Thursday Forecast

116 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)
High pressure brings fair weather today. A trough of low pressure passes through tonight and early Friday, moisture-starved, with only a threat of a little rainfall closer to the South Coast, before another high moves in with more dry weather later Friday and Saturday. A broad and more moisture-laden low pressure area will bring wet weather to the region Sunday, with upper level low pressure hanging around behind it Monday, keeping the weather somewhat unsettled with a threat of additional rain showers. We’ll have to watch the start of the precipitation for this system late Saturday night, if it’s in early enough, as temperatures will be marginally cold enough for mix/snow for a brief time in some areas.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with some rain possible near the South Coast, then clearing. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/rain possible overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coastal areas.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to showers/drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
High pressure brings drier weather March 31. Low pressure approaches then moves through the region later April 1 into April 2 with a threat of rain that may start as snow/mix for some areas. Drier weather follows. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)
Precipitation threat with low pressure in vicinity April 5-7. Drier again later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

116 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. The part that would be difficult to have happen again would be the depth of the cold air, as that was a powder snow with incredibly cold temps for April.

      1. You know TK. He never rules out snow in early April. šŸ˜‰

        Of course I wasnā€™t thinking necessarily that depth of cold, just cold enough for snow itself perhaps.

  9. Captain / Tom/ other teachers…. Just a curious question and no hurry! Will you eventually go to virtual classes to introduce new subjects?

    1. The latest email to us this morning was to continue providing math opportunities that allow students to keep concepts learned fresh.

      Also, that they are awaiting guidance from the Mass DESE in the next couple of days regarding introducing new concepts and that we would be informed once the DESE describes how we should move forward.

  10. Good morning, a lot of you that I have on facebook friends just got an invitation to like the UVI Master of Marine and Environmental Science, page. The 2019 cohort is carrying out a social media campaign on Stony Coral Tissue Loss disease (SCTLD). It is a very potent coral disease impacting the Caribbean and Florida. This campaign will run from April 12th to April 19th with each day covering a sub-topic on SCTLD. Please Follow, Like and share our page. #SCTLDUVI2020 https://www.facebook.com/uvimmes/ you can also go to my personal facebook and see a post I made. There will also be a twitter and Instagram and will let you know about those as well when those groups are ready.

  11. Macs brother sent this. Dr stupid I thought of youWe take an extra step with two people doing the cleaning ….one cleaning and second who has not touched item taking. First person holds corner of item with a wipe. Yes excessive but we have the time. We also are not buying loose items like fruit and no takeout
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps

    1. My wife viewed this last night and told me about it today.
      We have been doing almost all that and will implement some more
      today as we have a few more items arriving later this afternoon.

      Personally, I would like to see data on documented cases transmitted
      via the food brought into one’s house. This is an INSANE way to live.
      I feel that video might be a tad over the top.

      My wife supervises the food being brought in by me, so I am NOT allowed
      any shortcuts that I might otherwise take.

      Last order, I took individual items from our front porch and brought them up.
      Non-perishables are placed in our make shift quarantine pantry under
      the attic stairs. Perishables are wiped down with clorox wipes and placed
      in a quarantine section of the fridge. All sorts of fun.

      Best to have more smaller orders, else one would either go nuts or get
      physically exhausted.

      I am having good luck with delivery dates/times from Shipt.com

      1. That is what we have been doing. It seems like a lot but Iā€™d rather not take chances. Thanks for shipit. I have not tried. I signed up for thrive but donā€™t need anything yet.

    2. Funny I was going to share this earlier! Extra steps sure stink but better than the alternative. I have been doing almost precisely this for a month now but have been a bit more rigorous. Other things that I do of note:
      – take shoes off at the entryway of the house
      – shower and change clothes if I must go to work
      – wipe down all mail. This includes even the newspaper we get delivered.
      – wipe down doorknobs and other high touch areas (toilet handle, knobs in kitchen, refigerator handle) every other day.

      We could leave some stuff out on the back porch if need be but wiping down seems to be the best thing. As mentioned it is indeed a pain to add these extra steps to the process of living but it beats the alternative.

      1. Yup. We do that as well, except we leave the mail sit for
        2 days in a quarantine location. And I don’t leave the house,
        so not washing my clothes, except when dirty. šŸ™‚

      2. Wise man. I had the sense from a comment you made the other day that you do this. We do the very same. But we do many of these things in general when there is anyone ill in the house. Not wiping food and mail. But doorknobs and light switches and handles etc. We never wear shoes in house. But that goes back to my youth.

  12. Philip…

    To answer your question about the April snow threat, not the same pattern right now. It would be more of a marginal situation.

    1. USA has surpassed Italy in total # cases. Approaching China’s numbers, certain to surpass that as well.

  17. Stock market soaring again today with the Dow up 1000 points. Now up almost 4,000 points on the week! This all despite the jobless claims report that came out this AM indicating a record high 3.3 million people have filed for unemployment. Really bizarre but good news nonetheless.

  18. I’m fascinated by the math with respect to the timeline of the results.

    If I’ve listened correctly to the medical folks, the positives you get today are what really was going on 10-14 days ago.

    So, today dates back to March 12th to March 16th, about the time things SLOWLY began to transition to social distancing. And, I think the 16th to the 20th was done half-ass, only this week has been better.

    So, with these large increases, it really hits home to me that while, thank goodness, we kicked social distancing in around the 13th, there was unfortunately a huge spread already when the social distancing began.

    1. I think, since better social distancing has taken place this week, the 23rd thru 26th, hints of it won’t show up in daily new cases until April 2nd thru April 9th, if you apply a rough 10-14 day idea.

    2. And this is why I am hopeful that within the next 10-14 days, you are going to start see the rate of new cases being reported going down, as Italy is now seeing.

      1. Perhaps. I think it will definitely slow the increases, but our highest daily increase in cases might need a bit more time after that, since I think Italy’s lockdown has been a bit longer than ours.

      2. In the absence of widespread testing, a decline in the number of ā€œreportedā€ new cases has zero credibility until all patients have access to testing. Currently in NYC, only critical patients ill enough to be hospitalized are being tested. That means millions of carriers and those with mild to moderate disease will not be detected or confirmed thereby falsely flattening the curve. I cannot overstate this enough.

  19. More positive news from Italy…

    Fourth day in a row the reported number of new cases has gone DOWN.

      1. This an excerpt of an article I just saw on Fox News….

        The rate of contagion in Italy, meanwhile, slowed for the fourth day in a row Wednesday. The countryā€™s Civil Protection Agency said there were 57,521 active cases of COVID-19 in Italy, which was 3,491 more than Tuesday. The number of infections rose by 3,612 Tuesday, while on Monday it had spiked by 3,780 cases and on Sunday by 3,957 cases since the day prior.
        In total, Italy recorded 74,386 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, a figure that includes both active cases and those whoā€™ve died, according to Johns Hopkins University.

        1. Thanks ! Very good, hopefully the decreases will grow larger in change as well with each subsequent day.

  20. I think I like the math timeline stuff because I’ve always been fascinated by seeing light from stars at night that could be from hundreds of years ago or the sunlight that reaches earth left the sun 9 minutes ago.

  24. Mark, the news on the stock market is good. Many of us rely on 401k’s for retirement. Plus, if the markets can sustain a comeback it bodes well for the overall economy. My guess is that investors look past today’s jobless claims as a temporary phenomenon.

    Unfortunately, however, we’re not out of the woods with respect to the virus. You’re right, Mark, that Italy was improving for a few days (albeit still really bad). But, today, an inexplicable surge of new cases as well as 712 more deaths. Covid-19 has accounted for almost one-third of all deaths (all-cause mortality) in Italy for the past month. I downplayed the virus early on. I’m no longer doing that, at least not in the horrible hotspots that exist around the globe, including metro NY. For the latest data, check out https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Important reminder that U.S. data comes in in higly-pigly fashion, as states and counties submit data sort of when they want to (thankfully, NY and MA are consistent; NY does 2 batches a day at 9am and 5:30pm, usually; MA 1 at 4pm).

    By the way, it’s beautiful outside. Refreshing. Clear. I will so miss these days when it’s 95F in July.

    1. Joshua. A big THANK YOU to you. It takes a big person to have a change of heart about something of this magnitude. To your point, in case you did not see what I wrote above, here it is again. Iā€™m sorry for the repeat.

      In the absence of widespread testing, a decline in the number of ā€œreportedā€ new cases has zero credibility until all patients have access to testing. Currently in NYC, only critical patients ill enough to be hospitalized are being tested. That means millions of carriers and those with mild to moderate disease will not be detected or confirmed thereby falsely flattening the curve. I cannot overstate this enough.

      1. Arod thank you for keep updating here . So many folks not here just donā€™t get it this thing is here for some time . Stay safe Arod & thank you .

    1. Great article again Joshua. I agree, when we open things back up, it cant be too soon and needs to be gradual and systematic. And clearly the restrictions in some of the harder hit areas are not going to be able to be lifted nearly as quickly as the restrictions on others. Ere on the side of caution as none of us want to go through another lockdown. In the end, the economy will eventually recover and most people will be back to work.

  26. Based upon we are now seeing above and below the equator, we are expecting a second outbreak of the Coronavirus come fall and winter. There appears to be evidence of seasonal fluctuations.

    2. I’m especially worried about the developing nations. In spite of speculation that the virus doesn’t survive well in heat and sun I fear it will inflict a lot of pain in Africa and South America when all is said and done. I’ve been tracking the data there and the case fatality rate is off the charts; as in 12%-18% in some nations. Of course, a lot of this has to do with lack of testing in these countries. But still, those who get critically ill in those countries have a high chance of dying.

      Italy and Spain remain mysteries in terms of their very high case fatality rates. They’re certainly testing more people now than ever before. Yet, the death rates there have not gone down.

      1. The onset of spring and summer could give the impression that the virus has been successfully contained only for infections to increase again during the 2020-2021 winter. That would give an epidemic curve similar to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919.

    1. With all the planning involved in that, it’s no surprise and a good decision given the circumstances. I really think all (with possibly a few exceptions) of the folks running the big events and leagues have done the best they can do given the circumstances and I applaud them.

  31. Where was this negative NAO all winter and the AO trending toward neutral around that time.

    1. Gotta love it. At least we may have something interesting to track and talk about in the weather department. The constant virus doom and gloom talk on this blog right now is too much.

      1. We have had some early April snow events here . April 1982 April Fools Blizzard 97 April 96 where it snowed during the Yankees home opener and April 2018 where the Yankees home opener was snowed out.

    1. It’s a “stay at home order” which doesn’t actually prohibit people from leaving their homes. It’s not a “shelter in place”. There is a difference.

      1. Yes. My mistake. But now are there fewer businesses allowed to open and serve the public other than stores and pharmacies?

        1. Yes. It’s essentially the same as Massachusetts, other than NH beaches close and so far the MA ones remain open (and maybe a few other slight differences), but they did it generally to align with their neighbors (VT & MA).

        2. As long as it an essential service it can stay open and restaurants can continue to operate take out and delivery.
          If you go to the state website it should tell you what is open and what is not.

    2. Just talked to my brother and sister in law and yep they do. But as TK said it is pretty much same as ours.

  33. JJ, I was thinking the same thing, where the heck were you in January and February when we `needed’ you most, negative NAO? Darn southeast ridge. Now you decide to depart.

    Btw, there will be some serious heat brewing in Texas. With a large and still cold Canadian air mass to our north I’m concerned about tornado potential in the regular hotspots.

  34. 100,000 cases were confirmed in the first three months of the outbreak. The next 100,000 happened in just 12 days. The third took four days. The fourth, just one-and-a-half. Not an encouraging trend despite the lack of testing.

  35. Thank you, TK, and Good Afternoon to all…

    SSK: I have a quick question, if I may ask:

    Have you heard anything about your son’s trip to Europe during Spring Break?
    Are you going to be reimbursed for the trip?

    I got concerning news from my school that the cost my son’s Senior Trip to Florida may not be reimbursed even though we purchased travel insurance. I was told that “we have significant challenges with reimbursement because Florida is fine and dandy.”
    I am sure that statement is from the company in Florida and not our school officials.

    We will let this play out. It wouldn’t surprise me that we will be involved in a class action suit to get our money back.

  37. AlisonArod I am glad you could chime in on the article I posted and if you have more thoughts please post them. I have enjoyed reading your posts on this blog throughout this whole thing.

    1. Hi JJ. Iā€™m happy to hear youā€™re getting something out of my comments. They are not meant to frighten anyone. Nor do I wish to illustrate only the doom and gloom. When there is something positive to report of significance, Iā€™ll be happy to report it. My role in healthcare is to educate the public even if that means being the bearer of bad news or reporting something that someone does not want to here. Denial is a dangerous thing. Iā€™m happy to contribute to this blog during a very difficult time.

      1. Thank you to you and all those on the front lines for us and what are doing and what you will continue to do. I want to hear honesty when it comes to this.

  38. A cautiously but decisively optimistic tone from Dr. Birx at the daily briefing today. Basically saying that the extreme predictions are so far not panning out and the situation is not as bad as some media has indicated (i.e., NYC is not ā€œoverwhelmedā€). This is a good thing! And she certainly knows her stuff. Once again this is not to give the all clear, but additional validation that we are ~generally~ on an encouraging track.

    Also, letā€™s keep in mind that no matter what, the measures weā€™ve taken should not be looked back on as a waste once this is over. Itā€™s the opposite. The numbers are staying relatively in check because of those actions. The situation remains fluid and all the experts agree that we certainly should not let our foot off the gas yet in terms of containing this thing.

    2. Thatā€™s what I took from the press conference as well. Was it the UK where the prediction was 500,000 infected had been reduced to 20,000? Thatā€™s a huge drop. Plenty of ICU beds available in NYC. Hopefully the fear mongering on social – news media and here will settle down soon. Looks like it got to Joshua earlier today who had previously shared a more positive view on our situation. Continue social distancing and wash them hands and we will be alright.

      1. Again, denial wonā€™t make this virus go away. I guess my friends who work in NYC as ER and ICU attending physicians who plead everyday for additional ICU beds and respirators have no merit and would have less knowledge than Dr. Birx who watches from Washington. Laughable IMHO, but what do I know?

  39. If you would like to engage in a debate with somebody that is a significant disagreement, that will have to be done privately. I am happy to deliver email addresses to those interested if they don’t want them to be public.

    No confrontational tones toward anybody, please. Not naming names, but we’ll just make sure that is clear. There is no need to comment on this post. You can contact me privately if you need any further info or any questions answered. For now, please use the email tk8888@hotmail.com if you need to contact me. Thanks šŸ™‚

    1. Agree. SSK and I took our discussion off of whw the other day and I feel we came to a good agreement. Everyone has been wonderful with very rare exceptions

  41. I was just out getting a couple shots of a crescent moon & Venus in the western sky. They will be closer together tomorrow but still nice as the clouds dance around them this evening.

    1. Still waiting for that glimpse of morning light when I walk out the door for work by 6:00 am. šŸ™

  42. To everyone on WHW, I try to stay even-keeled and not let my emotions or politics get in the way. When your day job is data analysis – and this applies to meteorologists as well – there are almost always going to be multiple ways of interpreting the data. You may even favor a particular model (like GFS or EMCF for mets; or some health model for epidemiologists and health economists) for its recent track record. With respect to Covid-19 my views have changed. Not radically. But, I now do express alarm about multiple countries in Europe, NOT to be fear-mongering, but to inform people about the facts on the ground there and what could occur here (and in fact is happening to some degree in NYC, New Orleans, and other locales).

    As expected, I’ve been criticized by people on the left and right for my data-driven and sometimes evolving views. It’s unfortunate that politics gets in the way. By way of illustration, I reported the fact that the U.S. now sits atop the league table in terms of confirmed cases and got several emails from conservative folks who “didn’t trust the Chinese data on the Wuhan virus, it’s got to be way more than 81,000 cases over there.” Then, I reported the positive news that in spite of sitting atop the league table the U.S. healthcare system – warts and all – is coping relatively well with the very sick patients, as evidenced the low case fatality rate. Well, wouldn’t you know it, I got criticized by liberals with statements like “our system doesn’t do well, look at what’s happening in New York.” I guess I can’t win. Unless I take a political position on a disease – and I refuse to do that; it’s a virus (novel coronavirus) and a disease (Covid-19), not a social issue – some people just don’t like hearing what I have to say.

    I don’t like echo chambers. It’s why I prefer reading the Wall Street Journal to the New York Times. Not because I’m conservative. I’m not. I’m slightly left of center. But because I want to hear other opinions and perspectives. I know that mine are imperfect, or need fine-tuning with different data points or perspectives. It’s all about balance.

    2. Please excuse that I am laughing heartily. I run right and left of center. I donā€™t have a party….never have. Have probably voted more R than D but have been too often called conservative by liberal folks and liberal by conservative folks. Laugh at it…..common sense supersedes party every darned time.

      Keep on being you. Moderates are what we need and what the founders intended

    3. Iā€™ve always found your posts to be extremely informative and fair. Heck, Iā€™ve learned a thing or two from you. Thereā€™s nothing wrong with a little diversity as long as itā€™s supported by facts (and you have plenty of those) – not wishful thinking based on a meritless hunch just because it makes you feel better to be adversarial.

    4. I don’t chat politics often (and obviously we don’t debate them here) but if my political views were compared to a 2 lane road, I’d be stopped for erratic driving. šŸ˜‰

      I usually just sum it up by telling people that I don’t belong to a political party (which I don’t) and that I have a very, very open mind. I want people to believe what they believe, and do what they want to do, so long as they don’t harm others. I don’t think that’s much to ask of humanity and also very simple to do. šŸ™‚

  43. Iā€™m hearing VT closed school for rest of year. One individual in touch with reality. Now effort can hopefully go toward finding options for kids to learn new lessons.

      2. Thankful for ā€œremote learningā€. If this was 20+ years ago, students would have probably had to either go to summer school or be kept back a grade.

        1. Yes. I have thought many times lately about negative comments in regard to social media and technology. I never know why we tend to focus on negatives but social media and tech have so many wonderful positive. And to add….we are seeing many positives throughout this. Angels on earth

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