Not to the peak yet and that’s still probably a little way off…
yup. I think US may top a million cases before all is said and done. Hope not, but looking that way.
This came across my FB feed. Wow
“I’m at work and they just called code Rocky and started playing the Rocky theme song. Me and the other guy in the hall look at each other like WTH?! A nice woman explains…
When a COVID-19 patient is well enough to go home they call a “CODE ROCKY”
They called 3 today!!
This is what my heart needed. ❤️
Thank you Baystate Heathcare workers for making a difference!”
I’m adding a thank you toALL healthcare workers.
Thanks, TK…
Thanks also, as always, for your very kind words about teachers.
Vicki and TK,
Tom, JPD’s daughter and I are going to hire you as our agents when it’s time for contract negotiations!
You gotta see this! Your laugh for the day!
Teachers in 2026:
LOL. Love this. And I’ll volunteer my services. I think teachers should be as valued as doctors, etc. They are helping raise and educate our children
I am not an epidemiologist. But, I have no doubt viral load plays a role, given the tremendous toll this disease has taken on medical professionals. See link below for the 19 NHS medical professionals who have died so far during the pandemic. Also, I found out that 21 NYPD (2 detectives and 19 police officers) have died. All these public servants are soldiers.
When all is said and done I believe the U.S. will wind up with ~50% of the world’s cases and ~33% of the world’s deaths. Not an enviable record. Already at ~30% and ~20%, respectively, and rising. Wildcard is what happens in countries like Brazil where cases are increasing significantly.
Flattening the curve has occurred in parts of the country, which is really good. It means the healthcare system won’t be overwhelmed in those areas. However, it’s important to keep in mind that the distribution curve of new daily cases has tended to be right-skewed, fat-tailed, and elongated. All you need to do is review Italy, Spain, and France and check new daily cases and deaths as a lagging indicator. There, they’ve been plateauing for several weeks more or less. I’m hoping to see a real and consistent drop-off soon. Alas, this hasn’t happened yet. This means we have a long way to go, especially given the fact that we’re coming down from peak values of 30-35k new daily cases! There will be continued pressure on the healthcare system. Manageable, but still. And, it’ll be a lengthy period of time before we can say we’ve beaten back the virus.
I do think states like Vermont, Maine, Idaho, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Alaska, etc … can return to relatively normalcy soon, so long as residents there are urged not to travel to states or locales with numerous cases (like Massachusetts), and vice versa, of course.
Final CV note for the day, once again I’m seeing the weekend effect. Among others, Michigan’s numbers do not make sense to me, just like NJ’s last Sunday. I’d like to believe the rather precipitous drop-off in cases and deaths. But, I’m very skeptical. Same applies to Louisiana, Florida, and Texas. Perhaps second batches of data are forthcoming. But, the numbers for these states are under-reported today for sure.
U.S. isn’t alone in data issues. Countries like the U.K. report at 2pm on weekdays, but at 9:30am on weekends (at least Saturday). So, any 24 hour data collection is going to appear skewed. U.K. may not have wanted to see a 1,000 plus deaths day, so they just stopped counting by 9:30am this morning. Yes, I can be cynical.
More deaths in NY today than yesterday. Not good,
Lagging indicator, though. Still, it’s not good.
Notice how NY has also changed its reporting of deaths, which I’m not pleased about from a data analysis perspective. NY now only reports one batch of deaths data, but two batches of cases.
One thing we’ve got to do is make data reporting more consistent.
By the way, I’m grateful to Dr. S for the graphs he posted yesterday for Massachusetts. I learned quite a bit from that.
Yes, I see what you mean. But we have to deal with what we
have.
Positivity rate has increased the past week, from under 30% last Saturday to above 30% today.
1,000 less tests today from yesterday.
This is good news, but I just caution that it is the weekend. I expect much lower tomorrow. Let’s see what Monday and Tuesday bring. Hopefully a continued
downward trend.
Increase of cases since yesterday 1,886 . The positive test ratio for all labs is 30.0% today up from 27.4% yesterday .There are 2,120 total hospitalizations up from 1,747. There have been 59 new deaths in long term care facilities , bringing the total to 306 deaths . Overall there were 87 new covid -19 related deaths bringing the total to 686. 22,860 positive cases in mass, an increase of 1,886 since yesterday.
The surge into the 1,000s of cases per day April 2nd thru April 5th makes sense to me. Go back 10 days to 2 weeks and that’s only near the end of the first week of social distancing.
Now, this new surge the past 3 days, to me is worrisome combined with positivity rates of 30% or higher. This matches to the end of the 2nd week of social distancing, which has to mean widespread asympotomatic cases spreading to those in close proximity to others and spreading efficiently.
And here is the Doc’s link that had been updated for today. This link is awesome.
This is really good. Thanks. Do have a link to the site OR Are you grabbing charts and making like a collage?
Why do the numbers “go down” on weekends? Do fewer sick people seek help then and tend to wait on Mondays to go to hospitals?
I think it’s the data collectors and tabulators. Not blaming them. But, on weekends they’re short-staffed. You often see on Tuesdays especially a surge in cases and deaths, which is probably due to cases and deaths than went unreported in the weekend.
By the way, I’m a bit perplexed by the rising case fatality rate. The U.S. is still doing comparatively well at 3.8%, but it has risen steadily in the past 3 weeks, and certainly not gone down. Fauci had said in late March he expected the CFR to go down, especially with more testing. I’m a little surprised he hasn’t been asked that question at the briefings.
If you called this afternoon for testing they won’t see you to Monday night .
I know quest and labcorp are backed up. I am thinking they work on weekends but no idea if that is correct and if the staff is 100% or more. I wonder if that may be a factor for fewer weekend results ….stretching here as I could find a link
No idea it’s just what I heard from the Weymouth site .
I just heard on the late local evening tv news that this state (MA) could have the highest death toll in the nation within the next 10 days.
What exactly is going (or not) on here for such a horrifying prediction?
NY reports 8,600 deaths while MA 686. That’s not going to happen. Not even close.
Which local news did you hear that on? I watched 2 of them and didn’t hear any such thing said (Ch 5 & 4).
We are beginning to peak on average. Some states are past peak while others haven’t approached peak but as a nation, we are there. Yet, there isn’t going to be a sharp decline in the number of infected cases, morbidity rates or mortality rates. The apex is likely to last weeks before we experience noticeable improvement. Inevitably, there will be hundreds of thousands of new cases and tens of thousands additional deaths before this particular surge comes to an end. There is light ahead for all of us but not before darkness imprisons is for just a little while longer. Hang in there.
New C-19 post is up.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Good morning all as US tops 500,000 cases now.
Not to the peak yet and that’s still probably a little way off…
yup. I think US may top a million cases before all is said and done. Hope not, but looking that way.
This came across my FB feed. Wow
“I’m at work and they just called code Rocky and started playing the Rocky theme song. Me and the other guy in the hall look at each other like WTH?! A nice woman explains…
When a COVID-19 patient is well enough to go home they call a “CODE ROCKY”
They called 3 today!!
This is what my heart needed. ❤️
Thank you Baystate Heathcare workers for making a difference!”
I’m adding a thank you toALL healthcare workers.
Thanks, TK…
Thanks also, as always, for your very kind words about teachers.
Vicki and TK,
Tom, JPD’s daughter and I are going to hire you as our agents when it’s time for contract negotiations!
You gotta see this! Your laugh for the day!
Teachers in 2026:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0AyAZF7AJM
That’s funny … and maybe partially true 😛
LOL. Love this. And I’ll volunteer my services. I think teachers should be as valued as doctors, etc. They are helping raise and educate our children
I am not an epidemiologist. But, I have no doubt viral load plays a role, given the tremendous toll this disease has taken on medical professionals. See link below for the 19 NHS medical professionals who have died so far during the pandemic. Also, I found out that 21 NYPD (2 detectives and 19 police officers) have died. All these public servants are soldiers.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52242856?
U.S. has now surpassed Italy for coronavirus deaths. 🙁
This already may be old news but I just received this info from my phone.
Not old, just happened.
Bound to happen. Italy 60 mil population. USA 320 mil population.
Visualization of the deaths up until a couple days ago really drives the point home: https://youtu.be/x_wZQ8fVIwQ
Holy Crap Batman. That puts things into perspective, doesn’t it. Wow!
Thanks for sharing.
Found this site wanted to share: http://masscorona.info/
Excellent. Thank you.
When all is said and done I believe the U.S. will wind up with ~50% of the world’s cases and ~33% of the world’s deaths. Not an enviable record. Already at ~30% and ~20%, respectively, and rising. Wildcard is what happens in countries like Brazil where cases are increasing significantly.
Flattening the curve has occurred in parts of the country, which is really good. It means the healthcare system won’t be overwhelmed in those areas. However, it’s important to keep in mind that the distribution curve of new daily cases has tended to be right-skewed, fat-tailed, and elongated. All you need to do is review Italy, Spain, and France and check new daily cases and deaths as a lagging indicator. There, they’ve been plateauing for several weeks more or less. I’m hoping to see a real and consistent drop-off soon. Alas, this hasn’t happened yet. This means we have a long way to go, especially given the fact that we’re coming down from peak values of 30-35k new daily cases! There will be continued pressure on the healthcare system. Manageable, but still. And, it’ll be a lengthy period of time before we can say we’ve beaten back the virus.
I do think states like Vermont, Maine, Idaho, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, Alaska, etc … can return to relatively normalcy soon, so long as residents there are urged not to travel to states or locales with numerous cases (like Massachusetts), and vice versa, of course.
Final CV note for the day, once again I’m seeing the weekend effect. Among others, Michigan’s numbers do not make sense to me, just like NJ’s last Sunday. I’d like to believe the rather precipitous drop-off in cases and deaths. But, I’m very skeptical. Same applies to Louisiana, Florida, and Texas. Perhaps second batches of data are forthcoming. But, the numbers for these states are under-reported today for sure.
U.S. isn’t alone in data issues. Countries like the U.K. report at 2pm on weekdays, but at 9:30am on weekends (at least Saturday). So, any 24 hour data collection is going to appear skewed. U.K. may not have wanted to see a 1,000 plus deaths day, so they just stopped counting by 9:30am this morning. Yes, I can be cynical.
More deaths in NY today than yesterday. Not good,
Lagging indicator, though. Still, it’s not good.
Notice how NY has also changed its reporting of deaths, which I’m not pleased about from a data analysis perspective. NY now only reports one batch of deaths data, but two batches of cases.
One thing we’ve got to do is make data reporting more consistent.
By the way, I’m grateful to Dr. S for the graphs he posted yesterday for Massachusetts. I learned quite a bit from that.
Yes, I see what you mean. But we have to deal with what we
have.
Cases and deaths down.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-11-2020/download
Numbers are up considerably from last Saturday.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-4-2020/download
Thanks Coastal !
Positivity rate has increased the past week, from under 30% last Saturday to above 30% today.
1,000 less tests today from yesterday.
This is good news, but I just caution that it is the weekend. I expect much lower tomorrow. Let’s see what Monday and Tuesday bring. Hopefully a continued
downward trend.
Increase of cases since yesterday 1,886 . The positive test ratio for all labs is 30.0% today up from 27.4% yesterday .There are 2,120 total hospitalizations up from 1,747. There have been 59 new deaths in long term care facilities , bringing the total to 306 deaths . Overall there were 87 new covid -19 related deaths bringing the total to 686. 22,860 positive cases in mass, an increase of 1,886 since yesterday.
Todays Charts
https://imgur.com/a/JQUNThR
Thanks JpDave !
I’m surprised by the 2nd graph ……..
The surge into the 1,000s of cases per day April 2nd thru April 5th makes sense to me. Go back 10 days to 2 weeks and that’s only near the end of the first week of social distancing.
Now, this new surge the past 3 days, to me is worrisome combined with positivity rates of 30% or higher. This matches to the end of the 2nd week of social distancing, which has to mean widespread asympotomatic cases spreading to those in close proximity to others and spreading efficiently.
And here is the Doc’s link that had been updated for today. This link is awesome.
http://masscorona.info/
COVID-19 Full data chart: https://imgur.com/a/Rd2MCkh
This is really good. Thanks. Do have a link to the site OR Are you grabbing charts and making like a collage?
Why do the numbers “go down” on weekends? Do fewer sick people seek help then and tend to wait on Mondays to go to hospitals?
I think it’s the data collectors and tabulators. Not blaming them. But, on weekends they’re short-staffed. You often see on Tuesdays especially a surge in cases and deaths, which is probably due to cases and deaths than went unreported in the weekend.
By the way, I’m a bit perplexed by the rising case fatality rate. The U.S. is still doing comparatively well at 3.8%, but it has risen steadily in the past 3 weeks, and certainly not gone down. Fauci had said in late March he expected the CFR to go down, especially with more testing. I’m a little surprised he hasn’t been asked that question at the briefings.
If you called this afternoon for testing they won’t see you to Monday night .
I know quest and labcorp are backed up. I am thinking they work on weekends but no idea if that is correct and if the staff is 100% or more. I wonder if that may be a factor for fewer weekend results ….stretching here as I could find a link
No idea it’s just what I heard from the Weymouth site .
I just heard on the late local evening tv news that this state (MA) could have the highest death toll in the nation within the next 10 days.
What exactly is going (or not) on here for such a horrifying prediction?
NY reports 8,600 deaths while MA 686. That’s not going to happen. Not even close.
Which local news did you hear that on? I watched 2 of them and didn’t hear any such thing said (Ch 5 & 4).
We are beginning to peak on average. Some states are past peak while others haven’t approached peak but as a nation, we are there. Yet, there isn’t going to be a sharp decline in the number of infected cases, morbidity rates or mortality rates. The apex is likely to last weeks before we experience noticeable improvement. Inevitably, there will be hundreds of thousands of new cases and tens of thousands additional deaths before this particular surge comes to an end. There is light ahead for all of us but not before darkness imprisons is for just a little while longer. Hang in there.
New C-19 post is up.