Sunday Forecast

66 Comments

8:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)
For those celebrating Easter today in whatever limited way you can do it, you will find some very nice weather to accompany any outside activity, although it does start out chilly this morning before warming up nicely. There will be a breeze at times and some variable cloud cover at times, especially this afternoon. These clouds we see today are the forerunners of a storm system that is going to impact the region in a significant way Monday with rain and wind. There is the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially in the afternoon. These should occur in pockets rather than in a widespread fashion, as it’s the type of set-up that very strong winds are blowing from the south above the ground, and pockets of heavier rain can push some of these winds down to the surface, creating powerful gusts. Wind damage and power outages will certainly be a problem in some locations. Quick improvement comes Tuesday, a breezy but still very mild day behind the departing system. But colder air quickly moves in at night and the front that brings it will sit just to the south of the region while a wave of low pressure moves along it, turning Wednesday into a chilly and unsettled day, although the current indications are that precipitation from that low pressure wave would be mostly light and over southern locations – something to keep an eye on. Nevertheless, the atmosphere has another disturbance it will throw at us from the west later Thursday when a few rain and even snow showers may occur with chilly air in place.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Occasional heavier showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind S increasing to sustained 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations with gusts over 40 MPH interior and over 50 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations. Isolated gusts of over 50 MPH possible interior areas and over 60 MPH possible coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain and possible mix, favoring southern areas. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible especially late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)
Temperatures below normal. Will have to watch for a couple precipitation threats from passing waves of low pressure. The main threats are late April 17 that may include mix/snow, and April 20 that would be a rain situation.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)
Temperatures near to below normal. Risk of unsettled weather favoring the April 22-24 window. Drier weather at the end of the period.

66 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So you’re not biting on the NAM, GFS and HRRR projections of wind gusts??

    More in line with the 3KM NAM and even somewhat less? Are you thinking along
    the lines of what WxWatcher posted yesterday? Just curious to know your reasons.

    I presume you think that for the most part, the strongest winds will NOT mix
    down to ground level.

    Thank you.

    1. Wow! My Mid-Atlantic relatives are right in the thick of it. I’ll check on them later in the week.

  5. Tweets from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan tomorrow
    Extent of wind damage tomorrow will be highly dependent on how much we warm up. Widespread gusts of 55-65 mph seem like a good bet now. If temperatures climb over 65F even higher gusts are possible as it will be easier to mix down higher momentum from aloft.

    Before we get carried away posting ECMWF wind gust graphics – there are a lot of assumptions that go into that product. Looking at a sounding is definitely the better way to go.

  10. Latest 12Z HRRR, wind gusts in knots for 18Z tomorrow or 2 PM.

    https://imgur.com/a/dYczWbq

    50 knots = 57.5 mph
    55 knots = 63.3 mph
    60 knots = 69 mph
    65 knots = 74.8 mph
    70 knots = 80.6 mph

    The whole area is basically in 57-80 mph. Windy enough, no?

    1. I should mentioned, with the caveats mentioned above in tweets from
      Ryan Hanrahan posted by JJ

  12. Oh Boy, 12Z NAM seems to be even more robust with winds with 60+ mph gusts
    beginning as early as noon. Maps to come….

    1. https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=028

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=029

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=030

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=031

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=032

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2020041212&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=033

  13. One of our meteorologist last night in CT was saying when you get the winds to 57 mph or greater that is when could start seeing bigger issues with more trees power lines coming down.

  14. Thanks TK, happy Easter to all celebrating!

    Going to be a very active couple of days over the eastern half of the US. I largely agree with the numbers TK has suggested for SNE. I think it’s going to be too stable in the lowest levels to realize more widespread 60-80mph gusts. More like a lot of gusts 35-50 with a few 50-60’s. It’s an uncomfortable forecast, however. We can’t entirely rule out 70-80mph gusts in the coastal plain; there’s a big difference between that and 50-60mph. Especially considering these will be southerly/southwesterly winds, which is not the normal direction to get those winds from and may exacerbate impacts. So yes, I’m a little concerned mainly because the ceiling potential is very high.

    I remain more concerned about things down this way, both in terms of synoptic wind and severe weather potential. We could get rocked tomorrow.

    1. Hang in there and do what you do best. Always appreciate your added input to this blog and most happy that you continue to contribute while you are
      working down there.

      2. Those gusts are in knots, so if anything I suspect that is overdone for a lot of places at least in terms of the widespread coverage of 60+ mph winds. Model wind gust maps are like snow maps. There’s a lot of assumptions that go into making them, so use with a lot of caution and skepticism.

  15. I am going to go back to what Ryan Hanrahan said that if the temperature goes above 65 degrees higher wind gusts are possible than the widespread 55mph – 65 mph wind gusts which he think is a good bet right.

  17. With the SPC showing a 10% tornado chances for parts of VA NC SC I think will see some tornado watches in those areas tomorrow.

  18. Thanks, TK, as always!
    Happy Easter!

    I see that a Trampoline Watch was just issued for Sutton, Vicki! 🙂

    Enjoy a special and wonderful day, y’all! 🙂

    1. Happy Easter to you, Captain. It is an amazing Easter Sunday weatherwise

      Ha on trampoline watch. I am worried or more accurately a wreck. Son in law put pavers in the legs and we do have trampoline stakes on this one but wind is from same direction as last time

  19. Thanks TK!
    Happy Easter to all who celebrate!
    Be glad that Easter is today because that wind is going to blow the Hare around tomorrow! 😉

  20. High pollen count today and serious pollen count on Tuesday for Boston. Tomorrow, as you would imagine, pollen count will be low.

  21. From Norton NWS discussion this morning…

    all other guidance sources have highs Mon afternoon
    well into the 60s and possibly near 70 from BDL-BOS! This will
    result in a deeper boundary layer, promoting stronger winds aloft to
    mix to the surface. GFS bufkit soundings better depict this than the
    NAM. Thus if model soundings are adjusted for surface temps in the
    60s Mon afternoon, this will support wind gust potential of 60 mph
    to possibly as high as 70 mph across the entire region.

  22. Happy Easter, I’m thinking of this today, if it was not for current events I would not be with my family

  26. NWS did not want to convert the high wind watch to a warning just yet…

    So in a nutshell the wind threat remains
    high and will therefore continue the high wind watch for the entire
    region. Did consider upgrading to a warning but still 36+ hours
    away and models could trend differently given how widespread
    convection is with evolving system over TX into the MS Valley.

  27. Events like tomorrow are why it’s so important for meteorologists to have a *very* thorough understanding of how to interpret a forecast sounding. IMO it’s the most useful skill in our analysis toolbox. Model wind gusts maps are highly dubious. There are blatantly obvious errors happening tomorrow where 50-70 kt wind gusts are being printed out at the surface with massive low level inversions in place. Won’t happen unless we get significantly more warming than most of the models are showing.

    I would not want to be working at BOX during this event though. I have a strong suspicion this will under-perform on winds in most of SNE, but the ceiling potential is so high that even if it’s a low probability you can’t ignore it. Hard to message. So far I think they’re doing a good job.

    1. I could not have said that any better. I just told my brother (who is concerned for a tree near his house) that most areas will probably under-perform model forecasts and that the strongest gusts will be isolated. But the potential is high, so we cannot just ignore it either.

      You’ll have that whole segment of folks that label the forecasts as wrong because they looked at a map and focused on the top wind speed of the potential. They should be thankful if they don’t see it…

        1. I don’t think rainfall amounts are going to be much of an issue at all, to be honest, outside of brief ponding on roads during heavier downpours.

      2. Is this your brother in Manchester CT?

        I don’t like seeing that Euro map with 75-80 mph winds in Tolland County. Even cut 10-15 mph off those and that is going to do some damage. I am up on a hill so its always windier here than many other areas. Not to mention, cant afford a power outage tomorrow…working from home and have a crap load to get done!

        1. My brother lives next to a “mountain” but he’s in a partial valley so that should help. But there are a lot of trees around there.

    3. the entire season has sucked and ski country now is getting good snows, I would not have mind if I was still in the Caribbean but since its happening and I am now here, I want to grab my skis

  29. High Wind Warning now up.
    I just thought about all of those Covid-19 tents up everywhere in the region!!! Yikes!!!

  30. Captain you were mentioning about tents. NWS Upton, NY mentions secured tents in their impacts for High Wind Warning.
    IMPACTS…Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
    Even sturdy and well secured tent structures could be damaged.
    Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
    especially for high profile vehicles

  32. Awful tornado event ongoing in southern Mississippi. Two violent tornadoes have taken a very similar track over that area in the past hour or so, and remain on the ground. There is good reason to believe at least one of them was likely an EF-5. If so, it would be the first in the CONUS in nearly 7 years. This SPC mesoscale discussion was incredible.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0360.html

    1. The US has been in a fairly long tornado drought.

      These are pretty nasty looking storms, two of the more impressive ones I have seen in a while (from radar perspective). We certainly saw these conditions coming so I hope people were on the alert and ready to act. When that happens even with devastating storms we can still have life loss minimal, even zero.

  33. TK – what is your thinking of “underperforming” potential based on the latest guidance and the NWS map which looks upgraded from yesterday.

  34. My laugh of the day the 18z NAM showing a little bit of snow on Wed. This would be something tropical storm force wind gusts to a bit of snow two days later.

    1. Accumulating snow on the 6Z run.

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020041306/057/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

      Kucerha

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020041306/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      10:1 not so much for accumulation, but idea of how much snow in the air.

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2020041306/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      of course sun angle is high and ground is warm, so I wouldn’t expect even as much as the Kuchera, but NAM would have snow in the air. GFS and EURO keep it South.

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