Thursday Forecast

95 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
A large ocean storm southeast of New England will do a broad cyclonic loop and send lobes of moisture into southeastern New England with periods of rain and breezy to windy conditions through Friday, before things start to transition back to a more west-to-east flowing pattern over the weekend and early next week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 41-48. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 37-44. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain.. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
West to east flow in the weather pattern but broad low pressure crossing the region may bring a rain shower risk for a few days mainly early to mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
Trending cooler again, need to watch storm track to determine impact ranging from just rain showers to a steadier rain/mix situation developing especially early to mid period.

95 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    3. I always take info from fox news with a grain of salt. That said after doing some additional research this does seem promising. More trials would need to be carried out to know the true efficacy of the drug combo – he was working with a small sample size – because the cocktail could be lethal to some in regards to side effects and it is important to try to draw the distinction there.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Tj, you asked about Chinese manipulation of data. Yes, I believe they first tried to hide the problem in late December and early January. The authorities made a martyr of a Wuhan doctor, aged 34, who died from Covid-19 in early February. I’m sure that in the early stages there were more cases and deaths than reported. However, once the Chinese government admitted there was a major problem they enforced a very stringent nationwide lockdown and began reporting more plausible and realistic data. Even in places with few known cases Americans, who work in China and couldn’t return home, have been writing that the stay at home order was so strict that no-one ever left their apartments. This has effectively beaten back the virus. I do believe that. Cities have reopened. Life is returning to normal.

    I’m writing a piece for Forbes on coronavirus and dictatorships – its focus will be on information and transparency.

    1. Thanks Joshua. I agree. We did know in mid December even here. I’ve said before, that is when I dug my pandemic list of to dos out and started with things like my meds. In the first few days of January I started looking for masks. The N95s were already gone. I was, however, thinking and hoping all along the same would happen as other pandemic scares, and it would not get to this.

      I’d love to read your article. The last was fascinating

    2. Wow!!! If this is true, I take bake any negative comment I ever made against
      that man! This is Wonderful!!!!!

    2. This may be a shot for the ages. I only wish it were January. This thing has
      too much warmth with it.

  9. I apologize if I’m repeating. This just warms my heart.

    We have two young boys …maybe 7 or 8….in the neighborhood who are friends. Each afternoon they stand across the street from each other and talk and laugh and make the best of what is not close to what their best should be. What an inspiration they are.

    1. This is in TK’ time period for being on the lookout, so it may not
      necessarily be totally out of the question.

      I’d like it 150 miles to the South, but we KNOW that’s not happening.

      1. We don’t really know that it isn’t happening. That scenario is very much in the table based on the pattern around that time.

        Climatology odds are not in our favor, but weather pattern odds may be a little more so.

  11. My mentor and first boss in the weather business and his wife were very close friends with the Robert Kraft and his wife. What we see in the media just scratches the surface of how kind and generous the Krafts are. Rest in Peace Myra and also my mentor Peter.

    1. This is why I react when people find fault with sports figures and folks in the entertainment business. I know first hand from Ted what is done behind the scenes because these folks are not doing it for recognition

  12. 12z NAM, if my eyes don’t deceive me, showing multi inch rains somewhere between Marshfield and Falmouth, MA

    2. All of the models are indicating pretty much the same thing, so more than others, but they all point to a good soaking.

  14. Vicki,
    The hydroxychloroquine (antimalaria drug) and azithromycin (same antibiotic in a z-pak) is very promising and scientists have had this preconceived notion for some time now. While there isn’t adequate data for FDA approval due to small sample sizes of patients, there is certainly promise as Coastal has alluded to. It should be noted; however, that this medication combo will not satisfy everyone due to risk of sudden cardiac death and medication allergies, for example. In other words, people who are allergic to either medication would not be candidates for such treatment. Also, folks with certain underlying cardiac disease would face contraindications. Scientists will need to continue studies including double blind and cohort studies with much larger sample sizes before FDA approval and mass production by pharmaceutical manufacturers occur. We will also need to identify alternative treatment regimens to suit populations who are allergic to the aforementioned medication combo. We always knew this treatment combination had promise from in vitro trials, but it has also been known that a definitive cure and/or vaccination that is readily available to US citizens (unless enrolled in a trial) could take a year or more. There is even a physician in California who has discovered antibody treatment that would provide immunity for up to 8 weeks to healthcare workers and even a cure for the virus. We are certainly on track for an eventual ending of the pandemic but not before many more people die, unfortunately. Yes, this could become a game a changer LATER, but nothing changes NOW. We must remain vigilant and continue to practice strict social distancing. We cannot let our guards down based on this information. I am concerned that announcing a definitive treatment that is likely many months away could instill delusion into the minds of our citizens leading to more complacency and ultimately more fatalities.

    3. As usual accurate information from the medical expert Arod . I’ve also heard many of these doctors who have been speaking daily say it would be beneficial down the road not so much now . Some of the experts have mentioned it coming back again .

  15. Not that I want to give the NHC any ideas and I know the system is cold core, but there is some low-top convection around the center and it is going to loop right along the path of the Gulf Stream.

    Sub-tropical characteristics to this system, now or in the next couple of days?

  16. I hope its ok to post about the weather.

    The posts from other bloggers on Covid 19 are amazingly good and I figure I can play the role of offering weather stuff in case anyone needs a brief distraction 🙂 🙂

    1. Hahaha. Nope. Not ok

      Now if you want to partner with captain and give some lessons on how much parents can really do to homeschool…..that works. Although, I know teachers are as frustrated as parents. New territory and everyone is doing an awesome job trying to figure it out

      Oh……JK above of course. I enjoy seeing weather

      1. My sons school has done amazingly well with the virtual classroom & they we’re very quick putting it all together . He goes Monday- Thursday with Friday’s off . Term 3 ends tomorrow with report cards to follow .

    2. I really enjoy your insight as it pertains to meteorology. You’re a natural so please keep the comments coming.

        1. Thanks Tom…..I’m working on it. Just colored and cut hearts for windows and the same with a HOPE sign

  17. The flowers look lovely. The birds are busy building homes for their families, or, if lazy, simply using time shares. But, in reality, what we’re experiencing is an extension of winter. Raw, unsettled, cold rain, with the possibility of snow in parts of New England next week.

    I’m sorry to say I have no good news to report today on Covid-19. The European data just doesn’t look good, with a few exceptions that are mostly smaller nations. Flattening of the curve in many countries, which means increases in new cases are growing at small rate or stabilizing, but still stubbornly high absolute numbers of new cases. The problem with these tens of thousands of new cases is that they’re adding to an already overburdened system. IC capacity is being expanded in a makeshift manner across Europe. Even Germany is now seeing an increase in case fatality rate.

    In the U.S. the numbers are frankly dismal. Add Orange County in California to the worrisome hotspots, as if we needed another. In the country, we have at least 15 hotspots to be concerned about. And this includes metro Boston.

    In New England, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont have done okay. This is to be expected in some ways as they are rural states, and most rural states in America have escaped a major influx of contagion. Among the Southern states in New England, surprisingly, Rhode Island has done fairly well.

  18. Well, one bright spot gleaned from European data which just came in 5 minutes ago: France has the lowest number of new cases (~2,100) in several weeks. Down from 7,500 new cases several days ago. Oh, I just hope this trend can continue. To be sure, the French lockdown is an actual lockdown, with police enforcement with the use of drones and patrols – in cruisers, horseback, on foot – dispersing any group of more than 2 and asking people who are out and about where they are going and what they are doing. This would not be feasible here. I do respect and understand that. Americans don’t accept that kind of surveillance or government control. The problem is that without actual enforcement on the ground we’re going to be the last industrialized nation facing a prolonged and painful epidemic.

    2. A national lockdown is far less feasible for the US landmass size. Here is france compared to the US: https://imgur.com/a/Jmo0UdR

      A lot of the midwest states are already disparately populated so having those states locked down and patrolled would be impossible and a waste of manpower. Locking down coastal and major metro states would be the best bet but as was said liberty over death in america. Double edged sword.

    3. At this point I am totally for a national lockdown (approximately 4 weeks??? educated guess at best). I do realize and agree with it’s a lot harder to implement and enforce it, but I still think people respond to labels and words at least to some degree, so you’d probably get at least a significant amount of compliance, enough to make a difference and further flatten the dreaded curve. So I say let ‘er rip effective no later than Monday April 6 and evaluated as we get half way through an initial 4 week preliminary period. At least giving the public something to grasp onto without getting them too positive about it will help more than just leaving it completely unknown.

      1. Sadly I think most Americans are basically begging for this. And the reason is that too many just do not care about anyone other than themselves

        Baker will close all state-managed coastal parking lots at noon tomorrow. Just a shame for people who were going in order to find peace.

  20. For anyone wanting a good laugh before bed – there’s a channel I’ve been watching on youtube for research for a podcast I want to create. It has every available episode of “What’s My Line” (a show where the panelists would guess what line of work the person did.) This episode with Ed Sullivan as the special guest is so much fun. Give the whole episode a watch or just fast forward to the Ed Sullivan part: https://youtu.be/jvEV8zGMNRo

  21. That was funny above. 🙂

    While I continue to encourage your discussion about C-19, I also definitely encourage weather chat! Weather doesn’t take any days off, and as we know it also has a direct relationship to this and other health-related things. If there is ever a nosy subject, it’s weather. It needs to get involved in everything. 😛 I don’t post too often about C-19 and things related to it. I prefer to focus on what I need to do and generally follow the news from trusted sources, which also includes a couple of our health-knowledgeable folks here. And while I agree with Joshua that while at this time we only see glimmers of hope among a sea of pretty nasty numbers, and a storm of a different kind will need to endure that will last far longer than any spring blocking pattern, I continue to feel optimistic about when we come out of this, not time-wise, but just when it happens, having a better approach to many things. Again, I just hope we are smart enough to use what we have learned. There are alot of back-to-basics aspects of life that have been thrown right in our faces without so much as a few days’ warning, while lasting far longer than a few days, that I think we can learn from and take with us going forward. I’m optimistic about that as well. Again, never losing sight of the saddening number of casualties that have been and unfortunately will still be. That’s painful to realize, but it’s real. 🙁

    But I don’t want to end this post with a sad face, so I am going to add this positive note. After 2 delays, mom’s back to treatment, feeling great, and has 7 visits left to go. Doctor thinks they are about to declare victory, but will not do so officially until a follow-up after the last treatment. 🙂

    1. That’s great news TK. Glad mom is about to prevail. If you prefer that I limit posts to weather related topics, I respect that.

      1. No No You don’t have to limit to weather. I opened this forum up to discussion about the current crisis so people could talk about it. I understand that sometimes it can make it seem a little doom & gloom but it was still something I felt needed to be done.

        A few days ago I did get a little overwhelmed with some of the tension in here but that was really just my own stubbornness letting a bunch of stuff outside of here build up and then added that on top of it.

        I tend to handle things well, in general, compared to years ago, but there are still times when stuff can make me snap a bit. 😉 But I took a few deep breaths and all is good. I definitely feel that I have the right idea keeping this open to that besides weather. Again I’ll focus mostly on weather, myself. Your health knowledge is highly respected here. There will come a time when we can focus more on the blog’s main purpose. But for now I think of it this way. One example that pops to mind: If a car manufacturer can stop making vehicles and make PPE for a month or 2, or however long is needed, then I can do a small part by giving this group a place to chat. We have proven before that we can alter the normal use of things to help in ways that are needed when times are not “normal”, like WWII for example. Ok, so maybe WHW isn’t making PPE or delivering things from one part of the world to another, but we can chat about this stuff and get through it as a group. 🙂

        1. Thank you TK for all you do for this forum. I know life exists outside of WHW. I don’t know how you do it.

  23. What exactly would a “national lockdown” look like? What services would still be available compared to the current landscape?

    1. Good question, Philip. In France, they’ve ordered all bars and restaurants closed. Not even takeout. And essential services are limited to grocery store, pharmacies, and a few gas stations (but not many, as there are very few people on the road). They’ve also virtually shut down most airports and trains are hardly running. There are no exemptions to group get-togethers like there are here in 12 states (eg, religious gatherings), and police enforcement in France is draconian to an American’s ears and eyes. French people, like most Europeans, already had to carry with them at all times an identity card (carte d’identite). Now, in the era of the coronavirus, they must show that in addition to explaining to police manned throughout major cities and towns why they are out and about. These are obviously random checks. They’re not everywhere. But still, you get the point. It’s a stringent lockdown.

      Our social distancing is, on the other hand, “lockdown very light.” And while I am in strongly in favor of people adhering to social distancing guidelines, I also respect or understand, for example, what Baker had to say about it. “I do not believe that I can or should order U.S. citizens to be confined to their homes.” It’s an American principle we should all be proud of: Non-interference from government in our affairs. HOWEVER, with a pandemic of this size the need arises for authorities to do more. I do believe that public health trumps our rights temporarily.

    2. From what I know, it would be not too much different than what we have now, except the travel limitations would be a little more intense and enforced. We’d still have essentials we were able to do and yes you’d still be able to go outside but pretty much everything public would be closed off and anywhere you could go would be very restricted, number-wise. The aim is to make distancing happen where it was failing. It’s the only way we know how to put our maximum effort in to flatten the curve. Yes I’m sick of that phrase too but there’s a reason we’re trying to do it. I’m craving a walk to my local pond on a beautiful afternoon, or a drive to and walk on my favorite beach (which is already closed). The pond is still technically open but I’ve seen firsthand that too many people are there for me to feel like I can safely do what I need to do, despite my best effort. So for now I’ve chosen to just stay away, with the possible exception of maybe going for a walk there at dawn, while most people are still sleeping. I’m ok with having to do this knowing what our collective aim is.

  24. On the weather front, I think I’ll take to the shore in the early AM. Thinking I am going to see much bigger than normal waves.

    On the CV front, it looks like the world has passed the 1 million mark.

    1. I may go to the shore, briefly, near one of the high tides, probably to a couple places I can see by car for pics and/or video. Of course any of these plans I make are subject to change, but when I went there I would not expect crowds to be wandering the oceanside. 😉

        1. I’m more for the wave action, so I’m thinking Friday evening’s high tide or possibly Saturday morning’s.

  25. Below is my final note today on Covid-19. Believe it or not, I’m Covidded out. It’s the fact that it’s so serious and part of my work that I have to remain engaged.

    Two troubling statistics in Massachusetts with respect to Covid-19:

    – Testing positivity rates: was ~10% ten days ago, now 25%. Was hopeful it would go down with broader testing, but it’s not. This implies the virus is spreading, as testing is mostly limited to sicker people

    – Case (crude) fatality rate: now 1.7%, highest rate so far in Massachusetts. This also reflects the national trend of rising CFR, as well as Germany and other countries. The CFR has NOT gone down as predicted. It’s actually gone up over time. That’s damn troubling, if you ask me.

    1. They’re in the process of doing that. Evidently, in Michigan blacks have been disproportionately affected. However, that has NOT been verified from what I can tell.

      It is known that the virus impacts men worse than women, and obviously the older you are the worse you’re impacted.

  27. TK, I’m happy to hear about your mother being close to “victory” as I believe you put it.

  28. I watched Governor Baker this afternoon and now, having trouble controlling his emotion as he met the arrival of the Pats plane. Maybe I am the only one who sees a serious problem with our governor begging ..literally…daily for PPEs from our government and then finally turning to China to get them

    Again….facts are NOT political. They are simply truth

    1. And God bless Baker and the Patriots and China. Those masks will go to our medical folks right down to first responders and to COs…..and my son.

    2. I agree. And nobody should have to beg for what they should have been working hard to deliver all along.

      And I also agree that this is not about politics, it is about facts. The folks that we, as a people (regardless of each or our personal choices) put in office are part of this discussion because they are charged by us with the job of doing what we need. Whether they are delivering that or not is another matter, and as part of the discussion this elicits fair criticism, be it positive or negative, approval of disapproval. I hope that made sense. I’m exhausted. 😛

      1. 🙂

        I am frazzled. A state I am not used to. But it comes from worry and fear. I just want truth and fairness

        Meanwhile I managed to dump my lovely little dish of baked stuffed shrimp into the oven….the house, my clothes, me, everything smells like garlic and shrimp. Tomorrow I will regroup.

        Thank you TK

        1. Since I don’t mind garlic or shrimp, that would not be the worst thing in the world. My father would have been very happy about it. 2 of his favorites!

      2. And the positive is we have angels everywhere; and for me and many, we have a wonderful God. That said….I know and so respect individual beliefs. I wish the very best for all…always

  29. When TK requests a bit more weather talk by gosh I have to oblige. I put together a bunch of infographics from around the internet on this storm I haven’t heard much about for tomorrow.

    https://imgur.com/a/UIjoowW

    My advice is make sure all your devices are charged if you live along the coast. I anticipate some power outages because of the wind and wet earth.

    1. We are hoping the new trampoline doesn’t go airborne. We do have things securing it but not sure how saturated the ground is

  30. A question for Dr. Stupid. if you’re around:

    Dr. Stupid wrote at 2:58 PM
    A national lockdown is far less feasible for the US landmass size. Here is france compared to the US: https://imgur.com/a/Jmo0UdR

    Where did you locate that data? I have been looking for a site just like that where you can plug in the country, e.g. seeing the size of Italy or Japan compared to the US. anyone have a suggestion?

  32. Baker, the Krafts and China all got points with me, there are also a couple of machines that MA now has in which all used 95s masks will be sent instead of in the trash so they have longer shelf life. There is also some other possible equipment to be brought to us by China involving some other people as well at some later date. I honestly like Baker before this but he has proven even more how much of a leader he actually is.

    1. Great news Matt.

      I was thinking today as I watched the governor that he is dealing with two year old wanna be’s on so many levels. Now if we can get the country shut down from the top, I think governors can handle it from there

    2. I was wishy washy on baker before this for a variety of reasons but so far through this crisis he has earned my vote and I usually never speak on who or what I vote for.

  34. Dr Although I do not remember the specific show, I am sure I watched what’s your line with Ed Sullivan with my nana. And Arlene Francis was a favorite of hers

    Thank you for the laughs and the memories that are beyond special

    Sleep tight all.

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