The Week Ahead (October 17-23)

31 Comments

11:51PM

An active pattern will continue with plenty of changes during the week ahead. Despite the action, we will see a fair amount of good weather!

Here’s the breakdown:

Monday… Low pressure that gave us the windy weekend is still spinning over eastern Canada and will produce a gusty breeze but fairly mild temperatures. Showers that move through in the overnight hours will be gone by dawn and so will most of the clouds, with only a few clouds during the day.

Tuesday…A complex area of low pressure developing to the west and south of New England will start to send clouds into the region. Earlier, I thought there could be some rain breaking out well in advance of this system, but current indications are that it will remain dry during the day.

Wednesday…A storm system riding up the East Coast will pull plenty of tropical moisture into it and produce a healthy amount of rain. Minor flooding is possible.

Thursday…The storm will be on its way out, but will continue to influence the region with gusty winds, a sun/cloud mix, and a risk of a shower. Cooler air will still be back to the west and northwest so this day will be mild.

Friday…Low pressure continues to move away, high pressure moves in, and a gusty breeze blows between the 2 systems, pulling chilly air into New England.

Weekend…High pressure should be in control with beautiful Autumn weather.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy.  Showers moving through west to east then ending by dawn. Low 51-56. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 64-69. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 61-66. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy.  Rain likely. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 58.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

31 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (October 17-23)”

  1. Thanks for the update TK……..Looks like the long range 0z GFS has tempered the intensity of cold air in Canada in its extended outlook.

  2. TK, thank you for the update. Could you please get out your meteorological crystal ball and comment a little more on this Gulf of Mexico low — possible TS Rina? I “thought” I heard on BZ that it might combine with a midwest low and strengthen further. (Admittedly I was drinking wine at the time.)

  3. Thanks TK

    Wind just picked up here big time. Lovely blue sky with billowy white clouds! How’s that for meteorological-ese 🙂

      1. John wait until Christmas. I am a Peter Pan wanna be and I’m also the first outside when it’s dark on Christmas Eve to start watching for santas sleigh. I actually think it all ties into weather. There is a special magic about all of it

  4. Joe mentioned on his morning blog that if this were winter, we would be facing a major snowstorm for Wednesday. Regardless, it is going to be a horrible day to be outside. Glad this storm is going to be very progressive. If this were going to be a typical “3-day nor’easter” we would be inundated with major flooding.

  5. I remember Henry Margusity saying a few months ago that watch the pattern in September and October because that could be a clue of what is in store for the upcoming winter.

    1. I don’t agree with Henry on that one, and particularly this year. September is not usually a good predictor of winter. October can be, but November is often more believable.

  7. TK any new thoughts on Paris forecast for Thursday through Monday. Looking at GFS it’s holding rain off until next, but not sure how accurate that is with timing for Europe. I also see chilly air on Friday but a big earmo up for sat-monday time frame ie mid 60’s?

    Thanks

    1. “Earmo”. Is that Elmo’s cousin?

      I believe the GFS is doing a better job than the Euro is for Europe. Go figure.

      I think you will see 5 dry days. Mid 50s for highs the first 3 days, mid 60s the last 2. The middle day, Saturday, may feature more in the way of clouds in response to the warming coming in at high levels first, before the surface warms the next day.

    1. Hahaha. I love it and sadly that’s exactly how I read it. I wonder if the auto correct is creating an entirely new language.

  10. It is mostly cloudy out but it still seems bright. It seems like the sun wants to come out. Actually, the light is rather pretty. It’s like the season is still trying to hold onto summer but the fall is winning out. I really like tracking the summer storms – probably more than winter storms. Nonetheless, I am looking forward to tracking the snowstorms. I am looking forward to the first snowfall, which I predict will be sometime in early to mid-Nov. in the Boston area. It seems a little far-fetched now, especially with the mild temperatures we have been having. I forget what some of you have predicted (if you have) as when we might get the first snows.

  11. Coastal – just re-read the post and saw your post re: Accuweather’s forecast for snow on Nov. 1st. I wonder if that snow will affect Boston area.

  13. I hope tomorrow’s storm is an omen for what the winter has in store for us. Too bad this was not December, January, or February because this could have given quite a dumping of snow.

  14. So far this late summer/early fall the trough has remained well to our west, just to the west of the Appalacians. If this trough were over us or just to our east I would be more confident of good snows for us this winter. Unless this changes, the “omen” I see for now is that the Midwest would see the big snows and we in SNE especially would only see occasional snows with more “mixed” (snow to rain) events. I still believe, however, that much of NNE will see a good snowy winter for the most part.

    TK and others…am I interpreting this correctly for the most part?

    1. When the ocean water temperatures go down, and parts of the country build a snow pack, the troughing will be able to set up or move more to the east. Systems in the atmosphere want to travel where there is the least resistance, and right now, that would be in the mid-west. (Our ocean waters cause quite a bit of resistance)
      That’s my two cents, not sure if this is 100% true though.

    2. I don’t think October 2011 is an omen month for winter anyway, so I don’t think it matters where the trough axis is. This is a regime completely different to the one that will establish itself for the first part of winter.

  15. For those interested in seeing some snow…check out the Barrow, Alaska Webcam…not any ice yet in the arctic ocean in the background.

    I’m not ready for snow yet. Usually, I am excited for snow around December and then after one time of driving in it, shoveling it and having to scrape it off my car, I am frustrated by it. Hit March 1st and I want it gone with a warm shot of weather. 🙂

    The sun is out in a clear sky south of Boston and the temps down here are closing in on 70F.

  16. About the Accuweather forecasts…I don’t put much stock into any of their forecasts outside of 10 days.

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