100 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 9 2020”

  1. Just a brief thoughts on Massachusetts deaths being down yesterday.
    Deaths are choppy and depends upon who got sick and when. If better treatment
    is contributing to that, outstanding! I believe that the more important stat is
    the number of new cases, which is still rising. We won’t turn the corner until
    new cases are on the decline. No evidence of that just yet. Hopefully, really soon.

    1. I agree with this, in terms of the overall trend. Nothing is completely smooth. I think we peak during the next 10 days somewhere, but the decline will be slow.

      A lot of people are under the impression that flattening the curve shortens the entire process, when it can actually lengthen it slightly. The most important thing is going to be when we get into that steadier decline to keep doing the right things and keep it going that way, and not to get complacent. Fear does not need to rule, but common sense should.

  2. I hope everyone and your loved ones are staying well and are recovering.
    I have been so busy with school and life, I haven’t had time to follow the stories here.
    I know that some of my WHW friends have had family members who have been infected with Covid-19. I hope they are on their way to complete recovery and y’all have been in my prayers.

    My high school buddy’s Mom passed last Friday. The family could not be with her when she died. She couldn’t have a wake nor a funeral Mass. Her burial was private. So sad.

    Tom, how’s Distance Learning/Teaching going? It’s has only taken me four weeks to figure it out! 🙂 Most of my students are doing the work. Again, it can only be enrichment and I can only mark the work as Completed or Incomplete.
    I only had about 20 school days with these new groups of students. I don’t know how much more “enrichment” I can do. I am in big trouble if I am “enriching” to June 25.

    Also, an update to my son’s Florida trip: I had told you the cost of the trip was nonrefundable. It is nonrefundable with the travel agency that booked the trip. I filed a claim with the travel insurance company last Thursday. We’ll let that play out. Hopefully someone with common sense will approve a full refund for the cost of the trip.

    Please stay well, everyone!

    Peace!

    1. Sorry about your buddy. So sad.
      Hang in there.

      My daughter has been doing the online teaching from the get go.
      She’s pretty damn good technically, so she had no issues.

      We did a family Zoom meeting last evening for our Son’s birthday. That app
      is really awesome. You can set up an account for free, but are limited
      to 40 minute meetings. Can have unlimited time for $14.95 per month. Seems quite reasonable to me. https://zoom.us/

      Take it one day at a time and we’ll get through this.

      Cheers

      1. I have learned to use Google Hangouts and taught family members how to use it. I find Zoom too complicated.

    2. Hi Captain.

      I am very sorry to here about your high school buddy and what the family is going through.

      Same exact experience with on-line learning with everything you mentioned. Time for me to learn how to, credit or no credit for trying, enrichment(not new). I have had the benefit of seeing my students all year and they have been great ! Our teachings were surveyed and they overwhelmingly wanted to work thru April break week, Tues to Friday, and then the School Committee approved it, so we now will be ending June 17th.

      1. Our school committee is meeting tonight and, like you, we voted on whether we should teach through Spring Break. We’ll find out tomorrow. My gut feeling is we are not going back to school until August. If we’re not going back to school, let’s forge ahead and get this over with sooner than later.
        Again, I am heartbroken for my son and his “Squad”. They stand to lose all of their senior activities.

      2. Tom I believe that is the thought out this way too for April. Makes sense to me.

        Captain, I am so very sorry. Two friends lost parents in the past couple of weeks and it is heart wrenching. There are countless folks and families we will never really know about who are impacted by this virus without having it.

        For home schooling from a parents perspective…I’m just listening to my kids…..it is overwhelming. Fortunately, the majority of my grands teachers are exceptional.

        1. I won’t bore you with my absolute frustration about the home school process but will say that our district is still taking the spring break and will not assign work that week. Maybe I can use that week to read through the hundreds of emails I have received about distance learning

          1. Sounds familiar….you and my youngest will need gallons of wine. My oldest however was telling me that her girls get a calendar on Friday with all assignments. They may get optional work during the weeks but everything comes on one day. It sure is a learning curve for teachers and students and all are amazing

            I can’t believe you will have April vacation but then no word from Sutton either

          2. I should add that you are still working and my youngest is not. I can’t imagine how you are getting it done.

  3. CF, I’m very sorry to hear about your friend’s Mom. As Vicki and others have pointed out, the sadness of dying alone is just unthinkable.

    TK pointed out that flattening the curve is one thing, but what comes after that is the next challenge. We and many other nations have made the curve flatter. This is good. But, given the staggering numbers of new confirmed cases we have on a daily basis at the apparent plateau level (between 25k and 34k) just means the tail will be long and drawn out, especially in a nation with inconsistent social distancing measures.

    Also, testing in the U.S. is still abysmal. Why does this matter? Well, that flattening of the curve may not even be real. This is not baked into the models, I can assure you.

    – 2 weeks ago, we tested about 100,000 people in a day.

    – Today, we test 135,000.

    – That is a measly 35% increase. In 2 weeks!

    – During that time, the number of confirmed cases has increased nearly 500%; number of daily new cases has increased 82%

    – The percentage who test positive has gone from 17% to 23%

    What does all this mean? There are many more people in the U.S. with coronavirus than the current data indicate. Indeed, under-reporting is not only in terms of cases of people with the virus. It also applies to under-reporting of deaths, as on a daily basis hundreds of people have died of Covid-19 like symptoms and not been tested.

      1. Feeling okay. Good enough to read a bit.

        Wish we had drive-through testing like Rhode Island. My son and I would like to know what we have. Could very well not be Covid-19. But, we just don’t know. Going to an urgent care or ER to get tested is just not necessary for either of us at this time, and may in fact be a burden on the system as well as ourselves (unlike the drive-through option).

        Hope all is well with you and your wife.

        We’ll all get through this. I do believe that this fall will be feel very different (perhaps even very special) as we gradually return to normal. I agree with one thing Trump said, we should have parades for the healthcare workers. He’s right about that. They’re heroes in my opinion.

        This set of pictures from last month of Italian medical professionals tells the story: https://twitter.com/ThetravellerA/status/1241692762044538882/

        1. Glad you are holding your own Joshua. I thought there were drive through sites in MA. But then I keep hearing different things and clearly need to pay more attention to that aspect.

          I absolutely agree re parade and would add first responders, truck drivers, delivery folks, grocery store workers, all hospital staff, postal employees, bank employees, restaurant folks. And I know I am forgetting too many but everyone still at work every day to make sure those in their homes have what they need.

          1. Get better real soon, Joshua!
            Can’t thank you enough for all of your insights during all of this!

        2. Thanks Joshua. My wife is ok, but still not feeling totally well. What ever she has/had is lingering as she is 1/2
          way through her 5th week of whatever the bleep it is.
          Since she has had some shortness of breath all along,
          I am suspicious of covid, but without testing we’ll never know. Shortness of breath is improved over previous weeks.

  4. Joshua glad to hearing your feeling okay today.
    I agree with NY Governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that we are not out of the woods even though the curve is flattening. I keep saying if we return to normal too quickly there could be another surge which we don’t want to see. The social distancing is working as the models are lowering the expected number of people who could pass away from this.

  5. Get better real soon, Joshua!
    Can’t thank you enough for all of your insights during all of this!

  7. Thanks, everyone.

    JP Dave, wishing your wife well. She had a rough winter last year. And now this.

    Vicki, I should have definitely included all the people you mentioned. From the grocery store clerks to letter carriers to the IT people ensuring we have internet. It’s remarkable how they’ve all kept us afloat.

  8. Question for parents and for teachers. With the Zoom security warnings, have you been given any guidance?

    1. Yes, Vicki, we have received an update and an on-line tutorial. I used Zoom last week with my kids just to practice with it and check in. A school in our district had a major, inappropriate incident with a Zoom session on Monday. I have decided not to use Zoom with the kids. As I mentioned above, I find Zoom complicated to coordinate. I will use it in the future when I get a PD session on it.
      I have been answering questions via email and I will have a Google Hangouts session, one-on-one, with a student if needed.

      1. Thank you, Captain. That is great judgement.

        I also just found out that Sutton will have April vacation. The thought is that if school goes back in session kids will have a week of school at the end.

        In case anyone didn’t feel my eye role………………

    1. I wish you the very best. We are all thinking of you and your son. And others here as well. For a small ish blog, we have a number of folks.

  10. Besides those mentioned above and late last night in the previous post who are recognized for their work during this crisis, I would like to add Security Officers like myself who are deemed “essential” and cannot work from home. Buildings and property still need protection even if they are not necessarily occupied a normal manner. Many buildings are or will soon be converted for other purposes until this crisis wanes.

    Personally, I would also like to recognize human bank tellers as well. Yesterday I went to a Citizens Bank to deposit a check via ATM but there was a sign that said that the ATM was not accepting check deposits. I knocked on the door and was allowed to come in to make my deposit. I was quite surprised to see all the tellers with no separation shields for them whatsoever. Even the smallest convenience stores have them now.

    I posted this in the previous post very early this morning in response to Vicki’s recognition late last night. 🙂

    1. I sure agree. Many heroes in our midst. I include security and corrections in first responders here but in my prayers my list is specific. Thank you, Philip, for all you are doing

  11. Couple things out today WABC Out of NYC Reporting On COVID19.
    NEW YORK (WABC) — Researchers are confirming what many had suspected: a lack of testing may have allowed this virus to spread undetected in the Tri-State area for weeks.
    Those scientists at Mount Sinai and NYU studied the genetic make-up of the coronavirus from a group of patients, concluding many of the infections in New York and New Jersey originated in Europe
    The research, first reported by the New York Times, found COVID-19 was circulating in the New York area by mid-February, well before any lockdowns or European travel restrictions.

    1. I believe that there were already travel restrictions from China, but it is now painfully obvious in hindsight those restrictions should have been extended to Europe, especially Italy.

      It would seem that the White House clearly dropped the ball on this as well as the WHO. If only…

      1. I think everyone dropped the ball on this one, not just the two you selectively called out. Hindsight is a wonderful place to live in Philip.

  12. Both mayor & Governor expect this to go on for quite some time . Mayor saying peak could last till 5/20 . In other words when peak starts it’s going to last awhile ( famous word here AS EXPECTED ) state numbers should be our shorty after 4 . My sons school is doing April vacation , no Finals & if they do go back June 4th is last day ( no schools will be going back in ma .

      1. I thought marty said 5/20 but he corrects himself a lot . As far as 4/20 old salty of peak being over I don’t think that’s possible as peak isn’t officially even here yet they are saying between 4/10 – 4/20 for its arrival but that’s tentative

        1. 4/20 is just an estimated date for the peak. Of course there will be many many cases thereafter.

    2. The peak won’t last until May 20. If it peaks in the next 10 days it will start to decline right away, but it will be a slow decline and one (as I stated earlier today) we have to ride out while practicing the same safety measures we are doing now.

      1. I think Tk on 5/20 this will still be in full throttle mode no doubt in my mind at all . Hope you & your mom are well

    1. Peaking until then, right-skewed, fat tail, elongated curve after that. People forget it’s not a normal distribution curve. The descent is slower than the ascent. Italy, Spain, and France offer us plenty of evidence of that, and they’re both in true lockdown mode. We’re less so.

    2. Saying that regardless of when peak ends it’s still going to be awhile before things get back to even close to normal . As the Governor said you are not just going to wake up & Expect it’s over . Walsh seemed to hint at probably extending May 4th but didn’t really touch too much

    1. I wonder why mark if he extended it that far why he just would not cancel . When does it get out ???

      1. Here in Coventry last day is scheduled for June 12. I’m not sure what the point is of sending students back for a few weeks but I suppose it leaves the door open for final exams, graduations, and other end of year events to happen if conditions allow by then.

  17. From CNN…

    Top US doctor Anthony Fauci said Americans may be able to take summer vacations if mitigation strategies continue.

    1. More testing is increasing the cases.

      Is there a way to track hospitalizations here in Mass?

      1. CT and NY report on hospitalizations every day and it is a key variable they are using to monitor trends and adequacy of the health care system to handle the demand. I am not sure why MA isn’t including that stat in their daily reports.

    3. 2100 positive out of 7500 tests, nearly 30% positivity rate. thats high. wow, this thing had really, really spread before we began social distancing.

        1. concerning to get our largest increase to date. 10 to 14 days prior to April 8th is March 25th to March 29th, our 2nd full week of social distancing. or ….. if it was an increase of 2100 because there was 21000 tests, at least the positivity rate would be low, in other words, your only getting lots of positives because your testing a lot of people. thats not the case, nearly 3 out f every 10 people being tested are positive

  19. Stocks up again today with the Dow rising nearly 300 points. Barring a crash tomorrow, this will be the best week for stocks so far in 2020. Dow now at 23,719 has made 50% of its losses back when comparing the high point just over 29,000 earlier this year to the low point of just over 18,000 a few weeks back. Go figure!

      1. Good point! If you told me that would happen at the beginning of what would likely be our worst week for deaths and unemployment #’s, I wouldn’t have believed it.

        Investors definitely positive on the Fed stimulus and the promising trends with CV containment.

    2. My mentor in weather (who was a market guy) and my financial advisor both would advise that while this week is nice to see, it is barely a scratch on the surface of the big picture We’ll see where we go from here. 🙂

    1. They don’t have complete data…

      Hospitalization
      Patient was hospitalized 1747
      Patient was not hospitalized 5106
      Under Investigation 1208

      1. I believe some of the reasoning is that the hospitals are overwhelmed as is without separating out covid from not covid. Sorry but no link and can guarantee…just read it somewhere so take as is please.

  22. Concerning trend as Massachusetts is a major hotspot. The fact that 30% of people tested positive is an indication that many others are infected but haven’t been tested (could include my son and me). Massachusetts leapfrogged Louisiana and will rise to 4th in the state standings tomorrow as it surpasses California. May even rise to 3rd by next week, depending on Michigan (which is also a major hotspot). For a state with only around 6 million to be that high in terms of cases is worrisome. Deaths are a lagging indicator, as are hospitalizations and ICU usage. Always keep that in mind.

    Coastal is right that the state should release hospitalizations and ICU units data.

    Mark, it is good that the markets have reversed the negative trend. But, that won’t help the vast majority of people who are out of work. 1. This is a service sector recession if there ever was one, and one that impacts the lower socioeconomic class more than others 2. The majority who’ve been laid off don’t have much or even anything in the stock market.

    I’m not in the lower socioeconomic class, but my business has all but dried up. Will it recover? Probably. But not for quite some time. When people spend money on consulting or webinars it’s usually discretionary. Companies don’t have that money right now, or want to be very careful with it. So, I do understand. As for help for the self-employed, many like myself don’t qualify. Even if we do qualify, the feds were so slow with guidance that you can’t apply until April 30th.

  25. Walsh let me be clear we are not going to be out of the woods when the May 4th emergency order expires as of right now but that may be extended . We’re looking into the summer months . We”ll still be talking about Coronavirus pandemic every single day in Boston well into July & August .

          1. Baker has not ruled out getting back to school. Although both girls will not send kids. And Walsh is into July and August. Curious

            2. Vicki I just think it’s to early for baker to commit . I would be shocked if school goes back . I’d bet my House no way they go back . If I were also a betting man the emergency ban will stay into effect till after Memorial Day weekend .

        2. What I posted was word for word what Walsh said . Not I think word for word I copied it here .

  27. Vicki, thanks for asking. I feel pretty well today. Not 100%, but I haven’t gotten as sick as my son did. We may not have Covid-19, but when I called my doctor earlier this week she told me to “presume you do and self-isolate.” I’ve done that. My son’s done that.

  30. Heard a joke and had to share it here.

    The spread of COVID-19 is based on two factors:

    1. How dense the population is
    2. How dense the population is

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