Monday Forecast

40 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)
It’s springtime in New England, and good weather can have its down sides just as wet weather can have its up sides. Read on to see why… High pressure will bring fair and mild weather to the region today and Tuesday, very nice for any outside activity you can manage to do. The down sides? If you are an allergy sufferer, the next 2 days will likely be rough as the early-season pollen count spikes pretty high. Also, today’s sunshine and gusty breeze will spike the fire danger risk. Brush fires can start easily and spread quickly in these conditions. Tuesday night, a cold front will slip down from the north and chill us down, and quickly a low pressure area will be moving along that boundary from west to east to provide several hours of soaking rain, an overcast and much cooler Wednesday, with a follow up system to bring yet more wet weather on Thursday. The up sides? The wet weather will cleanse the air of pollen and relieve allergy sufferers, while also squelching the fire danger. When we get to Friday, behind the second low pressure area will come a gusty wind, lots of clouds, and the risk of a few passing instability showers as a broad upper level low pressure area will still have to cross the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Spotty drizzle in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and periods of drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)
Breezy, cool, dry April 11. Low pressure brings a threat of rain back April 12-13. Fair, milder April 14. Front brings rain shower threat then breezy and cooler weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)
Low confidence forecast here. Will watch for a wave of low pressure with potential precipitation early to mid period and improving weather thereafter. Temperatures below normal.

40 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Here’s my Monday roundup of the 7 day forecasts PLUS infographics from around the dial: https://imgur.com/a/TzcEW9U

    Also thanks TK.

    GFS doesn’t want to bring that smoke for the snow it mentioned last night. But given how this year has felt like a bizarre simulation I’m going to keep watching that time period.

  6. If I paid attention correctly this year to a point Eric Fisher made on twitter often, the GFS over time would always do a several hundred mile westward correction. In other words, 10 days out, it would show a low passing between Boston and Bermuda and by 2 days out, it would have the same low correctly tracking over Chicago.

    Well, I feel like the EURO is doing the same thing right now. About 5 days ago, it seemed like the lows were all southeast of New England and in the last day or 2, its backing the trof up further west into central US and now, there are a parade of lows looking to go mostly west of us.

  7. Thanks TK. A couple of really nice days on the way. We’re staring down the barrel of a classic winter pattern these next 15 days though. Certainly looks to be getting driven by the MJO. In all likelihood this would’ve been a major snow producing pattern in Dec-Mar. Obviously tough to do that this time of year, but most of the next couple weeks look cold, stormy, and wet (and maybe a little white).

  8. Thanks TK
    Two real nice spring days today and tomorrow. I hope that classic winter shows up for a little while next winter WxWatcher.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Beautiful day. Ah, the classic New England spring tease. It’s like the girl you had a crush on in high school who one day on a whim flashed a smile your way and you thought, hey, she likes me. This is good. But then afterwards, for days on end, you were tormented by her pretending you didn’t exist. That kind of sums up my love-hate relationship with spring.

  14. 18z NAM with a major snowstorm for SNE on Thursday. I could see some decent snows happening in parts of central or northern New England with that system but I’m gonna sell on 6″+ in Boston…

      1. Yeah, this pattern stings me a little. The geek in me would’ve loved to have seen how this would’ve played out a couple months ago, though it’ll still be interesting to watch even in April. Frankly I don’t think that brief blocking pattern that we had would’ve done much for us in terms of cold/snow, not with a strong -PNA in place. But what’s coming now is classic.

        1. Don’t get me going, it’s killing me!

          And even if SNE doesn’t get much, NNE probably will cash in some over the next few weeks. But cant even take advantage of that with the ski resorts all closed up early.

          1. Sad they has to close but darned if they didn’t have a great season. That just warms my heart. It has been catch as catch can for them for decades.

            Sadly, this is my brothers first year in my memory of his 70+ years that he has not been physically able to ski.

    2. These freak spring snowstorms are usually the ones that don’t pop up till a few days before on the models. Interesting…

      I’d certainly be watching this closely if I lived in northern Worcester County, NH or Maine

  16. Thanks TK.

    Gorgeous day out there and I’m sitting at about the same temp here Dave.

    Haven’t been posting much as I have been very busy with work this past week and try to get everything done while working remotely at home with all the distractions of house chores, dog, and kids has been a challenge. You would think I would have more time on my hands but its actually been the reverse! I am also completely “COVID’ed” out to be quite frank. Great idea to split the weather and CV talk into two separate blogs.

    Wanted to share a couple links below highlighting the diversity of early April weather in New England.

    This first shot of the cherry blossoms at peak bloom already in Downtown New Haven:

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1247205595243053061?s=20

    Meanwhile on Mt Washington, there was a massive ice storm on Friday. Up to 18″ of rime ice accumulated on the summit, damaging some of their instruments. Impressive….

    https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1246388902002335744?s=20

  17. Mark, thanks for sharing the rime ice accumulation photos as well as the cherry blossoms. Glad to know all is well with you.

    Philip, thanks for asking about my son. He’s doing better. Fever is down.

  21. I am laughing at that run like I did with the 12z GFS run yesterday showing double digit snowfall amounts for eastern SNE April 16th – 17th. I am thinking any snow will be in northern New England for Thursday.

    1. 4-13/14 and 4-17/18 are the next watch periods next week for coastal systems which could deliver some frozen, at least for interior areas, if everything comes together.

  23. Just came in from sitting out front with family and watching the kids play basketball and then ride various wheeled things up and down the street. Glorious evening

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