C-19 Chat Post – April 5 2020

64 Comments

C-19 Chat for today…
No name-calling.
No shaming
Have a good day. Stay safe & healthy.
Follow the guidelines. Flatten the curve.

Working on the weather post now.

64 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 5 2020”

  4. I just watched the movie Contagion
    Holy Crap Batman. Talk about a scary movie, very well done. It is well worth a look.

    1. If I’m not mistaken, the President is hoping to relax social distancing standards by Easter. I can’t imagine that happening anytime soon. It’s been hard enough getting some people to just the basics as it is.

  6. Trump also wants sports back and stadiums and arenas with fans in them by August and September. He also thinks the NFL season will start on time. I don’t see fans in stadiums and arenas when sports coming back. Governor Gavin Newsom of California doesn’t like the idea of fans back in stadiums and arenas in August and September.

  7. The global picture is murky. Some improvement – plateauing and lower numbers of deaths – in Italy and Spain. But, the numbers are still not on a downward path. France continues to be worrisome in terms of new cases and death numbers (some of which is attributed to officials now including nursing home deaths, which they didn’t before). The UK has a really bad case fatality rate. No surprise there, quite frankly. However much I respect the NHS it’s terribly underfunded and ill-prepared for a crisis of this magnitude.

    The U.S. picture is unclear as well. Some room for optimism (west coast). But a lot of hotspots. Also, beware of the Sunday effect. It’s coming. I predict lower overall numbers, which will be deceiving. It’s happened 3 straight weeks in a row.

    My son’s got something. Spiked a 103F fever . It’s down now. He’s feeling not nearly as badly as he did when he had the flu in January. Told explicitly not to get a test at this point. I’m concerned about myself. But, there’s not much more I can do. I keep reminding myself I’m not in a high risk category. Still, the randomness of it all has me worried. I’m also prone to anxiety. Trying to minimize high viral load at this point. If my son has Covid-19 it’s likely I have the virus that causes it, too. But, I still need to minimize any more exposure. I’m reading that one of the reasons medics have been getting infected so frequently and getting quite sick (some have died) is due to viral load.

    1. Hope your son continues to improve and that you stay healthy. I understand the anxiety. Chances are it is not C-19 but you don’t want to take any chances. Do what you need to do, not that you don’t know that already.

      Somebody I talk to from the UK has been telling me horror stories of people just not complying with what is needed to do to accomplish what we are trying to do. Sad that at this point that’s still going on. We all want this to end, but we all have to do our part. Broken record talk now but it’s still not sinking in to some folks.

      The other 2 things that bug me a bit today are the continuation of carelessness in disposal of rubber gloves, with parking lots becoming more and more littered with these things. Everybody has a responsibility to take care of those properly, and clearly a significant percentage of the population using them is not doing that. It was already a sore spot with me because one of my places of employment had an issue with rubber gloves being tossed in front of a dumpster instead of INTO it. I never understood that. And the second of the 2 things that was getting to me were folks complaining about having to wait in a line to get into a grocery store. Ok, same people who are complaining that there is no social distancing going on, so the store takes matters into its own hands, realizing people need to get groceries, so they limit the amount of customers that can be in there at any one time to avoid over-crowding, make the isles one-way, which is a brilliant move, have the 6-foot markers up at registers, and require those waiting outside to get in to also observe the 6-foot rule. If you stretch out a line to 6 feet between people, it’s going to look a whole lot longer isn’t it? I mean that’s just logic, about as simple as it gets. Yet people are still bitching (on my social media feed) that there are too many people there. Well, if you’re complaining yet you’re one of them, then you’re complaining about yourself aren’t you? Or are you somehow exempt from it because you’re just above the rest? That’s not how it works folks! We’re all in this together which means we WORK together. Get over yourselves. 😛 “I guarantee you most of these people are not there for essential items!” wrote one angry person on a FB post today. Oh yeah, I’m sure they went to buy the National Enquirer and a package of plastic birthday candle holders. Maybe they should require you to bring a list and monitor you as you go around the store? 😛 There are a lot of wanna-be police out there these days. Put away your imaginary badges and whistles and just do what you’re supposed to do. Life will be back to normal eventually and you better not forget the lessons you, yes YOU are being taught. But somehow I bet you will… 😛

      “You” being the ignorant members of the public who just don’t get it. Most of us do get it. It’s just the few that don’t that make this more difficult.

      My rant is done. 😉

      1. I love it when you rant. I agree 100% and then some.

        I have not been out of the house since 3/13. My wife hasn’t been
        out since 3/3, now MORE than 1 month. It is beginning to get
        to us like we are under siege, but we are hanging in there. Clearly doing our part.

        We are both at Extremely high risk being in our 70s and my wife also has Asthma and I am over weight and pre-diabetic. Not a nice combination for this illness.

        We have our routines pretty much down and believe it or not, the time is just zipping by.

        We will get through this.

    2. I believe Viral load is the key as does my wife. Right at the outset she said that
      viral load had a huge impact upon whether one gets sick and how sick one
      might get. Our bodies immune system may be able to handle a small viral load, but gets overwhelmed by a larger viral load. It’s a theory anyway.

      It’s NOT just underlying health conditions, although clearly that is a contributing factor for sure. Some perfectly healthy persons of all ages with no
      prior medical conditions are getting deathly sick and even dying.

      Dr. Fauci said that something is going on here that we just do not understand
      as of yet. Insert here mu wife saying: “It’s the viral load!”

      My wife said it was airborne long before the CDC dared to even hint at it.

      Another CNN commentator, Brooke Baldwin, has also come down with it.
      She said she followed all of the proper protocols and she does not know
      How she was exposed. Airborne? She may have practiced 6 feet, but it should have been 25 feet. Could it have been fomite exposure to virus? Perhaps handing groceries brought into the house? Scary thoughts.

      Joshua, if you haven’t done so, watch the movie contagion. I would be
      curious to hear your thoughts. thanks

    3. Joshua,
      Because your son already had the Flu this past Winter, it is not likely he has the flu again (yes, could be a different strain?). Therefore it is likely but not certain, that your son has Covid-19. One of the doctors living on our dead end street,
      said as much to my son because my son was sick for 2 weeks and already
      had a nasty flu in January.

      It just does NOT make sense that he can’t be tested. And it is NOT RIGHT!!!
      The way this country has handled this pandemic is SHAMEFUL!!!!

  8. Some thoughts on China….

    Total Cases as of a little bit ago:

    USA 320,828
    China 81,669

    Population of china is approx 1.4 billion
    Population of USA is approx 327 million

    That gives china a per person case rate of: .005 %
    USA per person case rate of: .09 %

    Why is the US rate so much higher? I presume it was due to the Drastic containment
    measures undertaken by the Chinese government.

    I just find it most interesting.

      2. Hey….we agree. Of course I don’t think we have a clue here either but in this case not for lying…just not enough testing

        1. Agree. For the most part our numbers are real, however,
          they are vastly under-reported for sure.

    1. A wild variety of reasons:
      – to not appear weak to the rest of the world
      – to make their government seem stronger and more effective (propaganda is the tool they find the most useful to control their populace.)
      – to force people back to work so they can have a stranglehold on other countries who depend on them for cheaply made supplies

      I could go on. US Intellegence has stated that they believe China’s numbers to be well off from what they’ve stated they were at. Their data is not to be trusted.

        2. Thanks Doc. My eyes have been opened. The WHO is to blame as well as they didn’t declare a “worldwide pandemic” much sooner and didn’t recommend travel bans until it was way too late.

          If you think about it, we just BARELY got through being able to have the SB and Oscars events. Whew!

          1. Unfortunately there are some murmurs that China has some sort of financial grip on WHO. Here’s a video of a WHO representative pretending not to hear and then hanging up on a reporter that questioned them about Taiwan. https://youtu.be/tCFPFWsIPmM

        3. Mac worked with and was friends with some folks from Russia. They are US citizens now but have family still in Russia and visit yearly and more. They have said the very same re reasons and as you said…..more.

  10. Thank you all for your concerns.

    TK, you’re right about people disposing of their gloves and masks on the streets, sidewalks, parking lots. Unbelievable.

    My son and I are doing okay at this point. One day at a time. One moment I’m rational and know that the chances of my son or myself getting very sick and dying are very small. The next moment, I’m convinced it’s going to happen. Totally irrational, I know.

    Coastal, you are correct about China, at least early on in this crisis. I wrote a Forbes piece about it the other day: Coronavirus under authoritarian rule: The wacky, the in denial, the problematic. Early on China not only dismissed the virus as a non-concern, the government harassed, arrested, and quashed whistleblowers. For 3 to 4 weeks the contagion spread and the Hubei Health Commission insisted there were “no new cases.” Then, around the 20th of January, the government changed its attitude. I do believe China’s reporting since then has been more accurate. Americans who live in China describe the extremely draconian measures put in place. A true lockdown does get the job done, but is hard to enforce in a free society like ours.

    Philip, part of the reason WHO dragged its feet is they believed the Chinese as late as the 18th of January. The Chinese had already sequenced the novel coronavirus in late December and knew it was SARS-like, therefore human-to-human transmission highly likely. Yet, WHO tweeted on the 18th (!) of January, “the Chinese say there is no clear evidence that the novel coronavirus can be transmitted human-to-human.”

    1. Thank you Joshua. I was unsure about WHO and had the same sense you mentioned.

      I’m so very sorry to hear such sad news of your moms friends. Hugs and prayers to you

  11. JP Dave, I’m sorry to hear what you and your wife are going through. That’s true quarantining. Not easy. Your wife had such a tough winter last year. And, I can also imagine you being uneasy about this disease.

    I can say without hyperbole that I’ve never experienced something like this in my life. I was really sad and angry after September 11th. And that emotion lasted a while. But, the nation came together. Everyone was determined to go on with life. And in essence that’s what happened, beginning only a few of weeks after the terrorist attacks. Of course, things had changed. But, I feel that it was different. This time the pandemic has impacted everyone globally and everything as well. Nothing is normal.

    As you may recall one of my mother’s best friends succumbed to Covid-19 last Monday. Well, today I heard that another person who my mother knew well passed away from Covid-19. She was only 78. It’s hitting home. My mother may have passed away at the `right’ time. She would have hated being cooped up all day, and not being allowed visitors.

    1. I am so sorry Joshua. The longer this goes on, I’m afraid the more it
      will strike close to home. You and your son hang tough. We’re with you.

    2. So sorry about your mother’s friends. At least your mother passed away in a better state, relatively speaking. I get the impression that you leave with covid suffering, no matter the age. Hope your son recovers very soon.

      As for the MA numbers, it appears that age 50-59 has the most cases surprisingly. I am 59 myself and turn 60 later this year. So far A-ok. All I can do is take one day at a time, as should you Joshua.

  13. Dr. S, you’re absolutely correct about the Chinese obfuscation, especially early on. Also, this is a regime that has trampled on human rights of its citizens for many decades. I may have mentioned that I probably can’t get a visa to visit China, because of my “subversive” activities – letters of encouragement to dissidents, letters of condemnation to the Chinese government.

    All this said, our government dropped the ball. It’s not our government’s fault that the virus is here. But, the government had ample opportunities to do more in January and February and decided not to. The same can be said for European governments. There’s collective guilt if you will. Hopefully we’ll learn from it for the next pandemic.

      1. That they did. And each and everyone from top down should be escorted from office.

        Yes, I realize that doesn’t gel with our foundation. But then ….

        1. Our government should get us our “stimulus” checks into our hands…PRONTO!!!

          I have been hearing yet another delay??

    1. Thank you for this Vicki. This part is interesting and frightening:

      “…even if there is only a little bit of additional connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates, unnecessary trips to the store, etc.), the epidemic likely won’t be much different than if there was no measure in place.”

      1. You’re very welcome.

        That part caught my eye also. And it is worrisome. And the comment that you can’t cheat.

  15. Dr. S, what Burr and the other senator did is unconscionable. Really bad.

    Philip, the government is slow on the ball with this. I’m self-employed. Lost 4 contracts due to Covid-19 (companies bailed on projects as it’s discretionary cash they now don’t have for consulting gigs). I don’t expect to get anything but apparently I can apply nonetheless. Well, turns out the state of Massachusetts hasn’t received federal guidance on unemployment benefits for self-employed and so I can’t apply yet. Who knows how long that will take.

    1. Yes, and that’s good.

      But Coastal, I’m concerned about the Sunday effect (like a GFS run that just doesn’t compute). New Jersey’s death total decreased from 200 to 71, for example. I’m very skeptical about that kind of a drop in one day. For the past 3 weeks I’ve observed what I call a Sunday effect. Each time it made me a bit giddy only to have my hopes dashed on Monday. Let’s hope for consistent improvement this week.

      I will say that Europe hasn’t had the Sunday effect in my observations in the past month. Their data reporting is more consistent and centralized. The very, very good news today is that we see some consistent improvement across all countries on the continent today. UK is lagging (also not on the continent). I believe the continent has turned the corner. It’ll be a slow and painful turn. But, I don’t think we’ll see the new cases and deaths we’ve been seeing.

      1. I would love to know why the numbers drop over the weekend her in the US but not in other countries.

        1. Great question, Coastal. I know some of the data collectors, including a person at the medical examiner’s office in NYC. He admitted that the 24 hour counts are sometimes imprecise. That is, when it says on Monday that NYC had x number of deaths in the last 24 hours, it can include deaths that were not recorded for some reason – let’s say because it’s Sunday and fewer people working in the office – up to 48 hours ago. Same applies to the tally of new cases.

          You never know, though, maybe they’ve gotten through the back log and tomorrow’s report will show another decline. Let’s hope.

  17. As expected.. the weekend #’s drop, but they will show a spike tomorrow and an overall climb for, according to medical experts, at least another 1 to 2 weeks. I almost feel like a peak around mid April is being optimistic, but I surely hope that’s correct. I’m definitely no expert – far from that, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a little lag in the overall peak, followed by hopefully a steady decline. We’ll need to be careful not to suddenly go back to normal just because we’ve passed the peak. We’re going to have to see this through to the end.

    Hope everybody is making the best out of the situation. I know it varies greatly from person to person here based on their life situation, job, etc. – just do the best you can. We’ll get through it.

    A little positivity: I did my mom’s weekly shopping for her, a few hours later than I normally do it. The store I utilize has a very good system set up which was followed very very well. Just a couple of cases inside the store where people had to be a little closer than the recommended, although it’s nearly impossible to 100% avoid that. The folks that were in closer proximity, including store personnel, were utilizing gloves and masks. None of this is going to be perfect, but we have to be as close to perfect as we can possibly get to maximize what we are trying to do here. Nobody is exempt. Overall, I found that people’s moods interacting to be pleasant and positive. We need that! This is not a time to be arguing and adding to each other’s stress. Is any time really? No. But especially now. Also, I noticed a BIG reduction in the amount of rubber gloves in that parking lot. Last week, I saw 10 or 12 just between the 6th space from the door and the door itself. Today, I saw one across about 1/3 of the entire lot. Big improvement. I realize it’s entirely possible that a store employee may have gone through and picked some up just before my arrival, but I hope people have also started to smarten up and get rid of these protective things more responsibly. A work in progress anyway.

    We are all capable of doing this right, so let’s do it right.

  18. British PM admitted to hospital with persistent Covid-19 symptoms. My guess is he’s probably having some breathing problems. I hope he’ll be ok.

    1. He’s had it for quite a while, one of the more significant cases it seems. I believe he started having symptoms about 10 days ago.

    2. Yes. Feel the same. I put all politics aside when it comes to this. People are people. Any person that suffers from this should have our empathy and sympathy.

  19. Is April 10-20 a significant timeframe with regards to the virus?

    I saw it on Ch. 4 this morning running along the crawl screen but didn’t have time to stick around to wait for a repeat.

    1. It’s like weather forecasting really. These things can be modeled, but you’re still dealing with something that has a few newer aspects to it that some previous outbreaks did not. The world changes, and even subtle changes in some places can be amplified in others, or how they impact other things. So we have a general idea of how these things work. Here’s a glaring example of a difference: During the Spanish Flu pandemic, we didn’t have cell phones. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we do. Right away you have hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of additional potential virus transfer devices. Are most of them carrying COVID-19? Absolutely not, but you can’t look at a phone and know. So, major uncertainty factor right there… And that’s only one example.

  23. My Grandpa as you know passed away earlier this year. He was in a rehab/nursing home down the street from where my grandparents place is, it would have been worst if we all were not allowed to be with him if it happened now

    1. Matt my heart aches. I think of not being able to see Mac. There really are no words.

      Please everyone. Reach out to adult facilities in your area and ask if you can send an email.

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