days. I’d say that’s disconcerting.

        Arod, I also extend my thanks to you and all medical professionals who are on the front lines, so to speak. I have siblings who are medical professionals. It’s tough.

    1. Lamont closed them till April 20 in CT but left the door open to them being closed the whole rest of the year.

          1. We, at Middleborough High, are on a semester schedule. I just got off a virtual department meeting and I already have students emailing me about the inequity between students who took the course last fall and those taking it now.

            For example, the students who had Spanish I last fall and took the final on January 28 will have a distinct advantage versus those taking it now.

            I/we have no answers to this question. We won’t be the only district dealing with this. For example, students going from Grade 3 to Grade 4 in August won’t be prepared for the Grade 4 curriculum as it is stands now.

            1. Worrisome. It has to apply to all. Are you having virtual assignments? Sutton HS starts next week. I don’t think anything is in place for K-8 yet. And how do they dares kids on IEPs?

              1. That’s the reason we can’t grade student work, Vicki. It’s only enrichment work of material already taught. I am thinking we will have to create projects between now and May 4 that will be graded very liberally.

                But it is an inequity issue with students with IEPs and 504s who might also have aides or ESPs to help them to be successful on their work.

  39. Here in CT Lamont on a radio interview on WCBS New York said public schools in CT would likely be closed for the rest of the school year.

    1. Some of the regions that have set up decent online learning are just opting to stay with it for the remainder of the year. I respect that choice.

          1. We are not grading either. Work is marked 2,1,0. 2 completed, 1 partially completed and 0 not done. This is for HS

          2. My sons virtual classroom is going well . 8:30 – 12:30 everything is graded . This is for the private school

    1. I agree, Vicki. But I’d much rather be discussing and getting excited about a storm!!! 🙂

  41. Arod….I keep reading not to take ibuprofen with virus and then I read that it is all right. Do you have information on that? Thank you.

    1. Vicki, it actually has been widely known that anti inflammatory medication like ibuprofen accelerates viral process thus increasing morbidity and mortality. It has been ill advised since 2011 to avoid ibuprofen to treat flu and flu-like associated fever. So if you, a friend or a loved one requires something for pain or fever control, I strongly recommend Tylenol only as long as there are no contraindications. Of course you should always consult your physician before accepting any of my medical advice.

          1. Yes. It’s a powerful anti inflammatory which could potentially lead to patient demise if used during a COVID associated illness.

                1. You’re probably okay if you’re not battling a viral illness but again, I’d speak with your PCP. Gout hurts!

                2. Thank you. Will revisit with rheumatologist and pcp. Only my second flare …wouldn’t ya know.

                  I sure appreciate your advice. Be safe!

  42. Today’s laugh:

    I saw this on CBS This Morning and I found it on Twitter. This Italian priest tried to live stream morning prayers on the parish Facebook page (as many houses of worship are doing). Unfortunately, Father forgot to turn off the silly filters on his camera phone. Here’s the result:

    https://twitter.com/KiwiEV/status/1242267839236583427

  43. Today’s musical selection:

    Today is Elton John’s (the REAL Captain Fantastic) and Aretha Franklin’s birthday. EJ is 73 and the Queen would have been 78.

    It was 50 years ago that Elton and Bernie Taupin wrote their first hit, “Border Song”. Aretha also recorded the same song in the same year.

    I thought I had seen every Elton John video, but here’s a rare treat that I found this week of Elton and Aretha singing “Border Song” together from 1993.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoTzWvqPNrk

    1. I split the work-time music between those 2 today as work’s “DJ”. Started with the Queen of Soul, finished with Sir Elton.

  44. Message to Vicki.

    Thanks for asking about my son. He is doing well and continues to have mild symptoms. Still in self-quarantine. He can be re-tested one week from tomorrow. We are hopeful!

  45. Weather: I have nothing to add to the discussion above.

    Reminder: Stay civil. Respect opinions. Everybody has something to learn in all of this. Nobody is above that. But knowing as many folks in the medical field as I do, I’d listen to the ones here. They and the CDC are our best sources of information.

    Have a good evening everyone. Positive thoughts…

  46. To Arod’s point on changes in testing. See below. I must say I’m dumbfounded. Found out from a NYC official who I called just now that ~5k of 12k patients yesterday in NY tested positive: 42% is an astoundingly high percentage. In Europe, testing of patients with symptoms yields 6%-8% positives. But, because NY now ONLY tests hospitalized patients and severely ill ones we have no idea what’s really going on in the population. It’s like doing public health policy with blinders on. Skewed NY numbers imply that many more have the virus and can potentially infect others:

    https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1241475460195893251/photo/1

      1. I think his comments are crazy. If we can learn anything from this it’s that the German and South Korean models work. Sure, I’m a little skeptical of the German data. But, overall it works. Test as many people as early as you can. Isolate those who test positive along with their coworkers and family.

        By the way the darn worldometer doesn’t update properly. Nor does Johns Hopkins. Very frustrating. I wish the U.S. had a central repository at CDC like other countries. Instead it’s a hodgepodge, chaotic dataset that’s basically always inaccurate. As a researcher I have to now go to each state or municipality to collate data. The new cases in NYC – even with the more stringent test criteria that only test for severe cases – surged to 4,119. This has not been updated on the worldometer site. I contacted them. Maybe they’ll update. Here’s the NYC data for today. Grim. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf

        1. Good. My gut told me exactly what you just said

          Fauci on cuomo just said he believes this may come back. Southern Hemisphere is in its colder period. We know there are typically three waves to a pandemic. He said we need the vaccine NOW before we see second wave here

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